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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do, but not during the summer....I consider that before the final write up....I go back and compare summer composites to find fits to the current year.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    @GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1How does this composite look now? I tweaked by subtracting the 1941-1970 climo period to wash out a lot of the lower heights and accentuate the positive anomalies in an effort to better capture the changing climate.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Believe me, take the +AO pattern now....good sign looking ahead IMO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lukey likey girth?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I prefer it cooler, but this isn't awful.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't pay particularly close attention to the weather pattern this time of year in the mid latitudes, so I was excited hearing how "summer is over"...and "fall weather is here". I honestly kept waiting, and waiting...had a gander at the P & C to see 80s for as far as the eye can see. ..was like 'W in the ACTUAL F?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    My grass is growing so slowly at this point...like night and day from April-June.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm with you on this...."cool" pattern was hyped up by some, it's really just warm instead of hot.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, temps aren't nearly as prohibitive at your latitude.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Always are....we could get 100", and someone like me would flip because Tolland or Weymouth got 103".
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think we particularly prone because baseline assumptions aren't high...everyone excepts at least one month of like +8....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the MEI for coupling...I use the RONI more to gage how much MC influence there may be as a result of SST thermal distribution, but kind of related...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tri.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that fits...we've avoided the big heat, but def. not fall like.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but not just him...it's been pretty widespread. Doesn't seem like a cool pattern to me. It's not "hot", but seems at least seasonable...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am at 2.4-2.6 RONI and 2.7 to 2.9 ONI peak as now.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had .45"...largely from one early PM heavy shower.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I keep reading on social media is how summer is over, fall is here in the east, blah, blah...then I look at the official forecast, and it's 80s for as far as the eye can see.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Once we get past cool ENSO episode, it's lights-out for the multidecadal Pac cold phase.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just being a d1ck. What other factors do you feel are influencing it?
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