40/70 Benchmark

Not happening until maybe just before LF in the Carolinas if just brushes FL.

It's been steady state all day long....fluctuations. The environment is neutral now, and will degrade tomorrow, then become reasonably favorable on approach to Carolinas.

95-100mph at dawn. If that happens, I'll leave my wife and marry James on the cape.

Wrong.

GFS is Bob...key is to not have it bleed east in future guidance.

I'll bet on guidance biasing left at this latitude.

I don't expect much more than some heavy rain on the way OTS up here....an Edouard.

Yea, I could def. see cat 1. But not discounting anything stronger...just low confidence on that. I wouldn't go more than cat 1 attm.

I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status.

Why not Carolinas?

I think Carolinas have best shot. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/tropical-troubles-possible-for-east.html

Its been a great quarter century for the zealots.

The Jan 1978 event is one that nailed Gloucester with OES.

One part of my call that I was happy with was ENSO....I nailed that marginal modoki when most laughed at prospect of el nino...of course, the pattern reload took too long, which sunk the forecast, but that may be connected to the muted atmospheric coupling.

Hope my forecast is better than the last two lol

There is also a recency bias given that the last two vaunted meager warm ENSO events were let downs for the northeast....you need not look back very far to find meek warm ENSO events that were accompanied by mutant snows in the NE.

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect on warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events. I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.

Had some pea sized hail about 945am...then another downpour in the PM....nice to break up the monotony of the season.

Looks like either cool neutral of weak la nina incoming....I wouldn't assume a mild winter yet at this point. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/la-nina-wach-in-effect-for-winter-2020.html

I did that to undermine the media that is catastrophizing it....that is the tangible impact...nice sunsets. Be safe, all.

8.3

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

89 off a low of 59 here today...hottest portion of the state.

Spiked up to 66 for about 15 minutes around 415 for the Hi, otherwise it was low 60's. Low of 46.4.