40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
I'm especially skeptical it maintains that much intensity that far north, and somewhat skeptical it makes it that far west. We''ll see. -
SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/double-trouble-in-gulf-of-mexico-next.html -
08-09 didn't really have NAO blocking...it was more EPO, like 07-08, but it was less hostile in the atlantic than 07-08.
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All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.
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Weak la nina is the second most favorable ENSO state.
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Over such a small area prone to high winds...."who cares" in my book.
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Congrats...
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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
I think it will be quiet for another week or so... -
1938 wasn't purely tropical to my knowledge.....which is why it retained so much fury in conjunction with the insane forward motion.
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Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter. I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.
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Counts more than the frauds like Edouard that skirted east..
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They are all retired.
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Pending disaster in conjunction with covid, which is worst in cane country. I did a piece on this about a month ago....
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Not sure, but not Michael....
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Yea, I was wondering what he meant...
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Yes, that in conjunction with the longitude that has them tucked into the concave of the coastline.
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Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.
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I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.
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Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it. My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.
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I remember. What were the max winds in FL? That was an ill-advised post on my part because I was forecasting the storm to remain east of FL. It was more of a reflection of my bias of underestimating the impact in W SNE.
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You are right; I didn't. I'm telling you what I was thinking, which my landfall forecast corroborates. It was clear to me we weren't getting 2-3" of rain here. But I also didn't think that all mention of rain should be literally removed from the forecast.
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I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas. But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.
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I made that comment as models were relentlessly trending westward. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at. You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.
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Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses. No surprise....
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Thanks. Yea, the rain/flooding threat went by the wayside as it became apparent that the system would track well west of us.
