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QPF for me from the NWS for the Wed-Sat period was cut in half over the last 24 hours, right on schedule. Call me a weenie but we've seen this all many times over the last 9 months.

February 12-15 more likely tbh. Won’t say no to double dipping though!

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.35 so far, looks like more moving in

The further E AOI is now Invest 92L. UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TSNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 301200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 300000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 360000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 341200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 350000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Was in on a huddle with their WCM during the storms. The justification for the mass tor warnings was based on the reports of 95 MPH gusts upstream, equaling EF-1 speeds.

Sitting on the porch it's pretty damn comfortable out

Ironically a multi year drought whose effects were enhanced by poor land management …. also remains, ‘Responsibility Ours’. As always …..

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

And finally returned around 10:30 this morning. Out 18.5 hours. Had some rain early this morning, more around 11 am then more with thunder started around 1:30 pm and still sprinkling. To the west they've had a MUCH more active day.

Nasty line coming together now

A DP of 82 at 4pm is diabolical

It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended 11 Aug 2026 1016.05 1013.30 6.86 -21.05 -22.10 10 Aug 2026 1014.90 1012.95 2.00 -22.57 -22.32 I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird.

Thanks. The 1871 event from the reports was likely similar to Iniki in intensity. The thing that made the 1871 event stand out was its angle of approach. Iwa and Iniki both were picked up by a strong trough to the W and accelerated N to the islands. The 1871 event was just moving within the tropical easterlies. In the cntrl Pacific, the way the mean pattern/flow is in the summer and fall makes conditions rather hostile (wind shear) within about 500 mi E of the islands. So any EPAC system that is intense and tracks W right towards HI weakens significantly to below HU strength by the time it gets to the area. So whatever pattern was in place over the cntrl Pacific in Aug 1871 must have been highly anomalous for such a strong HU to make landfall from the E.

Pretty much what they said, right? He'll do well and then have a blow-up game. I'll take it with the starters we have on IL.

getting crushed at the house with hail and wind. First hail of the year

Confirmed tornado SW of Champaign IL.

I had a storm "break containment" and move into my neighborhood. Yes, I know I'm using winter cliches in August, but it was exciting.

I'm glad you got great LTG. Location, location, location for LTG! And talk about localized. One person gets several very close CGs and ear-splitting thunder, and they are like. "WOW, what storm!" And another a few miles away just gets some mdt booms. Such can change a perception of a storm so easily! The #1 thing I look for always is lots of LTG at my location, esp, close strikes and the really odd acoustics you can get sometimes. Several years ago here, for the first time I had ever witnessed, I actually heard the ZZZTTT!!! when a strike hit about 200 ft away, It was not the typical electric click/pops, more a "frying" noise, probably from arcing from streamers.

Sirens going off