40/70 Benchmark

It will be some place no one lives. I don't give a rat's ass about the H5 evolution if it focuses all of the snow over Fort Otter****, ME again.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/well-forecast-month-of-march.html Did pretty well for March.

Well Forecast Month of March Overall Very Mild & Nearly Snowless Month Here is the 500mb forecast composite for the month of March. Versus what has actually transpired. Overall a very solid 500mb forecast with a bit more blocking than expected over Greenland and Alaska than expected. The impact of the higher heights in the vicinity of Alaska (more negative EPO) was to focus the warmest anomalies slightly further to the east than suggested in the forecast composite. Be that as it may, the higher end of forecast departure range of between 2-4F above average over the forecast area verified. While monthly precipitation was expected to be somewhat above average across the region: It verified well above average and ever more anomalous than anticipated likely at least in part due to the positive monthly PNA. While this was significantly more excessive than the forecast composite implied, it was congruent with the primary analog of March 2010.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/major-spring-storm-to-supply.html First Call tomorrow night.

I'm not sold on that.

I would just chill with the HECS stuff....this to me looks like one of those early April 1996 deals.

Check F5...you are on the package. It gives Boston. 8.2"...a lot like the EURO.

Ukie gives me about a foot....matches EURO and GEM pretty well.

GEPS and EPS are great....GEFS are iffy, but good north of about rt 2.

Deepening 985mb on the mean right over the BM.

That was def. the best EPS yet....def. up a step from 12z yesterday.

I think on the hill tops Kuchera could work, but I would def. stay slower to + depth change in the lower terrain.

Looks like a First Call Sunday/Final Call Tuesday given Wednesday onset.

I like seeing the cut back from 12z yesterday in N ME.

EPS tightened up overall and got more intense....better NOP, but a bit less SOP. Yea....we type.

12z EPS is even a little better than yesterday's bonkers mean.

They probably have better retention that the E MA CP because they don't get the marine intrusions or the DSD days....kind of the inverse on how Kev doesn't get upslope like the ORH hills because he is more of a single hill than a chain. That area of VT doesn't get the general downslope on a prevailing westerly flow like the CP does.

Kind of plays in to what you and I were discussing last night with respect to how being in an interior valley can be worse than being on the interior CP....unless it's December and you rip ENE at the surface.

I can't believe that I average more than they do....never would have guessed that. What an armpit.

That looks nice, but show me the EPS.

In all seriousness, I wouldn't have a First call until tomorrow, at the earliest.

Yea, the GEM is more like yesterday's runs.

Ruthless clowns