40/70 Benchmark

I can't think of a physical reason, aside from maybe the unfavorable Pacific not allowing the s stream to amplify enough to run the orgy all the way up the coast.

Yes.

The ONI belies the true nature of this el nino event because its an archaic metric. This is why I bombed operating under the premise of a modest el nino a few years back when in fact there was no el nino.

More evidence that this event is not going to be the juggernaut that some thought is this article that classified el nino events by their evolution and intensity. Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño (pnas.org) "Strong-Basin wide", "Moderate east pacific" and Moderate Central Pacific". Acccording to this piece, the current event is NOT a strong basin wide event, but a rather a dead-ringer for moderate-east based event in that it: 1) Followed a la nina 2) Began biased extremely east and is propagating westward. In fact, it even specifically infers that classification based soley on location of maximum anomalies would mix strong basin wide and moderate east based events. I think many are mistaking this event for a SBW when in fact, if you examine the evolution, its a moderate east based event. This is also consistent with the MEI and RONI.

The RONI is a nice provisional tool in the interim, but the ONI ultimately needs to be revisited.

I am firmly of the opinion that the ONI is a forecasting relic given the warming planet.....there needs to be higher thresholds....ie declare el nino at like 1.0 and have strong be 2.0 and super 2.5.

Mar 2010 -0.16 Feb 2010 0.25 Jan 2010 0.05 Dec 2009 -0.51

Modestly negative.

Honestly, -PDO seasons often have an area that gets screwed, but its not always the mid Atlantic....its often further north. I t could be my area.

I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream.

Never been on board for that. I'm in your camp on that range.

It should peak at moderate IMO.

Man, what a shitty day...

Sad day....lost a friend of over 20 years late last night/early this AM....got a sinking feeling when his brother called me on my way to work. Just brutal.

Hopefully not.

5.2" will do, but a jack, nonetheless....a CJ of water lol

True, though I was close this AM.....balmy first half of October, nonetheless.

Yea, first half of October is indian summer.

Yes, but its getting close with no end in sight. And I will do the honors myself.

Honest to god...I hope it continues because from about here on out, I am all eyes and ears for winter to tip its hand. There are going to be precip type issues, but just give me coastals.

Agree all around.

Yea, that incorporation of GW into the background of these analogs is tacit AFAIC...I am on record as not debating that point.

I think 2001 was a decent analog last season and I wish I gave it more weight in the mean than I did..it was one of my better sensible weather matches.

Thanks. I honestly didn't know...like I said, I only look back to 1950. I only mentioned 1925 because snowman and Paul Roundy mentioned it as a very good analog for this el nino, which they perceive as being a classic east based event.

Maybe 1925 also meets that criteria...IDK. I only consider back to 1950.