40/70 Benchmark

Some of the latest guidance:

Looks like some cold to start before a flip to mild for a couple of weeks, followed by a colder and stormier look towards the holidays. This excerpt is from last week's write up, but nothing has really changed. Intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year. This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December. December Forecast H5 Composite: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall. And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite. December 2023 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010: The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England. 1991-2020: While the month should finish mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events. December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a mult-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm.

I mentioned in my write up that I like the holidays for decent storm potential per analogs.

You're never going to get a season entirely absent of se ridges....I feel like some of us are guilty of overanalyzing a surfeit of data.

Go here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/getpage/ Select: Daily Maps and Composites: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and related datasets Choose 11/1/23 to 11/17/23 to get this: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Precipitation+Rate&level=Surface&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&monr1=11&dayr1=1&monr2=11&dayr2=17&iyr[1]=2023&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

One group tormenting us with talk of how el Nino is going to continue to grow and swallow winter whole, and the other warning how the lingering la Nina base state will cancel winter. Hopefully a compromise plays nicely lol This place is a trip.

Yea, this is the draw back to launching into an endeavor of this magnitude.....its very informative, but it consumes pretty much a week of my life and its difficult for anyone to actually sit down and read. I may go back an update it to include 1979-80 in the weak composite......haven't decided yet.

Well, you are a bigger man than I am.

Well, even more irrelevant...like a dusting.

Not many care about an inch or two of slush on the hill tops of Beaver Brook in N ORH county...except for those that live there and it's simply not many, so few care. I'm sure they will reference it as it gets closer.

Almost that time of year....I'll DM you this week.

You haven't seen anything...start tying worse winters to CC...he will bite lol

You're, of course, correct, but I can't help myself.

I don't see anyone from the SNE crew that should be suspended...even snowman in the main thread I think does a good job of pulling in info. I have no issue with it....we are all human and have a vested interest one way or another.

I had enough tits last March.

All I'm saying is se Canada has been colder than recent years....I don't know about the other stuff.

That's what I was saying to Will...different vibe in the source region so far.

Need to start somewhere...I'd rather that than December 2015, but it's nothing that makes me interested. An inch of slush in Hubbardston....Booiinngggggg Some folks look at my outlook track record and say I have a cold and snow bias, but its nothing conscious... just worked out that way. I think you guys agree I am pretty objective in season don't use weenie goggles.

I'll take the under on 10:1 anywhere in Mass.

Zzzzzzzzzzz

LOL He cracked now that he realized his Soueaster is gone.

No surprise..I've maintained all along that I will need some 2.0+ dailies to hit my 1.7-1.9 forecast ONI range.

Sign me up for 1940 1947, 1956, 1960, 1983, 2004, 2007 or even 2016. ...no skin off of by b***s if that composite works out. Only three seasons in that raindance list that I would pass on.

64.2 IMBY