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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Enter Bluewave with the modled Pac jet being the storngest of the past several on the Euro seasonal "We'll have to see if the temp composites adjust to account for that as they have the last 7 years in this new, warmer climate".
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take your pick form the last several lol I think the EPS was actually better with that? I thought GFS was worst and Australian was best.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't feel like there is any piece of data that you wouldn't be able to come up with a fatalistic take on.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The impact of the IOD is so nebulous...I feel like every attribution to that is voodoo. The only thing I hang my hat on is that it serves as a protective factor for the development of cool ENSO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Second year Nina seasons don't necessarily have to be awful, though...71-72, 08-09...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are we won't see consecutive strongly +PNA la Nina seasons....end of story.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    February 06 was largely luck...pattern was awful. March 2006 was actually better, but ended up cold and dry.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, my bad. I thought you meant in general.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why???
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no issue with that...totally reasonable take.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have already asked Santa for some pro winter posts from @snowman19for Christmas....he has his work cut out for him.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think most would sign for wintry holiday period, regardless of what was in the fine print of the deal with the devil.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is definitely some warmer risk mid season...no doubt.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    November 2024 was moderately strong and 2023 was stronger.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the predominate MC forcing constructively interferes there, whereas it decontructively interferes with +PNA in conjunction with the enhanced Pac jet.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, regardless of the semtnics of the MJO criteria, we agree on that general point.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on the wave reflection, but I also suspect it's followed up by a SSW, thereafter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasonal +WPO.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.
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