40/70 Benchmark

Really not very warm in NE.

It will def. be a late-spring...that was always a given IMHO. Question remains RE how much snow is left in the balance.

Anyway, good discussion....this is why our threads are awesome.

Yes, it's a final warming, but point is it's not strong at any point in March, either.

Remember, Scott....we don't necessarily need the mother lobe of the PV in close proximity to have a productive March at this latitude. 2018 was a perfect example of that. Now granted, we aren't going to get the major SSW in time like we did that year and I thought we would this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean we won't get another round of stretching. Furthermore, this season has also already very aptly demonstrated a strong predisposition towards high latitude latitude blocking at least excuse imaginable due to the aforementioned strat-solar-ENSO overlay, which is what I meant by adhering to pre-season work. Where was the huge stratospheric smoking gun that triggered the latter January NAO blocking??

We didn't have the MJO constantly flexing in the MC and flatlining in the west Pac at that point.

Sounded like they never saw any chance of a SSW in February, until guidance actually showed it at like 10 days lead. It didn't work out, but my point is that group-think isn't very effective....this stuff isn't often apparent until very short leads. This harkens back to what I said to @Typhoon Tipyesterday, about letting the foundational pre-season work guide you.

Yea, back is brocken, but there remains a functional spine....it's not a paraplegic. I just think you need to be a bit more nuanced in your approach here.

That is February, first of all, second, our coldest weather actually comes from stretches, anyway...as we saw in January.

I think Scott is mistaken disregarding the strat consideration because there is no polar somersault imminent...,,there are a myriad of different ways that the stat can aid in the facilitation of cold delivery short of a titanic PV split, which I am still not entirely convinced will not ultimately occur, BTW.

Define "done"...

We'll probably have another legit light to moderate threat this month, but I think that vast majority of the balance of snowfall left comes in March....at least like 10-20" more to go.

Clear as day since late last summer that this is the type of season (strat-solar-ENSO combo) that doesn't go quietly.

I'll be schocked if we don't have some fun in March.

Looks like we have some sort of SWFE on deck CIRCA the 20th....

Tell it to join the club.

Verification of Messy Tuesday Evening Forecast Strong Effort Here is the Eastern Mass Weather forecast issued on Monday valid for last night's minor event. The forecast overall was very accurate, although there were a few amounts that narrowly exceeded the 1-3" range over the northern portion of the forecast, it was by a very small margin and they were few and far between. The outlier 6" report from Gloucester, MA is dismissed as being highly suspect. Final Grade: A

Strong Forecast for last night. Grade that one an "A". https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../verification... Storm potential for Monday remains very dubious. Here is the Eastern Mass Weather forecast issued on Monday valid for last night's minor event.

I went 60-70" here and I'm at 49.5" currently.

That must drop the whole PV nipple north of ME into the southern wave with absolute surgical aplomb.

Dude, I would have done that for you if we were a bit closer. Sorry, Steve.

December was yawnstipating...it's been good since.

I had 19" this AM...probably like 17" now.

Yes ..i said that earlier.