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February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)

Looking at some 12z NAM bufkit locations we're still looking at 45-50 mph gusts region wide but there may still be a sliver of a window where there could be some gusts in the 55-60 range somewhere. Many soundings still have ~50 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Obviously this doesn't guarantee that translates to the surface.

We excel at long-range fantasy storms!

Will be interesting to see if it extends this cool punch by a few days next week. Euro has been trying to flush it in and out in about 36 - 48 hours.

Ha, end of the 6z Euro AI has a KU look to it.

It’s showing an east-based -NAO for December

We were apparently a bit more fortunate over here in the '70's irt November Snowfall. 8" Thanksgiving 1971. 2" early November '74, 4" Nov.12-13, 76. 11" (12" Pennington gap, 16" Big Stone) Nov.26,77. The '80's had no major November Snowfalls other than Higher Elevations in 1987. A few inch or less events ; 1981, 85, 87, 89. As you alluded to, the '60's had measurable Snow nearly every November.

JB has been lamenting the euro mid range warmth bias forever now. Always talks about how it's unable to see cold in the mid-longer range.

I think it was. But I don't see the CAPE in this one really. That one did.

Yeah. There was Wright Weather Board before Eastern that many went to Eastern from as well.

My honest opinion that he exagerates some of this stuff moving forwards, but to be fair to him, the jury is still out.

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

Hoping @vortex95swoops in later today and assures that everything still on track from his post yesterday

I will let the admins know....as usual it may take a day or two.

Was that widespread?

Similar on PAC side but 25-26 forecast has more Atlantic blocking. Last year Euro had blocking too far west & totally missed Atlantic side blocking

I want for him to be wrong too but unfortunately the laws of physics and reality couldn’t care less about what we want.

We had no power and lots of damage here from that.

That was a derecho

Thoughts on this from anyone? Perhaps there is now a Euro mid-range high QPF/warmth bias that erodes as we close on events this winter?

If accumulating snow looks possible for Monday out in Canaan, I might have to head out Sunday and hit up Stumptown Ales. I wonder if @jonjon has sold it yet. He was talking about moving to Berlin, I think.

Odds are the strat would only save New England for he second half, not the mid atl.

January was much cooler but Feb was slightly warmer lol