40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I don't see it. Hope he's right.

Yea, and most of it in the clouds.

I will say south/central CT has sneaky bullseye potential because sometimes they have a bit more access to the parent southern moisture flow that gets entrained into these things...Feb 2013 is a classic example. I never see that kind of banding.

GFS is wrong.

Doubt it, but hopefully...pathway to that is redevelopment happening a tick sooner and ramping Saturday up...I don't see the first half over performing.

I think I will be more like 3-4"....5-6" are north of me....in and up.

Final Call for Friday-Saturday Mess Mixed Bag Likely Across The Region A storm system streaking east-northeast from the plains will impact the area beginning on Friday and into at least the early portion of Saturday. Whereas vast majority of storms this season have featured primarily snowfall given the persistently cold temperatures, the track of this system is likely to complicate the forecast concerning precipitation type across the region. Synoptic Overview The next system slated to affect the region ejects from the Pacific trough out into the plains by early on Friday. It begins to weaken as it approaches the northeast due to the sharing influence of the compressed height field between the polar vortex/Hudson Bay block dyad to the north, and the increasing southeastern heights in response to the parent trough out west. As the system continues to weaken, it is eventually forced to redevelop off shore to the southeast as it encounters the confluence flow around the vortex in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes, which may act to prolong snowshoers and advect in colder air during the day on Saturday. Expected Storm Evolution: Light rain will break out over southwest portions of Connecticut by the midday hour. Mixed precipitation will overspeed the balance of the region throughout the afternoon, with snow/sleet being the predominate precipitation type roughly north of the Mass pike, and a sleet rain mixture points south. While evaporative cooling may result in a brief period of snowfall over northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Mass, accumulations should be very light as precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and rain as the decaying mid level low triggers a southwesterly flow and warm advection aloft as it passes though central New England. A brief period of icing over the higher train is possible, however, this should not pose a serious hazard. Accumulating snow should continue well into the evening north of the pike and especially route 2 into the mid portion of the evening, with primarily sleet between the pike and the I 84 and rainfall points south. Precipitation will taper off across western New England by midnight with a mixed bag continuing east, as redevelopment begins to occur off of the coast. While this redevelopment will occur too late to prevent the transition to sleet and rain that will prohibit a heavier snowfall accumulation across the area, it will perhaps prolong nuisance snow showers during the day on Saturday, as colder air is drawn in on a northeast flow, from the vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. While these snow showers should not result in much in the way of accumulation during the day on Saturday, some icy spots are possible where refreezing takes place due to colder air being advected in on northeast flow around the developing low offshore. Final Call First Call Issued Tuesday, February 17th

Final Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/final-call-for-friday-saturday-mess.html Final Call First Call Issued Tuesday, February 17th

Up to a coating

Right.

This is why KU s are rare.

My bad, Steve. Limits of not being able to detect tone combined with a fast-paced AM.

Nah, stressed doing a million things at once. I hope we get croacked and if I have my way, I'll be 1000% wrong.

I think anyone who puts that amount of time into being as clear and transparent as possible would be annoyed by that...just my take.

Okay, I'm a dick, you are a dick with reading comp deficiencies.

@Ginx snewxThis is from Tuesday...you tell me what my position was/is: What is also evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains. The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region. This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge. Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday. While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious. There remains plenty of time to maintain vigilance with respect to this major storm potential to end the week

@Ginx snewxThis is from Sunday blog: The largest storm potential exists in association with a potential coastal development on Monday, February 23, however, the early indication is that this system is likely to pass predominately out to sea and pose a larger threat to the Canadien Maritimes.

You maybe right...like I said, I just listened to his video on the way into the office. My original position was the confluence N of ME and the marginal quality/positioning of the ridge out west.

That was my original point. Just saw DT's video on the way in, maybe it's my fault bc I took it out of context or something.

I've always been on the OTS train with this. You want links? Let me know how much you end up with.

No. Watch DT's video. There is some sort of communication gap that I don't have time to bridge right now. Honest statement...it's not at all a shot at Brian.

They are connected. I know for me, understanding what boots it out to sea helps to determine how to get it to snow.

Well, whatever...we don't want it to do what the EURO has it doing.

Doesn't mean it's correct in doing so. The Euro correctly has that energy kick the developing blizzard out over the ocean.

We need the follow up crap over MN to weaken....DT mentioned that and it's a solid point.