No, you don't get it. My point isn't that it will miss just because earlier episodes of blocking did not result in a big coastal, rather my response to Tony was meant to illustrate that a decaying NAO block does not necessarily have to result in a major coastal. I don't like the position of the ridge in the plains.
Yea, I wasn't claiming the storm will miss just because the GEFS and EURO AI didn't nail us, rather I was just clarifying that they didn't in fact nail us this run. I don't think we'll get crushed, but that isn't why.