All Activity

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road.

The frontal passage is spiking the temperatures by 10+ degrees within 15 min. Mixing out the inversion + downsloping.

I'll never forget when you went to Donners Pass and experienced the Reality of eleven feet of fresh snow! You got to watch the entire event, too!

looks pretty meh for the first two weeks

Check around the fins of the head towards the coil/starter are for a nest, had one nibble a small wire years ago, regarding moth balls had no luck, in irrigation boxes, they were cuddled up on top of the moth balls! BACK TO WEATHER......

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

I will take either background state as long as it is weak - Nino or Nina. It seems like the last few winters have had a dominant ENSO state, but also strong elements of the opposite background state. I think that is probably due there not being a strong difference between the colder Nina water and the warmer water around it -> What is the word for that? In other words, the lack of sharp differences creates kind of a muted ENSO effect. Is the IO still slated to be quiet?

One word when storing equipment . Moth balls. Well actually two words...

Yeah that's my worry. I have two snow blowers for two different locations. Of course where I expect the most snow that one's not running.

one person once told me that AFF (Air Force Academy air field) and Laramie are two of the hardest airports to forecast

Closing the book on November and now enjoying the chilly temps. 37 degrees outside, feels like holidays inside.

I like Fill 'Er Up. Best gas station food ever.

We’ve had a lot of this the last few years. Feb 2024, we were in store for what seemed to be a major storm. Literally The day before, models pulled the plug, and said maybe an inch. Then the storm came in, and it kept snowing and got heavier and heavier. NWS wouldn’t issue any warnings cuz the confidence was so low….and We got 13” and no warnings. Total modeling failure.

WB 0Z HRRR: precip starts moving in by 6 am.

I like your location for a higher end event.

Well I must admit that down here in south central Texas, I am indeed experiencing very refreshing breezes with mid 40s ambient temps and gusts out of the North to 32 mph. We got the cold front last night and I was so damned excited, just like back in the 10th Grade, that I snuck out on Main Street at 3am in a soaked t-shirt and swimming trunks. I am VERY glad I did not see any cops. They'd have locked me right up. Took a short ceremonial jebwalk. It has been so damn HOT down here. It was 48 at the time amidst northerly winds to 47 mph. No one was around. Sane people were in bed with twenty blankets on. Not the Jebman. I LOVE winter breezes! I got my fix and no one saw me.

Nah not sure it’s wet, I just meant it wasn’t a big deal. Sort of a graze. I see opportunities.

No you don't. But I'll go 1-3" here with rain

@moneypitmike and @Dan check your PM for links.

It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to trend stronger overnight on the CAD. Rn I’d say this event favors snow in VA and an ice storm with a possible front end thump for those along and north of I-85 in NC.

And also wet. I don’t see anything that jumps out as cold and snowy through mid month

It'll be interesting to see who verifies here... WNEP: 1-3 for Tamaqua CTP: 6-8 for Tamaqua

Mice destroyed the transmission in our old Crapsman. We had someone fix it. I hate mice.

Yall need to run some 12 run trend analysis and tell me what you find. Love the victory laps tonight. I do remember you said all rain for you. Hopefully not