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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right's...it's attenuating....closing lows over NYS and antecedent dry air doesn't scream S+ to me.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    My counter to that is that while closed mid level lows are good, having them over NYS isn't.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....these are qualitative changes, though...not quantitative. The storm is getting further north, but the mechanics of it are the same, thus we have the same limitations....all I meant. Hey, I hope you are right and there are widespread 10"+ amounts...I just don't see it right now.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I hear that....I get the limitations, as I was just saying to Wolfie, but I do think a 5" cap is a bit stringent...EURO is a hair light on QPF IMHO, but yea...toss the GFS 12" clown-kuchie to Mars.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    All of JD's booze and food on me at the next GTG if anyone in SNE gets 12".
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Confluence backed off a bit and it's coming further north, but the characterization of the storm hasn't changed....it's a moderate system abutting strong confluence...if anything, it's attenuating on approach.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Irrelevant.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even there, very isolated if so...but I was referring to SNE.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is getting 12".
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK...10:1 on the EURO has no one over 5"...I feel like a bit of a blend is in order, at least.....I am fine with the EURO Kuchie, but ignore the GFS product.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We always see a few rouge OP runs trying to up the ante on these deals, but we know that they are.....dynamics are really limited to a relatively short window. 10"+ amounts are very isolated if they do occur.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just think it's wise to modulate expectations based on past experiences with systems of this ilk, rather than every permutation of model consensus. I'm annoyed that I caved on first call and had everything so far SW instead of sticking to my guns it would move north.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow....man, that is far north-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still wouldn't pin hopes to many double-digit totals....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably bands from ORH to you...a rough rule of thumb is that the bending tends to follow the QPG gradient...
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can already see it this year...one west on 12/2, north last one, even though I got the white xmas, and now southwest...every direction. Next one rainer (north)...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I didn't last year...just a dusting.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is a miracle....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going into the 2026 with 3" as my largest event.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doing my final in the AM, but probably 1-3" here if I had to guess now. You should get several inches.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neither have I lol
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm sure the dude that eye balls hour 360 GFS storms all winter is just pining to give one up to central park
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not even sweating this one...if I steal an inch or two, great.....but Kev may very well steal some tri-state troll's snow
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