40/70 Benchmark

Told you guys last week this 18-19th deal was the one to watch-

Yes, it's not like the potential went unrealized on a hemispheric scale...

Shocked.....

The energy doesn't really coalesce until the Maritimes, though. Just didn't dig enough.

The persistent +WPO portion has obviously started to shift already, and the behavior of the MJO will eventually follow suite.....but that is lagging, which is at least part of the reason why we still have a dearth of large east coast storms despite a N Pac more conducive to cold...also some plane bad luck, I'm sure.

Well, the gradient between the stagnant cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan not only accentuates the jet, but emphasizes the n PAC placement ...it goes hand-in-hand. That is starting to change... The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites. However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less propounded than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time. How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence. This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet. Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward. Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean.

Not as much as you think....models have still been far too zealous with phase 8 residence time and amplification....I worked this into my outlook and called BS in December, which was correct. A lot of it is due to the west warm pool biasing convection out there, and I do think it will shift eventually. Thus SSTS and conditions near the ground can reenforce a given atmospheric regime in the absence of a major catalyst for change. When considering the graphic below, it is apparent that the largest increase in oceanic heat content has occurred in the western Pacific, with a secondary area off of the northeast US coast to the south of Newfoundland. These areas are not coincidental and are likely a byproduct of both the prevailing trades as regulated by the Walker Cycle (West Pacific), and perhaps the melting of sea ice slowing the warming in the higher latitudes (near New Foundland). These maxima of heat content are in areas that correlate with both +WPO and +NAO. Accordingly, there has indeed been an increased tendency towards the DJFM winter period being biased towards +WPO/+NAO in the mean that has been remarkably evident since the major El Niño event of 2015-2016 accelerated the warming. In fact, since 2016, only two seasons have averaged a -WPO (2016-2017, 2021-2022) and just one season has averaged a -NAO (2020-2021). This would seem to imply that this is at least partially attributable to some sort of feedback accentuated by the stored ocean heat content that is a byproduct of climate change. Note the similarity to the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) correlation map in terms of both temps, as well as the 500mb pattern over the US during DM period over the course of the past decade, which validates the premise that the west Pacific has been the prevailing catalyst in the pattern. While the vast majority of the country has been running above the 1951-2010 climatology base owed to the general background warming, it is clear how the magnitude of said warmth is weighted disproportionately in that it is much more intense across the eastern portion of the country. The eastern half of the country has been running several degrees warmer than average, while areas of the Pacific north west coast hardly at all. This is due at least in part to the aforementioned heat maximum over the west Pacific, which has come to be known as the West Pacific Warm Pool. This immense warmer body of water, which is likely attributable to some combination of climate change and natural variation, has caused the convective pattern known as the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) to spend an inordinately excessive amount of time in the maritime continent (MC) phases of 4-7 as a result of the aforementioned tropical convective processes that act to budget and redistribute the immense amount of stored heat around the globe. These are phases that correlate with greater heights and warmer weather over the eastern half of the country during the winter season, which is precisely what has occurred in the mean over this span of time.

That is when it should be come better, as the MJO hits 7.

I think part of it is the behavior of the MJO deconstructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...but agree on over-attribution.

At some point that will start happening again....we just don't know when, as Wolfie would say....

Yea, either way, it's not going to be December 5, 1981....I just meant qualitatively speaking...not amounts.

Seems like east has better shot at accumulating snow per guidance...I think that is what he meant.

Take a look at this event....Sunday night is a toned down version, but it happens...accept and deal.

Hang in there....I don't think it will stay boring. Sunday night will probably be mainly east of you, admittedly, but it's going to get active.

I hate the cold without snow, but I do long for one of those days when I was kid...temp would be dropping through the single digits during the afternoon and be zero by nightfall. We used to get those more in the 80s...

This period was always supposed to be mild...NBD.

Yea, that's a nice 'lil Miller B-East specimen for MLK...been sparse past several years.

I see some falling into the trap of dismissing everything due to an ill-fated threat failing to materialize......big mistake.

Buy.

We're going to get a real nice stretch...no way this season ends early like last year. And if you remember a year ago, I was slamming the early spring drum. I knew that one was over.

Except mid January, as was outlined last fall.

But La Nina is dead!!!!

Yea, I've been on the big-finish train. You have to think it starts up soon...probably when the MJO hits 7.

Guessing no, since posts went "poof" faster than the long range PD II.