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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not saying it will be awful....I just don't expect a blockbuster month.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shouldn't even be a lag with ample antecedent blocking...another consequence of me missing the current blocking is that we won't have to wait until March to feek the impact of the mid month SSW.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, to be fair....I've been too warm all season with respect to my Outlook last fall, despite nailing the pattern save for the late January -NAO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can we send a storm to the glue factory?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's about as boring a two weeks as you will find at peak climo.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The more you have, the more is lost to settling/sublimation.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    The concern there is the gradient between the NAO block and the se height bump via RNA....I think I'd prefer to play it safe and just do overruning rather than try for a coastal in that setup.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice looking tarrot card.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    +QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonal forecasting is like any other challenging endeavor...put the work in to learn from your mistakes and you'll be successful. Some are challenge-averse and that can't be helped.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been feasting for 3 months TBH.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I beg to differ.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Separate.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is my inclination.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends on orientation.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be surprising.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Vintage 1980s aluminum can haha
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough season for Mr. Webb.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    -PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.
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