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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like Allison would rather not find out....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shocker.... He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO. Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Let me guess....he favors big time blocking.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No...2 years removed, approaching geomagnetic peak.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    41.9 this AM.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se....... 23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge. Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that matters.....I think you're being a bit too linear. The EURO has it a good handle on this and it has the forcing near 160W, too. Maybe it's wrong, but I don't see any reason to assume that is the case.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    @GaWxI would say around 120W.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I usually go with orientation at peak as most representative of the winter season, so December should be pretty representative. I agree, CANSIPS is off.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The December output def. seems further off than the DJF mean, though, Nick.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm more confident of a KU for the mid atl than I am here...the pressing of the Canadian ridge is a concern.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not happening at this latitude.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there, it's initialization of the Pacific, both tropical and mid latitudes, has left a great deal to be desired.
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