Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    74,596

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I still think we go +TNH in mid January, but I am admittedly less confident on that than I was the mid December flip to warmer.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it did, because it's cutting....but if it were a coastal, all we would here about is Tip lecturing everyone on how the fast flow from CC would yield in a shearing of the wave in the lead up to verification.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You always CAD well.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still early, but so far my biggest error is mixing up the WPO and EPO....I did the same thing last year. Those are tough to call on a seasonal scale.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup...but the 50+/50+ is what absolutely eviscerates it in short order.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perhaps AI could assist?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also do get that it's viable weather and folks take an interest in it.....so it should have a thread allocated for that DISCO, so we don't have to split conjecture about whether it will ever snow again.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid January is the next window....+TNH will be the vehicle for change if my idea is right, followed by big strat disruption in February to set up for an interesting finish.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's because they are going by guidance. This is the benefit of putting in the work all summer and fall to develop your own seasonal paradigm...are you right 100% of the time? God, no....but you become more adept at thinking critically and aren't enslaved to capricious and inaccurate long range guidance. When you are wrong, you grow from it if you put in the effort to understand why.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, who could have seen this coming....(looks in mirror and raises hand)-
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Especially Moregarbage....he kept pointing out the 4 members of the EPS that supported a reversal around Xmas like 2 weeks ago, and was like "models are beginning to come around to the SSW I expect around Xmas". I replied something to the effect..."zero chance. Wait for February".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't give a rat's ass and don't want to read it in the main thread. 52.3
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    51.3...was in the mid-upper 30s until 5am, when the inversion broke.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would go with the traditional guidance in any kind of exotic high latitude blocking scenario until further notice.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still have about 1.5" of crust on the ground here....all a dream tomorrow.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still suspect the blocking is being overdone, but hopefully we deviate a bit from my seasonal.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I managed like 5" of slop in that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, 1996 had a secondary jack over ORH CO....spread the wealth more. Bit like 1994 in the regard.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://youtu.be/S1yn-x_WTuA
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess 2015 was a bit more CJey than 1996...I had a foot more in the latter...probably also because March turned SOP in 2015...1996 did not.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think your area had more in 1996...I know I did.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't eat crap like that anymore.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Scotter to Norwell probably had around 150".
×
×
  • Create New...