40/70 Benchmark

Tolland 56 and Methuen 30?

I'm sure Will remembers..

Same

Agree.

My favorite...another H5 mauler..

Crazy winds the AM...didn'r have the mountung poles in and my ambient station blew over haha

Maybe it will be that warm, but no reason to totally bite at day 6..

I trust their ability to diagnose daily departures...I don't blame them for not forecasting 30 degree departures at 6 days lead time...same reason you don't forecast 30" of snow 6 days out. Actual likely closer to climo.

Yea, I'd defer to NWS on daily departures.

I have been hoping for it to whiff....not interested in it and don't want to have to blog about it.

I can't wait until whatever isn't going to happen mid week, doesn't happen, so we can enjoy a nice weekend and focus on the improving look for the second half. January is a "fast forward" month this year...has looked that way since fall.

I forecasted slightly above normal snowfall with a midseason punt...its not as uncommon as you think...we did it two years ago, too. TBH, if you are going to punt a third of the season and still do well snowfallwise, the middle portion is the segment to punt bc we have the most margin for error climowise with regard to snowfall at that point. In other words, mid winter is when we are most likely to BS our way to some snow despite an awful pattern...which is the key to good seasons. We never go wall-to-wall synoptic nirvana. As far as the "one event" caveat goes.. go back throughout history and subtract the largest event from all of the seasonal tallies...it would significantly alter the overall tenor of most seasons....such is the peril of avaeraging 60" and not 160"-

Bank on it....things are going to get started in the polar domain.

Good point...he may just mean sensible appeal?

Bill, how do you feel about the guidance for January so far...."uh....snort-snot rocket projectile....we're on to February"....

I could buy that look for February.

Agree.

Looks gradient like, to me...certainly not too warm in NE. Maybe mid atl.. I'd expect overrunning and SWFE there, rather than big coastals.

You guys are totally reasonable. Could still be a few inches, though I doubt it..

I honestly wasn't engaged enough to share your perspective because I expect so little from this period, regardless. With the baby on deck, I, check out at least excuse imaginable and this period gave me more than I needed.

'81-'82 flies under the radar, but it was very good....nice holiday season, too.

When...eh, you're just fu#$ed.

I could see a few inches...just having fun...but obviously I wouldn't be expecting that attm.

Next week imo..