40/70 Benchmark

You're wrong.....now we're done.

Nope....you have a proclivity for shifting conversation to CC because you are passionate about it. No suggestion that your beliefs aren't rooted in fact. But you are so hyper-defensive of anyone ever having the audacity to suggest that some of your positions are in fact just that...opinions, rather than anything but 100% gospel that you reacted in this manner. Chill out-

Brush up on the dictionary. We'll be better. pro·cliv·i·ty /prəˈklivədē/ noun a tendency to choose or do something regularly; an inclination or predisposition toward a particular thing. "a proclivity for hard work"

@Typhoon Tip Review of 2024-2025 with Increased Emphasis on Climate Change There were two significant issues with the DM 2024-2025 Eastern Mass Weather forecast composite published last November. The first issue pertains to the three types of exta tropical Pacific patterns discussed in November, one featuring a -EPO as the most promient feature, one a -PNA and the third a +EPO. The forecast anticipated last season to feature a -PNA type of pattern. However, the defining feature of last season ended up being a -EPO, which is evident in the similarities between the winter 2024-2025 DM composite over the CONUS. And the -EPO DM composoite, as both images have the vortex displaced to the southeast of the Eastern Mass Weather forecast composite. This obviously entailed that the anticipated catalyst of deviation from the Maritime forcing regime that has reigned so supreme over the past decade was not a -WPO pattern, as forecast last fall, but instead a -EPO/+PNA tandem. This departure from the forecast is likely at least partially attributable to a westerly wind burst (WWB) throughout the tropical Pacific that was responsible for a pause in the development of La Niña last December. This WWB also allowed for an episode of Positive Global Absolute Angular Momentum that was more protracted than expected, which allowed for the development of a warm ENSO like Aleutian low that sustained the +PNA ridging in the seasonal mean. This rendered the December 2017 to January 2018 mismatch period (-EPO/+PNA) a better fit than the preferred January 2022 analog (-WPO). December 2017-January 2018: January 2022: One glaring distinction between the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 analogs from this past season is that they both featured generally above average snowfall across much of the southern New England forecast area, where as winter 2024-2025 clearly did not. This represents a notable disparity that warrants further review. Climate Change May be Impeding Major East Coast Snowfalls in Multiple Ways Although the snowfall forecast for winter 2024-2025 was the second most accurate overall of the 11 Eastern Mass Weather issued efforts, there still remained a slight positive bias overall. This despite the fact that last season's forecast was ever so slightly biased warm (+1 to +3F vs +2 to +4F DM forecast) due in large part to the -EPO/+PNA pattern that persisted for much of the season, in contrast to the forecast +EPO/slight -PNA, as discussed. Snowfall was over forecast by anywhere from 2.6% to as much as 30.7% across southern/central New England and New York State. This was primarily due to a combination of unfavorable, inland storm tracks attributable to the +NAO/WPO tandem during the months of December, February and March, as well as the -NAO combining with the prominent seasonal -EPO/+PNA to suppress the storm track during the heart of winter in January. This is evinced by the fact that DM precipitation was slightly less than what was implied by an already fairly dry forecast across much of the east. One could consider the colder temperatures in attributing the decidedly paltry snowfall during the 2024-2025 season to chance, or "luck", however, there is one perspective that would argue that any shorter-term, colder deviations on a local level may simply belie the more insidious impacts of climate change. Oceans are the Earth's "Heat Sink" The warming that we have experienced on land while going about our daily lives over the course of the past few decades is certaintly the most obvious manifestation of climate change. Note that temperatures have been running upwards of several degrees above the longer-term baseline in areas of the US. Although the US is the point of focus within this particular context, this of course, is not a phenomenon that is relegated to just the US, or North America for that matter. In fact, the average temperature has risen 2 degrees F on a global level since the late 1800s due to greenhouse gas from anthropogenic emissions impeding the ability of heat to escape out into space as liberally as it used to (NOAA). This creates quite the conundrum since only about 30% of incoming solar irradiance is reflected back into space. The remaining 70% is stored on earth, with 20% being absorbed by the atmosphere, and 50% harbored in the land and sea. The implication here is that less heat is able to escape with time, which means that the surplus of heat in the atmosphere, land and sea is growing, thus accelerating the rate of said warming. This is evidenced by the fact that the rate of warming spanning the 50 years since 1975 is three times that of the warming over the span of the 75 years from 1850 to 1975. Furthermore, 2024 marked the 10th consecutive year that was declared the warmest on record across the globe (NASA), despire the fact that it was widely perceived as having been a relatively cold winter throught much of the US. The obvious deduction here is that the world is warming at an accelerating rate due to the fact that anthropogenic emissions are causing the roughly 30% of solar heat that is escaping back into