40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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We wait with bated breath...
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I was encouraged to see a more dominate n steam, and a less pronounced s stream.
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I was wondering that myself....haven't researched it. I know one huge difference is antecedent airmass. We had cold in place for that one...here the high is in the atlantic, so its more hostile for the coast.
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Yea, which is why I wouldn't expect a huge snow event near the coast....only way I see it is if we get lucky and if phases very late, just at the right time....likely an ENE special.
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I think the Pacific improvement may be oversold, too....we'll see. Eastern areas should def. rot for a failed phase because that won't end well for winter interests...agreed again.
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Too bad the high escapes into the ocean...it tries to execute a little scooter banana, but not enough for eastern areas on that run.
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That event had dissapointment written all over it...up hill battle. The hill isn't quite as steep this time, but its still a pretty significant incline.
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I wasn't talking about this run...just saying that I prefer a late phase. Anyway, I def. favor some precip type issues. Up and in...again.
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One aspect of the 12z GEFS and EPS that I liked was the N steam waiting to dive in....I'd rather take my chances with a late capture, than a hugger or occlusion...obviously way down the road, but just thinking out loud.
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Yea, right now, but I was referring to the intimation of a PV split. Should that come to pass, it will manifest in a neg NAO.
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We should continue to transition more favorably heading into February ..especially in relation to the NAO. Pacific maybe more fleeting, but we'll see. Glad we are finally seeing guidance reflect that, but I agree that we need to wait for continuity to confirm. I get the skepticism.
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I'd prefer that right now.
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Jan 96, Feb 06..
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I'm not talking about any single determinnistic run.
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Take a look at our top ten events...littered with Miller B. That said, good signal for a significant event.
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The setup favors a hugger.
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We will have dry slot and precip type issues, most likely, but lets get the storm first.
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Yea, not a fan of Miller A...someone in our area will get porked. Take it to the bank.
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Pretty simple concept...it just means that there is increased variability regarding potential track...less of that with a block, hence you don't have to thread the needle.
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I was selling the EURO idea of a big NYC blizzard. Cweat and I were all over that. I remember I had to duck for cover in the NYC thread.
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Yea, you would do better than I would in that case.
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I think the ceiling for us is a moderate event. If it phases big time, then its going to hug the shore, like Boxing day with a more tepid airmass.
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Early thoughts on Super Bowl Sunday. Slightly better look than this weekend, but don't expect blockbuster snows. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/rainy-saturday-night-super-bowl-sunday.html
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Yea, I get it. I do expect gradual improvement throughout February, so I see why people were confused by that. I agree with you on a better EPO than PNA.
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Its a long shot anytime soon, agree.
