Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,565

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO. https://www.severe-weather.eu/
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been researching this for my upcoming blog....2015 had it somewhat, but it was much more pronounced in 2023.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.
×
×
  • Create New...