Major Storm Threat Next Week Likely to Yield More Bark Than Bite
Recurrent Pattern Renders Major New England Strike Unlikely
Tropical Constructive Interference with Pole Triggers Major Storm Threat
Last weekend it was explained that the MJO would be moving out of the Maritime Continent, which is where it currently is as this weekend's system tracks inland, and into phase 8 towards mid month.
The implication of this is that the tropics would begin to constructively interfere with the disturbed polar domain from approximately mid month onward.
Guidance has began to reflect this, as ridging begins to build out west behind a departing Pacific wave that is forecast to eventually phase with one of the split polar vortex lobes. beneath the negative NAO block.
Guidance is in good agreement on the overall pattern next week, which bares striking similarities to a major storm threat from January
Redux of January PNA Ridge Structure Likely to Yield Similarly Flawed Phase
The modeled 500mb pattern on the European ensemble mean at first glance appears immensely ominous next week, which is why many media outlets have already began to sound the alarms on a "historic blizzard" potential.
However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th.
This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures.
In the instance of the storm threat from last month, there was a significant amount of guidance that phased the systems very well, which yield a blizzard throughout the forecast area. However, that of course did not happen, as the phase was very "ragged" and the region ended up with a light to moderate snowfall. There is strong ensemble consensus in this pattern taking shape once again, as the GFS and Canadien ensemble mean both strongly supported the previously posted European ensemble mean.
This lends support to the notion that the storm system next week is unlikely to affect the region with anything more than a light to moderate snowfall, given that the position and orientation of the ridge out west is likely to hinder the eventual phasing attempt over the eastern US.
Stay tuned for a potential First Call on Monday night-
