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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guidance is def. coming into better agreement on this remaining pretty east-based, as the CANSIPS is now in better agreement with the EURO in that regard, but I still think it tries to become more equally distributed once it peaks....but probably gets placed in the east-based bin when all said in done.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats Apps and OHRV.
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  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewaveInteresting how the EURO seasonal likes the OHRV for snowfall...maybe due to some modification of the STJ that you have referenced....also fits with a PDO that never goes wholesale positive.
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  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's easy to look at the color scheme and want to take a plunge off of the Tobin, but it's not bad at all and fits with the more fruitful super El Nino scenarios.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me...entirely reasonable.
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  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sept. EURO seasonal has DJF snowfall about 9" below average inside of rt 128, and 6" below average outside. I have no issue with that forecast. Western New England is 4-5" below.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went 2.4 to 2.6 for a tri monthly RONI peak a few weeks ago...could be a touch conservative, but I find it's best to err on the side of caution when guidance is signaling an unprecedented anomaly. It looked even worse then.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yikes, look out down below, @weathafella
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least I shouldn't have to worry about OES lines streaming over se MA...much rather take my chances with slush.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the EURO was better...but I'm willing to bet that the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC have missed by more than the CFS.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue.
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  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Use of sensible weather analogs will pose a unique challenge this year given the rapid state of flux throughout the hemisphere....you can't take them at face value. -EPO predominated Winter 2018-2019, so given that this season should have a +EPO, flipping the anomalies may provide some value. Coolest se, warmest high plains.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2018 looks like the early leader in the clubhouse.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Time to start compiling a sensible weather analog composite....last one prior to the outlook.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any insight as to potential windows that are less hostile for the east coast?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since the drop is due to the El Nino being focused east of 3.4 right now, rather then any type of reduced expression of El Nino across the hemisphere
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are 100% right as it pertains to the seasonal mean, but I think the trick is to try and focus on when the pattern may stray from said mean. I think that is where the more skilled forecasters have a chance to distinguish themselves. Same thing as if it we have a fall of 2009 type regime....that was a an obvious snow-season for the mid atl leading in, but when are the thaws??
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