40/70 Benchmark

I may need a bigger boat on my map....it sounds silly and anecdotal, but usually when I see flakes early, it's a sign that it wants to snow. Happened pre dawn March 14, 2018 and PM of Jan 6, 2024.

Yea, no complaints from me...I expect it to be east. I'll take the refresher.

What is the yellow there, 6"?

First & Final Call for Wintry Saturday Manageable Snowfall Amid Cold & Blustery Conditions It may seem counterintuitive, but despite the fact that southern New England is going to be experiencing perhaps a plowable snowfall along with some pretty harsh winter conditions this weekend, the area is not going to be directly impacted by a major storm. It is true that one will in fact be forming, but as is often the case, the devil is in the details. Synoptic Overview A lobe of the polar vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay Canada has began interacting with a developing system off of the eastern seaboard this morning. While the developing storm would normally be too far offshore to produce much in the way of measurable snowfall across the region, the nexus between the ocean low and the PV lobe will result in a bridge of energy in the atmosphere referred to as an "inverted trough", which will trigger a swath of light snow to break out across the area. The easterly flow around the invigorated ocean low offshore will represent another mechanism for snowfall, which will also ultimately act to enhance and even slow the incoming band in association with the inverted trough before it exists the coast. Precisely where this takes place will result in enhanced snowfall that could total up to several inches for a rather localized area. Clear skies and dangerously cold wind chills will be left in the departing storm's wake on Super Bowl Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution The band of light snowfall associated with the inverted trough, representing a conduit of energy feeding in from the PV lobe to the offshore low will move into western New England by midnight tonight. Simultaneously, ocean-effect bands will develop and feed into eastern areas. The approach of the trough from the west will invigorate the ocean-effect bands during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday AM, which will cause the area to intensify and expand over the north shore. The area of snowfall will likely bifurcate after dawn and into the mid morning hours, as one area in association with the parent trough persists to the west, as does the ocean enhanced snowfall to the east. Here are the soundings from the hardest hit areas of Lawrence, Boston and Beverly, MA, which are indicative of nearly ideal, "cross-hair" signatures denoting moisture and max OMEGA (lift) colocated within the -12 to -18c. This implies that although snowfall will not be extremely heavy, it will accumulate very efficiently since dendrites are likely to be nearly immaculate in structure. The area of snow then congeals again during the afternoon before tapering off by evening. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls, as bitter cold, arctic air is drawn in on strong northwesterly winds around the departing ocean low. First & Final Call: Thereafter, the next chance for some modest storminess may come around mid week, next week. More on that later this weekend if the situation warrants.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/first-final-call-for-wintry-saturday.html First & Final Call:

I'm just saying, regardless of ENSO and independent of any CC related factors (I'm not disputing your supported ideology), the STJ is always going to factor into some degree, every seasons. I mean...look at 1995-1996...that predated CC....but again, I'm not disputing CC or the role that it plays.

Yes, my point is that is really the only time...it's never entirely dormant, but it's been dry this year for the most part.

Expect a couple of inches and no one will be dissapointed. It's on a weekend...bring the refresher IMO.

I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

You'll probably get 2-3".

I think it looked better yesterday.

3km NAM and RGEM look identical with that N Shore focus.

Probably east slopes of the the ORH hills, Beverly-Peabody-Salem area and Norwell.

Yea, went to shit on ensembles. I getting winter 2025-2026 fatigue at this point.

Guy is in the ENSO thread lately...always something out of left field....grain of salt.

You mean the OPs?

@Torch TigerJust as you were, just posting what it shows.

Both Sky net means looks great for the 11-12th.

Hey, it's a progressive society.

I don't go into threads on this crap. Enjoy.

I wonder whom I should take in round 1....

I was about to say, at least it manages to phase in time for the Maritimes again despite the fast flow.

Now I feel better. Thanks. JK

So it sucks. At least we have a fledgling consensus.