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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I continue to think that my nearly decade long streak of subpar seasons is about to end, just a matter of whether it's done incrementally, or in grand fashion.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Clearly, CoastalWx would just LOVE for the vortex to phase in.....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That VD systems seems like a tight rope, highwire act, whereas it's kind of spectrum of potential outcomes concerning just how much if the PV phases in and how much of that decaying west NAO block remains. Big phase and rapid erosion of block=mess for SNE, moderate PV contribution and stout block=nudity and little PV contribution=largely indifference from me.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny, 2000-2001 actually had very hostile forcing...it's in the Modoki composite, but it's not a huge deal since it was weak and had the huge east QBO/Solar max attributed blocky polar domain.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most great months do.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean its bette than a pure Modoki type composite, which is nowhere near 8.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is the money-week...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd hit it.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...really skirting 8..was centered 6-7...but MJO wasn't much of a factor IMO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't want the brutal cold and CF pinned to ACK...give me marginal with frigid SSTs.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to take a big interest in that pretty quickly if it keeps that up and other guidance follows suit...has my attention. I love, love , LOVE the fact that we poised to head into a strong east QBO/cool ENSO finish with potential strat implications and SSTs about as cold as can be.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we are going to get a similar pattern...maybe dates don't coincide precisely and we don't get 50" of snow, blah, blah....but elite analog IMHO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of like what the GFS is going VD Day.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was COD.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I said earlier...if anything it was weak MC forcing, which had no impact.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pattern def did NOT match phase 6-7, which makes sense because it was so weak...blocking from the Feb SSW ran the show.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Phase 6-7 Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime. From east to west...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we get at least a couple in the 40s.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty good consistency with that VD Day Miller B on the GFS.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough to say, but not necessarily...no more than MC....but would need to see a hovmoller to know for sure.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    A lot gets lost in semantics...technically, that mid January period was a torch because night time mins were very high, even though we didn't get any 55 degree-torch days. I get where both sides are coming from. I don't think that mid February break will stick, like the mid January break...but it won't get as cold as late January early February again, not that we need it to.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Caveat being, we didn't have the baseline MC like forcing due to the warm pool back then, so maybe it's bit harder now...but like I said, I still don't think March will suck.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Seems like we just need to avoid the MJO from getting in the way during March...don't need it. 2001 flirted with phase 8 briefly, then went COD...2018 was actually briefly in MC before going COD.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, I'll take the under on me getting 45.5" again, but it will probably be a decent month.
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