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  2. Chief83
    Been reading the issue of the late cold snap having negative effects on the fruit trees and vineyards and wonder if anyone else has concerns about the lack of new leaves on some of the trees. We have several well established older trees that I'm pretty sure startled showing new green leaves a few weeks ago. Now all that new growth ( it was pretty limited) appears to be dead and no new green is seen. Did the new growth freeze?. It could be these trees are a variety of naturally late getting leaves, but now it is May and they look like a leafless January tree. I don't think they are dead, but I do wonder if or when they will show signs of life. As I drive around I see other trees in the same condition.
  3. rimetree
    April ends about avg. temp wise here but definitely pretty dry. Picked up 0.39 today, which is the most daily precip we've had all month. Looking forward to some active weather coming up.
  4. wncsnow
    Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next.
  5. so_whats_happening
    That is why it is important for the 500mb to react in the proper manner so things do actually connect. Just because a precursor occurs to create this Strat warming/+GPH pattern but nothing actually sticks at 500mb than you just get warming aloft and nothing connecting. In my mind 23-24 had all the right things going for it but the 500mb atmospheric pattern was flat out wonky given the upper atmospheric pattern taking shape.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge".
  7. Benjamn3
    Fire that damn bus up.
  8. GaWx
    Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6: 2025 Dec 0.08 2026 Jan 0.07 Feb 0.23 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  9. so_whats_happening
    This is why it is important to get a solid Wave 2 attack on the SPV like we would typically like to see for that winter potential is you need to have the pacific pattern also in conjunction with the developing -NAO. As I see above the talk about the NAO and the lack there of, at least with consistency, is a huge factor in just continuing with the large scale wave 1 patterns attacking the SPV. The 500mb pattern is important in that regard not necessarily the overall warming/+GPH that takes place in the Strat.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb Nov didn't have the warming like 2025
  11. so_whats_happening
    It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times). You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO.
  14. GaWx
    Is “WP” (monthly table) the same as “WPO” (dailies, which we know were negative most of the winter)? That table has positives in each of D, J, and F! Can’t be the same thing! It has +.08, +.07, and +0.23 lmao.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portray all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.
  17. GaWx
    Dec daily WPO: every day was negative and yet that table has +0.08. So, that table is looking at something else. The monthly table url has “wp” in it. Is “wp” the same as “WPO”? 2025 12 01 -163.44 2025 12 02 -139.59 2025 12 03 -103.12 2025 12 04 -115.00 2025 12 05 -37.98 2025 12 06 -31.37 2025 12 07 -48.33 2025 12 08 -84.47 2025 12 09 -106.99 2025 12 10 -130.04 2025 12 11 -192.25 2025 12 12 -316.04 2025 12 13 -347.69 2025 12 14 -304.25 2025 12 15 -259.07 2025 12 16 -205.71 2025 12 17 -191.49 2025 12 18 -190.96 2025 12 19 -200.61 2025 12 20 -183.89 2025 12 21 -135.08 2025 12 22 -127.59 2025 12 23 -138.14 2025 12 24 -130.99 2025 12 25 -113.55 2025 12 26 -107.01 2025 12 27 -95.19 2025 12 28 -71.08 2025 12 29 -82.61 2025 12 30 -127.57 2025 12 31 -123.82 https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  18. GaWx
    Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies comes out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers. link to daily WPO: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually I can see it after going over the maps.. the slight + reading was correct because of further SW
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but I simply didn't recall them...probably because they were useless.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I felt like it did, too, so the monthly numbers are incorrect?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't make sense to me, either...but those are the numbers.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    No way December was +WPO
  24. GaWx
    According to the average of the daily WPOs at the link below, it certainly did average a -WPO this winter: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data
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