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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I mean that that PV is going to ultimately incur a severe disruption that will end in a split, after the stretching of the next few weeks.
  2. I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split. We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.
  3. The theme for latter January will be stretching....the knock out punch comes in February.
  4. Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.
  5. There will be something of significance this month...we aren't making it to February in single-digits.
  6. Well said. I think CC is playing a part in the absence of winter weather over the past several years, but it's not "the new norm"....it's just accentuating and protracting these oscillations. Just my take...I think it also played a role in the snow-blitz of 2015.
  7. Kicking myself for not hitting 2017 harder in my December composite....would have mitigated missing on the magnitude of the cold.
  8. @GaWxLarry, it has that El Niño look because of the Pacific airmass....that is what I tried to capture in my January composite....pretty similar look with months like January 2006 and 2002 in there.
  9. Yet BOX tossed my March 2018 measurement....asses.
  10. Yea, I feel like the real window starts when the MJO hits 7....like 24th ish....
  11. I would like to see phase 8...the MJO has still had an allergy to phase 8 over the course of the past couple of seasons, despite the cold, which is part of the reason why the haven't seen the snow.
  12. Yea, something clearly has changed....we just need to wait on the snow get the memo.
  13. I agree, but gonna have to wait this out....CC is definitely more feast or famine....but shit, someone tell Mother Nature it's time to eat.
  14. Agree with above, but def very modest departures.
  15. Yea, you also said something to the effect of "am I crazy for thinking we could go on a Jan 2011 type of run". That is when I responded with the lack of blockbuster cool ENSO months of February. I know that wasn't a forecast per se...breaking balls...
  16. I was being facetious, but you did mention you could see a stretch like that like a couple of days ago.
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