space to decline even further, thus increasing the heat surplus. Needless to say, the rate at which said warming is accelerating seems extraordinary enough in-and-of-itself. However, in order to fully appreciate the magnitude and scope of the issue at hand, one must understand that according to NOAA, approximately 91 percent of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the oceans. This is both because oceans account for about 70% of the surface of the earth, and can absorb more heat without a rise in temperature than land. Thus it is evident why the aforementioned growing surplus of heat has rendered the oceans the largest solar energy collector on earth (NOAA via Climate.gov 2025), which entails that they are sure to be instrumental in the modification of weather patterns due to the atmosphere-sea interface. The implication here is that although the warming of the air temperature is the most apparent to the earth's population and is dramatic enough in-and-of-itself, it actually greatly understimates the true magnitude of the changes that are taking place, and the degree to which the atmosphere is impacted. Possible Ramifications of Immense Ocean Warmth El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is frequently referenced at Eastern Mass Weather due to it's crucial role in the distribution of heat around the globe via convective processes, which represent the very essence of the complex system of land, sea and air interaction that dictates weather patterns. The budgeting of heat is the vehicle that drives said weather patterns and is thus the reason weather exists, which underscores the crucial role that oceans play in this process given that they comprise the vast majority of area on the planet. Thus they have the greatest capacity to store heat by many magnitudes of order more than land and atmosphere. This is clear when considering how the most pronounced accelerations in global warming have coincided with the most powerful El Nino events. The inference here is that it is crucial to consider the area of ocean that is warming the most, as this will represent the focal point for the convective processes that will strive to redistribute said heat in the interest of obtaining a global atmospheric equilibrium. Additionally, once said heat nodes become anomalous enough and of sufficient depth, the feedback between the sea and air can be established and become self-sustaining. Thus SSTS and conditions near the ground can reenforce a given atmospheric regime in the absence of a major catalyst for change. When considering the graphic below, it is apparent that the largest increase in oceanic heat content has occurred in the western Pacific, with a secondary area off of the northeast US coast to the south of Newfoundland. These areas are not coincidental and are likely a byproduct of both the prevailing trades as regulated by the Walker Cycle (West Pacific), and perhaps the melting of sea ice slowing the warming in the higher latitudes (near New Foundland). These maxima of heat content are in areas that correlate with both +WPO and +NAO. Accordingly, there has indeed been an increased tendency towards the DJFM winter period being biased towards +WPO/+NAO in the mean that has been remarkably evident since the major El Niño event of 2015-2016 accelerated the warming. In fact, since 2016, only two seasons have averaged a -WPO (2016-2017, 2021-2022) and just one season has averaged a -NAO (2020-2021). This would seem to imply that this is at least partially attributable to some sort of feedback accentuated by the stored ocean heat content that is a byproduct of climate change. Note the similarity to the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) correlation map in terms of both temps, as well as the 500mb pattern over the US during DM period over the course of the past decade, which validates the premise that the west Pacific has been the prevailing catalyst in the pattern. While the vast majority of the country has been running above the 1951-2010 climatology base owed to the general background warming, it is clear how the magnitude of said warmth is weighted disproportionately in that it is much more intense across the eastern portion of the country. The eastern half of the country has been running several degrees warmer than average, while areas of the Pacific north west coast hardly at all. This is due at least in part to the aforementioned heat maximum over the west Pacific, which has come to be known as the West Pacific Warm Pool. This immense warmer body of water, which is likely attributable to some combination of climate change and natural variation, has caused the convective pattern known as the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) to spend an inordinately excessive amount of time in the maritime continent (MC) phases of 4-7 as a result of the aforementioned tropical convective processes that act to budget and redistribute the immense amount of stored heat around the globe. These are phases that correlate with greater heights and warmer weather over the eastern half of the country during the winter season, which is precisely what has occurred in the mean over this span of time. Note the implied tendency for any periods of negative NAO ridging to adjoin with the southeast ridge in place to the south, which has rendered high latitude blocking less effective for facilitating large east coast snowstorms during this time. The limitations of the increased propensity for +NAO in terms of snowfall were on full display during February 2025, as this month featured somewhat of a relaxation of the pronounced +WPO, but continued with an extreme positive NAO pattern. This focused the cold and primary storm track to the west, although