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Was just coming to post about the dropsondes. Let's see what the next pass looks like but that was a substantial drop in pressure between center fixes.

hurricane now.

@Skivt2

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS BECOMES A HURRICANE... Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was 982 mb (29.00 inches). SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

Yea, I have it falling just short.

Oh no not at all. This is probably modest impact at best. Severe risk tbd.

Hurricane warnings hoisted for extreme W FL, AL, E MS.

Looking pretty Nino at h5 on the latest Euro extended product by mid November. Would be nice to have that Aleutian trough/downstream ridge position for much of the winter.

Yeah, I know. Thanks for calming me down

He had a shit fit over an emote. His post didn't make much sense, as usual.

Great sunset in Gulf Shores AL tonight

Also saw some frost on the rooftops Tuesday morning, and leaves are starting to change. Some signs of the changing of the seasons...last winter was great with lots of WNW and NW flow.

982mb dropsonde

Don’t really think this will be Helene for anyone including western NC. If memory serves me right they had a predecessor rain event just days before Helene.

I know man but WTF. I'm over here minding my business getting tagged by smartasses for no reason. Just let it get under my skin tonight.

yore

On the cusp at 11pm

He is an old ass curmudgeon. Just ignore it.

Just ignore and consider the source(s).

this thread is almost as heated as el nino this year

Remember this one? Nobody in CT does. Mass special.

Yeah, good recall. That was highly impactful.

I'm one of those weirdos that tends to over anthropomorphize stuff all the time and when I saw that slide from that model run yeah, that looks just like a big 'ol Inuit mitten scooping out warm air over the continent leaving a trail for some good wet cold lol. I'm also a believer in storm track trends and when they set in it can be hard for them to break. I forget which one of the few insanely cold winters we had last decade but I remember it started with a huge super typhoon in mid Nov that translated via the N jet across the continent and left and insanely strong like 1060mb polar ridge in its wake that basically stayed for most of the winter. I remember it sucked because we froze while the storm track was suppressed way south with southern snows across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Until that point we were being forecasted to have a snowy even odds cold/mild winter and had been having a decent SW/NE oriented storm track. Anyway, lol, my point before my ADD rambling set in was the storm track through most of the summer has been oriented in such a manner that one would think cutter time is at hand. We've got a Super Nino to juice things up yet we've had some pretty stout cold shots re-enforced by some deep digging lows, lots of cutoffs, right through our neck-o-the woods. As warm as this summer was (mostly in high overnight lows) we had some strong cold shots too. I seem to remember a dip into the 40's once or twice in July. Regardless I don't think we'll be lacking moisture this winter and Nino's don't necessarily mean no snow. If the storm track pattern stays put in it's current general orientation could be fun. Of course it'll be nail biters as usual IBY lol. Snow 5 miles N, rain 5 miles S and pingers on top. Enough rambling lol