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Reeks of a CF. Soundings to pinpoint ratios.

About an inch qpf IMBY before any flip

Euro still has that warm nose at 700-850 gets up to me by Sunday afternoon

And that’s 10:1 so add at least 20% and maybe up to 50%

Hey Grandpa.

What a turnaround on the GFS. Wish the storm was starting right now with that run!

Being honest, without any caffeine in me, to me the 6Z GFS looks very, very similar to the EURO solution. The only difference is the GFS holds the HP in place stronger and longer than the EURO does keeping the CAD in place. We don't want that mess the GFS is offering. Since most are out of the snow game at this point, I'd just soon have T-storm warnings.

Let’s pray the NAM is correct. The last thing NC and SC needs is a crippling ice storm. We still have scars from Helene.

That one may yield better results for you. Hopefully it'll have a CCB that throws some of that back to us west.

At hr81, euro is a little drier, and/or slowed down by a few hours. Less qpf when comparing runs

Gets the coastal cranking a little sooner. 1.5” QPF near BOS and Cape.

6Z euro looks to be colder too.

1.9 inches of true fluff over night

WB 6Z EURO 1am Sunday, 7, 10, 1 pm, 4, 7, 10

Jesh Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Big dog 2 next weekend

Well now looks like the cards left on the table are crippling ice storm or non event

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back. LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal. Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal. today is make it or break it day IMO. I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can.

Actually it’s very fluffy. Not wet at all. Was it the southwest flow upslope here that helped?

The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes

Ain't nobody got time for that on this end, got to be on the job site soon. Quick synopsis everything is certainly still on track

Small tip on interpreting 850 anoms - our climo minimum is -4C, so even if it's "anomalously warm" by 3 C, it's still -1 May not be worth much since it's an AI model and I don't trust thermals (yet), and there are other levels where the warm nose could be strongest (probably 750-800 mb). Mesos will help us figure that out as we get closer in.

Good morning. We suck.

Please note, if you have clicked on a time stamp under my avatar and are seeing this message, you have clicked into the long range thread. For .45" of ice accretion, press 1 To view the NBM total snowfall from two days ago, please press 2 For severe weather please press 0 To view today's 0z Euro's snow for next weekend (24 hour increment), continue scrolling and Mr. Kuchera will be with you shortly TBH it would be peak East TN to get a good snow next weekend after all the drama of this weekend's mess. I have only ONCE in my 42 years of East TN life, ever seen a storm verify from 4-5 days out except 1993. I think we do better when messaging is more like: "after the last miss, we aren't going to worry to much about this one."

Does it really matter what they show? I don’t even look at other stations forecast cause I can forecast for myself hahaha