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WB 6Z EURO (rain limits accumulations)

The best snow cover extent relative to the means so far this winter was back in late November and early December prior to the big warm up for much of the CONUS outside the Northeast and Great Lakes.

Yep. It’s going to be hard to get a siggy event I think.

GFS too

I think the one thing that concerns me the most is that all the good moisture that this thing needs to wrap in is way offshore. That’s why the euro is fairly meager with precip. It’s straining to get anything into the conveyor belts and dump precip. That I don’t like.

WB 6Z GEFS is a little better....

Duster days are here again

0.6 on the board. combo of sleet snow and rain.

I'm bumping this because the Euro did pretty damn well with the H5 look at this range. Yes I was told the surface was barely cool but this is really a good indicator from the Euro at nearly 10 days out and beyond. Surface was too warm at this range but that's been the problem for a lot of the season with these cold fronts. Now starting today we are well below normal and possibly looking at multiple snow threats. Some people talk shit and some people know their shit...

I feel bad for the mid Atlantic ski resorts. It's becoming one of those years. I guess i better go ahead and head to the Adirondacks in a couple weeks. No winter in sight here.

I’m going to wait until Tuesday/Wednesday to make up my mind. I love snow in my backyard but if McDowell is fringe at best… I might just book a cabin in Banner Elk and have some fun.

I agree "it doesn't want to snow here". It's one of those years. We had a nice snow pack by Eagles Mere PA but now with the warmth and rain. It's pretty much all gone. They have some snow showers and mix precipitation in the forecast for next week.

That was the most accurate 168 hr Euro control run of all time. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

Gefs continues to improve

Gefs continues to improve

Posting of fantasy storm thats so far out. Current systems being tracked can't make it within 3 days. The current system wasn't model to hit the area around the 16th and seems to be holding. Which is good for me as I'm driving to the farm by Eagles Mere PA.

06z GFS a bit odd. Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.

yea AIENS as well, after we get this first turd out of the way, 6Z GFS was pretty sweet in clown range

Overnight models showing a pretty reasonable "fail mode" in the fast flow we're in... 1. All of the PVA escapes east of the low and 2. The trough struggles to turn negative and fully consolidate due to the kicker system. In the end, it just turns into a paltry ULL passage with light snows. Even if a coastal low does pop, it's so far removed from any moisture. That's not to say the current OP runs are horrible, if the "floor" is a light 2-3" event with jacks to 6, that's fine. But some of the bigger solutions will only pan out if we can get this more consolidated.

Not sure what to make of this, except it doesn’t want to snow here on this run

What was that lol. Some weird runs overnight.

WB 6Z GFS is moving North as well....

EPS has a nice signal for this storm later this week. Way better than 12z.

I remember from the past, that some of biggest storms followed absolutely beautiful days which were sometimes almost spring-like.

Forky for the win lol