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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    No idea.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's camped there from July-through September, too.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundland cold pool in November.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
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