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We have relatives coming in from south FL tomorrow. They are gonna feel like they've landed in Scotland LOL Can't believe tomorrow, MAY 18, will be the fourth straight Saturday of rain and highs in the 50s

https://x.com/mryannagy/status/1791577134571372567?s=46&t=nIoI0c7NSX6uBBZqtNsThg . Near Pittsburgh.

Flash Flood Warning for Allegheny County Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA 5:17 PM EDT Fri, May 17, 2024 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Bethel Park, Monroeville, McKeesport, Plum, West Mifflin, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Upper St. Clair, Scott Township, Wilkinsburg, Whitehall, South Park Township, Robinson Township, Munhall, Jefferson Hills, North Versailles and Brentwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. && FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

Everyone

Pittsburgh 3 confirmed tornadoes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

A partly to mostly cloudy weekend lies ahead. Sunshine will likely increase on Sunday. A few scattered showers are still possible during the weekend. Temperatures should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow and lower to middle 70s across the region on Sunday. No significant early-season heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of May. However, it will likely turn warmer next week as sunshine returns. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.73°C. Neutral conditions are now developing. The SOI was -1.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.023 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Low to mid 70s after that. .

And the summer before

Everyone is praying the gfs is right with a full coc MDW.

Tornado Warning for Allegheny County Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA 4:40 PM EDT Fri, May 17, 2024 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 440 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Aspinwall, or near Penn Hills, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Penn Hills, Plum, O'hara Township, Oakmont, Fox Chapel, Aspinwall, Verona, and Blawnox around 445 PM EDT. Springdale around 450 PM EDT. New Kensington and Lower Burrell around 500 PM EDT. Arnold around 505 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cheswick. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED; MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

When the Watch was issued this morning, I flashed it in my newsletter with an advisory that the blend had diminished overnight from 1.02" down to .86" thru 00z 11-20. Who is correct at this hour, the models or the mets. at Sterling???? No contest.......... But 2 am has not arrived.............

A few days checking out the buffet, then a week or so of casual dining (the current situation here) followed by a week plus of diving in teeth first - no wandering around looking for a soft spot, just eat and run. Sugar maple leaves about 3/4 grown, red oak halfway, ash and basswood lagging behind as always.

Using central park as your argument... lmaooo

Some of the guidance has backed off a bit, but the latest obs show that rapid cooling is occurring in regions 1.2 and 3 already. The early development of this Niña could potentially indicate that the more aggressive guidance has the right idea. Weaker events don’t usually start developing until later.

There's nothing globally that's happening that is different from the decadal trend, so I like the forecast. In 2020, I started realizing that we were "evening out" one year to another (Feb 2020 would be +pna so Feb 2021 would be -pna, etc.), and I do think we are "due" for hotter weather in the Spring/Summer, partially because of how much cooler it has been relative to the trend in recent years. if not this year, then future years.. March 2012 was super warm, then Summer 2012 broke the record for arctic ice melt, so maybe as that starts heavily progressing again we will go warmer?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/houston-recovery-mode-storm-kills-131840576.html

I fear the east wind next week… I hope it’s not more of the same with a 80 degree day sprinkled in

Yep sure looks like a similar warming trajectory from the UHI PHL Airport vs all of those Chester County NWS COOP and MADIS sites just since 1980....which of course only includes our current warming cycle of climate change

This was already addressed the east and west is not as critical as the elevation above sea level which we have already detailed in the above post with those splits. There are of course today...consistent with the older data more stations at the relatively lower elevations. Not at the higher elevations. We will of course be analyzing data that reviews the data individually at both the relative higher and lower elevation locales to account for any variables due to these elevations.

i prefer 55 and mist....

LOL!! "quality sites" meaning those that disagree with your NWS Climate sites including both PHL and ILG Heat Island impacted stations and of course add in those after the fact chilling adjustments to the past and warming tweaks to the current data. Quite the different look from the above for Chester County if we don't make warming adjustments to the actual current data. Regarding the sites in more detail yes there was as a % more lower elevation sites in the past....which likely skewed those results too warm...even though they were in fact the warmest decades. The good news is we now have a good balance and mix that as long as we keep breaking it out by elevation will clearly show the non-adjusted factual real world warming or cooling depending on the current climate change cycle.

Today's contribution! Things are getting a late start this year due to the crap weather. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

DC proper is the new Short Pump?

JB is already building hype for next winter. I'm predicting Sistene chapels and massive hymns from dec-mar.

It's about as lush and green as Scotland out there. Been the perfect amount of regular rains this spring.