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Yeah but these numbers are also skewed by the week of 90+°

41F this morning.

38.2 degrees at 6 am. Frost developed overnight in portions of western Augusta and Highland with lows around 32!!

Are we ever going to kick this onshore flow regime? Seems like it's perpetually a week away. Kinda like in winter, where the "favorable pattern" is always close but keeps getting pushed LoL.

If the Facebook post I saw this morning from Mount Holly is right, it'll soon be 15 out of 20.

I cut my grass Wednesday and now I think today is the only day I will be able to cut my grass in the next couple days Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Pretty damning number to back up the thought that it seemingly rains every Saturday. At least this week it waited until late afternoon/early evening. Low of 39 here this AM. Up to 43 now. See some mid 30's in the mountain range to my west.

It has now rained 14 out of the last 19 Saturdays Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It was amazing Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

looks warm and wet blessed

Or else, 2024-25 would end up as Neutral instead of a Niña.

I'd expect a large rubber band effect in June with much warmer temperatures.

Had some brief but freaky lightning, 2-3 hours ahead of my hourlies forecast. I'm sitting at 11C dew at 6C. Quick flashes and has that scary feel as its seems to be with lower temps in these parts. Oddly my weather station didn't detect a single one despite the 16 of them. Lots of small cells forming over lake Huron, most weakened rapidly.

note: 5% tornado outlook

Bring on the dews baby..my skin could use a little natural moisture from Mother Nature

Today turned out to be what seems to be the sunniest day for the month.

I'm up on Skyline Drive and all we saw was a faint bit of purple in photos. We are back at our hotel now warming up and may go back out if it ramps up again.

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible.

18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA pattern starting around May 17th. Hard to say that it will sustain, but sometimes when it starts and we are cooler on the EC, the later part of the -PNA pattern is above average to way above average.. something to look for if it sustains into June. I've done some research linking ENSO subsurface with the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time, but in the age of weather derivatives it's harder to say if that is the reason for the correlation (my opinion).

This weekend down here was very nice thanks to dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

Nice job Ray.. I don't agree that the PNA was +0.55 for the Winter.. there was an Aleutian High most of the time, and +EPO/+WPO. I think their measurement runs into the EPO domain, counting Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I see it as a -PNA Winter, especially since the North America part included a SE ridge and NW trough. The one time the EC got cold in January was because of -NAO.

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

1.30" total

Hp30 index climbed to 7.333 briefly but has come back down. Saw pics of auroras over Lake Ontario but probably not going to get to us barring a bigger hit waiting in the wings tonight. And of course the clouds are excruciatingly stubborn on top of this.

The PDO is still up in the air, but it will likely be negative as is typical for moderate to strong Nina’s. These are valid points, and I agree that it looks ugly right now. Some of the latest guidance is trending more towards a moderate peak than strong one, but regardless the solar activity is a strong negative factor for east coast snow prospects. I am much more concerned about that than the raw strength. In the extremely snowy strong La Niña event in 2010-2011, the solar activity was very low, opposite of this year. Id keep an eye on the PDO, it is negative but not as strongly negative as it was earlier in the year despite the Nino falling apart. That’s one thing to look for as a possible wildcard that could work in favor of those rooting for snow on the east coast. Ultimately, right now things are pointing in the direction of a +NAO moderate-strong Niña which is bad news for weenies such as myself.