it was still the snowiest month across southern New England because the warmth was not prohibitive, and the +NAO allowed for a more active storm track. However, the majority of these storms were mixed and there were no KU type events, which limited snowfall potential. The absence of a strongly negative NAO month, presumably due to the Modoki La Nina materializing during the westerly phase of the QBO in such close proximity to solar maximum, is a notable distinction between the 2024-2025 winter season and the 2017-2018 analog. This undoubtedly played a major role in the relative dearth of snowfall this past winter because it allowed for primary storm systems to track inland later in the season, especially during the months of February and March, as compared to the 2017-2018 season. Additionally, bonafide and extended periods of negative NAO blocking have been harder to come by in this modern era given the stronger Pacific jet, which has been seemingly omnipresent during the winter for the past several years, and has worked in conjunction with the aforementioned SST forcing to bias the mean pattern in favor of +NAO. There are also areas outside of the polar domain where an active Pacific jet can de-constructively interfere with major east coast cyclogenesis in perhaps a more subtle manner. More Active Modern Pacific Jet Inhibiting Major East Coast Snowfalls The active jet in conjunction with +NAO in the seasonal mean also makes it extremely difficult to sustain a positve (+) Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern ridge in a conducive location for long enough to facilitate the development of a major east coast snow storm, even during intervals in which the larger scale pattern is "favorable". Winter 2024-2025 200mb zonal wind anomaly: This was very evident earlier in the 2024-2025 season, whereas the +NAO in-and-of-itself was the largest mitigating factor later in the season in terms of east coast snowfall. Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and thus tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast despite a -NAO having been in place. This was a theme of the season, and for the most part, the last decade. The formidable jet makes it more difficult to sustain high latitude blocking for long enough intervals of time to prevent inland storm tracks, and when high latitude blocking is in place, the intensity and position of the PNA ridge can not be sustained. Having the atmospheric players aligned properly as to foster the development of major east coast snow storms is a tall enough task looking back throughout history, and during modern times the needle to be threaded has become even thinner. Note how there was a considerable reprieve from the post 2015 modern era Pacific jet during the 2017-2018 season, which included several major east coast winter storms. This represented quite a deviation from the very active Pacific jet that has become so evident in our modern climate. It is clear how much less pronounced and briefer the reprieve from the maritime continent fueled jet was that allowed the January 2022 KU event to materialize. The Pacific jet during the 2021-2022 winter was still as potent as the modern era in the seasonal mean, and in fact featured an even stronger jet than this past season, which nonetheless failed to "thread the needle" and produce a major east coast snowfall. The needle that was threaded during January 2022 was very thin indeed. It is clear that the the jet last year, while indeed weaker relative to the 2016-2025 modern mean, was still stronger than it was during the 2017-2018 season. However, it was perhaps a bit weaker than that of the 2021-2022 season, which implies that there of course remains some room for variation counter to the longer term trend. This is a trend that will need to be watched moving forward in subsequent years, as a continuation could result in a rather precipitous decline in snowfall along the east coast. The likelihood of this happening is undoubtedly closely tethered to just how much of these changes are attributed to climate change versus natural variation, and a definitive answer to this question likely will not be obvious for many years to come. Pacific Jet Excitement Product of Climate Change Versus Natural Variation A case can be made for natural variability with respect to both the tendency for +WPO and +NAO, as especially the WPO has demonstrated such behavior in the past. Multidecadal NAO Tendency Clearly Biased More Positive Than At Any Other point On Record This is important because the enhanced Pacific jet that has been growing increasingly prominent over the past 30 years or so is undoubtedly, at least to some degree, a byproduct of the gradient between the consistent cold over Siberia, and warmth in the vicinity of Japan that is characteristic of the predominately +WPO pattern that has been so prevalent since 2016. While this current predominately +WPO cycle is relatively comparable to those of the past, it is very clear that the intensity of the aforementioned Pacific jet has been inexorably entering uncharted territory. Note how much more prominent this feature has become when considering its' evolution since the nascent stages of climate change in the 1990s. It is also clear from the previously posted graphic that the multi-decadal NAO tendency has been trending higher than at any other time in recorded history. Therefore, the safe assumption is that it is highly likely that climate change is playing a significant role in the augmention of some of these modern trends with respect to the tendency for a +WPO/+NAO predominate regime, and more robust Pacific jet. Thus this should be factored into any seasonal outlook moving forward, as it will be this one

