All Activity

It’s been trending colder

I said below 30

28.4° -SN Very light coating

Yes, this was weird. I'm beginning my 4th winter in Garrett County and I've found that the Davis 3SE observer consistently gets 50% more snow than I do. I get 5...he gets 7-8, I get 4, he gets 6 and so forth. For me to get under 3 and he reports 14 is highly unusual. I drove there this morning and as I gained altitude on Rte 90, it was like someone turned on a switch by the time I got to Tucker County. Davis is generally the winner in my area but to jackpot like this (hell, a day and a half ago, Tucker County didn't even have a WWA) made me scratch my head - and pout.

Nice follow up stat: today on 11-11 we tied for our 11th earliest snowfall. I'd play that number. Unless you want to be a downer and bump it up to 9th because of the ties.

I did a little data mining of my snowfall records. Over the past 30 winters (31 if you count through today), our average date of first snowfall (measurable or otherwise) is November 17. Our average date of the last snowfall is March 31. I've got a little PTSD from rehashing 2011-12 and a couple of others. Here are the details (assuming it pastes legibly): Winter First Snowfall Amount First Measurable Amount Last Snowfall Amount Last Measurable Amount 1995-1996 11/29/1995 4.0 11/29/1995 4.0 4/10/1996 7.0 4/10/1996 7.0 1996-1997 11/11/1996 T 11/28/1996 0.1 4/19/1997 T 4/9/1997 0.5 1997-1998 11/13/1997 T 12/10/1997 0.5 4/10/1998 T 3/22/1998 1.6 1998-1999 12/23/1998 0.7 12/23/1998 0.7 4/11/1999 T 3/15/1999 7.1 1999-2000 11/29/1999 T 12/22/1999 0.1 4/11/2000 T 4/9/2000 0.9 2000-2001 10/29/2000 T 12/8/2000 0.4 4/18/2001 T 3/26/2001 2.0 2001-2002 12/17/2001 T 1/7/2002 2.8 4/6/2002 T 3/18/2002 0.2 2002-2003 11/2/2002 T 11/27/2002 1.2 4/8/2003 T 4/7/2003 6.2 2003-2004 11/13/2003 T 12/5/2003 7.5 3/19/2004 3.6 3/19/2004 3.6 2004-2005 11/13/2004 0.2 11/13/2004 0.2 3/24/2005 1.6 3/24/2005 1.6 2005-2006 11/23/2005 T 11/24/2005 1.0 4/8/2006 T 3/2/2006 4.0 2006-2007 11/22/2006 T 1/19/2007 0.6 4/6/2007 T 3/16/2007 4.8 2007-2008 12/2/2007 0.9 12/2/2007 0.9 3/1/2008 0.6 3/1/2008 0.6 2008-2009 11/18/2008 T 12/6/2008 0.7 4/8/2009 T 3/2/2009 8.9 2009-2010 12/5/2009 T 12/9/2009 1.2 3/4/2010 0.2 3/4/2010 0.2 2010-2011 11/8/2010 T 12/13/2010 0.3 4/1/2011 T 3/24/2011 2.0 2011-2012 10/29/2011 T 1/21/2012 4.0 2/12/2012 0.1 2/12/2012 0.1 2012-2013 11/7/2012 2.0 11/7/2012 2.0 3/25/2013 T 3/21/2013 0.5 2013-2014 11/12/2013 0.3 11/12/2013 0.3 4/16/2014 0.2 4/16/2014 0.2 2014-2015 11/26/2014 T 12/8/2014 0.1 3/30/2015 T 3/29/2015 0.2 2015-2016 10/18/2015 T 12/29/2015 0.1 4/9/2016 T 3/3/2016 0.3 2016-2017 10/27/2016 T 11/21/2016 0.6 3/18/2017 T 3/14/2016 4.5 2017-2018 11/20/2017 T 12/9/2017 3.7 4/2/2018 6.1 4/2/2018 6.1 2018-2019 11/15/2018 4.5 11/15/2018 4.5 4/5/2019 T 3/4/2019 3.0 2019-2020 11/8/2019 T 12/1/2019 0.2 5/9/2020 T 1/18/2020 3.0 2020-2021 10/30/2020 T 12/16/2020 5.0 4/16/2021 T 2/20/2021 0.5 2021-2022 11/26/2021 T 12/24/2021 0.4 3/27/2022 T 2/13/2022 0.1 2022-2023 12/11/2022 T 12/12/2022 0.6 3/14/2023 2.0 3/14/2023 2.0 2023-2024 11/28/2023 T 1/6/2024 0.2 3/10/2024 T 2/17/2024 3.0 2024-2025 11/22/2024 T 12/5/2024 1.0 2/20/2025 0.2 2/20/2025 0.2 2025-2026 11/11/2025 T

What's crazy is just like last fall, we have been mostly +PNA since mid-Oct.And really since mid-Sept most +PNA. If that holds most of winter it would be unusual.

It’s well north

Or who said 30 below?

Not really that crazy, the same thing happened in Feb 2018.

Indeed, there’s a much greater % of the conus with BN vs AN in weeks 1-2 of Dec.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

Oh

What a way to start the season!

2

Same. Goodbye snow, hello sun.

huh? The temp was 29. That’s below 30. Who said -30?

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

Even out to the end of the EPS run it’s still holding the same look getting closer to the start of December. Models have come in much stronger with the blocking forecast over the last week. But we need to get that trough out of the West in December to have a shot at going over 4” which is required for better snowfall prospects the rest of the winter during La Ninas. It’s still early so we have time to see how things evolve once into December.

My high was 44°. Impressive for the inner suburbs of Baltimore in mid November.

my high today was 42. impressive.

It doesn't take effect right away. You know this. It is a seesaw pattern as of now, with long range showing cooler once again after the return to more normal temps for a few days. Sundog said this earlier.

Received 0.3 inches here. Nice start to the season.

This was from early this morning at sunrise. I posted it 8 hours ago on page 1. It was pretty treacherous out there this morning in parts of the area. The sticking snow surprised many.

Where are we at? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Meh Exciting