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GFS caved AWT

True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now.

I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094534882815082520?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Memorial Day?

It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.

Someone hand me a tissue....

91 for the high.

About a nickel from shower that rolled thru between 4 and 5 pm. Made it humid/muggy x 1000 out there.

I have a bunch of work stuff scheduled, but if this is the real deal I might just try a quick turnaround flight. Radar definitely looks increasingly robust and seeing this kind of organization at this time of the day is intriguing.

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

So calling it a state record is kind of premature.

Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.

0.30 past 24 hours... 1.90 for the month now....

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

Meteorological Fall starts in 6 hours!!! We made it!! woooooo hooooo!!!!

great weekend coming up! I'll be working Sat and Sun but should be out by early afternoon both days to enjoy it.. KEY MESSAGE 3...Improving weather Friday and into the holiday weekend. Other than a spot diurnal shower each day, dry weather prevails with a mix of clouds and sun. Cooler than normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, along with onshore breezes. Definitely a sign of fall approaching, with robust northern stream Friday yielding a baroclinic 998 mb maritime low late Fri/Sat. This will yield a cool, brisk NE flow into the SNE over the weekend. Highs likely remaining in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. It will feel even cooler over southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands, with northeast winds 15-25 mph. Cool cyclonic flow aloft will yield diurnal clouds each day and possibly a spot shower. Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Possibly warmer and less wind for Memorial Day Monday, as high amplitude trough moves offshore and 1025 mb high settles over SNE.

Cansips for DJF:

Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too

The reality split the difference: sprinkles, not enough to need the umbrella, but just enough to keep me from reading while walking.

Rockies ridge has been the pattern for a while.. +6F anomalies for almost a year is impressive!

Hopefully!

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.4