40/70 Benchmark

I meant to ask you about this yesterday, but got tied up. That jives with my thoughts....I am sure there will be a brutal period with RNA/+NAO mixed in, but it shouldn't dominate the winter, aside from biasing the DM departures positive. How did it do last year? And what is the DM predicated value this year?

Welcome to June.

I'm confident it will end up moderate. I would be surprised of the MEI remained weak...

You require a larger sample size to conclude that we need a very warm subsurface to reach super el nino status? I think we have a much better idea of the peak in mid October than we did last spring. You seem very confident in the ability to if the +IOD to foster continued development of el nino...why not highly anomalous subsurface warmth?

I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice.

Yea, use 30-50mb. Paul, I feel like your largest issue is that you tend to drown yourself in data......I mean, you are attempting to forecast a four month period at several months lead...be exhaustive in the sense that you cover everything, but don't lose focus of the larger picture, which is really what is paramount. You need to set a scope and stick to it. Relegating myself to the 30 and 5-mb levels that CPC posts is good enough for me.

Well, obviously its a long shot anyway today, but we did just have one 8 years ago, so a repeat is less likely.

Thanks; now I understand. This amount of subsurface warmth through September in the past has portended a moderate peak on average...a coupe weak, a couple strong.

I feel like this is my highest confidence outlook since my first one in 2014.

Its basin wide....region 4 is boiling, as well.

This is an interesting graphic that I would like to incorporate into my work....where is 2023 on this? Not sure I entirely understand..

Right...which I think is accounted it for by the modified temps....likely less of an inhibiting factor as the season progresses.

In terms of SST, sure...I don't think that he necessarily means "modoki" in the technical SST sense.

This makes perfect sense to me....no one expects that kind of sustained cold this year.

Yea, multidecadal PAC cold phase signal...no doubt. Any speculation beyond that is for the CC forum.

JAMSTEC is a wonderful resource of EMI info/data.

@weatherwizRead this. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

I read up on that stuff over the summer.

Its very important for both...but its informative to analyze your modoki composites to gain insight into why there is variation within each composite. First of all, there is obviously more variance the weaker the event...secondly, factors such solar implications and other various influences, such as volcanic eruptions can play a role in modulating the polar domain that can supercede ENSO. NOTHING operates within a vacuum and there are ALWAYS competing forces at play...its incumbent upon the forecaster to resolve that.

My largest area of growth over the past few years is not being too reliant on modoki characterization (modoki vs basin-wide, east based), while still incorporating it. I heavily factor in sensible weather matches of like ENSO state now, which is something I adopted from raindance. Its important to be both eclectic and exhaustive in your seasonal forecasting methodologies.

I think the main limitation of that is reducing the likelihood of an extremely cold winter.

I mean, don't get me wrong....as I am wading though literally hundreds of composites and index tables in the process of composing a 30 page outlook, I don't always assess the pattern...that is more for medium range storm prediction. In seasonal forecasting, go more by index assessment.

What I have learned in my 10 years of forecasting efforts/blogging is that there is no surer sign that you are truly lost than feeling as though you've figured it out.

Don't get too wrapped up in rigid conceptualizations of which index combos are favorable, etc....at the end of the day, you need to assess charts. +PNA in general is great, but it always depends on the configuration (precise placement of it), as well as what else is going on around the hemisphere concurrent with it. For instance, last January was a +PNA, but it was biased so far to the west that it mimicked an RNA by parking a trough on the west coast.....you also run the risk of PV interference when you a couple a +PNA with a deeply negative NAO, or in the case of last season, have RNA and west-baised PNA negating great blocks. Don't get married to any single correlation or relationship and always keep an open mind when assessing charts because mother nature is extremely innovative and constantly evolving. But if the goal is to avoid the gradient saturation that is increasingly plagued our large storm efforts in recent years, +PNA is what you want 9/10 times.

Its going to act like a moderate event when all is said and done......there will be a STJ, but I also think the N stream will hang around, too. This is the most confident that I have been in an outlook since my first one in 2014.