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Yeah, nice little mesoscale system .

the low clouds marine layer once those storms over western PA encounter it they will not make it this far east

Could be interesting if this blob coming down survives the mountains. Couple tornado warned cells in there.

Meanwhile 90s from Philly SW and heat index over 100. Rather this than swamp filth.

Could be an interesting lunchtime should this blob of whatever coming of Lake Eire survives the mountains. Couple of tornado warned cells mixed in it.

Where is this drizzle coming from..sigh

@Stormchaserchuck1

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/ Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational.

Tropical Storm Edouard has been spinning around in SE Texas since yesterday afternoon. Some radar rainfall estimate pixels approaching 16-18" now. The center has been drifting NNE for the past several hours. If it continues to head more north/east than the models were showing, I may end up getting some rain later today in Longview. Tyler has a better chance though. NWS SHV has mentioned the possibility of tornadoes but it's a pretty low chance, especially since we haven't really seen any signs of that yet.

A nocturnal training event would be great!

As mentioned in a previous post, we still need to watch that developing buzzsaw (Lowell) for a northward turn in a few days. Some of the globals have been flirting with Kauai every other operational run. It may ultimately miss to the west, but that may not be nailed down yet until we see how trough interaction evolves.

Looks like rain chances increase as the weekend approaches with cold front dropping down. I see GSP has dropped the possiblity for Heat Advisories outside the Mountains the rest of the work week. My high yesterday was 81.

Been a mostly fun year, minus the absolute heartbreaks in the 8th-9th innings. Is there a world where the keep Abrams, Wood, and even Lyle at this point long term? Minors have some decent pitching options in the next few years and Cavalli has proven to be a bonified 1/1A at the head of the rotation. Would be tough as a fan to continue to keep watching good young talent just keep walking out the door.

ready 2 mild

LWX AFD from this morning does also state severe storms are possible well into the night KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily severe weather threat through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some likely severe with damaging winds, are likely today through Friday as upper level disturbances move from the Great Lks into the Mid Atlantic states. Already seen a small cluster of thunderstorms over south central Pennsylvania that will move through the area later this morning. Two additional rounds of thunderstorms seem likely today, one this afternoon, and a second one late this evening into the overnight hours tonight into Thursday. Thunderstorms will ride southeast along and north of a backdoor front currently pushing south through northern VA and southern MD as seen on TDWRs and wind shifts to the NE at IAD and DCA a couple of hours ago. The severe threat will not be necessarily tied to the afternoon and evening hours as record warm nighttime temperatures and high humidity yield strong instability and keep thunderstorms going strong well into the overnight hours. By Friday, cold front should have cleared much of the forecast area causing a stabilizing effect limiting the risk of severe weather, but showers and thunderstorms will still be possible north of the sfc front.

1300z SPC OTLK disco says the morning convection is causing question marks for later Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains today into night. ...Northeast States... A complex but potentially active convective day is in store for parts of the northeast US today. A fast-moving MCS and associated mid-level shortwave trough is over Lake Michigan. This system is forecast to track rapidly eastward across Lower MI and southwest ON this morning before emerging into western NY/PA this afternoon. A consensus of overnight CAM solutions indicate this will be the focus for strong-severe thunderstorms that track east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ample low-level moisture is present in this corridor. This along with daytime heating well into the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates will favor damaging wind gust potential in the strongest storms. A north-south surface boundary is expected to lie from central NY into east-central PA this afternoon, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced to pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for a more widespread severe event today is the presence of considerable morning convection currently over northwest PA and western NY. These storms are well-ahead of the main forcing feature, and decrease confidence in significant destabilization over the primary risk area this afternoon. These early storms may pose a damaging wind and hail risk through the day, especially after a few hours of heating.

@CAPEthis humidity is different lol

The HRDPS reflectively did pretty good on the 06z and 12Z runs yesterday with storms over central PA yesterday extending SE, and the most current SPC storm reports (from yesterday). Today's HRDPS 6z seems to do ok thus far, but the southern storm complex (modelled) is a little farther north. Still doing better than most of the other short-term modeling. Thought I would chime in, since I have family in NY, friends in PA, and was watching the evolution yesterday and providing some short-term forecasts. Like all the discussions.

Edouard's structure remains quite impressive this late AM. It doesn't appear these deep convective bands are going to let up anytime soon. It's no surprise that the rain totals are beginning to lead to flash flood emergencies.

There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

Grok based on the ECMWF seasonal

It’s amazing, everyone getting fun and damaging weather except New England. Another big SVR day from NYC to DE last evening. Unreal.

Why can’t we get that?