40/70 Benchmark

I call BS on those hyper El Nino runs......I'm not sure why those shouldn't be getting the same weenies attached to them that @MJO812's day 10 blizzard maps do during the winter. I mean, tell me what the difference is....long range guidance displaying an either highly anomalous, or unprecedented occurence.

We are due to a snowier El Nino in the NE....2015, 2018 and 2023 all sucked. I can't find an instance of four consecutive in that regard, although I'm sure @bluewave can scan through the Era data base and find one from the 1700s. 1987 was a pretty normal winter. 1991, 1994 and 1997 all sucked...then we had 2002. 1951 and 1953 were poor...then came 1957. There is value in anecdotal analysis, as long as it's buttressed with more empirical research.

That CFS does not have any trouble whatsoever popping a SE trough....2023 that is not. I get the time range, but that is every bit as valid as these 3.0 El Nino delusions. I am willing to bet that if the CFS were right, we see that prism between the RONI and ONI narrow over the course of the year, eventually meeting roughly midway between 1 and 2 by next winter.

I'll gladly take somewhat above normal temps to get copious precip.

Yea, need to take him with a grain of salt...I have noticed that you can really treat folks in the met community like models. They all have something to offer, but you are best suited to become familiar with their biases and tendencies in order to know how to screen their feedback and view them through the proper lens. Webb never simply offers an opinion or a take...it's always an OPINION or a TAKE. Perfect example of what social media does to an otherwise fine met.

Saw Northfield in the news yesterday...rough spot!

Over an inch in the "higher terrain"....?

How much?

I think folks are getting carried away with it this early to be frank. Not to say that winter can still suck...nothing to do with that.

Yes.

I wouldn't be so sure.

I never realized CC was so XXX.

We're onto next season.

It doesn't help that the increase in temps is more likely to be observed nocturnally, which doesn't help awareness/mindfullness. I'm not saying the daytime maxes aren't warming....they absolutely are, but it's just that it's realized to an even greater degree at night.

I went with +2 to +4 in my March review.

I would like to see the ONI coupled at around 1.7 or lower, and I bet we would see a better winter independent of the Modoki index.

It makes perfect sense to me that if the essence of El Nino is anonymously warm water modulating the Hadley Cell via enhanced convective activity, then warming up the water to the west of ENSO is going to reduce it's ability to do so because the MC is going to rob the ENSO region of some of that convection....ie it's a competing force.

I am willing to bet that if we were to ditch the gap between the RONI and ONI, or even have the ONI lag the RONI, we would get lower heights in the southeast....my guess is in order achieve that we are going continue to have to see that western Pac warmth spread eastward, which would help to reduce that persistent, residual cool ENSO residue. Again, don't mistake me overvaluing the RONI in-and-of-itself....it's what it represents, which is the surplus of western Pacific warmth relative to the eastern Pacific reducing the ability of +ENSO to couple with the atmosphere, and thus modulate the northern Pacific in the manner that we would like.

I was wondering about that...how do we trust such aged data...that said, I am not going to contest the fact that ambient heights were lower back then.

2015 having a weaker se trough relative to 1997 is entirely consistent with what I am proposing, since the RONI lagged the ONI in 2025, and it did not in 1997. I made the same mistake in 2015 that I did in 2023 in mistaking the warmer west Pacific for more of a Modoki signal. I will not do that again.

Makes sense with descending solar....probably more to come next several years.

I'll bet we can salvage that...we just ended an incredible decade of predominately +WPO....it just flipped this past season, so probably due for continued regression there.

I hope so.

Yea, looks like WPO is going to be key to salvage a decent northeast snowfall season...only 1982 wasn't a disaster, which has a -WPO.

Probably, so I am willing to bet it will stink, aside from maybe one great storm. I don't feel as optimistic after seeing that RONI vs ONI relationship, as I was already leery of that after 2023.. Still plenty of time to and data to consider, though. I do wonder if we see that gap begin to close, though with the changes underway in the Pacific..that maybe what we need.