All Activity

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville, Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan, Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain, Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance, Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton, Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley, Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville, Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Any weather App is really only good for two things. Telling you what is happening right now, and giving you a vague idea about possible precip within the next two to three days. I see folks planning things a week out using them and ive stopped trying to show or tell them how messed up that is. No one understands that there isnt a team of PEOPLE working daily/hourly to update it. I've stopped pointing out to family and friends how different several apps can be for pretty much everything! Its actually not extremely difficult to learn a tiny bit about pressure systems and fronts and how they interact at different times of the year to do your own predicting in a general sense.

A lot of uncertainty still. I have the highest respect as a hobby person for meteorology, and the people trying to forecast this. This region this time of year is just level 10 out of 10 difficulty.

This seems reasonable and smart. The western side of the great valley is likely the area where cold won't scour easily so Ice Storm Warning makes sense, the mountain counties are still covered by WWA and northern areas with Storm Warning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

36 hrs til the first flakes

I know its unavoidable and unfair, but shit like this is exactly why the public makes "weathermen" the butt of so many jokes and thinks they over-hype the weather. These models really do seem to have gotten worse than they used to be. The public is out there right now being told to expect a foot of snow based on the NWS forecast... and the doubters and mockers are laughing saying that isn't going to happen and they're crazy... and sadly I now expect them to be right when we wake up Sunday morning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union- Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette, Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia, Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard, Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown, Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford, Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville, Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National, Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville, Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk Valley 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Looks like ICON is going to jump up our snow.

It’s loud, I can tell you that much. Have been through a couple. Friends at college went through VDay 2007 up in PA with 5+” of sleet. They said it sounded like a barrage of BB’s for hours on end hitting the house. Crazy

Any chance the warm layers are being overdone? Is it possible to have a snow/sleet mix after the flip that os more like 6-1 ratio wise?

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NCZ060-061-TNZ036-067>070-081>085-098>100-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.IS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Cherokee-Clay-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Sequatchie- Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- Including the cities of Lone Oak, Jefferson City, Grandview, White Pine, Oak Ridge, Rockwood, Fairview, Dayton, Old Washington, Lookout Mountain, Martin Springs, Bearden, Unaka, Knoxville, Loudon, Powells Crossroads, Athens, Chestnut Hill, Hiawasse Dam, Hayesville, Dentville, Harriman, Whitwell, Cartwright, Etowah, Marble, Jasper, Shooting Creek, Lake Forest, Bradbury, Monteagle, Clear Water, Andrews, Clinton, Eagle Furnace, Pikeville, Brasstown, Spring City, Signal Mountain, Murphy, Chattanooga, Dunlap, Palio, Strawberry Plains, Mount Crest, Topton, Brayton, Cleveland, Lenoir City, Kingston, South Pittsburg, Melvine, Evensville, Tasso, Dandridge, Cagle, Haletown (Guild), Violet, Big Spring, Tusquitee, Old Cumberland, and Oliver Springs 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 /854 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina and East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any higher ridge tops within the warning area, along with portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, and Mowbray Mountain will have gusty winds in addition to the ice accumulation which will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages for these locations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Icon trended toward the GFS solution giving more of a thump of a snow in Northern NC and southern VA

SNE looks like sweet spot for this. I also think NYC comes back with much less mixing…

it speaks for itself....but i keep reading here that these kuchera maps are unreliable.

1/23 12z RGEM

I'm not sold on widespread ideal snow growth ratios. I think a general 10"-14" is a good bet with lollis on the coast.

Mike- Thanks for the insight and taking time out. Us "largely lurkers" learn a little something with any exchange like the above. Obliged.

Thats a solid, long term, event around here as depicted in that run.

I think it's ISW vs WSW. The WSW text for western counties includes up to 1/2" of ice and 1-3" of sleet/snow. If trends continue to favor more IP, they likely opt for a blanket WSW. ISW has connotations that they are understandably careful with invoking.

RGEM a touch colder than 6Z. Minor. But every little bit should help.

2'' of qpf and a sleet bomb is hard to picture as to what that even looks like outside. Pretty wild stuff.

Man, that’s close for my backyard.

I’ve been in this boat since yesterday. The trend to lower QPF has been clear and the dry slot is a distinct possibility. Would be in line with how the rest of the year has played out

They are slow updating the map, but it’s winter storm warnings, ice storm warnings and winter weather advisories