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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree...it will also be well above in the mean because were aren't getting cold of that magnitude, nor as protracted later in the season. I am NOT trying to imply that this year will be like the colder basin-wide seasons like 2002 when I call it basin-wide.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree 100% on this...but it's also important to remember that we DID get a crippling KU in January 2016 and we DID get a record breaking arctic outbreak in February. I am suggesting that same volatility here due to the basin-wide nature, not because El NINO is "dying", which is of course silly given the atmospheric lag.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea.....on the table as in the main course. I think a few are continuing to obfuscate the sheer magnitude of the event with the concept of "basin-wide". Yes, largest anomalies are east and the seasonal mean will likely resemble the east-based composite, but there are very strong anomalies throughout the ENSO region, so some volatility is likely. Basin-wide doesn't necessarily mean it can not, or will not act more like an east-based event in the end....some do, some don't.....there is more variability. I do agree that this one will look east based in the DJFM mean pattern, but I also think that there is a decent shot of month of MC and Modoki forcing...but yes, eat-based likely strongest.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably some sort of feedback between the atmosphere and melting ice.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good consensus on basin-wide super-event.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    My larger concern is MC competition a la 2023 versus how strongly east-based it is.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am willing to concede that the seasonal mean is going to more closely resemble the east-based composite given the shear magnitude of anomalies throughout the basin, but I think there is enough going on to the west to ensure window(s) of opportunity as climo grows more favorable.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am willing to bet @snowman19 $100 we see a NESIS level storm on the east coast during the coming season....should be "easy" money for you, right? 'Cmon....I'll hook you up-
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you need to keep an open-mind, as I tried to tell you last year at this time when you kept preaching about "canonical-front loaded La Niña". We all make mistakes, as lord knows I have (see 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2023), but the hope is that each mistake pries the mind open a little more and causes us to be more exhaustive in our approach, and less dismissive and derogatory towards alternative points of view. Latest anomalies from east (1.2) to west (4) 2026 17JUN2026 26.1 3.0 28.5 1.9 29.3 1.7 30.2 1.3 2023 14JUN2023 25.9 2.7 27.8 1.2 28.6 0.9 29.5 0.6 2015 17JUN2015 25.1 2.0 28.0 1.5 28.7 1.1 29.7 0.8 1997 18JUN1997 25.8 2.7 27.8 1.3 28.5 0.9 29.0 0.1 Sure looks basin-wide to me, and is forecast to remain as such.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it is a terrible analog for certain points throughout the second half of the season. I don't know why you continue to perceive analogs as being some absolute inference of a replica season. It's akin to tossing the 1997 analog because this one is more basin wide, which would of course be folly.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the 2014 shout out.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Are you certain that you didn't receive 17.574" last season? Lots of slat-stickers down there in the mid atl...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see how that has edged eastward a bit relative to the mean positioning from the past decade.... I expect that to the theme of the winter....better, but not quite there yet. Excerpt from my June update: What this implies is a season that will maintain some milder warm MC influence in the mean, especially given the degree to which intense El Niño events elevate global temperature, but with greater variability, which may very well appease east coast winter enthusiasts during the climatologically favored interval of the coming winter season. Indeed, it appears as though the wise early hedge is for winter 2026-2027 to have multiple personalities with increased volatility.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would gamble with that season again....it could have easily been like 1982 with near average snowfall if that February blizzard made it like 100 miles further north. Just accept that it isn't going to a cold season in the mean.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gun-to-head, I think our area may end up colder than 2015-2016, even though it may be comparable or warmer on a national level.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This sums up my feeling....the Pacific will be better than 2023, but we still have work to do.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My interpretation of the JMA and CANSIPS is that they are seeing something real, but are overemphasizing it. Regardless, it does bolster my confidence in a favorable period of Modoki like forcing during the second half. That said, I would agree with Snowman, and most, that we aren't getting a Modoki set up in the seasonal mean with an El Nino this strong.....I think that is what many register it as when those seasons are used as analogs and that should not be the case.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    BINGO.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may be NDJ.
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