40/70 Benchmark

I find myself getting roped into that sometimes...especially during the fall if cane season blows....but by mid-late February, I plan my escape by way of fantasy draft prep if winter blows.

EPS:

I would consider that OP GFS more qualitatively for now.

GEFS and GEPS seemed very averse to the Coastal plane.

EPS seems to support the GFS OP.

Wow, the EURO really sucked for Sunday-Monday...yikes.

GFS

Complementary February HECS, hopefully.

Last year: Index Value Predicted '22-'23 DM Value Range Actual '22-'23 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1.27 to -1.57 -1.89 Biased .32 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 -.68 Biased .03 positive ENSO SON -1.0 to -1.2 EMI: .3 to .5 (slightly east-hybrid) SON -1.0 (Verified) Verified +1 Modoki Error (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.43 Biased .73 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.15 to -.45 -.38 Verified North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.15 to +.45 +.23 Verified Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) +.15 to +.45 ? ? ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) ? ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.10 to -.20 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 ? ?

TBH, my last few NAO/AO seasonal forecasts have been pretty good, which is ironic because my overall calls have (especially in terms of snowfall) regressed. When I was going better, I struggled in the polar domain.

2004-2005?

Next year may have a sneaky potential with a big ACE La Nina likely.

I guess its more of a concern for you because you are a professional with paying customers....I just forecast for @512highon my High School weather blog (thanks @jbenedet)

2031.

You can do both.....still include H5 composite and snowfall forecast. I went above normal temps and near normal snowfall this year. Don't be afraid to go "warm and snowy".

Yea, just need to look at the scoreboard. I need to find a better way to convey/adjust for that in my composites. Omega was 100% right about that...its constructive criticism. Def. not a bias, though.

Well, when every year is above normal it does.

Its not ideal......but sometimes ideal patterns do not bare the fruit and suboptimal ones do. I think the big dog potential will still exist.

Raindance has been decent, too, but too cold...like most.

I really wish that @bluewavewould make seasnal attempts because I feel like he may have been closest overall, but its tough to commit to that when he only does two week intervals.

This is fair.

You average 50"? How much do you have?

I feel like @qg_omegamay have had a point when he said that we need to do a better job accounting for GW with respect to the seasonal temp forecasts.

I don't think anyone can really claim a full-fledged victory so far, though....this certaintly has not looked like a super el Nino, despite being very warm....I think both sides have had some wins and losses.