Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,161

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't have a -PNA. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be with respect guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know Wall, so I'll take your word for it. I think most on this board would agree that my only agenda is getting the forecast correct, and placing much stock into a model with such a poor initialization of the Pacific basin, both ENSO and extra tropical, gives me significant pause before seriously considering it's output. This isn't about CC, or how well the model did last year....it's about the fact that it has such an obviously poor read on the Pacific.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic? Good luck-
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Music to my eyes, ears and weenie.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Output looks okay on satelitewx.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    @stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That doesn't change the fact that it's initialization of the Pacific is off, so I would still adjust warmer....but that does make a little more sense. Yea, H5 for August at one month lead was good, but that doesn't mean that is always the case every month.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts. No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    -AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah, okay...that makes sense. I agree with that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    73-74 if it gets stronger...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog: Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded. The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat. Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened. The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear. The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter. Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios. The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.
×
×
  • Create New...