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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see backing off of the ACE correlations that are applicable during La Niña, but I would certainly be skewing most aspects of a seasonal outlook towards cool ENSO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....they have been too warm all summer.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a start-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh....case en point, John.....even this image of an ostensibly favorable pattern breaks your "Miami rule" of greater than 580dm heights.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    True. It will be interesting to analyze how we "thread the needle", so to speak the next time the east coast scores on a grander scale.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand the limitations of these data at this range, but I don't disagree.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any interest in this?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will be interesting to see how strong the SE ridge is when we manage to get a robust -AO/NAO/EPO/WPO, +PNA combo. My guess is there won't be one.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You would be suprised how many meteorologists are relatively useless on a seasonal level.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    2021-2022 ended up okay for most, but more often than not you are right.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wife is from Uganda and has family there....she is orchestrating the construction and managing it...I've just assisted by procuring the funding.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be great....we are just finishing up an 8 unit housing complex to fuction as an Air b & b.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably some -NAO/PNA early, +NAO/PNA in February with more blocking in March. I'll be looking at the extra tropical Pacific late this month when I return from Africa.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just hope to god its wetter for the NE or I'll plunge into the Japanese piss-pool.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't need indexes in this new, warmer climate. Just stick a thermo in the piss-pool east of Japan and call it a day. Seriously, though...I do agree that there is a ceiling on our winter potential until that changes.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is not as strongly positive as I had suspected. I'm doing a lot of seasonal work on the polar domain right now...will be interesting to see if we jive again.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is your NAO formula at currently?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don, I am thinking December-January and then again in March.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna need a colder boat-
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet the -NAO periods aren't partculary cold because the PNA/EPO will probably flip....so probably still messy events, just more favorable tracks.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This fits my early stuff precisely...+NAO with -EPO and some bouts of -AO.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there any winter correlation for having such a sustained and robust +AO/NAO this time of year?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tend to agree, but I do think it will get rather destructive.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the NE will fare better if SE Canada is cold.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean the balance of the season by "finish"....
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