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Ours was high last month-Nat Gas cold and price of NG was higher as well likely due to the market seeing the cold month ahead

If you are looking for a long shot window to try and track in the medium range - GEFS ens have a couple of members pop something next Monday/Tuesday behind the weekend system. Looks kinda interesting on the OP even if nothing is there on the surface. It's been there on and off on a couple random ensemble runs.

I really like the look after about 1/13-1/14. Details TBD but the longwave pattern finally seems more palatable for larger events. Hopefully it stays that way and doesn’t regress.

The biggest issue I’m facing is that my plan of getting more sun by often complaining about the lack of it, isn’t working.

don't worry they will make sure they plow your ice

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

Ok…so how’s it looking past the mid month period? 35 degrees out there currently, and it feels real nice for a change.

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016. Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric. Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill. When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined. Now closer to $550 month on average combined. Somewhat less during the transition seasons. Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

Agreed. I’ve gotten bored the last 2 years. It hurts to have events fizzle or not pan out but there hasn’t even been anything to track in so long

I'm not sure which is worse. Complaining about no snow or complaining about the complainers.

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

Having looked at the GFS...I wouldn't draw that conclusion. ETA - at the end of the run there's cold in Ulaanbaatar. If I remember last year, that means something for us in February or March.

BAM doing some painful backtracking on X this morning. Yikes!

not really...neither give us snow

Those were the days...are we sure this wasn't Mike Brady working for TWC? That perm is solid.

I miss the days when we had an active southern stream and occasional NS shortwave to time a snowstorm instead of the other way around.

Another thing is that historically, February is the snowiest month around here. .

Phys.org is an excellent resource for those of us who aren't actual meteorologists or scientists.

Nice job The 4 Seasons. Solid forecast and also great map of snowfall reports. Matches my hastily put together interpolation. NAM and eventually ECM did well. GFS, GEFS, RDPS, GEPS, and UK did not do well. The NYC area was in the bullseye for several days in the run-up... the NAM signaled over the last 36 hours that the jackpot area would end up northeast of the City, which proved correct. Ensembles were slow to respond and clung too tightly to the operational runs.

The differences between the end of the Gfs and AIGfs runs are beyond laughable.

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

Yup, I thought today might break the streak but nope....back in purgatory.

Not to mention that on those side streets that had cars parked on them there is just no place to put all that snow. Cars were buried for days and if you didn't dig them out quickly you ran the risk of them becoming locked in a glacier...if you did dig them out right away you ran the risk of them getting plowed in. Never lived in the city but worked there for a time and it always amazed me that in the big storms the side streets were clogged for days. If you dare moved your car you might not get a parking space again till the thaw came.

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers at that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting. Here's a good one among many, https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works. They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. "Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

What a start to 2026