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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly the type of analogs I was speculating on. 2002 is similar, but obviously weaker. I think the issue will be the NAO...1991-1992 was awful because it was the only strongly positive NAO/weakly -PDO, which we may very well have this year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got down to 23.2 this AM...recovered up to 53.1 39.6
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll be shocked if we get through the early 2030's without a flip.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, yes...fair post. To me, it makes sense that the strongest of ENSO events, which are El Niño, reverse....but I can't say definitively that that trend will not cease with more data. We will just have to see. I wasn't trying to be dismissive, so sorry if it came across that way.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank you. January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know we're screwed when Chris starts saying "it will be interesting to see".....thereafter, you can insert a means for the demise of the impending winter. Are you able to access the latest ERA 5 data...ie for the entire month of March? I am encountering the same issue as with NCAR...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect it to be as warm as 2023-2024 in the northeast.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's undoubtedly the best indicator...follow the $.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you have the link for the site that was used to generate that map?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, I am unable to use the ERA 5 data set to retrieve the latest data, either...am I missing something?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    What an absolute disaster that they have ended the NCAR reanalysis.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh....maybe more like replacement level...say Darren Bragg https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darren-bragg/83/stats/batting
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure which I enjoy more, the liberation from mother nature's infernal oven courtesy of the Atlantic's salty life raft, or @Typhoon Tipcolorful rectal analogies....it's close.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strobe lighting on the privates?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't "use it to forecast". It's just something I have noticed about the strongest of events. I love how 1983 and 2016 are qualified as BS when in fact they were officially designated as La Niña....that is BS. 1966-1967 sure as hell seems cool-neutral to me........1957 and 1991, sure....I'll grant that. Must be a sample size issue I don't think I used any offensive language in my response to Chuck.....if he feels as though I did, by all means, let me know. At least to me, employing sarcasm is different than using incendiary terms like "idiot". And yes, as a father of four young children and a licensed independent social worker/therapist, I would be immensely offended if I were called a pedophile, despite the fact I have never harmed any child. Frankly. I find your analogy utterly disgraceful, but it doesn't surprise me coming from you.
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