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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just that one line there makes it silly to strongly favor an east based event at this early juncture IMO....who knows, maybe east based events are going by the wayside due to climate change, since we blame it for everything else. Never mind the fact that this event isn't evolving in the same fashion as other powerhouse east based events. How anyone can conclude that modoki is off of the table based upon that is beyond me. Maybe it gives you pause, sure....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I had to guess, I would say like 1.5 to 1.7 ONI basin wide event...but I do think this is going to have a strong westward tug its sleeve.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do not.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Surprising that 1945-1946 featured above normal snowfall in Boston...wouldn't have guessed that. El nino must have been weak if it was east based in order to allow that much blocking.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my point....region 1.2 is so volatile that there isn't a ton of value inferring too much about next winter from its current behavior....it probably makes a true modoki pretty unlikely, but that eastern flank is very volatile. Here is last November: Compared to January: Consensus was also pretty emphatic that it remain east-based and whiffed at like 1-2 months lead....so, good luck declaring east based in April.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I factor everything in....it wasn't a total fluke that snowfall underperformed my expectations in most of SNE and it was warmer than forecast. There were issues that I will assess and then grade the work accordingly...all I am saying is it isn't as bad as SNE snowfall would make it appear.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Topics will be dead until at least July...aside from a rouge system here of there. I'll be good to go by then.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll do this is either May or June....after I do my seasonal post-mortem.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The snowfall portion of the outlook was clearly flawed in a major way for the majority of SNE...not all, but most of the area. Would not debate that. All I am saying is that there are many other factors to consider rather than snowfall for SNE and on a grander scale, the work was not nearly as bad as it appears.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you don't know how to formulate one, I wouldn't expect you to have any clue on how to properly assess an outlook, so this isn't surprising. Hope you enjoyed your March 2012.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't done that yet....but it will be higher than that for the season. My seasonal outlook encompasses more than how much snow falls at 990' in Tolland, CT.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't really mean much right now....like I said, la nina was really east based last year until like late November.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even Dec 1997 had a one of the more remarkable events of my life on 12/23/97....Just west of me in Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour. Those potent STJs can do some crazy thing even in an overall hostile envt.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the good news is that a best match in April often doesn't ultimately prove very relevant.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is the season....it was def. a west lean. When I go through this summer, I will probably call it basin wide, but it def has a west lean.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The people writing these scholarly articles are human beings, as well....its okay to not agree with everything that is read. I feel like sometimes people need to be reminded of that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the research is wrong IMO. I don't feel like reading it right now, but many of those articles have really rigid criteria for determining classification, such as precise evolution.....really all we care about is how the event acted during the winter, and that was definitely not east based.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same page.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure there is less margin for error with respect to temps relative to decades ago, the furhter south you go...not really news, IMO. But I will still take my chances with that pattern more often than not....2008-2009 and 2010-2011 are some more recent examples.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    '86-'87 wasn't east based...it was basin wide with a slight west lean.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    There have always been smaller periods of ENSO triggered PDO that opposed the prevailing multidimensional decadal signal. decadal signal...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except that was during +PDO multi decadal cycle..but you're right. I was gonna say that earlier. The 80s didn't have much blocking...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it just gave us that smaller period of +PDO with a multidecadal +PDO regime. The 1960s were predominately negative PDO...so we can have good winters with negative PDO, especially in NE. I feel like people are going to get carried away with that after this last year....that was very extreme, which is why it screwed us.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pattern wasn't too dissimilar from this past season, minus the two big episodes of NAO blocking.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually, it wasn't...maybe just an active storm track muted the warmth because it was pretty wet. Some cold probably couldn't help but bleed east behind the lows, too.
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