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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll drop in a little later.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could anyone in here post the UK and CFS forecast for la nina? I have only been able to find the plumes...I'm looking for the SST anomaly maps. Thanks.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see something like that this season. I really like 2000 as an analog, too....prob +3 on my big three list.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, I think most have done poorly the past couple of years. I know raindance and Tom hit last year.....about it. But NOONE forecasted the level of atrocity that unfolded throughout January and February of 2020.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why do people continue to commit intellecutal suicide by reading Henry?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this from what I have been looking at....my finished product should be out in a couple of weeks. How is your NAO formula this season? Positive?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've bee looking at la nina structure a lot this week. Its interesting because your winter forecast composite looks much more like a CP, west-based la nina.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't argue that point, however, do think that the course of lease regret is to consider intensity when parsing potential analogs. I agree with you that there are many other important factors. I do understand why it is less important for you since you focus on sensible weather in your analogs. I think that there is a very good argument to be made for using MEI to sort by intensity, rather than ONI, though.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. Thank you.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't have an issue with the fact that half of your analogue seasons are opposite ENSO state? Of course, that doesn't mean they can't end up similar sensible weather wise..... I would assume that you expect the Aleutian ridge to be flat, then?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand just selecting four random seasons because they are +NAO/AO. Not to say that this winter can not be very mild with a +NAO and flat Aleutian ridge, but that approach just seems lackadaisical and unscientific to me. Then again, I guess the analogs used to to derive the composite do not matter if accurately reflects how you feel the season will play out.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not the only factor, but you mean to say that you see very little commonality between like ENSO states of similar intensity?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I did say that...along with Will. I never laid my thoughts out, though. Big difference between the two winters was the NAO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't disagree with any of this.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, my response if the same with respect to that.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its relatively likely for December....PNA is more dubious, but so far....it looks like the PDO may not be as hostile as originally feared, so...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Count me in....just so you all know, pants will be OFF
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    1996 was marginal...okay, but by what metric was 2001 a moderate la nina? It was weak by all accounts, as far as I'm concerned.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like it will be a moderate la nina to me.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not a problem if you apply them correctly, which I will attempt to do. Not all about blocking, though....you guys need it to couple with a PNA spike, usually. SNE ca get away with one or the other.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its pretty self explanatory......IMHO those are the best matches using a combo of ENSO intensity and distribution of warmest SST anomalies. I mean, we are mainly referencing "anomalies" when speaking of sensible weather, so I don't see why the end result should be much different. I def. would shy away from using very potent la nina as analog seasons, given that ENSO may not be as a pervasive driver due to AGW.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is not my complete composite....just the three best ENSO matches by a combo of structure and intensity.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't do winter outlooks back then...I started in the fall of 2014. You mean my feelings leading up to storms? My outlook wil be out in a few weeks, but will have one more interim update this week. The gradient may not be too dissimilar to that season, though I would hesitate to predict 130" in central NH again.
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