Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. wxdude64
    Yes. The 'remains' of something upstream passing thru this morning NW to SE. Something that hasn't happened in a good while. Decent rain and deep rumbles of thunder over the past two hours. About .2-.25" in the gauge currently. Temp 66.5/66.1.
  3. jm1220
    Yep, looks like the exact same areas will get pummeled again or at least the highest chance.
  4. Rmine1
    Yeah LI will be predominantly some moderate showers. Hit or miss type of stuff. Just like the last event.
  5. adam7288 started following July 2026
  6. ChescoWx
    Hi Don, I made no references at all to NCEI adjustments - the program identified the NCEI adjusted data. I had it review the NCEI adjustment criteria and assess based on those thresholds how the actual vs raw data surrounding changes for either TOB or site moves matched the critiera established by NCEI based on the adjustment papers.
  7. Brian5671
    Typical convective nature of these summer events. Some areas that have gotten hit could make a run at 15-18 inches of rain this month
  8. yoda
    30 wind nudged NEward on 1300z OTLK from SPC... includes i95 corridor and DC metro and Baltimore metro
  9. jm1220
    Been wetter than average for July in my backyard but otherwise anything of real interest has missed. Severe weather July 4th missed east and the heavy flooding rain north and west. Zzzzzz and looks to continue that way. Hopefully since we’re still in a long term drought enough survives east of the city to make it to an inch here total but this seems to be another either you’re flooded out or dry. At least the lawns are green and no swarms of pests that come after flooding rains.
  10. Stormlover74
    Will the wet pattern continue? Do we see a return to heat or remain seasonal?
  11. LakePaste25
    If it’s anything like 97-98 there will be a lot of coastal storms that are mostly rain.
  12. bluewave
    Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social Follow Graphs showing cumulative area burned and carbon emissions in Ontario. Note in terms of area burned 2021 is the top spot but 2026 is top spot in terms of carbon emissions. Both are correct. The reason for this is that the 2026 fires are more severe - consumed more biomass (greater depth of burn). ALT ALT 7:12 PM · Jul 19, 2026 Everybody can reply
  13. Typhoon Tip
    Does anyone know of any sources that extends the cyclone phase diagram/tech outside of just tropical applications? I am well aware of this found Bob Hart's found here, https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ I recall seeing this method applied to other cyclone types in the past, but I'm not finding those sites. I'm just been sort of frustrated by the models insistent on sub 1000 mb low spin up over NJ, amidst 570+ thickness in all radial directions. That latter circumstance is odd. It is not the typical baroclinic model ( to some degree ) low, which is physically necessary for extratropical cyclones. You know? warm sector, cold sector, cool sector. So I'm just wondering if we're seeing some kind of a quickly evolving hybrid warm core leaning type low pressure here... It may account for the more robust solutions, if some of the thermodynamic/UVM forcing were sharing space. Regarding rainfall... we seem to be peaking PWAT against climo - which is a pretty tall order. What comes along with that is bigger rain relative indicators - synergy of sorts. Basically, it is an increased chances that locations will observe bigger results from surprising smaller reasons to do so. That's what happens in heavier moistened events; suspending a fall column through them, what reaches the ground is closer to source. etc.. So this system is slow-ish moving. A training band even in a weaker total low that (say) proves the NAM/Euro are over sensitive at "boundary of existence" - which I don't see how this thing can be a 995 mb low unless the phase might expose it has shared thermodynamic processes... - could end up being hefty anyway. EDIT: okay I did find this... same site actually. heh. It does seem there's a bit of warmer lean to this thing's profile. interesting https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/archive/26072800/231.html
  14. donsutherland1
    I don't have objections to his use of AI to assist with the analysis. But my read is that he essentially guided the AI to reach a desired conclusion concerning NCEI's "cooling". To illustrate how AI can be steered into erroneous conclusions, a climate contrarian and musician on X often engages in extreme misuse of AI (prompt injection and bullying based on the limited set of prompts he has posted e.g., he restricts the AI's to a strictly "first principles" analysis excluding substantial information then follows up asking that other things be excluded) to push multiple AI's into denying anthropogenic climate change. This case does not go to such extreme ends. My point is that one has to be careful when crafting prompts if one aims to reach strong, objective analytical outcomes. One can even ask AI to assess and revise the prompt before utilizing it. In my view, a better approach would have involved sharing the raw data for the stations, making no references to NCEI's adjustments in the prompt(s), sharing station move/TOBS information, other relevant information. etc. and then asking whether one could rely on the raw data, alone, over time to construct a representative or reliable long-term climate record. One could also ask the AI to provide an explanation/analysis and generate a reproducible methods section (assuming sufficient information is available). Afterward, if the output suggested that the raw data, alone, created a flawed climate record, one could upload the various papers describing NCEI's adjustments, and ask the AI to assess those adjustments, their impact on addressing the flaws in the climate record, etc.
  15. hudsonvalley21
    Can actually say we don’t really need that much today. First time in a long while for that statement. Picked a good time to be in Cancun this week. Fingers crossed for no flooding and damage to all.
  16. forkyfork
    i would like big totals plz
  17. Kmlwx
    The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of.
  18. Met1985
    This could get interesting later on. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  19. IrishRob17
    Hoping for a miss here as well, close to 10" here for July at this point.
  20. eyewall
    NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward.
  21. Weather Will
    Nice morning in OC
  22. Kmlwx
    Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times.
  23. Brian5671
    I'm hoping it misses here-the big totals-still alot of cleanup ongoing after last week's flooding/damage
  24. jm1220
    Yep, seems pretty straightforward to me. Models almost unanimously nailing that area that got hit last week too.
  25. yoda
    It looks like its leaving a gap in the middle
  26. ravensrule
    Turn the shower head down.
  27. Today
  28. Eskimo Joe
    Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...