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Non-stop rain tonight.

I've been thinking about this too. Makes you wonder if with CC what is typical of el nino could be changing or if we've just been oversubscribing a small sample size. Either one says we aren't necessarily going to get a big GOA low. It also says maybe the El nino - PDO connection is less settled than we think.

Rain just keeps regenerating over my area. It just pluses up, dies down and pulses up again. It doesn't really move at all. It's been raining for hours now from it.

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.

I’m offering to perform this same kind of MADIS-inspired quality-control and calibration analysis for other personal weather-station owners. The analysis can examine data completeness, outages, nearby independent reference stations, duplicate feeds, temperature and humidity bias, pressure accuracy, wind multipliers, rainfall performance, and solar or ultraviolet readings where available. I would need at least 90 days of timestamped station. and for now I would analyze a maximum of one year. At minimum, I would also need the station location and elevation, hardware and sensor models, siting details, and any correction settings or known equipment changes. Anyone interested can direct-message me with their station information and available data. TLDR...... I take your station’s historical data and compare it against nearby independent weather stations, airport observations, MADIS/Xweather records, and local climate data. I clean the records, remove duplicate or unreliable stations, identify outages and bad readings, then measure how your temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, rain, solar, and UV differ from the best available references. From that, I produce a plain-language report showing what is accurate, what is biased, and which calibration settings should be kept, changed, or verified. I've slowly build it out.I’d describe the system as about 80% automated at this point. I collect the station and nearby reference data, then the system automatically cleans it, removes duplicate or unreliable feeds, identifies gaps, calculates biases, and generates most of the comparisons. I still manually review unusual results, confirm the best reference stations, and decide what calibration recommendations are scientifically defensible, and not just giving your wind data witch craft spells so it matches KMDT better and doesn't require rooftop thuggery. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Just getting crumbs compared to Wake and Harnett, but back building of moderate rain has yielded 0.40". 1.93" for the month.

That’s the heaviest rate I’ve ever observed. Several flashes of lightning, board clear, 12 minutes later 1” and ended up 2.75 for the hour

It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

This is what I was trying to get across to Adam. Like I have been saying, this isn't something I want, so it's not out of bias. @bluewave can tell you how I resistant I was to the idea in the lead up to 2023...I mocked him and made light of it, and the dude nailed it. No harm in getting it wrong....well do, just learn from it and be willing to adapt.

This is absolutely relevant to the ENSO discussion. U.S. weather is influenced by El Niño, and this entire thread is speculating about what it may mean for winter. But it is summertime right now, Niño 3.4 anomalies are already off the chart, and SST anomalies are nearing strong El Niño territory. The possible effects do not wait for December to begin.

Good for you guys in the east,this should help out with the drought anyways,. Ninos are always generally wet in Mid TN.in summer,kinda be surprised if anyone in TN has any drought as we head into fall

Incidentally, contemporary observers in 1936 did not simply pretend weather history began with the official national series. So I highly doubt anyone in 1936 was objecting that it was not really the hottest because the national record did not reach back to 1776. The chief of the Iowa Weather and Crop Bureau described July 1936 as the hottest in at least 117 years, drawing on regional observations extending back to 1819. The official CONUS record begins in 1895 because that is when coverage becomes adequate for a consistent national average — not because no weather observations existed earlier. We have scattered instrumental records from the eighteenth century and a rapidly expanding national network by the mid-nineteenth century. No, we cannot calculate an apples-to-apples CONUS average for 1776. But given the magnitude and enormous geographic footprint of July 1936, it is exceedingly difficult to believe that a still-hotter national July occurred in the preceding century without leaving a conspicuous instrumental and historical trail. “Hottest on record” is entirely correct — and 1936 was very likely exceptional over a considerably longer period.

That October 2011 event makes you remember when "snow maps" were still a new thing, and Met offices didn't know how to use them exactly, especially in the shoulder seasons. "Dumb guy snow output" ended up being too low. HWO THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY From AFD THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD

I just meant training rain..for hours!

Well, that’s a hot deal on Tuesday Nother night that night whence the temperature doesn’t drop very much

Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.

High of 88. Picked up .16" today with 2 separate showers.

What happened?

I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??

One thing that makes it so difficult to even distribute summer rain here in the east is the inability to have nighttime MCC events. Over the Plains, you can easily put down 1-2" over a large area with one of those systems, but we so rarely get EMLs here that MCCs can't survive the trip east.

Clearly this will be one of, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does.