40/70 Benchmark

No doubt...I just do the blog because the writing keeps me sharp.

Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period of blissful ignorance is just about over.

Will has disappeared- You know that that means....

The sequence this December has summed up my climo since 2018....this exact sequence. 12/2 nailed areas JUST to my north....like legit 3-5 miles, then the mid atlantic gets a couple, followed a closer graze that nails southern portions of the region. Now we flip back to a NNE pattern that will focus north of me. Just relentlessly frustrating, aside from maybe 3 days....1/7/2024, 2/1/2021 and 12/6?/2019. I get something from both extremes, so I avoid the cellar seasons that SOP has gotten, but have an unmatched streak of overall futility (7 consecutive seasons of greater than 10" below average and counting).

I'm going to do pattern update blog this week, hopefully tomorrow. Don't expect really any changes from the progression that I laid out on 11/10, just maybe more specific.

Well...snow. You have had a decent amount, and I haven't.

I find myself challenged for time this year because the family is home and I have 4 kids aged 1-6, so sometimes my results will reflect that a bit. Not to make excuses....I still should have trusted my work and stuck to my guns more.

Unreal...early season has gone exactly as I had expected patten progression wise, just colder and LESS snow than I had expected. Make. It. Stop.

This definitely isn't like a ratter pattern and I think the season is over...I still like the season as a whole, but now we enter into a decidedly more unfavorable regime for a rather extended stretch after squanders.

No, not on you....my tone is awful because I'm frustrated. Wasn't clear...

No, I agree front enders are possible....just sucks to be where we are after how cold it has been, and now be relegated to hoping for a couple of inches of slush before it washes away and we add to the snow stake.

I only did one map for this....I def would have went 2-5" down there had I updated Saturday because almost did on Friday....but guidance was awful Friday, I got scared a bit....the 2-4" was still aggressive then.

Yes, I think we will avoid getting shut out next few weeks...couple that with improving climo and the next few weeks will probably still be snowier than the last few.

I know you are into that, but I don't give a rat's ass about the negative departure if it doesn't snow.

I totally buy it...man, like exactly the PT pattern that I expected to develop around the holiday and well in January. I think the next window opens in mid January (ducks and runs) I can not believe that I am coming out of this pattern with 3.75"...less than NH and the cape....just unbelievable. We should get some shots at front enders and SWFE given Canada shouldn't torch, but my god...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/verification-for-festive-sunday-snowfall.html B+

Verification for Festive Sunday Snowfall Strong Forecast But Slightly too Conservative The season's first significant snowfall for the southeast coast of New England was identified at a very extended lead time using a combination of seasonal analogs, long range ensemble guidance and pattern recognition. In fact, forecast for the storm itself actually ended up being slightly too conservative. The 1-3" forecast for the central portion of the region worked out well, however, there were two primary problem areas with the overall forecast. The most obvious issue is that the 2-4" portion of the forecast over the southeastern quarter of the area actually verified in the 3-6" range, given amounts up to 5" over southwestern, Connecticut (Norwalk) and 6" on the outer half of cape cod (6" from Hyannis to Chatham). There is also a strong argument to be made that the western portion of the 1-3" area should have been extended slightly further to the north, as evidenced by the 3" total reported in Great Barington, MA in the southwestern corner of the state. This is a shortcoming that likely would have been alleviated had a follow up map been issued on Saturday, when it had become clear that the storm would track slightly further to the north. Final Grade: B+

You were hopeful for the days leading up to xmas just last night....

I think I went 19-29" for CPK.

Yea, we were on the same page. Glad it worked out..withstood the model waffles, when it looked meager on Friday, then beefed up last night...stayed the course.

1".

Not as it pertains to forecasting, which has an inherent element of subjectivity....unless you rip and read exclusively. There is also such an excess of data that it's easy to cherry pick.

1" here....about as expected.

@jbenedetThe beauty of blogspot, as archaic and unsophisticated as it may be, is that is provides a written account of my predications....I've largely nailed the progression of the month, and was actually far too WARM. I think I need a new pair of snow covered goggles....

In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. The month of December will average near normal, anywhere from -1F to +1F, except near normal to +2F across the middle Atlantic.