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  2. canderson
    Roughly what time would MDT flip to sleet according to that NAM (which I think is pretty dialed in)? Was realy wanting 12” snow but don’t think it’s happening. Oh well.
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    We're at nowcasting time (vs wishcasting) and will soon be doing obs. If this were a classic "Miller A" or a clipper, it would be easier to model. It's be more of a PITA because it starts at night.
  4. Baroclinic Zone
    18z icon came in cooler than 12z run.
  5. GBOVolz
    Does that change your thinking? .
  6. marsman
    26 / -3 in SE Cary with sleet.
  7. John1122
    The GEM had 3 clippers in about 36 hours to end the week at 12z. It seems it didn't run at 12z today.
  8. bncho
    Will this greatly improve the verification scores of the American models? Will the GFS be an actual model to consider once this new core is implemented?
  9. Ander
    Just took the dog for a last walk before this and it started pinging pretty good in Durham over by Southpoint about about 348.
  10. Birds~69
    Seems logical. Start and end times? *Going w/11"-13" for my area. The thump better THUMP though...
  11. GBOVolz
    Halls, Hwy 33 at Emory Rd. N Knox Co .
  12. RU848789
    That's incorrect. Mt.Holly is only 5" south of 276/195; 6" north or there and contiguous with Upton...
  13. vortex95
    Almost identical to its 12z.
  14. kdxken
    When does the cold start bothering the chickens?
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yes. Maybe not quite as wild as 12k but same general idea.
  16. RVASnowLover
    Feel like we’re in store for a huge sleet fest
  17. HinghamBoss
    Anyone else with nervous energy based on: - remarkable alignment / continuity over last 4 to 5 days - positive trends as we get closer
  18. John1122
    Flake size staying around nickel at best but lots of them now. Very high ratio powder. About the best contrast I have is taking a photo towards a vehicle. Curious if the big flakes come right before sleet or not.
  19. WEATHER53
    And almost always sooner is better than later for DC. Don’t know why but it’s observationally correct
  20. AccuChris
    18z rapid refresh was a slight improvement and the 19z HRRR was a tick colder as well at H17/18. Definitely going to be a nowcast situation as it unfolds .
  21. North and West
    Big basketball day here, so I like checking in and seeing conflicting reports. .
  22. Winterweatherlover
    I'm in southern tip of Yonkers so I'm pretty familiar with the NW Bronx, def more hilly and less urban than most of the city. The biggest difference is in marginal temp surface events, since this is upper levels I don't know how much it helps but having a little extra latitude should help in this setup.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looks like at H5 the kicker dropping in from Canada has kind of ended up sweeping everything, including the Baja wave, out north and east. All that spawns a gulf low, but nothing too wound up. Just a massive load of moisture overrunning and what the New England weenies call a southwest flow event. It doesn’t all ever really phase so much as it just keeps truckin.
  24. high risk
    I would love if it takes that long, but I'm mentally prepared for 13-14z.
  25. LordBaltimore
    I'm just glad the models don't seem to be backing off the +PNA anytime soon
  26. ErinInTheSky
    Got a good pot of gumbo going and locked in for a big winter event
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