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Says the wind chill is 9°. I have worked in single digits this winter but this feels colder. Strangely refreshing.

I’d sell my house in a heartbeat if the current pattern was the norm around here. Trash.

Been following it this morning. Hopefully it doesn’t affect any of the cabins.

NAO has been negative now for a while, but looking to head up. The modeling may look dry in the weeks ahead if we do not get any STJ activity. Also, have to see the trends with Western ridging, as hopefully it does not get broken down or retrograde.

Lol

Just measured a new 1.25in brings me right up to 5 inches so far. Since it was over 2 days does that count... . Here I was hoping I'd get 5 inches all week with the clipper included and could possibly double that. Nice to see other areas around the city are starting to get some squalls

Looking more and more like a week-ish of suffering through dry and significant cold to a warm up and cutters. Then we evaluate if the warmup is an interlude or a new pattern…

The models giveth the models taketh

Yep the drought is becoming a big issue with wildfires in WNC.

Almost 24 hours of winds gusting over 30 mph. Peak gust was 42 mph last night. Currently 31F and... Windy. Chill is 21F.

Fun story, before I read Holston's posts on this...my family just called it the Twilight Zone. That area always has the worst weather - thunderstorms (especially out of the northwest), snow showers, wind, etc. I have traveled that section of road for forty years. Same deal for that long. Again, Alpine, Wy, has a very similar deal as does an area just north of Jackson(snow hole area). I think that place is Moran.

Sun is peeking out here too lol. Lots of blue in the sky

Meanwhile about 2 miles to the east it's sunny. Crazy weather.

Ha... it could show progress, actually. Like even the populace is getting their minds around the notion that GW is as much about huge variance ( to wit, 'cold' is part of that), as it is the actual warming itself. There's a compendium of reasons you and I know that the general population doesn't really have to - just that they no the variances are bigger. That all said... I don't think it represents progress in this case. LOL Maybe what it represents is when this particular etho-chamber social media nears apoplexy over the fact that it doesn't seem to matter what index says this, or pattern says that... or Met extols the virtues of their own brilliance ... blah blah. 'Where's the fucking 7 contoured hornet parked on near Block Island!!' One raging a battle against a 1040 mb high pressure over Moose Turd Ontario wouldn't hurt. haha. Have it followed by a trough that offers another toke off the blue-light special pipe after.... all that. So frustrated that we're willing to through GW into the reasons.

sure. Buts it’s crap odds at this stage. Low end advisory or a big cutter if it phases. It has the hallmarks of another big cutter.

For an industrial plant to cause this, it would take something like a massive settlement pond from a paper plant to cause the life and the moisture - like lake effect. There is nothing to the northwest of Gray that fits that bill - not even a lake. That little snow line is really similar to the gap in the mountains west of Knoxville which allows Knoxville to get more snow...not quite the same setup, but similar. FWIW...BAE and Eastman are due north....and they would actually deter dendrite formation - you can trust me on that one! Hahah. Those plants affect weather, but I have never seen those plants add snow to anyone's back yard. Lots There is a notch in Bays Mountain near Laurel Run park. There is another notch near Baileyton. Wind cuts through those places and also to the east where the mountain range terminates at the radio towers. Those wind flows converge back near Gray when NW winds run perpendicular to Bays. I think the orographic lift between the three area then combines to create convergence in the lee of Bays. Think of a sports car cutting through air in a wind tunnel. Air goes around each side and then over the top. It converges again behind the car. I think that is what happens. That band has been there a long time. @Holston_River_Rambler, I agree. a small glass manufacturer won't cause that. That industrial park over there is pretty much defunct. I don't even really count that as an industrial plant - very small w/ maybe one stack. If that line of thinking was used for Eastman, there should be a HUGE snow belt downwind from it. Hahah. It is 100% orographic life along w/ those gaps in the mountain. Your last graphic there is right on the money w/ ONP. There is another one of these in Alpine, Wy. Where there is a break in the mountain, these little bands set up. I used to live on Boone Lake and would drive to Kingsport when younger(every morning). I drove through that band so many times. Again, you all have done a great job with this. That area is just one of strong convergence. Even during summer thunderstorms...same. Always a lot of convergence there.

A few flakes in Canton. Looks like a thin stream of flurries is pointed at us.

1.4” since last night

Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.

Its a week away. The models have been trash in the mid to long range.

Well said Bret. I think these debates are helpful to let us know who calls it "Gulf of America" and who doesn't

I can dismiss whatever data and science you throw at me because that’s my right. Believe what you want to believe and I will do the same. Viva la America…

Warm. That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked.

Blame the pacific. We need to go back to the Miller As and even Miller B storms.

To be fair, I think a lot of people love to pull a one month cold sample and go “ see see see!!!! It’s cold” when the other 11 months in the year have generally set warm anomalies. Somehow, sprinkling in a few below normal months cancels out the overarching warmth trend. Not to turn this into a climate change debate, but that’s the stuff that’s going on. Ignore the wholesale change in favor of cherry picked cold anomalies