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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm more confident of a KU for the mid atl than I am here...the pressing of the Canadian ridge is a concern.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not happening at this latitude.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there, it's initialization of the Pacific, both tropical and mid latitudes, has left a great deal to be desired.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably at least in part why it's overcooking the Modoki theme.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is def. underselling 1.2 and 3, though, so I see what you are saying. JAMSTEC probably is, too.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, CANSIPS is really only a hair west of the EURO with regard to the orientation of El Nino, at this point.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    What's interesting to me is that, like the CANSIPS, it's been correcting east with the El Nino, but it doesn't really make much of a difference in the forecast output. This is consistent with what I have been saying about how orientation isn't going to be a huge deal this season given the magnitude of the event at hand. While I think the JAMSTEC and CANSIPS are overdone, you don't need to convince me that forecasting a season largely devoid of winter weather on the east coast is utter folly. It's certainly not going to be wall-to-wall cold and snow...but I think we are essentially trading a great deal of MC influence for a canonical east-based first half, and quite frankly, that is a trade I want mother nature to render final approval of, yesterday.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, ignoring consensus trends is silly.....precision verification isn't the point.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is impressive....the magnitude of warmth under ridges is always underdone in these modern times, so no biggie....did about as well as can be expected.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's on the Ambient Network...not sure how to link it.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think December will be representative of the balance of the season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, parts of SE MA were above normal in 2016.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.14" event total....I'll take it. I was afraid it would have been even less.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who doesn't?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    So far, really just the vp amomalies, which I already mentioned...but there is already really a wealth of quality data.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that station measures the moisture that falls better than it does the moisture in the air.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was so frustrated because I called that blizzard down to within just a few days during the fall, but expected it to get up here....just brutal.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    What a breath of fresh air that is after the last 11 years.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congratulations on the new baby and love the site.
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