40/70 Benchmark

I think its noise at thia point-

Man, I forgot what it was like to have a great hurricane season....I have hardly even looked at the winter yet. I'm used to being balls deep in theories by now....late start. September has flown by for once-

My colleague's 80 yo mother lives in San Juan metro...east side. She was blessed because she if fine, and her house was not damaged.

I think it will be like Jose. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/puerto-rico-devastated-maria-poised-to.html Sorry for the kindergarten graphics, but I'm a primitive hobbyist.

Agree....I don't think its a major threat.

However there are many more ways for this to miss the US, than hit it.

Maximum sustained winds weakened. Only fact I stated. I believe that is what the Saffir/Simpson Scale is based on. Obviously there are other factors at play when speaking of structural changes.

Bingo.

It had weakened, but the weakening was done, as the ERC had completed...essentially, PR caught Marua at the best possible time relative to its internal structural cycle, as I had anticipated yesterday.

Agree. I think it was a little weaker..

How do you feel about the 155mph LF intensity?

It intensified more than I had thought....so the difference is because of the 175 mph initial intensity....I was expecting like 155-160mph peak.

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from 10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening, and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range. Looks like my call wasn't totally off-base after all,...just somewhat aggressive with the weakening.

Figured-

Fair enough. I guess I was speaking in relative terms.

Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point.

What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?

Latest Sat. reminds me of peak Irma.

At least that much...Irma essentially scraped PR to the N.

Well, I was wrong- Period. I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it. I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future. Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful. Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small. Never stop learning in this hobby.

Contrarian? No way....Dominica was decimated, and PR is going to be severely impacted. My only question is whether or not its going to be catastrophic or extreme in PR.

Saving grace is that the eye is so tiny that the catastrophic swath will be relatively small...

No one should be doing that. Preparations for a catastrophic blow should be complete. I think that an ERC, if it has time, will take a toll on Maira because its so small.

I agree that it hasn't started. The question is how far off is it.....PR needs to pray it isn't far.

Could very well hit at cat 5....we shall see.