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So are the storms currently in Ohio the ones we should be watching for this afternoon?

warm and rainy

He's just regurgitating what the ECMWF shows.

Rain looks just about done

Couple of MCS complexes look to move through. One in east PA will clip us over next couple hours with much more significant one in the evening

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.

Slight Risk of Severe has been expanded by SPC east into our area - also that area of showers/storms in eastern PA is not the main event - look further west in eastern Ohio - also expect additional pop ups to develop starting at some point this afternoon when the atmosphere has had enough and needs to develop storms........who gets what and where lines of storms develop is the # 1 question

Threat increased

I would be careful with buying into it full-stock....I feel like these Modoki like solutions are overdoing it in the seasonal mean because they are undergoing the magnitude of the warmer interludes early on. Rather, I interpret those solutions as validation for my conceptualization of how the second half will evolve.

Surprising I could hear them all the way down here by 70.

The mid range looks super hot. I am ready for fall

Yeah, it's time to start paying attention. When there is a cold signal this strong during a robust el nino, it's trying to tell you something. Just look at 2009-10, which had a very strong cold signal there in the fall (of 2009). That one came with a backlash la nina. The 2009-10 strong el nino formed and dissipated quickly, which allowed a transition to a strong la nina. I wonder if the upcoming el nino peaks early and gives way to the development of a strong la nina in 2027-28. If it does, then expect a record warm summer in the East. Backlash la nina years, like 1973, 1988, and 2010, have produced record warm summers at PHL.

Some activity as the season gets into its peak period

I was driving through it on I83 in York. Epic shelf cloud and then whiteout rain

We had a few small pea size fall too

That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010.

Seeing subtle signs of a 'back stressed' summer synopsis. Not personally ready to go 'breaking', per se. I mean solar max ends only just today. These things take time. In fact, we had cooler last month in July for a stretch. However, in the general super synoptic aspect/layout the summer polar branch of the westerlies appears to be sinking S of 50 N (~) latitude. This was not the case in July. July's cool down(s) was a pretty glaring example of cheating, a leitmotif this summer up here in the NE. This summer appeared to single out our region for repeating heat offsets - yes ...this, despite being above normal. It could have been much worse. I feel we can't go by that metric so much though, now that everything in every direction seems to sniff like Gretta-taint at this point and probably forever more... We have to judge these through a relativistic lens. Having said that, heights are also still lingering around 582 DM, a summer value by convention. Still the subtle sign is both the jet coming S a bit, but also that the next heat expansion appears situating farther S across the CONUS .. ~ 120 thru 180 or so hours. This exposes our region to more fast mid level over top flow and probably ablates heat. Also in lieu of cloud and convection traffic. Heh, like trying to set up a lemonade stand on an Interstate. Beyond that into the deeper range, general climo starts to weigh -

The was the massive Atlantic ridge >594 DM parked off the Atlantic all of last week a bit to east to bring the persistent mid 90s + and strong heat has been capped since the 14th of July in the area.

1997 was easterly QBO/Low-ascending solar, so it isn't that surprising that the polar domain was more disturbed early on.

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1949) NYC: 98 (1949) LGA: 99 (1949) JFK: 94 (1949) Lows: EWR: 57 (1962) NYC: 55 (1879) LGA: 57 (1962) JFK: 54 (1964) Historical: 1778: A major hurricane struck along the east coast. The storm could have played a decisive role in a major naval battle between the French and British fleets, but British naval commanders failed to capitalize on their advantage after the larger French ships were damaged more heavily by the storm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1831: A violent hurricane devastated the island of Barbados. The death toll was estimated to be as high as 2,500 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1882 - Sandusky OH noted a four minute snow squall during the morning, frost was reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and a killing frost was reported at Cresco IA. (The Weather Channel) 1884 - An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering a magnitude 5.5, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The tremor made houses shake, chimneys fall, and residents wonder what the heck was going on, according to a New York Times article two days later. 1884: An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering 5.2 on the Richter scale, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The quake produced a small tsunami from the Hudson River to the Delaware River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1898 - The temperature at Pendleton OR climbed all the way to 119 degrees at set a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1924 - Colorado's deadliest tornado killed a woman and nine children in one house along its twenty-mile path east southeast of Thurman. Mennonite men had left the farm to provide possible aid, as the 200-yard wide storm was first seen while far away.(The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature soared to 114 degrees at Plain Dealing, LA, and reached 120 degrees at Ozark AR, to establish record highs for those two states. (The Weather Channel) 1943: The lightning of August 10, 1943. In the worst lightning incident in Washington, DC regional history, six soldiers were killed on a Ft. Belvoir drill field. A large group of soldiers was playing baseball, and the game had just been called due to the approaching storm. As the troops began to disperse, a bolt of lightning struck in the middle of the group. Six soldiers were instantly killed and the sudden bolt of lightning injured nine other men. (Unusual and Noteworthy Meteorological Events at Washington, D.C.) (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1974: Clayton Lake, N. Mex.--A camper was struck and killed by lightning at 9 p.m. during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1980 - Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1981: In Moapa Valley, 80 miles north of Las Vegas, NV two storms 14 miles apart dropped 6.5 inches and 5 inches of rain, respectively, with most of it (85%) occurring in 15 minutes. Rains of such intensity happen once every 200 to 500 years. 762 cattle were killed at a dairy in Hidden Valley. Damage in Moapa Valley was estimated at $10 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date. Macon GA hit 101 degrees. A tropical depression deluged southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana with torrential rains. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Citizens of Bluefield, WV, where the Chamber of Commerce provides free lemonade on days when the temperature warms into the 90s, were able to celebrate their record high of 90 degrees. Eight other cities also reported record high temperatures for the date,including Bismarck ND with a reading of 102 degrees.(The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary) 1992: Torrential rainfall caused flooding over parts of north-central Oklahoma. Rainfall of more than four inches in just a few hours produced widespread street flooding in Enid and collapsed the roof of a meat company in the city. Much of the Enid Correctional Center was severely damaged as all of the first floor housing units suffered water damage. Four inmates became trapped by the rising water and had to be rescued. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Lightning struck a nursing home at Sandy, UT. A patient was struck when the current entered his room, temporarily blinding him, but freeing him of intense pain he had been suffering for 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Baja California in Mexico, and Alberta in Canada lost power when the massive blackout occurred. High temperatures in the 90s and 100s sent the demand for power to high levels. Some of the specific highs included 88° at Seattle, WA, 98° at Portland, OR, a record breaking 100° at Burns, OR, 106° at Phoenix, AZ, and a record 110° at Sacramento, CA. Temperatures in the deserts of California and Arizona were in the 110-120° range. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: Lightning hit the Hog Island Association (Mummers Parade) building in Philadelphia, PA and set it on fire. More than 60% of the 100 costumes for the Mummers Parade were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2016: August 9-16. Weak low pressure combined with abundant Gulf moisture produced phenomenal rainfall and flooding across central Louisiana, inundating entire neighborhoods and towns, especially around Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Rainfall totals exceeded 20 inches in as little as two days. Thirteen people died and economic costs ranged from $10 to $15 billion. 2020: Summary: A well-organized and long-lived complex of storms produced widespread severe ? wind damage across Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana during the day on Monday, ? August 10. Much of this severe wind was significant (75+ mph winds) resulting in many ? downed trees, several toppled-over semi trucks, and many communities receiving at least ? some minor structural damage. Within the broader area of severe winds, 15 tornadoes were ? confirmed across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. (Ref.Chicago Derecho that also hit Iowa with 110 MPH winds.)