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The 12z OP was an amplified outlier to it's ensemble to some degree, so it makes sense that the op and mean split the difference and became aligned at 18z

Just got home. Using wifi to get on the internet. I was a victim of the Verizon outage today. Temp down to 38 with a mix but mostly rain.

Beautifully stated and true.

Made it to 56 today likely wont see that or beat that again until Feb.

I don't know myself. I know some on here go to other weather discussions, I find this place to be more than enough. Maybe someone has seen him an another spot?

Almost a 2" mean here on GEFS. Come on Euro throw us a bone.

One in the same lol!

who are you?

What I would do for a .75-1” QPF bomb one of these days like we used to get even if some was wasted on mix or low ratios. All these NS systems you’re fighting for two tenths of an inch of QPF for victory, though ratios typically are better

If I get 6-12 I’ll snow low in flip flops and tank top. Book it

see what happens when the PNA goes positive see what happens when chuck goes positive

Not here it wasn’t…didn’t break 45 degrees here. Lousy day..damp and raw with clouds and sprinkles/wet.

Not sure who has been following closely for the last year and a half at least, but the euro is back to just absolutely demolishing these other models. can be overly optimistic about snow lol, but I just can't get even a little bit excited until the European model shows snow.

That analysis is definitely spot on, but I will cough and it seems like we have these conversation sheets time we’re looking for positive trends, or now cast bust. The models tend to do a good job accounting for a lot of these things, maybe not at this range but especially closer in to game time…

yep, zzzzzz

Hello Rob…. Not sure if you know but I’ve wondered what happened to Will Rutgers. I found his posts, at times, enjoyably entertaining. I figure asking you will negate starting another to do…. As always ….

It would be getting into the city that would be the problem, especially via express bus on poorly treated roads. I'd be adding an additional hour to my trip in travel time.

Imo don’t fret and split hairs on QPF quite yet. Overrunning setups tend to trend wetter down to zero hour.

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track.

Fwiw, the GEFs has bodily moved west, by several grid points actually. Even has a fair number of middling depth members straddling the BM. 12z left, 18 right Probably should also add... sense of this is a middle ranged cyclone ... a correcting west track has possibility, but the sub 980 idea of the GFS probably doesn't pass the middle range amplitude dimming aspect.

give me this one please

Where and how the ridge and blocking sets up for Sunday is everything ladies and gents What we want it to look like What we don't want it to look like