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Not having wind was the key. We had a breeze off the sound all night and were about the only place in the island that didn't get below 20 (although technically we did if you have confidence in the 19.9° that my sensor reported). Without that breeze, the low single number dewpoints would have resulted in much lower temperatures IMBY. Orient has around 18 miles more latitude, but that means nothing under high pressure. It's all wind, elevation, and water exposure (or a combination). For those less familiar with LI geography, Orient Point is 2 or 3 miles farther north than Suffern NY. Roughly on a line with Ossining and Bridgeport.

Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love.

Been awhile since we’ve had a true Nowcast event like this.

Does it have it but to north on Sunday?

Cancel winter at your own peril on Dec 9th. It's a Mid Atlantic forum tradition which I don't partake in. Also, remember when I "canceled" the cold to start December? How well did that work out? I do think we see some warmth after the 20th. Is it a pattern change? It could be, but a 2-3 week pattern relaxation seems about right. The 12z Euro actually looks decent. Cold to the end of the run. The MJO is all over the place. I think there is convection in a lot of areas which is producing conflicting signals. John noted that yesterday. The plots at CPC are to the left of center, but chose your own adventure. The MJO has managed to loop back barely to 7 in the COD. I would guess it comes back around to 8. It normally goes counter clockwise. Why? Because the weather moves from west to east. Unless that changes, it doesn't really make long term transits in reverse. And my broken record advice...climatology does not support much snow at this time of year in the valleys. Enjoy being in the game in early December - that is a bonus for all bu the 1960s and a handle of winters since then. FTR, I have sat through many early December Christmas parade in short sleeves!

You just love being wrong. Its amazing.

No disagreement. We often see the same in the NCAA tournament with numerous 10+ loss teams making it. I guess they will be the NAM of the CFP.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution.

Most of us do that. Not like I get pumped for a CT special.

app says 33 but home temp says 26 lol I see the airport reporting station from my dads home.

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.

If that dry slot on the Hrrr doesn’t end up happening then this could really get interesting. Mpx said a day or two ago that they thought the Hrrr was too aggressive in how deep it brought the low. A slightly less intense storm may actually help our snow totals with this system with less chance of a significant dry slot developing. .

Historic warmth looks likely Xmas week as the pattern completely flips

Gotta stop saying these things with your BY in mind only. It looked pretty decent for a lot of us.

26 and cloudy for what was supposed to be 34 with sun. Euro deterministic gives Augusta 3.3" of snow Friday. Euro AI ens gives Augusta .3" of snow Friday. After looking at GEM and GFS, credibility is easy.

Alabama only got into the playoff because of their name. Take away their name, and their resume is no better than teams like Illinois or UConn. Actually, those teams beat the ACC Champion. Alabama lost to the 13th place ACC team. If Alabama is the playoff, then let Illinois and UConn be in at as well.

Last sighting seems to be October 21. Hopefully its not due to health or family problems.

Believe when you see it. It’ll mute big time. That ain’t happening.

That's fair. I think the tri-monthly is around -0.9 eyeballing it.

Seasons in seasons.

I would weight the GFS at 90% and give the the other two each 5%

Sun has started poppin' out here. I dig it.

We’re in an overall drought the past few years, warm or cold. .

No doubt.

I'm impressed that DCA made it to 20° with no snow cover before Christmas.