40/70 Benchmark

What would that be? My mean snowfall since 2015 is right about at 60", and we just saw record snowfall all throughout the south. I think you need to accept reality even when it doesn't fit neatly within your agenda. Sorry. CC is real, but zealots like yourself are prone to fantastic over attribution. Fact, not opinion.

+7.5" 25.5"

Either that, or we're simply still regressing after a robust couple of decades. This becomes much more viable if we're still doing this in about 7-8 years. Here is a crazy, fantastic notion right out of a sci fi novel....perhaps exotic storms and seasons don't grow on trees?? Imagine?

7.5"

5.5"

3" Moderate snow

I'll take my chances on a net-gainer at my latitude.

Well, okay then...take the -PNA and run.

The very last thing I want is a gradient over the pike region while I hear the CT chorus telling me how great it looks.

December 2022.

Right, but this isn't March 2023....I'll take my chances with a -PNA where I am, as opposed to a "perfect" pattern. I'll will take primary issues over confluence issues.

Maybe for NYC, but it looks fine for this area....give me the -PNA, especially after January.

The initial 700mb fronto band to the south of CT begins to weaken and translate north as it moves eastward.

Looks as though pubes on the head?

I love Stu Ostro as a meteorologist, but dude has never had a good hair day in his life-

That was back before I understood what mid level deformation was....I remember I kept waiting for that CT band to comes east and it never did. Ended up with about 16"...

Man, TWC is back....watching it today, love these top ten event series....

Sig worthy....

We already knew not all of these were going to work out, random deterministic orgie runs not withstanding....

Final Call for Weekend Snows No Major Changes to Forecast Synoptic Overview: There are no significant changes to the synoptic forecast overview from First Call on Thursday. The next in a succession of northern stream impulses is approaching the area this weekend. The primary difference with this system relative to many of the disturbances that we have dealt with this season is that it is actually intensifying slightly on approach, as opposed to shearing out. This is due at least in part to the Alaskan ridge growing in amplitude, which in turn lowers heights downstream and allows the wave to "dig" a bit on approach. Expected Storm Evolution: Snowfall will overspread this area quickly this evening from west-southwest to east-northeast, rapidly becoming heavy over southwestern New England, where very heavy bands become established later this evening. This will represent one potential area of somewhat higher snowfall totals across the region. Some mixing with rain over the outer cape and islands will cut down on accumulations in those locales. The other area of subtle enhancement will be to the north, as the banding to the south weakens a bit as it translates eastward, and the best lift focuses north Sunday morning. This will become evident in radar imagery as the morning progresses and echoes over especially the south half of the area rapidly weaken. However, snowfall will be more tenacious to the north of the developing m id level low, throughout the route two region, which will prolong the storm and allow this area to catch up a bit with the southern zone of enhancement. Drier air will end the snowfall more quickly to the south, as any rain rapidly transitions back to snowfall before ending on the cape and islands early Sunday afternoon. Final Call: First Call Issued Thursday February 6th.

Final Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/final-call-for-weekend-snows.html

I'll take a final look at this tomorrow, but shouldn't be any big changes.

But I thought we knew stein would last all winter when fall was dry?

Verification for Messy Thursday Fairly Strong Forecast Here is the reality versus the forecast for the messy Thursday, weak storm system that impacted the region yesterday. The mid level warmth was slightly more aggressive than implied in the forecast, so the 1-3" area would have been better represented by a coating to 2" range, and the 2-4" maximum area to the north should have been 1-3". The slight glaze did indeed materialize towards the end of the event across a large majority of the area, as expected. Final Grade: A-

A- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/verification-for-messy-thursday.html