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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    1991 and 2018 also on the dewy list.....1991 was a strong El Nino with essentially neutral PDO and 2018 weak El Nino with decidedly negative PDO....both made my extra tropical Pacific analog composite.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting that two of those "low dew August" years on top, 1957 and 1982, lead into strong El Nino events...the bottom "dewy August" list is comprised of predominately cool ENSO...yet here we are, heading that list. Tell me that the extra tropical Pacific is still at odds with ENSO without telling me-
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good assessment....that's where I'm at.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree...see where we're at in a few months. If we're still deeply negative, then I'll acquiesce, but I anticipate getting to around neutral.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    ECMWF hints at this, though I think this is exaggerated....likely closer to the coast than this. That is a resolution issue...like when the GFS places the CF near ORH a few days out from a storm.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Roundy's stuff favors W Canada.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would do okay, but could def. see it being an ORH season...they have had some uncharacteristically skunkish seasons of late....gonna see that regress.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS January rendition would make some fun times for WOR folks....Miller B-East, much?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Has December near normal surprisingly. Is it a bit too cold? Probably....likely underdoing the magnitude and arial extent of that Canadian ridge, but I don't think this will be a bottom-dweller season in terms of snowfall.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is January:
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do, but not during the summer....I consider that before the final write up....I go back and compare summer composites to find fits to the current year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    @GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1How does this composite look now? I tweaked by subtracting the 1941-1970 climo period to wash out a lot of the lower heights and accentuate the positive anomalies in an effort to better capture the changing climate.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Believe me, take the +AO pattern now....good sign looking ahead IMO.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lukey likey girth?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I prefer it cooler, but this isn't awful.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't pay particularly close attention to the weather pattern this time of year in the mid latitudes, so I was excited hearing how "summer is over"...and "fall weather is here". I honestly kept waiting, and waiting...had a gander at the P & C to see 80s for as far as the eye can see. ..was like 'W in the ACTUAL F?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    My grass is growing so slowly at this point...like night and day from April-June.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm with you on this...."cool" pattern was hyped up by some, it's really just warm instead of hot.
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