All Activity

70 here

3/31-4/1/97

Holy cow, this is amazing! Thank you! This is a tremendous reference and just fun to read as well.

The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet

I finally finished cateloging all winter storms greater than 3" since 2000 till end of 2025 77 storms A bunch of other winter stuff is there too. I think it's a good start https://jns182wx.github.io/winter-weather/ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

So overnight I kept getting push notifications from Carrot weather and The Weather Network that heavy rain was starting soon. Checked that I had the right location set on both as I have many saved locations with push notifications.

Also, the afternoon/early evening observation time common at the cooperative sites in the earlier decades often tacks on an additional day at or above a threshold temperature to warm spells, since the set temperature for the following day would be only a little bit colder than the daily high.

Yea, if you lived there during that storm, it was a hurricane. I dont care what the professionals refer to it as.

There we go ... just busted 13 F in the last 25 minutes here.

Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ This site is fine for temps and precip. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php

Yeah I liked the old format much better-was more in depth-this version is "dumbed down"

Probably historic charts intended as an April's Fool's homeage.

SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15

1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent. Day after day after day ... Nope. There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind. So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights. Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement - I don't wish CC upon the world. But it is unfortunately for the world, real. Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge. We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else! And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count.

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

I'll ask this question in here, forgive me if it's been discussed already. The new forecast discussion changes that the nws implemented a little while ago with the key messages format... anymore else hate it? The forecast covers the next seven days, if nothing really important is going on the discussion could ignore half or more of the period. Also it seems impossible to determine if it's been updated even if the timestamp has changed. It leaves more questions than provides answers .

Happy you're getting your much wanted rain. And it's staying away here.

But Anthony you actually did say winter was over a week ago or more…so this is not true. And what is that?

Thanks, Don. He also said “I may look at March days with maximum temperatures at or above the 90th percentile for better measure.” If he actually does this and posts it, would that be a better approach?

The davis vue and vantage also show the ten minute avg direction ln addition to the current snapshot direction... Always have found this very useful as this filters out the normal fluctuations of the vane.

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Still 45 here ...altho the sun's out. As I predicted ... WPC's razor sharp sfc analyses skill has the warm front retreated safely back N of here despite the fact that 0 home sites and even NWS' own KFIT are all clearly still not in a warm sector ....

A ridiculous low of 65 this morning. No rain at home or at work but a pretty good shower fell in between. Anyone see any snow piles left when you're out and about? Columbia Borough still has a pile about 2-3' deep in a vacant lot along the river. Last week at this time it was at least 5' so I'm not sure it has another week left in it or not. Still impressive considering how long it's been since it's snowed and how warm it's been over the past several weeks.

62 here already