40/70 Benchmark

I think a good bit of these will work out this month, but that's just a hedge....no way to truly tell without blocking.

Yea, minimal investement until 72-96 hours out is advisable.

Exactly why I do it....also refreshes my understanding from the ground up each fall. I will just link it, though, and review myself before writing each fall. I get the frustration of having to refer back to p63, paragraph two as if we are the supreme court interpreting the law. I do all of this work, and no one remembers the forecast.

Yea, KU events are more favored during el nino, but obviously they happen during all phases of ENSO. I actually think my presentation needs alot of work, as some have pointed out....my key points get lost in the verbose explanations of general concepts. I will address that next year by leaving that out and referencing it via hyperlinks.

I don't feel like we are going to get something of that caliber...that was a juiced STJ. But I think we can pull another big coastal snow event in a few weeks.

They can be predicted to a degree..its the forecaster's job to diagnose which seasons will have the propensity to produce anomalously large events. Are there some seasons that are more predictable than others? Sure.. We had a huge mid atl blizzard during that record 2015-2016 el Nino that caused everyone to abandon the idea of much sensible winter appeal at all. I called for it just about as explicitly as possible and it occured during the two week stretch that I had identified...it was an oasis of winter in a sea of warmth.

I've done relatively well forecasting snowfall. There is an element of luck to anything...you can't live your life on a spreadsheet. While snowfall definitely has more variance than H5 patterns and the resultsant temperature departures...at the end of the day, its my passion for winter that drives these efforts. Snow is at the heart of many weather enthusiasts' passion. This is why I don't vomit out a composite map with some attendant temp departures and walk. Predicting snowfall is the fun part and keeps me engaged. While no one will nail snowfall every season, good forecasters will predict snowfall more accurately than the ones that blow. Take that to the bank. I don't get the idea that predicting snowfall is not a worthwhile endeavor. Its akin to a slugger not bothering to swing the bat because of some ludicrous aversion to the BABIP gods. No..they take batting practice. Forecasting snowfall is hard and will often humble even the highest quality and most exhaustive of efforts. Here is an idea.....research more and get better-

Well, I forecasted trivial....upwards of an inch for cape and se MA with an upwards of 2" bullseye interior se MA near Taunton.

My First Call may work out....hedged towards a bump west.

30-40" more.

1994 overrunning

Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it.

2018 also had a major SSW in February, which was the primary impetus for that grande finale...

Totally agree.

Warm cars when the sun is out with no need for heat.

@Typhoon Tip Winter 2017-2018 was pretty good, but other than that, regression...yea.

Yea, my effort wasn't perfect, but its been one of the best IMHO. We'll see how it goes from here....

I think that event is where the mid Atlantic may receive the bulk of their seasonal alottment.

My second window for major winter storm potential is 2/17 to 3/2, which I had envisioned as a potential phase change event into a more favorable NAO regime back in November. I think that still has a shot.

Most likely...

It will probably work out better than last year.

I enjoy snow and pleasant weather....with bare ground? Keep the cold and cracked earth.

If it isn't going to snow, why not?

I never ammend anticipated seasonal totals...they are what they are. However I am not concerned, at this point.

I'm pretty objective...last year I was awful.