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  2. I have heard that this area around New Boston TX, along I-30, to near the Texarkana area had a tornado emergency! There has not been a tornado report on the SPC database.
  3. Highs: EWR: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 86 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 84
  4. I think it’s been pretty widely recognized that the bear population has increased significantly over the last several years here in VT. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2023-10-13/vermonts-black-bear-population-is-the-highest-its-been-in-5-years#
  5. Today
  6. Beautiful night I'm currently wearing my tank top
  7. Seems like the GFS wants to break out convection during the morning which kills lapse rates and heating later in the day. The NAM is dry in the morning, and noted by @yoda, the environment at peak heating looks quite good, with nice backing of the low-level winds too. GFS does seem to be a bit of an outlier. My guess is that unless the 00Z ECMWF looks like the GFS, we'll have a Day 3 SLGT when we wake up Saturday morning.
  8. What a shift in 24 hours. Last night, models struggled to convect anything in OK/TX Saturday night. Now there is a very aggressive middle signal across the board. It’s odd seeing the HRRR be the most aggressive, but this is not a typical parameter space. One key difference between tomorrow and May 6th (last high risk) is that we can expect a more westerly component to the deep shear vector. Even if there is convection up and down the dryline, the wind profile alone will strongly favor a supercell storm mode.
  9. No one will convince me otherwise but their population has to be increasing, rapidly in areas. Even a half dozen more cubs spread out in an area will increase the sightings and it can only take an extra litter of so for a local to double bear encounters. They have zero predators. They also aren’t predators. So they just exist and thrive. Humans aren’t concerned because they are docile animals who just amble about looking for easy food sources; they aren’t hunters. Live and let live type animals. I went almost 10 years without having a bear encounter in Vermont. Now I have at least a half a dozen encounters with them per warm season between the mountain and town. Something has changed in the past 5-6 years despite my same life patterns.
  10. tale of two seasons with freeze warnings in ND and excessive heat warnings for heat index values up to 118 in southern texas.
  11. If the system on Sunday is far enough east I might chase. The problem is storms often don't get into Indiana until after dark. East central Illinois is easier to get to than northwest Illinois because I can go south around Chicago.
  12. I drove through the mess it left behind on southbound 270. The leaf splatter had covered the road and the left lane was closed at bottom of downgrade , looked like a washout
  13. The 00z NAM 24-27 hour significant tornado parameter jumps way up in western-southern Oklahoma with the low-level jet. The higher STP values really shouldn't be confined to southern Oklahoma there. The 00z HRRR finally decides to put out dozens of storms in the warm sector! (Helping to confirm that the SPC is generally right). Other CAMs tonight keep a lot of the capping with not too many storms. I still don't believe those too much. I think the SPC will be right, with big hatched areas for tornadoes, wind, and hail (see the SPC's moderate risk discussion) this is the 18z NAM (12km) for west of Oklahoma City tomorrow
  14. This thread is dead for such a potential significant day tomorrow
  15. Around the 5th Anniversary of the Memorial Day tornadoes
  16. TWC's calling for a high of 72 for Memorial Day. Want a bad Memorial Day? Go back to Memorial Day 1996 when temps were in the 50's all day.
  17. Some pretty nasty looking soundings on the 00z NAM at 21z Monday and 00z Tuesday across the region
  18. People have been posting one of a bear in Woodstock last few days, they love the birdfeeders.
  19. IDK about "very good", but odds are it will be somewhat better.
  20. Awesome flower moon rising over Long Island sound tonight. Night mode shot on my S22.
  21. 88 out here today. Incredible day on the sound on the boat. Water was flat with light winds. Clean bottom for the boat up to 40 mph.
  22. The SPC Almost issued a day 2 High Risk. This looks serious. @Quincy Wichita appears to be in the bullseye tonight riskwise at least. They are in 15% hatched tornado, 45% hatched wind & 30% hatched hail--the max SPC has assigned--even if Wichita isn't in the middle of the MOD Risk. Overnight/early am we'll probably see a High Risk somewhere in the MOD.
  23. Currently 54 and very breezy this evening. Looks like some patchy frost possible up north if the winds calm down. We’ve been sustained over 20mph and gusting over 40mph all afternoon. Cool weather on tap for the holiday weekend, in 2018 Memorial Day was the earliest 100 on record in the Twin Cities. This year we’ll probably stay in the 60s all day.
  24. 00z HRRR supports the strong wording in the day 2 update this afternoon.
  25. There is another board, found Andy on it.
  26. camera went out.. but just before that you could see the rotation in the clouds then wind went wild..
  27. 2.46" with round 1 this late afternoon. Fairly lock-step with the radar estimates out of KIND. Will round 2 make it here or will it get trashed with the loss of daytime heating? For those Michiganders that like the thunder and lightning, round 1 had some doozies here. Rattled the house quite a number of time and heard one snap before the boom, so one was even extremely close.
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