40/70 Benchmark

Working on this in tandem with January wrap today.

Very insightful, and dead-on.

Snow growth should be better this weekend....it was lacking until that final stanza Monday night in this past event.

0.7". Thanks.

Even that QPF chart, as is, argues for prolific deformation from like Steve up through my area here in the MRV....crude rule of thumb is right near the QPF gradient, which at this range is only detecting lower level forcing.

Looks like 0.6" here? Do you slightly further N? TIA.

Do you feel dirty?

I can tell you how I would cope if this ever missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) is a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.

I wonder if the CFS incorporates more of that analog data...no clue, just thinking out loud, as that would explain the violence.

Well, it probably whiffed....not that it's beneath him.

I think barring a significant regression, you can start tuning up the plows EOR because I don't see how this doesn't get banding well west of model depictions....again, assuming it doesn't verify further east.

It's also important for us in the east as far as high-end potential is concerned.....I would cap things around a foot if it were to close off so far south.

I think worst case is my nightmare scenario that played out 4 years ago with the deform band handing just east of me, but could very well end up west.

I'll bet DZ ends up well west of me...worried up a Boxing Day outcome with low level fronto pinned to coast, but that's a concern for late week.

I do.

Almost time for to draft, anyway, stop looking for snow.

IDK if anyone read my blog post from yesterday, but I laid out the reasons why I think that will take place....aside from the fact that the depth of this thing is exotically anomalous as is, which is tacit.

I was about to say that and I think we see other guidance trend in that direction with the ULL....it's coming N.

I'm confident.

That event sucked up here.

This is why I'll need the deformation zone or it's subby city.

Absolutely agreed.

Thanks.

Verification of High Impact & Long-Duration Sunday-Monday Winter Storm Strong Forecast Leaves Room For Improvement Overall the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for the major winter storm that impacted the forecast area from Sunday through Monday verified quite well. However, the coastal front enhancement was somewhat misdiagnosed, as the front itself was pinned slightly closer to the coast than anticipated. The forecast for the front to penetrate into roughly the I 495 corridor was predicated up global guidance. But as it turned out, mesoscale guidance, which pinned the front closer to the coast, or along rt 128 and near I 95 on the north shore, proved to be more accurate. This is why highest amounts ended up along the coast (Gloucester, MA, 27"), (Ipswich, MA, 26"), rather than near the I 495 belt. Be that as it may, amounts of two feet, and event slightly more, were reported throughout much of northeastern Massachusetts, with a secondary on the east slope of the Worcester hills (Sterling, MA, 25.2"), as forecast. Final Grade: A

Strong forecast overall yesterday, with the only glitch being that max amounts were a couple of inches higher and more along the coast than expected...in large part due to the fact that the coastal front ended up getting pinned a bit closer to the coast than I had thought. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/verification-of-high-impact-long.html