40/70 Benchmark

I think the La Niña being somewhat biased to the east helped, too.....you won't find an appreciably potent Modoki La Niña with much blocking.

Any sign of a concentric eye wall yet? I would be surprised if Beryl doesn't begin an EWRC prior to direct impact with the Windwards given the size/structure attm......which may not be good news because the more intense/tighter system may very well miss all of the larger islands with the truly dangerous winds. It probably wouldn't have much time to expand, though....myabe just drop the max sustained winds. I feel like beginning an EWRC PRIOR to encountering the more hostile environment in the Caribbean will be key to its ability to reintensify down the road.

This can't be stressed enough.....larger scale features that impact track and intensity trends are more meaningful on those courser global tools.

I think it should go south of them....at least the worst.

That has zero to do with his decision.....he just doesn't like the odds of hitting the core.

Euro is best case for US.

Put together some quick, early thoughts. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/hurricane-beryl-to-devastate-south.html I think the southern half of the GEFS suite is probably out to lunch.....can see a Gilbert type scenario, but probably not further south than that.

Fire up the aresols again.

Your NAO theorem flipped +, correct? We're about halfway home on that...

I thought reducing aerosols should temper global warming? Its among it worse, or is this is a shorter term reaction?

Per ONI, I agree....but that isn't what's important.

Maybe a boring debate season in the lead up to winter because we are all pretty much on the same page.

I really feel as though its going to be squeezed into one big month if we are to a see a decent winter this season.

And if we are to do that again, it would probably be during this predominate cold phase of the Pacific.

I don't really think that it matters, as the hemisphere has been so locked into cool ENSO mode over the course of the last several years.

Yea, I really liked that blog, but am starting to view it with a great deal of skepticism.

I have noticed that. My interpretation of this essentially corrborates my early findings, which is that while a cold ENSO/solar max/west QBO combo may favor a strong PV, it doesn't ensure the most potent one on record.....and we could easily still have one month that featues an abundance of high latitude blocking in the mean. The season as a whole will almost assuredly feature a +NAO and probably even a +AO.

Well, that is certainly a different take...first I have heard of La Nina/Solar Max/West QBO combination being favorable for SSWs. @snowman19Don't shoot the messenger...just posting. Not my thoughts lol https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-data-weak-polar-vortex-usa-winter-2024-2025-fa/

I think you can go ahead and brazenly take the leap of faith to extend that through the winter...gonna go wayyyy out on a limb.

I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two.

Yea, QBO definitely has limited utility...which is a point I was making in that write up if you read between the lines.

Quick ENSO update and some early musings on where we may be headed this winter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/moderate-impact-la-nina-remains-likely.html

Nah, I just like to view it in its entirety because I think its ill advised to only consider one snap shot of band of winds that snakes through the entirety of the tropical Strat.