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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which part did CC contribute to? All of it....the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute heat, so the rapid warming of the climate is acutely relevant in that respect.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    They why did the 2023 El Niño have a very meager GOA low presence despite a peak ONI of 2.0?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No to the first, but as far as as the second....not the RONI itself, but the disconnect that it represents may to an extent...and that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the east, either.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks about the same for me....about 15" below average seems reasonable. No complaints.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is the best link for the deep mind ensemble suite? Ugh...I didn't want to, as I'm about to jump into winter outlook mode, but the tropics call. Man, I'm sick-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking last night that the correction vector is usually east with a poleward moving tropical cyclones and an approaching front.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Yea, this admin. has killed funding for data......it's why we lost N/CAR1 and the monthly QBO tabular data is no longer updated.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I found that, but not the super ensemble plot...his data seems to be in flux as he is in the process of moving to that site.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around. Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it. https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html# This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, should be more a hydro concern than a wind issue....strikes me as a system that will be weakening well before landfall.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity. Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really...I basically agreed. Lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I strongly disagree.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I try to keep it objective, as we all should.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    October Euro seasonal gives me 46.3" of snowfall from November-April...same, exact total as 1997-1998.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only interesting weather on the coastal plane of Mass is winter weather....unless you want to count hurricanes, which have been absent since 1991.
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