40/70 Benchmark

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

God, I love June weather dialogue....

49.5 last night.

This is why I have been quietly cheer it on.....nothing we can do about the dews, but the smoke may cap the heat a bit.

I think last winter was a sign of change, but its probably going to be an incremental, two steps forward, one step backwards kind of deal. ...

I had a quick hitting 7"er very late xmas eve into early Xmas AM 2017.

Simlar totals, but December 1996 occureed over two successive events in close proximity....Dec 1997 was just one event. The follow up one in Dec 1996 was mainly rain on the coastal plane.

I would love to get a slow moving HECS that breaks out around noon on Xmas eve and rages into Xmas night....been teased a couple of times, but no dice.

The only redealming event that I had that season was a couple of days before Xmas....there was an explosive storm on 12/23/97 that produced insane rates and dropped 1-2' around the area. Ayer, MA has 8" in one hour.

I had about normal snowfall in 82-83, in large part thanks to the Megalopolis system.

Yea, 45.1 here, too.

I was speaking of that winter in a NE US context, but it makes sense that it wasn't as bad in the GL region....that set up isn't as hostile there.

Yes, the winter overall sucked. You are in the mid atl, I assume?

Yes, but it was more widespread in that system because it was occluded, so there was just narrow area near the coast that got creamed under the low level deformation.

I don't think strong El Ninos are the catalyst for global warming, rather I just think global warming manifests most prominetly during high-end warm ENSO events.

PD II was just bad luck...I was in a subsidence area of around a foot.

It will never end well in the NE US for fans of winter when you have death-star vortex INVO Alaska and the Bering Sea...never has, never will...I don't care which climate era you are in.

Eh....the Xmas event occured later in the Xmas day and was heavily tained with IP for me, and I got crewed in PD II. That winter was good, but left a lot on the table.

This would have been a slightly cooler shitty winter in 1898-1899...people get carried away with the CC crap. It was a bad pattern, regardless of the warming climate. +WPO/+EPO/+AO+NAO/-PNA/-PDO and a strong modoki La Nina, but sure...lets focus on CC. That season was an instruction manual on how to avert winter in the NE US.

It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked.

That's a general 3/4" to an inch or rainfall....I mean, what has happened to us when that isn't considered awful on a Saturday

I agree with all of this.

February 1983 Megalopolis event was very good for my area (about 18"), but January 2016 was a fringe job....I got like 2" of pixie dust. Too bad the southeast ridging wasn't as strong in this "new climate" as it was back in 1983 ; )

For my current location, you can probably exchange 1995-1996 for 2000-2001...my area now did much worse in the Jan 7, 1996 blizzard and much better in the March 5, 2001 event than my former locale.