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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.71" for the month will do it.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the Canadian is wrong for January with the loss of the blocking, but there should be a thaw, so maybe that skews things if its long enough and timed correctly.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Opposed to the later CFS with more blocking.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is essentially what I went with...even if the slightly colder risk wins out, it shouldn't be too far off....CPC is on the same page, as well.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I could see that....like 1987, which is also a good analog, but I select two week windows of time, so still would be a pretty good call from that lead time.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like don't "don't go cold"....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    SSW between Xmas and 1/8.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great chance of that for you IMO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    George, that was actually good analysis......very objective and level-headed....be skeptical of colder evolutions until the jet slows...all blocking does is prevent December 2015 and keep the warmth from being absolutely prohibitive to threats.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is minor.... I'm talking maybe normal instead of +1 to +2, but blocking alone won't dramatically alter things because the PAC jet will be active until at least the later third of the month or so.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, the tone of the update is to simply imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blocking. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Update on December and what it may entail for the rest of the winter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/december-preseason-impressions-appear.html
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could def see a thaw in mid January, but not concerned about the season. January may need to average + for forecast to work.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe a slightly more negative NAO and colder December.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly feel as though my primary concern is busting too positive on the seasonal NAO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never drive with the windows down, so maybe that is why....I know it doesn't smell at my sister's house, so it must be a confined area.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its def closer...long shot, but better than tracking every 0.1 rise in el Nino.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is some more shapely cirrus, that run.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly....its like having the surface low near the BM, but the upper levels being elongated to over the Berkshires. You wouldn't disregard the upper levels in favor of the surface when forecasting synoptics, so why some are doing it with respect to ENSO in seasonal forecasting is beyond me.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sometimes the fangs are the truth.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think in this case we have pretty good idea that were are porked several days in advance.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does @Cuteirishgirl25think?
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