All Activity

September 28 1983: Late summer-like temperatures arrive in Minnesota with 91 degrees at Montevideo and 90 degrees at Elbow Lake. 1895: A 'furious wind' at Pleasant Mound in Blue Earth County blows down grain stacks and corn shocks. For Monday, September 28, 2026 1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum) 1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston. 1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel) 1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 28 Mon National Drink Beer Day 28 Mon National Family Day 28 Mon National Neighbor Day 28 Mon National Sons Day 28 Mon World Rabies Day 28 Mon Ask a Stupid Question Day 28 Mon International Day for Universal Access to Information 28 Mon International Poke Day 28 Mon International Right To Know Day 28 Mon National North Carolina Day 28 Mon National Self Awareness Day 28 Mon National Strawberry Cream Pie Day 28 Mon Fish Tank Floorshow Night

The stratospheric interactions are also related to the actual tropical forcing in addition to the state of the QBO. During the later portion of the winter in 1983, it was more of a full-basin SST configuration compared to 1997-1998. All the guidance has a warm pool extending up along the West Coast of Mexico. This along with the record warmth in 1-2 and 3 lead to the forecast for split forcing leading to a strong eastward lean. During many recent seasons warm pools off the equator had had areas of forcing west of Mexico and to the east of Hawaii.

My theory on why 1997 occurred where it did in the solar cycle is that it was Earth's response to the early acceleration of CC.

Omg about the funniest thing ever of this storm.

I think this season will feature late blocking via wave reflection rather than a SSW given the combination of descending solar and W QBO, but the strong signal among guidance (likely overstated) in conjunction with the strong match to 1983 buttresses this postulation....all of this in conjunction with the locale of the warm pool in the central Pacific renders any westward propagation of ENSO merely a constructive interference bonus of sorts, but not a requisite development.

Raining good here. Keep it coming.

Expounding on this point....December 1997 in one of the most intense, east-based El Nino events in recorded history, yet had a decent -NAO. Why? Take a look at where 1997 occurs in the solar cycle (left side of chart) in conjunction with a strong easterly QBO....your overreliance on ENSO as a modulator of the NAO is too reductive here, Chris. Now check where 2026 falls... And every other super-El Nino.... Why is blocking favored GENERALLY earlier during E QBO and later during W QBO? Holton-Tans relationship. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Since winter 2026-2027 will occur in the descending phase between the max of solar cycle 25 and the min that will occur early next decade, each of these previous two scenarios warrant consideration with a preference for the former, solar min/W QBO data set given the geomagnetic energy is will likely be peaking during break winter 2026-2027, thus any SSW will likely be delayed until latter February, or more likely a final waring in March. This does NOT necessarily preclude the incidence of minor warming and/or tropospheric wave breaking earlier, though. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO : The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season. The final warming is of course the exception to this rule, while it is usually more relevant for spring, it can and does sometimes occur early enough to have an impact for the major population centers in terms of late season cold and/or snowfall. Below are a couple of annotations to aide in the simplification and visualization of these relationships.

80's for one day in early October isn't earth shattering..overall a cool pattern starting next weekend.

And you thought you have got ripped off in Meuthen? How about the 3 day total so far for Rockport MA? Also, Billerica! As @CoastalWx would say GWDLT! And would be saying if Weymouth was not near 7" "deeply occluded low banded precip SUXS!"

70s for you though.. womp womp

5.01” here. Crazy gradient

Just hit 8” exactly, storm total

I wonder if I will ever get a travel baseball game in this fall... As of right now, it looks like Sunday is another washout.

3.14 pretty much exactly as Euro had

off to Hampton beach to see high tide come in.. I know there wont be much flooding but maybe walk the beach after and find something neat..

Were going downhill fast in the temperature department.

Low of 59 and a two-day rainfall total of .76”. Mondays stink.

He had some help

Did it bring any beer from Dogfish Head?

1992 went inland over the delmarva which is why the first part of the storm was rain. This one stayed east of us keeping the winds NE to NNE which would have likely been snow (barring a 1998 type el Nino warm environment).

RONI is a relative metric to SST outside the actual ENSO regions. But the BOM RONI for Nino 1 and 2 are higher close to the actual ONI readings. So this is why we maintain the ONI alongside the RONI. Plus the agencies in South America use both since the record streak of temperatures there are related to the actual ONI readings. Remember Nino 1+2 has been one of the few ocean regions of the planet which didn’t warm prior to the 2023-2024 super El Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 23SEP2026 25.4 4.7 28.8 3.9 29.7 3.1 29.8 1.1

TWC is showing LGA at 84 on Friday. Meanwhile, NWS and AW top out in the upper 70s for LGA on Friday. Who's going to be right here?

this euro sounding for friday in central nj isn't mixed out enough. these people never learn