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there was some deal on the ambient 5000 a couple years back for Christmas, so I upgraded to that one. It's solid.

She’s looking to feast on LI as the highs split, you can tell by the isobar placement.

They always do this with storms

we were going to go to NYC this weekend - but not anymore lol

How can they live with themselves?

And yet the news stations have the most rainfall in SNE.

As someone as experienced as you are, I'm sure you are acutely aware that even the best weather models disagree with one another over time, strength and precise location of a storm. No model will give you the exact LAT/LONG for a landfalling Nor'East, hurricane, or even a Nor'Easter in January. The idea that this storm is going to impact New England the most is dead. Long Island/NYC points south are going to be the highest impacted from this storm. The NWS is dropping the ball on this completely.

Seen someone on Facebook post about this lol

Naked Swirl would be a decent band name

12z EURO on board with central NJ landfall by Saturday evening/Sunday morning.

50 miles makes a big difference especially for my area in north central NJ

As wolves whimper before being frozen at -150 degrees and Dennis Quaid looks for his sons.

You're talking about timing. All models take this into central NJ at some point. Just don't agree on the timing. The track is pretty consistent within 50 miles, however.

I posted 3 different 12Z models 2 posts above to prove my point - now its your turn to prove yours

True this. Coming in along CNJ coast or a little south will maximize the tides, wind and rainfall totals over most of this sub forum. If it slides westward say along the south shore of the island than somewhat lesser impacts. Watch trends next 12-18 hours for better clarity. This depiction with that pressure would be worst case scenario from CNJ coast up into NYC, LI and the sound.

Rain looks more and more likely Sunday. I have tickets for Jason Isbell on the river and am having some doubts that show happens.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

you can see the wall of rain spinning just offshore, though..looks almost tropical. Tomorrow is definitely gonna be nasty out.

Great Data. I anecdotally recall 40s in September being much more common than it is now.

The WWS in Milton is delish! Thread related, the wind is picking up here. Still really nice out though.

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.