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All right guys. Here's my snow shower video running up to New York on Tuesday. Nothing crazy as far as winter weather goes, but the first snowfall of the season usually causes problems on the freeways...

The EPS and long-range ECMWF continue to suggest that an EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- pattern will develop to open December. Such a pattern typically favors a trough's being anchored in the West and extending mainly across Canada. Although some cold could periodically push into the eastern U.S., the coldest anomalies would stay in the west (both in Canada and the U.S.). December 1-10, 1980-2024: Composite 500 mb Anomalies: Composite Temperature Anomalies: December 1-8, 2025 ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: 500 mb Anomalies: Temperature anomalies:

Yup. The warm air advection is no joke. Might see legit fire weather risk Sunday and Monday.

Impressive. 22.8°F of fakeness this AM, just 3mi from the ocean.

Maybe we will see some Palms naturally spread as the Bridgeport one put out some seeds this year..

This was Eek’s in Winni

Went to bed around midnight in low 40's, woke at 6 am to 55 degrees! Currently cloudy skies and 55.3/39.8 at 7:45 am.

Most references rate the species as hardy to USDA hardiness zone 8b. A small number of specimens are cultivated beyond the typical regions sabal is known to be cultivated in, including parts of Tennessee, northern Virginia, and along the middle Atlantic coast from Maryland to coastal New Jersey and coastal Connecticut. A long term specimen grows in favorable microclimate (zone 7a/b) at the University of Bridgeport CT since 2009.

It was Eek in Laconia until he got tired of winterizing it.

There could easily be some error at this range in the exact positioning/orientation of the long wave features. I wouldn't call it a can kick but given the currently advertised position of the Pac trough and the downstream ridge over AK towards D15, its not hard to imagine a western US trough for a time at the beginning of Dec.

Wow, I would have guessed maybe Maryland was furthest North for a palm. The one you posted does have the advantage of being right up against a building.

Only down to 30.4° this morning. Kinda crazy that it’s mid Novie and I haven’t been below 25.9° yet. 25 more days until the sunsets start getting later.

"cheap labor" is an outdated stereotype. The factories producing solar/battery/ev are highly automated. China is kicking our butt in a wide range of advanced technologies. https://itif.org/publications/2025/09/23/how-china-is-outperforming-the-united-states-in-critical-technologies/

Coldest morning this season here, dipped into the high 20s

If we can get the cold to cooperate next month, it's hard to see a scenario in which most of the forum doesn't score. Diggin' the high precip signal on the CFS. Shouldn't be any shortage of trackable systems to close out the year.

Everything frozen this AM after the showers last night. 27F.

Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down with steady winter warming. As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows. But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under. Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual. So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward. Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s. Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again. The lowest skill scenario #3 would be a VEI-7 or VEI-8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events. So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2.

Ugh, sorry to hear man.

You don't seem to understand that *the* key ingredient for China's growth - including the growth of their energy industry (both renewables and fossil) is an abundant supply of cheap labor. That is something we simply do not have. It's not an issue of attitude, priorities, or policy - it's an issue of resources.

Down to 24F here in the valley in E CT, coldest of the season! We have had decent cold, but not much to show for it here other than rain.

Just saw this. Devastating. So glad to hear about the good news for May!

That’s exciting!!! Time to tap your optimistic side-your baby needs it!

What's with the ice? Had to yank the crap out of the car door to get it open.

Speaking of Palms. Bridgeport has the most northern east coast palm tree with this sabal palmetto that's been growing since 2009..