All Activity

The last two GFS op runs are well east of the GEFS mean days 5 through 6 with the shortwave and SLP in the east. The GEFS mean shows precipitation primarily in the lower MS valley while the op GFS shows it along and off the east coast. Discounting the op runs for now though an eastward trend is noted in the other mid-range op models. The GEFS seem to be somewhat of a compromise between the 12z EPS and GEPS. The GEFS would put us right on the edge of both significant precipitation and marginal temperatures for wintry precipitation.

Looking like a '90s map though

Not sure about this.AccuWeather..

Hate to say it but an amped Madison special at the break of December ain’t necessarily a bad thing based on trends it seems for nearly a decade. We need to bury the south east suppressed program early this year.

Well... I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised. Not sure if I said this here or just thought it to myself, but I was convinced that the early December torch signal was gonna break the streak of every E US Ridge trending into a trough. And that we were going to be flooded with 60s to start the meteorological season. Todays 18z suite so far looks to be an extension of the trends already present on the 12z runs. We might even have our first accumulating snow event of the season. Per the 18z GFS, a relatively weak shortwave will round the base of the longwave/TPV lobe and a fast moving system could bring some light snowfall for someone in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast early next week. Hopefully this isn't a repeat of 2024-25 where everything does a mega south trend to Antarctica

Let’s get that down to 26hrs then we talking.

Rippin' puddles here.

The Hayli Gubbi eruption: Reddit link I’ve been fairly preoccupied and trying to stay on top of all these volcanic developments and catch up in various threads here. Rest assured if anything really major happens on the volcanic front I’ll do a write up about it - though Hayli Gubbi erupting fits that bill as this doesn’t happen often (long dormant system suddenly waking up due to magma from a neighbor system), and this may not be fully over depending on what’s going on down below.

A euro vs gfs showdown again Usually waa wins. Gfs evolution is just strange. Definitely need some sampling of this system to help models.

We're good.

Winter IS coming.

Yep... Agree

Kilauea is doing sustained summit eruptions and recurrent lava fountaining - not to sell it short, spectacular lava fountaining. Apparently Kilauea is under increased magma supply right now from the hotspot and it’s putting it to good use filling in the 2018 caldera. Mount Rainier is just normal rumblings of its hydrothermal system, if it were to progress to something more the activity would present quite differently IMO. Very likely absolutely nothing other than standard activity. Laki Laki has had the biggest eruptions in its know history this year, it too potentially being under a period of increased magmatic supply. Several substantial sub-plinian blasts, I think combined definitely VEI4 territory. Big story right now is in Africa, a volcanic vent that’s been dormant through the Holocene - Hayli Gubbi just had a substantial eruption, possibly a small 4 or large 3 but a very gassy for the size due to the type of magma. The SO2 plume was actually similar to the early estimates of the MUCH larger Hunga Tonga eruption, which goes to show how eruption size doesn’t ALWAYS dictate the amount of gas reaching the stratosphere. Erta Ale, a very active system with a famous lava lake, had a bunch of its magma drain out and apparently form a lateral dike that extended under Hayli Gubbi, hit a pocket of stale, gassy magma, heat it up, and cause it to erupt. Super fascinating. Still ongoing too. We’ll see what happens. This theoretically could progress as I don’t think we really know what’s sitting under that system. The Afar region is poorly studied and monitored outside Erta Ale which is a big tourist attraction, well relatively speaking. The danakil depression / Afar region is super hazardous topography, very hot and very alien looking. Lot of crazy volcanism. Fernandina in the Galapagos is having a major swarm right now, that’s a very cool volcano that had a substantial and unusual basaltic plinian caldera eruption in the 1950’s. I think a large VEI 4, but still somewhat unique and was quite an intense (fast) event. We’ll see what happens. Lots of stuff going on right now, we’ll see how everything progresses.

18z vs 12z below

I stand by my statements that the GFS should get zero consideration in anything going forward. It’s not useful even from a 500 mb level in the medium range anymore. This summer was an all-time abysmal performance with the tropics and chasing extreme warmth that only happened once. With that being said, it’s a 2 in a room of 4s. I’m not bragging a bit on the other models. Even the AIFS which sniffed out the cold Dec start has endured a windshield wiper effect.

Scored more than up here lately.

18z GEFS didn't really change much from 12z.

It seems like GFS has been depicting year-round longrange torch exaggeration for about two years now.

Time will tell. At some point our crew gets to eat too. I still have a good feeling about next month. If we repeat the upcoming pattern later in winter, I won’t be as bullish for CAD regions because it would favor too much suppression.

I'm still in the warm/wet or cold/dry camp, for now. I agree that chances are next week won't work out along the coastal plain. But no two snow events are exactly alike. This period could work out, so we track.

Give the lowlands their due. They always deserve to score.

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.

Let's hope we get a better end result for foothills areas

Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour.