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Does anyone know of anywhere that has MJO RMM plots before 1975? The Australia BOM archived site only goes back to 1975.

Just imagine if we could get the vort for Monday to go negatively tilted. Canadian tries to amp it up late, which is why the clown maps are better down east but a very close call to a big dog almost forum wide.

Starting to get some breaks in the clouds after a cold overcast morning. 36°.

Big Improvement on the Canadian for Monday

Sounds like @Damage In Tolland may have stopped over with his seriously abused weed whacker.

This imagery will take days, maybe weeks to exit my psyche... right up to the scheduled Grinch Storm Christmas week.

12z UK is a narrow hit for northern NC and southern VA for Friday. Nothing for Monday.

If that were to occur verbatim that would be a heavy wet dumping.

There are so many variables and permutations...they all matter to some degree. I was not even really focusing on that feature, which does NOT mean it's not important, just means it wasn't where my attention was...the Mexican energy mostly washes out and the wave that ends up in the TN valley is from the energy that comes into the PAC NW and ejects from the Rockies around 100 hours. IMO the wave is healthy enough, the biggest problem is the timing and strength of that NS wave in front of it and the orientation of the NS. If we can just get one change...that is the one I would look for. But there are a ton of variables...we could root for a ton of other little factors that could lead to a better result...better phasing between that Mexican energy and the PAC wave leading to an even stronger TN valley system...changes in the timing of that system, if it were to slow down by 12-24 hours...but then does that introduce temp issues...UGH see it gets complicated and I am trying to keep it simple lol

Clipper through Stowe then a warmup on the GFS OP. Let's trend that south a bit. CMC looks different but it's all a crapshoot

Was just glancing around looking at cameras and saw Snowshoe was perfectly clear?? I'm socked in the clouds and 32.0/26.6 at 11:30 am. The satellite has ALMOST a perfect outline of my county lol!

Reggie looks interesting with the norlun right up through here. You can see the col at H92 moving eastward south of LI and the inv trof moving W to E through the region. Of course that’s lalaland for these things.

Bone chilling cold and sh*t brown grass this week. I always love that combination, but it's definitely better with strong wind gusts added in for good measure.

Facts. That was like getting knee capped in church.

That is good. Ground will freeze less and more slowly?

UK also says no thanks....it would've been nice to get any model on board with the Euro.

Solid 6" here in Gardner. I don't see much meltoff coming either as the next cold front rolls in.

It's been a time to forget since we beat Houston.

Something I've been trying to watch with this storm is the initial energy phasing between the NS and the low off Mexico and how that impacts the ability for downstream cyclogenesis. Though being honest that analysis starts to stretch the limit of my understanding. Generally I've assumed we want the low off Mexico to be further North and East (and more energetic) in order to feed energy and get fully captured by the NS shortwave though I'd like to know your read on it as I could also see a possibility where that Mexican low destructively interferes by not getting cleanly absorbed eastward.

Dammit now we have to hear about how its never gonna snow again until it snows again....

Those are the means and medians for the subset of dates shown, not 1991-2020 or the period of record.

When you consider when I published, it absolutely was. The precip type was modeled as excessively white for my area on Sunday night. As far as underperforming in the snow area, if you mean relative to clown maps...sure. But I would argue that was better modeled than the warm layer given that snow growth was consistently modeled as inferior..that is always red flag against heavier totals.

I planted a bunch of young pawpaw trees this fall. I’d love to keep pack now through March for the extra insulation. 29° right now but 36° and 37° on the 4” and 8” soil sensors.

The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters.