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Coasts or iinland too?

Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct.

Tries to make an appearance later this week and next weekend on the models.

I said keep an eye on it in subsequent posts.

.51” overnight Looks like Harrisburg area is going to get hit hard.

Interesting. Never thought about the rate.

Yeah, near record 588 dm block north of the Great Lakes is very impressive for late September.

The ensembles see something similiar although farther offshore and more of a stall then a hook until finally getting pushed east. One thing that is consistent is development of closed system in the region, sticking with the ensembles for now for guidance this far out. Enjoy the rainy sunday, you have a license to sit on the couch all day.

Now gfs hooks left with the coastal storm.

Gfs on board

Euro , Euro AI and now the GFS has storm that hooks into the coast.

Especially if the surface low gets captured by the upper low and gets pulled in from the east by later in the week. Several models have been showing these cyclonic loop scenarios. Still early for details like that but the blocking to the north and closed low are very strong for this time of year. So there is at least some potential.

.38" in the bucket so far...

It got a mention in the recent CPC discussion. Like we have been discussing, could result in weaker low pressure centers with this El Niño. Would fit the recent pattern of overpowering ridges with smaller areas of low pressure. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html There are two factors that make the current situation unique. The first factor is the presence of a fairly strong, negatively phased Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with the August PDO index value of -1.11 . The "Big Three" historical El Niño's since 1950 include the warm events of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, all of which occurred when the PDO phase was positive, leading to constructive interference. This time, however, the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas. The second factor involves the large region of warmer-than-normal SSTs that is typically present in the Gulf of Alaska during strong El Niños. The current situation shows a significant westward shift in these warmer SSTs, which may allow for slightly cooler water to influence portions of the U.S. West coast. In addition, even with the possibility of one or more cold air outbreaks across the northwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states, it is unlikely that this will have much of an impact on the average temperature for a 90-day season.

Floodsville

Rain classic

Nam doesn't have alot of rain today.

Fay is born, now expected to peak at 50 kts. Still think there’s an outside chance this storm can approach hurricane intensity. Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about 40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about 100-150 n mi across. The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic support. Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Euro AI not backing down

Considering the blowtorch in the Pacific that isn't that bad tbh... Thought it would be worse Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk