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Man that winter outlook is grim. A cold March with below normal snow lol

I think it's blocked and the trajectory of the precip moving almost due north. Probably helps to have a strong thermal gradient in there too as the cold can come into the Champlain Valley and west slopes unmitigated (it's already cooling down near freezing in the Champlain Valley). It takes a bit more for that low level cold to cross the barrier, so likely more mixed or non-snow precip to start. ECMWF and ICON are definitely a bit further east with the precipitation, but I think synoptically it would make sense for the western slopes or even Champlain Valley to wring out the moisture better. A lot of low level fog and mist around right now, feels like the low levels are juiced. Seeder feeder with mid-level lift and then low level orographic juice too. I will say it is inverted at the ski area right now. 36F at 3,600ft 38F at 2,600ft 32F at 1,500ft

Mid levels adding a boost to this. Albany radar lighting up.

KMRX is just an absurd radar loop right now. @Bucketheadis going to get a foot+.

It's definitely a day where if this was truly cold ground or if the snow came over for an hour instead of 20 minute bursts over 3 hours, we'd probably get 3 or 4 inches.

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

This. As this case shows, it's tough to get things just right for a certain location with lake effect on the south end of the lake even when there is stationary banding. The jackpot zones are almost always going to be narrow. It's what makes events like Feb 14-16, 2021 rare for the city.

So far just virga on the radar but looks to be trying to drop down over here.

Yeah, I'm skeptical of those QPF amounts but we'll see. If it verifies, thunder would fit. It's hard to rip out that much QPF in like 4 hours of fast moving lift in a colder air mass. It's like 4-8pm or 5-9pm and done.

Same here. Some of the most intense snow in years, immediately followed by bright sunshine. Then repeat.

Snowy week for the mountains. Pretty much high POPs every day.

The first photo was taken Oct 29th the second today, 12 days later. The second, third and fourth photos show how a small piece of inner city Brooklyn accelerated to peak. Looking at the street side or from the backyard roof the transformation gives me a sense of peace …… because, I, like the season, am in the Autumn of my years. Stay well everyone. As always ……

Visible imagery suggests gravity waves are developing just ahead of the potent vort max. I'm starting to see some rising cumulus suggesting the possibility of thundersnow just E of the Knoxville Region.

Yes, I wasn't expecting much activity until 3pm and beyond. MRX had to move the WWA up by a couple hours.

Heck yeah! Im working that intersection today.

Nice! Yeah it's been snowing here non-stop all day. Starting to lay now.

I wouldn’t be surprised at a few rumbles of thunder in that.

The thing is, there was stationary banding, two in fact. The issue was more that the core of the metro was just split by both bands, just due to unfavorable positioning. The main-full lake plume ended up too far west (Racine-Kenosha-Waukegan) and the southern lake/meso-low band was too far south (Lake Co, IN to Iroquois Co).

Family reporting some flurries out in Harrisonburg.

A sign of things to come with modeling in the very short term this upcoming winter? It wouldn’t surprise me.

And to think, last year at this time we were in the midst of the snowiest November for Denver in over 30 years.

It's whiteout, sun, whiteout here. Temp will be 29 when it's sunny, and drop into the 24-25 range when it's snowing.

Met im at Ingles in Rville! Missed u!

Now that we think that…it’ll do the exact opposite. And it Wouldn’t be the first time that happened.