40/70 Benchmark

Kind of like the ACE during La Nina. Not that it matters, but I don't think he is as clueless as he appears. I just think he became enslaved by capitalism so much that he began forecasting backwards and seeking out data to support a preconceived notion out of deference to the all mighty dollar.

I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental.

I think as continue to see more frequent anomalous nodes of warmth throughout the planet as a byproduct of CC, we will also continue to see drastic shifts like this that are more preavlent than in the past. This is because not only will the need for the plaent to budget for and redistribute said heat nodes impact the atmosphere, but we will also see compensatory regimes several years or even decades down the line. This will lead to a lot of knee-jerk conclusions among scientists and this is what we are already witnessing.

Right. Some think it may be permanent, but I find that hard to believe.....the planet will find some mechanism to achieve balance IMHO. If we're being honest, this West Pac warm pool is the vehicle through which the globe is balancing after all of those "warm blob" seasons last decade, when the west had a huge muti-year drought. Like I have said, still paying for 2014-2015 back this way. And yes...I still feel like it was worth it.

Totally agree. It was moderate all things considered...the thing is that the forces competing with El Nino to negate its influence to that of a moderate event also conspired to ruin winter in the east, so we didn't benefit from it. This is why some of the mega-el nino crowd is misguidededly claiming victory. This is the crux of why I think @raindancewx has had so much success of late.....he incorporates what is actually happening around the globe so heavily into his outlooks that he is less likely to be run astray by any one factor such as ENSO, etc. He could anticipate that while El Nino would not be as prominent a driver as many had figured, the weather around the globe was still behaving in a manner consistent with East coast dud-seasons. This will become an increasingly crucial aspect of seasonal forecasting as CC continues to assert itself, thus altering the interaction of the myriad of global factors that we consider. Some really prescient techniques on his part. We need to not stop focusing so much on what the global atmosphere is saying to us and start focusing more on what its actually doing. Its like the old addage with respect to people..."actions speak louder than words"...we really need to adhere to this within the context of seasonal forecasting during an expedited rate of CC. What the globe is saying is often no longer consistent with its actions and seasonal forecasters need to take heed and adapt to this reality. I think I am on the right track, but obviously have a lot to learn and being weak with respect to statistics makes it a taller task for me.

This in conjunction with the solar min is why I feel like we will play catch up in terms up seasonal snowfall along the east coast near the turn of the decade.

I think you could say 1998....normally a major ENSO event will help to trigger a multi decadal shift like that. We had the 1972 major El Nino leading that shift and the 1998 super El Nino later in the 90s. I feel like this -PDO cycle will end late this decade. I know some of the space weather/solar guys feel the same way.

This in conjunction with GW is why El Nino had a difficult time coupling last season and we continued to see so much Maritime forcing. Thus those saying "See, I told you strong El Nino means warm" have no clue what really went on.

Hit 90 today, up from 59. 73.2/65 now.

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does. JMHO.

Obviously the climate is warming dramtically, but a lot of folks don't realize that the vast majority of that warming is experienced during periods of time when the stakes are lower...ie the ability for heat to escape on clear, calm nights is reduced significantly. However, the lack of snowfall of late, at least in this region, is due primarily to just bad patterns mixed with some awful luck. Its comical how the stars have aligned perfectly to avoid a well placed/time high. Simple as that. Even Raindance will tell you this....the pattern has blown for the east. Its not some magical tipping point....but even if you want to entertain the notion that the warmer west Pac is causing said changes, there is still some dreadful luck that we can just never time a high right. We have had shit seasons in the past were we caught a break and got big snow, anyway.

I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element..

85.1 back at the ranch.

Stay......safe?

Paying the piper for 2011 and 2015....balance is just about squared up. Hopefully we sneak out a half decent season over the next few years, then I think we load up for another very nice run around the turn of the decade....near solar min and flip of the PDO in terms of multi-decadal trend. I think this decade is akin to the 50s and next decade maybe more like the 60s (modified).

One more note on this....I think the run on more negative NAO seasons will hold off until we get closer to solar min, as descending solar is pretty averse to such and outcome.

I am far from sold on a stong peak in terms of ONI, but nor do I really think that it matters much.

Yep. No argument.

Keep me posted on that formula, but I'm not optimistic. I was actually on a roll with the AO/NAO for a few years, but last year I was off..expected it close to neutral and it was pretty +.

I don't think anyone has been doubting the potential for a high Atlantic ACE. Would bump analogs like 1998 and 2005. You could argue 1995 and 2017, too, but I don't like those years for other reasons.

My honest opinion is that there will be more down seasons and probably a decrease in average snowfall, but when we get it the ceiling will be higher than ever. I have said before that this is a trend I am fine with. I will gladly pass on a few 6-8" events in exchange for one 20"er.

Now post the snowfall trend for the same period if you want to provide a truly accurate portrayal.

Well, its more of player in La Nina seasons and I think it ties into the extra tropical Pacific more....if we see a very high ACE, may mean more of a -WPO this year is my guess. My main qualm with 2007 is not ENSO, but rather QBO and potentially ACE.

This is actually something that I was privy to....the disconnect between the MEI and ONI means that ENSO will not be as prominent a driver and thus extra tropical influences will be. What I failed to recognize is just how anaomalous the WPO would become and that is what ran the show. While it can meana colder outcome due to the reduced likeliehood of a stronger ENSO event inundating theh igher latitudes with warmth, that isn't necessarily the case in the event we end up withman extra tropical driver doing the same thing, which is what the ++WPO/-PDO combo did.

I think you are weighing ONI too heavily....the extra tropical Pacific was actually fairly similar to 2007 this past winter with the potent +WPO and -PDO. That was also another season in which the forcing was waaaay west, but it just didn't matter. Why? El Nino wasn't driving the bus...the hostile extra tropical Pacific was. The MEI was actually a very good match...they aren't as far apart intensity wise as you may think and neither were huge players. Being overreliant on the MEI on the heels of what happened last season is indicative of an unwillingess to adjust IMO.