40/70 Benchmark

Methuen JP.

So from what you were saying, a strong MJO 4-6 amplitude in October would be a positive (less negative, anyway) indicator for winter prospects, correct?

Yea, that's one factor, but as we well know nothing operates in a vacuum. We ultimately need to see if the other paraemters are favorable enough to overcome this.

Yea, I know I have been a voice of dissent over the past couple of years, but I'm not sure that will be the case this year. Its early, so you never know....but I don't see much reason to doubt another poor showing. Two caveats: 1) Just due to random probability, we may end up getting "more" to work in our favor this season because I'm not sure its possible to get any less than we already have. 2) If we can keep SE Canada appreciably cold, maybe we can get a favorable PV orientation something akin to 2007-2008 (forget about the record snowfall part) to save New England from another bottom dwelling season.

Its like everything else....intriguing, but we need to collect more data. On the surface, I definitely see enough to warrant a closer look.

As much as I hate the heat, it may not be the worst thing in the world to see more PNW troughing and NE ridging this summer. I have seen some posts about how this maybe part of the semi-permanent pattern we have been stuck in, whereas its PNW troughing during the winter and ridging over the summer. Maybe break that up...willing to try anything, at this point.

I imagine that there will be some very memorable coastals once we enter into a Pacific regime that isn't prohibitive...I think this is the essense of how CC is manifesting. More hostile for winter weather on average, but when it isn't....look out-

A foreign dystopian world where helium fueled Hadley Cells rule the day.

This is the specific portion I was disagreeing with.....the south coast of SNE and the mid atl, sure.

I took it as though you meant for all of coastal SNE.....yea, I agree that without the SE ridge that could have been a general east coast snow storm. ...but my point was that set up could have worked for alot of this area including Boston metro, which as you know is not the interior NE.

These are just based off of ENSO intensity, BTW...so don't read too deeply into this. Just a bare-bones starter of a conversational piece. But some of these seasons could end up having some value.

Some brief opening thoughts on next season.... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/la-nina-looms-for-winter-2024-2025.html

Ride this

I wonder why they haven't update the MEI since April...annoying. If they do that this fall I will lose my shit. lol

I would take 4-6 weeks and run if you offered that to me now.

I will say, I do not think that a very high ACE this season automatically dismisses that relrationship, either....as we well know, none of these correlations are perfect. There still may be something to this, regardless.

Yea, good test.

Giving a cursory glance and the highest ACE seasons due tend to focus around low solar...interesting to see what happens this year. I know raindance said he isn't sold on a hyperactive season.

I swear, if someone said "Well at least snow chances can't fall off of the planet since the world is round", you would promptly dig up some peer reviewed piece claiming that the earth is flat-

Yep, no argument...although I would add that there are also varying degrees there.....seasonal forecasting is an impossible enough endeavor as it is, so you inherently need some level of luck to present a servicable product. But some efforts are definitely better than others.

I agree with this.....the term "luck" is really just a succinct and convenient concession that we can't possibly know every infinitesimal variable and element at play. In this case, it was not as if the parent mid level system was too far north because it wasn't an issue of latitude. Locales at elevation around here had over 30", which would not have happened if the parent system were too far north. What happened was the lingering appendage low over interior CT allowed the lower levels to flood with just enough warm air to prevent a blizzard. No way of knowing that would have happened very far in advance, regardless of whether or not there was a se ridge. CT/RI and the mid atlantic you can blame the pattern....sure, but not from around the MA pike and up.

If there had been a cleaner trasnfer to the coast, then most of SNE would have gotten croacked. ...but there was a provisional appendage low that lingered over interior CT prior to complete trasnfer. I forecast these storms and scrutinize them obsessively and have a very firm grasp of my regional climo. Again, I agree with you that the seasonal pattern was a factor in something like that taking place, but its not entirely due to that. There are some awful seasons when it comes together perfectly and other great seasons when we still just don't get quite a proficient enough of a phase, etc. ...there is certainly some luck involved. I feel like your thought process needs to be a bit more nuanced in this case.

Yes, it did. Sure, the pattern wasn't perfect, but there was a meso low that formed in CT as opposed to a clean transfer. Now, I agree that something like that is more likely to happen due to the pattern at hand, but that precise mesoscale evoution did not have to take place. I am speaking for SNE....that pattern is probably prohibitive for the mid atl, but it is not for SNE....not in early March, anyway.

I do not at all agree. Early March is plenty of time to cash in on snow chances...I mean, it would have been nice to have the pattern set in earlier because that would have afforded a larger window, sure.