40/70 Benchmark

31.5" via 6 hourly swipes...they went with the dude who measured settled depth at 25".

Yes, I was wrong on this. You were right.

Yea, part of me felt like an ass putting out what I just did, but it's where I feel we are headed now. Awesome job staying ahead of this, John.

I don't think the "have nots" will get boned as badly due to the 850 inflow, though.....save for the CT RV and to a lesser extent, west slopes of the hills.

2.75" Snowing god right now...great growth after a lull earlier.

Severe Winter Storm Imminent Sunday Evening Through Monday Widespread Closures Likely Monday-Tuesday Eastern Mass Weather Mea Culpa Concerning Impending Blizzard of 2026 Eastern Mass Weather confidently opined as recently as Tuesday that there would be no major winter storm impacting southern New England on Sunday into Monday. It is now patently obvious that this is the exact opposite of what is actually going to happen due to some crucial morphologies that have taken place. Synoptic Overview The amplified Pacific trough responsible for the significant thaw this week is in the process of breaking down as this passage is written, but not before it delivers a couple of parting gifts that will ultimately replenish all of the snow that has melted, and then some. There are two final parcels of energy that have ejected into the plains from this dying trough during the day on Friday. The amplification of the nascent ridge in place of the trough over the inter mountain west on Saturday will ensure that these pockets of energy encounter a relaxed gradient on the east coast over the weekend, as heights over the southeast fall in response to the development of the aforementioned ridge out west. This ensures that the energy is not sheared apart in much by the compressed flow between the polar vortex/block dyad to the north, and the southeast ridge to the south, in much same manner the previous two systems. It is because of this relaxed flow that the energy with these two disturbances can coalesce and phase beneath the block upon reaching the east coast by Sunday night. This is where it becomes apparent that the North American landscape has changed since this major storm was expected to remain south of the forecast area. Not only has the PNA ridge over the western CONUS trended significantly westward into a position ideal to foster the development of major east coast winter storms, but the system currently affecting the region also departs into the Canadien Maritimes at a slightly faster pace, which allows confluence to lift north. This is crucial because it the position of the PNA ridge and the confluence north of Maine that were cited as the reasons why this storm would not be unable to travel up the coast. Below is a juxtaposition of guidance from Tuesday morning (right) and Friday morning (left) to better illustrate these changes. The differences are apparent, and the discrepancy concerning the placement of the Western ridge is even more apparent when comparing guidance this morning (left) to last Sunday (right). It is these changes that leaves the forecast area, along with much of the east coast, poised to experience the full wreath of the impending blizzard of 2026. Expected Blizzard Evolution Snowfall should overspread the region from south-southwest to north-northeast on Sunday afternoon. Snowfall will rapidly become heavy Sunday night, with banding increasing at the apex of the storm from around midnight through Monday morning. Note two distinct bands, one over southeastern Mass and one from southeastern New Hampshire into the east slopes of the Monadnocks and Worcester hills. However, it is important to note that these are estimates and the precise location of these bands is exceptionally difficult to diagnose. The very heaviest amounts of snowfall are likely to be within these bands, as well as on the east slopes of the Worcester hills, where a deep layer easterly fetch will induce upslope enhancement. While 850mb flow off of the Atlantic will ensure that the variation in snowfall between bands will not be as extreme as is often the case in systems of this magnitude, amounts are likely to be somewhat lower between these bands due to some extended residence time. Some mixing is likely on Cape Cod during the height of the storm on Monday morning, as the track of the low comes close enough to entrain some milder ocean air on hurricane force wind gusts that will induce moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion. Finally, precipitation begins to taper off later in the afternoon and into the evening, ending well before midnight Monday night. First Call:

Because I think it be less than 31" but more than 17". Banding...I think it will be batshit extreme.

First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/severe-winter-storm-imminent-sunday.html First Call:

Man, do I feel dirty after making this map....shit.

EURO AI is right over the BM now.

Shot this is January 1996 with more wind.

This just the blizzard...12z (right) 18z (left)

That S NH gradient reminds me of Jan 7, 1996.

That gradient in s NH is insane...

I bet there will be a hellacious band near the border there...

Seems to be tightening the gradient in SNH...didn't go much further N...

The LBSW is inching towards LBCT

That's 1978" minus 5-10" of snow...

Where?

That'll do-

Never like to hear that.

13" depth here.....10-14" range, 13" is the mode and the number by my station, which is about 50/50 sun/shade.

Or is someone all in CoastalWx!??

Yes.