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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are right, but I highly doubt we see another one like that given how similar 2023-2024 was to 1972-1973. I think El Nino ends up weaker and further west than that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I agree. I don't think weak, but nor do I think 2.0+.....so we can work with that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure.....I've been at that point for about an hour.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Give a replica season of 1977-1978 and 1995-1996...I'll bet against a Feb 1978 redux and 127.5" of snowfall IMBY.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It would't be.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take 82-83 or 23-24 over 2009-2010 any day. I get what you are saying, though...it was flukey that it was that bad here...blocking was so extreme.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it sucked as it was where I am...so not a big leap. Do I think DC would have still had 75" or whatever? No, I don't.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh in that case, I'd love to relive it and spike my nerf football.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, not far, but not ideal....and couldn't catch a break.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Goes hand-in-hand...weaker overall would have likely diminished the degree of warmth that leaked east.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank our battle ship. There was probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. I probably oversimplified it due to the perfunctory nature of the dialogue to prove a point. I'm more nuanced in the actual analysis.
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