40/70 Benchmark

I am talking about the seasonal total after the seasonal tally at the end of December is in single digits.

No, the end of December. This is for my area....tri state as done okay.

Excerpt from my latest blog: While the forecast for the balance of 2025 would appear rather unchallenging, things are seldom as they appear in weather. In this particular instance, the caveat is an MJO wave that is expected to remain rather meager and variable after having largely dissipated over the course of the past week following its brief flirtation with phase 8 near the outset of the month. Note the tendency for the MJO to stagnate and become incoherent enough in phase 8 as to actually be reflected as having reemerged into the MC phases as byproduct of the continued warmth in the western Pacific that was referenced last fall. The consistent struggle for the MJO to remain a coherent wave in the western Pacific has been a theme over the course of the past decade that any seasoned forecaster should not have neglected to consider. The disjointed signal that results from the continuation of the battle for proxy between the MC and western Pacific will allow for an occasional element of western Pacific expression to assert itself into the pattern as a byproduct of the areas of dual forcing. This will be especially prevalent during the final week of the month, which is when some potentially colder intrusions may periodically infiltrate the northeastern quarter of the country

You can analyze the pattern all you want.....and debate, but what can't be argued is that it needs to snow, and snow significantly soon or else a good season quickly becomes exceedingly unlikely.

Cool ENSO can't produce an awful December for snowfall and still ultimately thrive in terms of the seasonal total....which doesn't preclude a very good period(s), but again....it is what it is-

I'm not......buuuuut, you can't dispute strong climo evidence to the contrary if this month ends up as it looks like it may.

The big question for me is to what degree is this permanent, which is a pretty polarizing issue, but I have maintained a more moderate stance.

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is in fact a useful tool.

Ineedweenies can bun it all he wants, but climo is indisputable and it is what it is. It doesn't apply to him, anyway...this is more for eastern Mass.

I'll tell you one thing...if I come out of this month in single digits for snowfall, my outlook on the season will absolutely shift. I can only find two cool ENSO seasons since 1950 that did that and ended up sniffing normal, and that is 1966 and 1983, the former was a cool-neutral year.

All of those events will be showers followed by inverted "FUs" for us.

It's a perfect pattern for them...imagine that ridge few hundred miles west, INVO Idaho?

It's getting exhausting and tedious....start to lose intrigue when you just know it isn't going to snow, regardless of what happens. My god.....if this season does it again, this will surpass the 80's-early 90s.

They'll end up getting a 4'er in April.

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

..or our best storms from phases, god forbid....

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

You seriously goging to answer it?. The prevailing thought was that it would get colder a bit later in the month, but I didn't see anyone claiming that it would be "warm"...

That would be the end of me if that ever worked out...I just can't take any more meteorological sodomy.

This sums everything up quite well...snake-bitten era continues. No one is ever going to convince me that this is 100% owed to CC....BS.

Should happen again.

Yea, lovely-

....or call BS on it beforehand via own obervations.