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Lol. JK.

That’s where we’re at with tonight lol. HRRR, NAMs, ol RUFUS, and RAP still maintain snow above 2500 feet and for TRI and points NE. @Jed33sadly both you and I are borderline. @Carvers Gap looks like around midnight for me and after 3 am for yall. Look up close at the HRRR 3km on weatherbell. It looks like it has the Eastman bubble over Long Island lol.

Energy coming down from sw canada at 108, stronger than previous runs. Too early to tell

Listen, I started to bus. I'll go down in flames. Trust me. It'll be quick.

Sunday night gone ?

6 to 7z - or 1-2 AM EST for northeast TN, from the looks of it.

There could always be surprises, but precip amounts are very light...and has been on modeling for several days in E TN. I have zero knowledge of Signal Mountain w/ these types of setups. I looks to me that south of I40, this is rain...but at elevation I just don't know. The MRX graphic looks about right to me.

i'd focus on rap and hrrr now

Ahem.

18z GFS a bit of a step back, depending on location. A little worse for me, but still close to 2 inches, but better for S DE, damn near 4". I might consider a trip to Rehoboth since I'm off for MLK day.

This BS event is your only hope now.

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80.

yep well east for the 2nd batch

We're on the Harry Potter Knight Bus...ahhhhhhhh!

The recon data coming in, i still remember the bad data “claim” 48 hours out from Boxing Day, then 0z was just as west, and watches came out by 3am lol

Gfs just folded

odd but maybe it sees a heavier patch of snow-but yeah I'm skeptical given temps

The HRRR and 18z 3k NAM are all snow for NE TN, albeit very light amounts. The 18z RGEM is rain. When is onset for this?

I’ll do it for the next 20 min then I have to pass on the baton. Nothing noteworthy up to Jan 20 yet.

10 to 1 so fwiw

Welcome to all the posters that are now joining the weekend storm thread

My skies are clear for sure. It hasn't been warm today at all. When I went running this morning, it was 12 degrees I think...one of the top 5 coldest running mornings(this winter) for me. Yesterday was by far the worst. I made the mistake of running down on the river(you know where it is...NI).

Tomorrow looks like dogshit for anyone east of FIT-DXR line.

Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested.

Look at how low the dew points are too. That has to be good for at least onset sleet until the dewpoint rises above freezing. I don’t know I’m grasping at straws here but seen that happen many times.