40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Agree on the high end range.
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Why? I expect it.....not the type of system for high end here.
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Good luck with a full phase at an appreciably low enough latitude for a historic impact anywhere in SNE...more like NS. The look out west just begs for a messy phase.
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Was awful in the Jan 11 phasing fiasco.
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Ordinarily 8-12" wouldn't do a ton for me...but with several inches on the ground and potentially several more to come this weekend, I could work with it.
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I do doubt that the phase will be as poor as the GFS implies.
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I would't worry about it.....I think its more likely to have a gradient through the N half of the region, than I do pull a Juno.
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I guess slightly...not enough to get me excited. Agree with your last sentence.
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Yea, the GEM looks just like Juno.
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I don't really see a concerted trend towards a more proficient phase...I see ebbs and flows.
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When have we seen that before this season?
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Its all so precarious when you are reliant upon a phase with a high degree of proficiency...especially in a la nina season. I'd rather just have a northern stream bowling ball roll under LI, but I understand why at this latitude he would prefer a pure southern wave.
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Yes, exactly....need a very proficient phase to get us....the more flawed phases just nail the mid atlantic.
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Great, we jackpot in the 34 degree snizzle before they clean up next week.
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We'll see what happens....always good debating with you because you know your stuff. I just feel a high end outcome FOR US a la Jan 2015 or Jan 2005 is less likely in this instance relative to other large storm potential given the type of evolution. Hopefully a good storm, nonetheless.
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Widepread 12" is very doable....agree on that.
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That had far greater N stream contribution than s stream.
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Right, but they don't get quite far enough north....there are a couple of risks here.
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Ok, yes...very possible.
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My original point was that the ceiling is capped.
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Jan 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2005, Dec 2003, April 1997, Feb 1978, Feb 1969x2...I won't count Jan 1961 because that was pretty localized 2' amounts. All of those evolved differently form this in that they had more n stream vs s stream contribution.
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Its about MAX RATE of deepening and when H5 closes.
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Throughout our area? Sure are..plenty, they just evolve differently from this one.
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Right....hardly any are....like I said, its a spectrum. But this one has a large s stream constribution, hence the "LBSW characteristics".
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Which ones? I don't think any of those dropped widespread 2' amounts up here, which is my point. All I said was the ceiling is capped, not that there can't be a nice storm.
