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Straight up unimpressive in the last hour. Radar kinda looks like shit too and that sleet line is racing. We really need to improve and fast.

Took the 0z observed soundings in Nashville and Greensboro n/c and compared them to 0z hour on 18z run of hrrr, nam, GFS. Subject: 00z Sounding Validation Analysis: Mid-Level (850-500 hPa) Model Performance Report This analysis evaluates the handling of the mid-tropospheric environment for the January 25, 2026, 00z cycle. Validation is performed against observed balloon soundings at Nashville (KBNA) and Greensboro (KGSO), focusing on thermal profiles, moisture depth, and vertical motion (omega). I. Nashville, TN (KBNA) - Analysis of Pre-System Moistening The 00z KBNA sounding revealed a transition toward a more saturated mid-level environment as synoptic-scale lift began to overspread the region. * Mid-Level Warmth (Thermal Profile) * HRRR Performance: Exceptional handling of the 850-500 hPa lapse rates. The HRRR achieved an RMSE of 0.57°C, accurately resolving the cooling trend at the 700 hPa level (-2.4°C observed). * NAM/GFS Performance: Both models exhibited a notable warm bias in the mid-layers. RMSE values hovered around 0.93°C, with both models over-forecasting the 700-500 hPa thickness, likely due to slightly aggressive warm air advection (WAA) timing. * Mid-Level Moisture (Saturation Depth) * HRRR Performance: Most representative of the moisture plume depth. It maintained a Dew Point RMSE of 1.05°C, correctly identifying the saturation of the mid-levels. * NAM/GFS Performance: These models were too aggressive with the "dry slot," keeping the 700-500 hPa layer too dry compared to the observed moisture. This would have resulted in an under-forecast of mid-level cloud opacity. * Mid-Level Lift (Omega/Vertical Velocity) * HRRR/NAM Alignment: Both models correctly signaled weak but consistent large-scale ascent. Observed Omega values in the mid-levels ranged between -0.1 and -0.3 µb/s. * GFS Performance: Too neutral. The GFS failed to capture the subtle dynamic lift associated with the incoming shortwave, lagging behind the high-resolution guidance. II. Greensboro, NC (KGSO) - Analysis of Subsidence and Dry Stability In contrast to Nashville, the Greensboro environment was dominated by a dry, stable mid-level regime associated with a prominent subsidence inversion. * Mid-Level Warmth (Thermal Profile) * HRRR Performance: Led the field with an RMSE of 1.16°C. It was the only model to successfully resolve the sharp gradient of the subsidence inversion near the 800-750 hPa layer. * NAM/GFS Performance: Poor handling of the stable layer. Both were significantly too warm (RMSE 1.89°C to 2.12°C), essentially "washing out" the inversion and over-predicting the mid-level temperature. * Mid-Level Moisture (Dry Layer Integrity) * HRRR Performance: Closest match to the observed dry slot with an RMSE of 1.80°C. It maintained the integrity of the dry mid-level air. * NAM Performance: Major outlier. The NAM exhibited a massive moisture bias (RMSE 5.11°C). It forecasted a nearly saturated mid-troposphere, whereas the sounding showed a significant dew point depression. This represents a significant failure in boundary layer/mid-level moisture mixing. * Mid-Level Lift (Omega/Vertical Velocity) * HRRR/GFS Alignment: Correctly identified the sinking motion (subsidence) prevalent in the post-frontal/high-pressure regime. Both showed positive Omega values (descending air) of +0.1 to +0.4 µb/s. * NAM Performance: Showed very weak, nearly neutral vertical motion. This lack of sinking air likely explains why the NAM failed to keep the mid-levels dry. III. Summary Numerical Ranking (850-500 hPa Layer) Scores are based on a normalized average of RMSE across Temperature, Dew Point, and Wind components specifically within the mid-troposphere. * HRRR (Score: 0.72) — TOP TIER * The clear winner for vertical resolution. It is the only model currently capable of resolving sharp inversions and mid-level moisture gradients with high accuracy. * GFS (Score: 1.08) — MID TIER * Reliable for general synoptic trends but lacked the resolution to handle the specific thermal structure of the inversion at KGSO and the lift at KBNA. * NAM-Nest (Score: 1.25) — LOW TIER * Significant moisture handling issues at KGSO and a persistent warm bias in stable layers. Use with caution for cloud cover and precipitation type forecasting in this regime. Technical Conclusion For practitioners focusing on mid-level dynamic features (e.g., cloud depth, precipitation efficiency, or lapse rate steepness), the HRRR is currently providing the most reliable guidance. The NAM is currently showing a high "false alarm" rate for mid-level moisture in high-stability regimes. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Sucks how this was going to be our storm and the northeast just stole it again.

Severna Park Temp: 16.3 DewPoint: 12.6 Barometer: 30.54 (falling) Moderate Snow - 1/2 inch so far

Yes….newest one mentioned nudging amounts up slightly

Correction for me it was 2 inches of snow and over a dozen hours analyzing the setup. I think I’ll disappear after this storm for a long time.

19/18 Light sleet in Tega Cay- 1st precip all night outside of freezing mist

769 FXUS61 KPHI 250720 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 220 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Snowfall totals were nudged up slightly, maybe an inch or so in most spots. Impacts remain unchanged. A major winter storm continues to unfold

Can confirm. Switched to sleet/snow in the past 5 minutes. Successfully stayed up for the sleet line.

Let's go for the new high end map

So far still have power but unsure how long it can keep up. hvac system was struggling earlier keeping up with the cold temps and was kicking into aux. dropped heat to 64 and started a fire and got the house to a toasty 68 going back to sleep until someone wakes me up that they’re too cold

OMG we are getting destroyed right n5

Sunday Snow, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 17. Wind chill values as low as zero. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Monday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 21. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Haven’t gone outside yet to look at the damage I’m too afraid. We’ve been in freezing rain/mist for hours in Clarksville after the 4-5 in of snow. temps increased from 14-16 up to 20 humidity sitting strong at 85 dew point rise up to 16

If I’m reading the CC correctly, sleet line just out of Charlottesville. Just popped up.

I second that and I hope I’m 110% wrong!!!!!

That’s what she said. Hope you see many more, would bode well for me in South Jersey near Philly.

I'm trying to stay up at least until the changeover in 5 minutes.

western Chester County: WSW went from 6-10 to 7-13

Yup crush job for many.. its been a long time since everyone got.into a big one like this! LFG!!!!

I think he was referring too the storm a few days later on the AI

Guys. It's snow. Come on. Let's stop arguing. If it snows, it snows. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Arguing about it won't change what actually happens. Either Noteast101 is right or he's wrong. I hope he's wrong. I hope we transfer over to a coastal and it blasts us. If it doesn't, it doesn't. The souffle will either rise or it won't. There's not a damn thing you can do about it.

Can we not bitch and moan on every little thing? We are 5-7 hours away from game time.

Been watching the Del traffic cameras. When it does start snowing it comes in kind of heavy, but kind of hard to tell at the same time. (I'm bored at work so this helps pass time)

Do they do overnight AFD's?