"Mere" is your word; not mine. You seem more defensive here than necessary here, dude. I didn't subversively diminish anyone. Right or wrong, you have a strong opinion on this subject matter is all I implied, which has been validated by your response. I made no inference concerning the validity of your claims...but to that point, you seem to be under the impression that all peer reviewed concepts are always absolutely, 100% correct...sorry, that is false. Again, this is just a general assertion. I'm not sure how me doubting that La Nina is a complete non-factor this season turned into a denial of CC. May I also suggest some reading for you, as well? Read this: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html And this...then tell me I deny CC. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/winter-2025-2026-offers-return-to.html

Yikes, I'd agree. 24.8 IMBY.

I know not in this case, per se....I get it...neutral MJO. But you do have a proclivity to minor ENSO at baseline given your stance on CC. JMHO.....if you don't think so, we can respectfully leave it at that.

Yea, I could see that...I have not, and won't even look at this...just try not to have it be a PIA. lol

I also don't think this particular La Nina is a good specimen to test these theories because it's never been particularly robust.

I agree with John that this is unlikely to be a La Nina like late season...we can leave it at that.

Ice all night? I'll believe that when I see it....if it is, it will probably be a situation where it accretes on surfaces that no one cares about, like mailboxes....

I hope it's plain rain here.

MEI does....and like I said, assuming it is dead, there is a reason that the ONI encompasses a tri-monthly period. I understand you are dug in on this given your thoughts on CC....I get it. We don't always have to agree on everything.

Yea, it doesn't help, but more to it.

Well, only if you went with a generic, boiler-plate-ENSO forecast....really immaterial AFAIC because I did not....that said, the RONI and MEI are still down there, so that would give me pause before summarily declaring it dead. That said, the sensible weather moving forward probably won't hurt your argument if you want to claim that...but I would argue the inverse of what you say when we have ENSO congruent sensible weather by chance, despite your argument that it really isn't coupled or the "driving force" per se. Assuming it is dead, people like to conveniently dismiss the notion of a lag, too....it doesn't just "shut off"...but this event was fairly weak, anyway....which is part of the reason I didn't go very warm in February.

He has some bizarre preoccupation with ENSO events ending early....always hammers that every year and it never happens.

I'll sell any big coastal mid-month.

Not happening DJF in the east this season. Take that to the bank. Only shot is March if the SSW doesn't materialize for some reason, but it should.

It's dead when the atmosphere says it is.....you don't suffer from the symptoms of many viruses until they are essentially "dead", but you probably don't consider yourself "healthy".

I don't think that will necessarily be the case this year.

Define "well above average"....if you mean like +5F, I don't think you're getting that anytime soon.

Anywho....here was my progression for January from last fall....doesn't look half bad. January 10-13 January 13-16 January 18-21 Ridge Over CONUS & Southern Canada Retrogrades Towards Alaska January 23-26 January 28-31 Early February

We all do it....except Will....he's a cyborg developed in the bowels of NCEP.