40/70 Benchmark

I've ignored the NAM every single cycle.

Nope, so glad I'm not in charge, either.

Jesus...between winter solstice sun angle trepidation and 2-11" ranges WTF is going on at BOX? Did they put @Snowcrazed71in charge?

I thought it would get a bit further....may shift that jack se a bit.

Yea, that is the next bonafide threat...will probably hit that up late week.

I never really saw the appeal...I kept looking for something to write about, but never found anything.

WTF is the RRFS?

I will be there...Funky Murphy's @ 3pm Saturday.

Top ten candidate for post of the year!!!!

I think that not only is there more data, but other guidance has closed the gap....so like I said, I don't think the EURO has gotten worse... but it runs more often and other guidance is better. JMO....I don't want to incur the wrath of Wolfie.

The CF is probably going to bisect Methuen at it's most inland point, which will put me barely on the seaward side. I like Salem, NH out to KASH and down to ORH for a jack.

06z EURO says I made the right call, though,.

It is, but I think what may save me is the lack of wind in this event...no real mechanism to really drive the marine puke up my driveway, but it will be dicey given it's early December with no real antecedent high.

If I get 2", I'll show to the GTG on Saturday wearing nothing but a Santa hat.

I think I should have gone 6-9" instead of 4-8" in the general area, and 7-10" instead of 5-10" in the JP band, but oh well....see what happens.

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/final-call-for-tuesday-winter-storm.html FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL:

Final Call for Tuesday Winter Storm Expect Early School Dismissals & Messy PM Commute The forecast rationale as laid out in the First Call on Friday remains largely unchanged, although the details have become somewhat clearer, as is usually the case. Synoptic Overview Eastern Mass Weather forecast a busy month of December in what promised to be an active start to the 2025-2026 winter season across the southern New England forecast area, and it now appears that this active pattern is underway. However, the first storm system that is passing by tonight is obviously falling as rain, as expected. This is due to the fact that there remains a strongly positive NAO in place, which is conspiring with energy over the western CONUS (Tuesday's winter storm) to raise eastern heights on the east coast enough to allow this final rain event to track across northern New England tonight. This system will head through the Canadien maritimes and into the North Atlantic, where it will help to elevate heights in the NAO domain as the system number two begins to eject out int the Tennessee valley by Tuesday morning. Heights over the east will subtly descend as the energy shifts east, and the riding builds in the vicinity of Greenland. This will displace the PV slightly further to the south and suppress the storm track just enough to provide the forecast areas with it's first winter storm of the season for Tuesday afternoon into the predawn hours of Wednesday morning, before this system also pulls away into the Maritimes. Anticipated Storm Evolution Although some flurries are possible across western New England, we should escape the morning commute on Tuesday largely unscathed and without delay. It is important not to be mislead, as the plot will thicken and the visibility will lower, at least for those locales receiving snowfall, by midday, as the precipitation will grow steadier and somewhat heavier. However, any snowfall over the southeastern third of the region will be brief, as southeast winds off the ocean out ahead of the approaching low will cause precipitation to rapidly mix with and change to rain given the lack of an antecedent high pressure in place to the north to replenish the cold air supply. This will also result in the development of a coastal front Tuesday afternoon over Eastern Mass and coastal New Hampshire. The marine layer will encroach on ENE winds to the seaward side of the front, which will hinder accumulations and even trigger a change to rain along the immediate shore. However, the poleward side may see some local higher amounts given mesoscale banding as a result of low level convergence and mid level deformation, from the southern Worcester hills up through the Nashoba Valley, and into interior southeastern New Hampshire. That being said, enhancement is a relative term, and while travel will be disrupted, these will not be crippling rates given the less than ideal banding signal in conjunction with the rapid pace of movement. Then as the low passes by later in the evening, the winds will veer more northerly again, and the coastal front will collapse to the shore, at which point any lingering precipitation will end as a period of snowfall during the predawn hours of Wednesday AM. There are likely to be some delays on Wednesdays with slippery spots likely, but cancellations should be sparse, as road crews will have had ample time to work their magic before sunrise. That said, allow for a slower than usual commute Wednesday morning. FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL:

It's only the start of the month...it will get cold.

I got skunked, as well, those years. This has a December 2000/2002 vibe.

Party like it's 2000.

If I get 1-3", I'll change my screen name to eweather Jr.

Hopefully I can catch some twistser

How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range?

Yea, if you out out crap products to start. I don't expect big changes to my Friday map.

Man, EURO AI ens are enfuego.