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this post made me laugh so hard

No... pure powder is the only thing for me.. I do care... I would care less.. but still care

Pats in the AFC championship with a snowstorm to track with big potential.. we're back

Growing up in Silver Spring, sleet was usually the price to be paid for a juiced up EC storm. Less worried about that scenario in Frederick (unless this system cuts like Feb 94) and looks like everyone closer to the fall line gets an overrunning thump anyway. We’re in the Euro’s money range. Today’s runs will be important.

WTF? Are you trying to make it sleet!?

FWIW FV3 run seems to hang the Baja low back a tad thru hr30, bit more separation from the NS… yes this is a very premature read!

That would not be good, if we get mostly freezing rain! Actually this would be worst case scenario.

14 / 3 off a low of 1 here. A brief warmup Thu / Fri ahead of the next arctic airmass (coldest of the season) arriving in phases first Sat with the much tracked storm Sun - Tue then reinforcing arctic air next week 1/28 - 1/30. Cold into the end of the month, moderation towards the 2/2 period. Overall cold otherwise strongest cold over the next 10 days with 1 or 2 potential storms to dump some snow in between.

For sure on the phase. And I agree. If it phases....the hp strength is minimal in terms of importance. However, how they phase will be impacted greatly by how much that hp presses. A stronger hp will suppress that system. Check out Steve's comments in the SE mountain thread. He does a better job of explaining it. I lean Euro, because it generally is a better model....and the gfs has been bad since Thanksgiving. I don't think hurricane hunter data went in last night. It looks like some data will be added today and tomorrow. We may see a big jump (could be good...could be bad)once that data is inputed.

I read where they are a little skeptical of this north trend and are waiting to see if models trend south today

Not sure what this means?

Don't get nervous. We're still days away.

Indeed! You all have got your work cut out and I’ll be sending positive thoughts to ya I still expect to see swings until at least tomorrow afternoon and the teeeeeniest adjustment will have major impacts down the line. Buckle up everyone

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

I've already had 3 people send me this asking if it's real. I told them TWC app forecast of 8-12 is more realistic and to never trust apple weather

Going to put my heat mats out today. Hopefully won't jinx things...

Wind Gusts towards the end of the precip

I feel like the recon data ingest is the last point where this can fail. If we get good modeling on the energy coming on shore and we're still good, then it's all systems go. I feel like the solutions where we flip to sleet in the east/southeast are probably right based upon past storms. I'd say the majority of major storms since I moved to the area in 2011 have been that way. If that doesn't happen we're probably ending up with less overall QPF as we end up with a weaker coastal or none at all. So it's like 10-14 inches or 14-20 inches plus sleet. I'll take the sleet any day. It's a good chance to go out and shovel since it doesn't accumulate fast and you can put salt down to melt it easily.

I'll admit you lost me as you've given us quite a bit to digest there. Gonna need a minute.

0.75” in Naperville. Was thinking 0.5” but the tick north on 06z convinced me otherwise. I anticipate a healthy dose of virga.

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

CAPE storm attempt #2? I'm here for you buddy lol. LFG!

For reference, the frequency of measurable snow events and the highest daily snowfall. The January 24-26 period is highlighted in red to reflect the coming storm.

Spot on GMan! The excitement that builds up days before the expected event is so much fun to discuss. Then we all get hit with that sour bug 3 days before each event. What happened overnight seems pretty typical for 76-84 hours out in the SE. Let's stay calm and see what transpires through tonight. GSP NWS are the best in the business. We are fortunate to have them. And they are responsible for some of the most difficult forecasting in the country. Since they are forecasting from the highest elevations to the Laurens/Greenwood area.

Been a good winter, why not!