40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Maybe some do, some don't?
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I've never seen him snap before His sled must have broke
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Its actually good continuity with 00z given the range.
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You've finally contracted the Nogueira virus
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That is like a White Juan outcome just south of NS....like 3'+ with probably blizz of '78 like wind.
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That is a vicious gradient in that system...that would also be a disruptive wind event were it to ever matrialize fast enough.
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27mb drop in 12 hours......not bad.
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Yes, it will phase, but my money says that it will be downstream from us due to that orientation out west.
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Yes, that period around the 24th has a simple, traditonal PNA ridge....where as the period circa the 20th is afflicted with that same, hemispheric scale virus of a configuration that has plagued this whole season....with that sw-ne smeared ridge just off of the west coast, and a deep low over the CONUS, which is why guidance keeps trying to phase back east but the atmosphere just never succeeds in doing so.
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You can see difference out west between the ICON and GFS...much better ridge on the ICON.
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You know damn well the moment we get the higher western ridge probe, it will insidiously be offset with more compression back east.
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It's always close....they never track over Hispanola.
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That is the point, though..TBH, I think his odds are reasonable, but there was no need for that clickbait post yet.
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Yea, I hovered at like 26-27 with sleet and you were just above freezing....your obs are how I knew where the CF was.
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Hopefully I get the sleet bomb...will be close.
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I was going to say...I highly doubt Mark avoids sleet.
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Eh...more to it than that, but sort of.
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I realized that the pattern out west looks similar to other failed attempts....I fell for it back in January, and started to here.
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This is why these big east coast storms are mirages that dissapear at closer lead times....its a sign of a flaw in the hemispheric construct this season. I'll bet this one will keep everyone scrambling for the needle on the street corner until about Tuesday, when it becomes apparent it will either fail entirely, or be a nusiance ordeal.
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I think the 24th has a better shot as it stands now, as it doesn't look to have that issue...ridege is still a bit too far west, but its better.
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That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar?
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It will probably find a way to fail.
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I think my First Call is probably about a worst case right now.
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I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches.
