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Just checked in on Frederick radar and my station reporting. Wow what a deluge of rain over there. My station is currently at 1.06”. Will check on it later for a final amount.
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Thanks. That's the challenge, is there systemic bias in either direction enough to make it statistically significant, or does it all work out in the end? And then we have the notion that precision always equals accuracy! One line I will always recall, "we have very good models today that can give very precise-looking output that can be precisely wrong!" I saw Fox Brook in the HYDCAR text product. They don't give any more info for stations in the decode format at least.
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1.81 winding down now
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It's been thunderstorming here for an hour but it's just now actually raining. That may have been the longest, loudest, closest thunder I've seen that wasn't producing rain. There's a gap to my NW in the storms and I'm completely fine if the line break passed my area. I hate straight line wind events. I usually lose power for 12+ hours in them.
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No rain today but had storms to my East and west. High of 90.
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I didnt even get anything here. Bust.
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And i was right .04 for the event..a 3 minute shower and a 10 minute shower
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
nrgjeff replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's still got a snow tag. Might as well add winter, lol! Perhaps that's just to make us feel less hot right now. After the severe today they have flash flood risk for Wednesday. Can't argue with a front stalling. What else do they do in July? Got a tropical system far enough away to be no threat, but it still helps pump in moisture. Ambient moisture is enough anyway. These dewpoints are ludicrous even for July!- 390 replies
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I did notice the bottom of the conversation mention 18z but the update time is 7:48pm so i'm a little confused. I guess i'm just assuming they would take it down if they thought if all risk was over at that 7:48 update is the point that I was trying to make. -
Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%. Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!
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One thing today to the W in WV into wrn VA, lots of intense cells and tornadic signatures embedded well into larger precip areas, something you see more in a strongly-forced, dynamical set ups, which we do have today w/ the strong 500 trough and a solid 250 jet max moving into the region now. Not something you see in the summer that often.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I know a lot of people have given up hope. And I i myself assumed severe is over, but as of the last updates, at 7:48pm Nws seems to still have their eye on the sky. I would have thought they would have changed that if they weren't still foreseeing some possibilitie. National Weather Service State College PA 748 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through the evening hours today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through the evening hours today. We are in standby mode for now as the copious amount of energy/lift/strong upper level diffluent flow (associated with the left exit region of a 100+ KT jet) has produced an expansive area of weak convection embedded in light to moderate rain. All of this thick/debris cloud cover will prevent deep convection through the early afternoon, but pockets of fairly quick destabilization via breaks of sun should spread into western PA and remain over our far SE zones to trigger some deeper convection by or shortly after 18Z. We`ll be closely monitoring satellite trends and meso-B stability and shear fields to better hone in on areas under the gun for potential impact of fast-moving TSRA.
