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Getting snipped?.

Digital red = lots of digital blue

Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast.

6z GFS & Euro AI at 6z also bumped north.

@The 4 Seasons25.2”

Just saw the 6z euro and euro AI. I kind of like that look.

Some of the good posters on the mid-atlantic board expect it to come more north.

My productivity at work is about to be negative 100 this week

The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like. I am guessing there is some feedback in that. The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs. 0z UKMET is the furthest north. Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs. 6z ICON if you want something to worry about.

Sure....further north, but I live on the NH border, dude.

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks. Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it.

I’m seeing that possibility as well. That 00z Euro is showing 3 pieces of energy.

They will probably be off all week.

The somewhat slower evolution is a big deal. It allows the high to erode some which will lead to north ticks. It also allows more phasing and energy to come in which slows down the storm and increases duration. With timing shifting more towards later Sun-Mon that will also increase impacts for all. So you go from a significant/major storm to a KU biggie

Yes the phase adds a new layer of caution and risk. VA is in a good spot because they’ll cash in on the WAA goods one way or the other it seems I’m likely just staying here. If Philly gets completely screwed then this was likely either well over phased or compressed and it wasn’t historic for anyone. I can see a word where the NW burbs end up being the place to go if we see a pd2 type progression .

Snowfall totals for the Jan 18-19th system. Thanks to everyone who sent me a report, i tried to use most of them if i could fit them in. All these maps and more for the 25-26 season will always be up on the site, i may need to delete from here at some point for storage. Thanks! Lower Northeast Tri-State Area

Oh wow that's classic for a KU event in these parts.

DGZ is -12C to -17C. For many across SE PA, the entire atmospheric column is between this up to like 600 or 500mb. Even down to the surface in many places. If you throw some strong omega into the mix, poor snow growth would be the least of my worries. You're right though, if things were colder than -17C then we'd be looking at less stellar dendrites

The 0z (and seems like 6z) euro evolution is what I was honking at last night with the 18z run. Long duration events are super rare for a reason, but I’m getting major PD2 type vibes with overrunning and then a coastal. This thing keeps slowing down though so we’re only gaining like 45 minutes on the start time for every hour that passes lol.

Looks like the timing of the peak was such that Europe got the best of it last night. Some spectacular pictures. France:

6z euro would’ve been absolutely crazy if it went past 144

The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°. For some reason the raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground. But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast.

I was just thinking the same thing. That euro solution was interesting. Too soon to really over analyze much imo but for winter enthusiasts it’s looking promising.

Euro 144hrs 700mb RH map. Southwesterly winds pumping in Gulf moisture all the way back to central Missouri. Yeah...it's gunna' keep snowing for a while after the 144hr panel.

The one thing i worry about is if local mets have been torched time after time that they are afraid to hype this up early and completely drop the ball when it comes to getting info out in a timely manner if this storm is as advertised. .