40/70 Benchmark

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

Which means we can probably get away with some bout(s) of blocking this year, theoretically speaking. Not suggesting it will be a favorable season per se, but perhaps not a wall-to-wall death star PV. Doesn't mean it can't end up like that, either....just something to think about-

SAL is expected this time of year....there are a few reasons that we don't usually see long-tracking CV systems in June. The earliest I recall is Bertha in early July of 1996.

Fair question with respect to anything pertaining to seasonal forecasting.

First of all, I'm not necessarily referring to a -NAO/AO season....I wrote "episodes of high latitude blocking". Second, my point is that geomagnetic energy and solar wind peak during the descending phase, not solar max...thus the descending phase is most hostile...more so than max.

If the solar peak ends up delayed, then that also delays the hostile period of geomagnetic particle disbursing solar wind that makes episodes of high latitude blocking so elusive.

Def. the warm season in a New England weather thread...

In the eyes of Tip, the Hadley Cell is responsible for everything...from climate change to sperm subsidnce (joke, John....not doubting CC)

Yep. The ONI is less and less important, anyway as the globe continues to warm.

Doubt that, but we shall see.

Yes, same page. Very fair and reasonable take.

We have certainly been seeing the crap patterns that they were last decade...save for the dry. Their awful winters were also very dry, but our's have just been warm.

Well, the Canadian was showing precip patterns that matched with phase 6 last year. I remember raindance referencing that as supportive for his outlook, so I agree that it will be important to watch that as we get closer. Odds are this run of futility will end when no one expects it to.

Kudos to you on that. I completely misinterpreted what the Pacific warm pool meant and how it would relate to el Nino.

I agree with this. I feel like we should enter a very favorable period around the turn of the decade due to the solar min and potential end of the long term -PDO phase working to trigger some positive regression. But if we are still in this horrid stretch by the early 2030's, then something is probably up.

Who knows, maybe coupling with tremendous Atlantic activity changes things. That mega-El Nino also had something to do with arranging this configuration IMO. Bottom line is I don't expect this configuration to be permanent and its demise will likely be of tropical origin. I know you are heading towards it being permanent.

That has been my theory on how the earth will correct that persistent west PAC warm pool.

2022 and 1998 are on my early list.

Cool. May as well get it out of the way this year when we are screwed, regardless.

That said, clearly I agree a strong PV is favored...just not sure how large of a factor any eruptions will be.

It actually got down to 105MPH upon reneging from PR, but the GS juiced it up prior to US LF.

Not necessarily....not all volcanic eruptions are created equal...depends on where it was, how strong, what was emitted, etc..

I feel like this insanely warm MDR is going to lead to some Hugo type evolutions, whereas they get really intense really fast and far to the east....thus while peak intensity in terms of wind is out over the fish, we end up with some dreadful storm surges from land falling, expansive post EWRC systems. This is why I actually feel like we may not see the barrage on intense landfall in terms of max sustained winds that some may expect, but as we know the surge is the most dangerous aspect. And of course, always in the look out for home-brew systems that can spin up fast at close range...those could threaten with particularly intense landfalls in terms of wind.

I don't think we have had a rock-bottom dreadful La Nina winter on the heels of a hyper active tropical season, so there is that. I think the floor this year is a 1999-1999, 2005-2006 (that one Feb event was a fluke) type of season, but the envelop of potential outcomes is much more densely clustered near the floor than the ceiling, if that makes sense...

IDK about "very good", but odds are it will be somewhat better.