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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I called BS on that early on.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe something like this?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are right, but I highly doubt we see another one like that given how similar 2023-2024 was to 1972-1973. I think El Nino ends up weaker and further west than that.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I agree. I don't think weak, but nor do I think 2.0+.....so we can work with that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something.
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