user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sref are wetter than 21z...1" line into Nassau - The slp is little stronger and a tick west but the spread is heavy to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 A little more digging through 24 on the nam. Southern stream is slightly more energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still digging hard through 36...this should come in west again lol - Northern stream a little less energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still digging hard through 36...this should come in west again lol Yes this could be a big QPF run for my area down in BWI up to NYC. The orientation at h5 and the backside dig makes it pretty obvious. Thought 0z was a bit east in the first place, at least with the shield of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty big difference with the southern stream @ 45 (more energetic and a tad slower) - Starting to go negative @ 48 ( a little quicker than 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's more amplified. Heights are really pumping out ahead of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Light snow at our door @51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 SLP is coming in west of 0z mod precip @ 54 CCB ownage @ 57 & 60 850s and surface is through Nassau...epic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00Z RGEM ensembles Hour 60 Hour 66 Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still mod snow @ 69....this run might be better than 18z, colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is still not anywhere near the 00z ECM and I think this is because this is still in the long range part of the NAM. Nam basically becomes more useful at 48 and under or for certain 24 and under.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 @ 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its splitting the low into two centers and no other model is doing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hello Longtime Lurker but have learned a lot on these boards over the years. Figured while it was quiet and not a high traffic time was a good time to post. Anyway, is there any reason why the Nam is taking so long for the whole run to finish ? With that said looks like the models are starting to hone in on track which the metro area looks to be in the crosshairs. Looks like the QPF is starting to nudge up as well. I wonder if in the next 24-36 hours when Hi Res models come into play if we are gonna get some ridiculous QPF and snow totals ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does this latest nam run change western li over to rain or are we mostly snow? I see someone says 850's go above and cut thru Nassau not sure if most precip has fallen by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS digging more though 45 but a little weaker with the souther stream. Going negative a little faster now @ 48 Starts to close off @ 54, mod precip moving in (SLP is a bit more west than 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does this latest nam run change western li over to rain or are we mostly snow? I see someone says 850's go above and cut thru Nassau not sure if most precip has fallen by then? Through hour 60 on the 4k NAM is looks to stay all snow west of Islip or in that general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks like it keeps nyc all snow...precp was much more consolidated this run...SLP is 8mb stonger it moves toward MA. It also redevelops the back edge over LI again - snow is ending @ 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The nam is colder than the gfs/euro. I believe that the nam maybe underdoing the warming. IMO Long Island I think will changeover to a mix sometime Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is it just me or have the models trended towards a quicker moving system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The nam is colder than the gfs/euro. I believe that the nam maybe underdoing the warming. IMO Long Island I think will changeover to a mix sometime Thursday afternoon. But it may be a case where the damage will already have been done , and after there`s a change I think everyone goes back over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is it just me or have the models trended towards a quicker moving system? Tends to be the case in absence of blocking, models as you approach the short range tend to catch onto faster speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What is the duration looking like ? It was 18-24 hours I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 06Z RGEM at 54h looks beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 06Z RGEM at 54h looks beastly. On precip types though it was damn close to going over to rain at 54 hours, wouldn't put too much into it as the RGEM isn't spectacular beyond 36 hours but it's another model showing a close call at the coast right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What is the duration looking like ? It was 18-24 hours I believe. You're not getting that kind of duration without any blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On precip types though it was damn close to going over to rain at 54 hours, wouldn't put too much into it as the RGEM isn't spectacular beyond 36 hours but it's another model showing a close call at the coast right now All the models agree , this is inside OBX and the to the mouth of the Delaware . our forecast will depend on is at AC or 75 miles East . Will know by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On precip types though it was damn close to going over to rain at 54 hours, wouldn't put too much into it as the RGEM isn't spectacular beyond 36 hours but it's another model showing a close call at the coast right now We inland folk are rooting for all the non-US models, obviously. If the coast needs to flip to rain to ensure I get 12+, well that's a sacrifice I guess I'm willing to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On precip types though it was damn close to going over to rain at 54 hours, wouldn't put too much into it as the RGEM isn't spectacular beyond 36 hours but it's another model showing a close call at the coast right now Yeah, the 06z run was way more amplified at every level compared to the 00z run. It still would be a ton of snow to start...but a thump over to rain or drizzle most certainly given that look aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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