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Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas. Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that? I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.

The CAD'y wagon will be around some this winter. Mid Dec, and especially a good part of Jan, and maybe a little in early n late Feb. That's how it's lookin to me.

I love the forecast for south central Texas: Wetter than normal and stormy! Bring on that Pacific firehose of rain! I am actually thinking of changing my name here to Floodman! Here's to hoping for truly EPIC Brobdingnagian amounts of rain this autumn, winter on well into spring 2027!

And it is jogging S. That pretty good influence for island mountains that are only 1000-1700 ft!

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.

I often say "golf ball sized" raindrops!

I think Boston itself has had at least two thunderstorms this summer with nary a peep here. So even the CITY is doing better than most south of town

Yes, it is an odd duck. I would have thought it would have become annular now w/ a giant eye, but it keeps reforming a small inner core. The storm's gale radii did expand over time at least, so that part of the fcst worked out well.

Local STEIN SHIELD, like the local WEYMOUTH SHIELD! I know it is more long-term, but is it? PVD is only -0.67" Y-T-D. CON -0.55 Y-T-D and ORH +1.24. Yes, BOS is a "hole" but that is quite local and it we know it is low by about 2" due to bad LEQ from the big S+ events this winter. | At what point does long-term drought "go away" as a weight for considering drought? It is not defined anywhere I can find. A *lot* of decisions about land and water management are made from the drought monitor, so it needs to reflect actual conditions accurately! Back in the day, the Crop Moisture and Palmer Drought Severity Index were used and IMHO, these are better. They parse things out instead of one lumped categorical map. See attachments for current conditions. I don't see any drought/dry issues in New England!

Got fringed with that batch of storms this evening moving South to North through Durham. Picked up .07" with that. Otherwise yeah another awful humid day. Next week looks like July again with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ugh

it's been relatively dry here for a long time lol Tonight great example, Stein shield absolutely entrenched

Storms up here tonight. 0.42" so far. Playing back the radar loop, it almost looks like the small cell that developed over Warren County around 9 pm essentially absorbed the larger cell off to the west and then moved up through most of Sussex County. It was nothing severe here, but an interesting scenario. I work the NJ state fair this week, and today's shift was gross with all of the humidity. I'm in one of the exhibits most of the time with shade, but still. Stepping outside for more than a few minutes with the sun beating down makes the real feel almost unbearable for more than a few minutes. The rain, followed by a cool shower, felt good.

If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!

This is why I do not always trust the U.S. Drought Monitor. And yes, I know there is more than just rainfall that goes into it, and there are 4 types of drought, but really? Look at the MA drought map 6/30 compared to 8/4 (attached). Then look at the 6/30 to 8/4 rainfall for the FMH area and BOS area (also attached). So we have locations in the FMH area that got more than double the rainfall compared to the BOS area, and the BOS area goes from svr drought to abnormally dry, and the FMH area is still in svr drought? Sorry, that's too big of a disparity to be correct from a practical and sensible impact POV! And the type of rain that fell in this period -- two summer nor'easters and the rainfall was spread out during those events, not falling in short tstm bursts, which makes difference for runoff and soil percolation. And some locations near/along the S coast had their wettest July on record! This kind of disparity is nothing new concerning drought labeling and status. WA state recently, similar issue. All indicators were AOA normal in May, except for snowpack, and they declared a drought emergency. And really, given the drought monitor for the state at this time w/ less than half in mdt drought (see like below) - how is this an "emergency?" "Emergency" should be reserved for only the most dire and critical situations. But throwing around absolute superlatives is the norm now -- no scaling or proper perspective. IMHO, declaring "emergency" is often tool for graft, b/c it frees up $$ that would otherwise not be available. Details on WA drought "emergency." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/why-washington-drought-emergency-should.html http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20260505/20260505_WA_date.png

His username checks out?

That was some of the heaviest rain I've experienced. Looked even heavier to the NE over Lunenburg. RT 2 Training

how dare you! thanks lol

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.