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Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter"

I’d be shocked if we went through a large chunk of Feb with an El Niño N PAC pattern but stranger things have happened. My guess is we revert back to RNA/-EPO pattern as we go into February. That can still be ok but you risk SE ridge getting too stout which happens frequently in Niña Februarys.

The other thing too is there is a ton of money in AI...lots of money. When it comes to technology, it's so easy to sucker people in...I mean look how so many people go bonkers when the new iPhone comes out or some new high tech gadget. But if you're in the development of AI...you can easily sucker people in and make a boat load of money.

Congrats, you were due this year!

Almost as impressive is the next day max of 19F on that MOS lol. A nice 70 degree rise.

I recall he graded 09-10 winter as a B.

Seems like a good shot at BN January. Impressive run of predominantly BN temps in our area going back to August. Honestly can’t recall when the last similar period was. Of course this period wasn’t BN relative to 30-40 years ago… Anyway, would suck to have BN December and January and come out of it with low single digit snowfall. But can’t say the analogs for this year didn’t have cold/dry potential.

Wouldn't mind seeing that moving into February. You want to talk about the prospects for a big February, there is the look right there. Ultimately, I'd like to see that ridge axis shifted east a bit and tilted a bit more directly poleward...but this is an ens mean so that detail is a bit minute but something to watch for when we get into OP range

All these years gone by, still one of the greatest pictures taken on the forum

I know the energy sector was all abuzz late last year about how the Euro AI ensembles our performed the EPS. I heard a few Mets talking about that. I haven’t compared them recently though. Interesting way to evaluate if it can hang with the big boys. Definitely plenty of data now to collect and verify how they have been performing vs other guidance.

Idk, the Brick storm last year lost 13 inches of snow that went to New Orleans after the thread was created

-20

That's depressing!

Is this a No Kings protest? The King Euro is back!

Personally as an industry I'm not pleased with the rollout of this new AI technology. This needs to have a prioritized expose as to how this stuff works. What the expectations are. It's all very difficult to find, and find that to be divisive. It's quite obvious why. There is a sense of competition, ask later -ism that is going on, where different sub-sectors are afraid of losing a competitive edge, so they are rushing out these AI products that are probably based on a rudimentary model that can be "tweaked" - but in the meantime, no one gets to know that they don't know what what they were doing, nor how to do it very well. That part is kept very hidden. It's just that everyone has AI this that and other ...so organizational ineptitude can remain lost in the noise of all this AI.

Funny enough, this prayer was answered... I might have to start going to church again.

I thought you were the good luck guy?

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

SREF

Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge.

does it show below 0 for central park?

Yeah, been thinking the same thing. You'd think more should get pulled along the Front.

It's complicated in a comparatively simplistic way

Excellent post. Understanding models (strengthens and weaknesses) is vital to forecasting success. Ultimately, forecasting is much more than just looking at the output of a model or comparing a few products. A forecaster should always be asking themselves, "does this output makes sense given the pattern"...obviously when dealing with a time range beyond 3-4-5 days there is always, always going to be a degree of uncertainty, however, asking yourself that question and working through the details to answer that question can provide enough of a basis for a forecaster to determine with confidence, the likelihood of a scenario occurring. I'm with you, the ceiling for AI should be that of current NWP and I think it should be thought of as AI being a compliment to current NWP. For example, if AI can do a better job at assessing the current state (initialization) and more quickly, integrate this into NWP. I believe this has always been done (again, a reason Euro was superior for a while) but with the advancement in technology this could vastly improve NWP. For your response to Scott, that is a very underrated understanding regarding re-analysis datasets. I think we take them at too much of a face value but need to understand there are limitations with them as well. For example, if you look at the ERSSTv6 and compare it to v5 and previous versions, you can see there are some large discrepancies in various areas of the globe, particularly earlier days when much of the re-analysis outside of ship routes was created via extrapolation methods.

Exactly how I feel honestly. It’s cool for a day. I guess I don’t want it to be 70 right after but nothing cures the post-storm sadness like something lined up after.