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Not saying it cause it’s a bomb but RAP has been great only model to pick up on the sleet line stalling at Long Island sound

The Jan 2005 AFDs were probably his best

Track / speed more crucial on the 12z suite all looking good - great. RGEM/ICON AIGFS a bit quicker than GFS/NAM. The QPF will be better honed in on later 18z/00z and tomorrow with meso models. At the time Nam/GFS more robust but banding likely under done on the globals in general. There will likely (as occurs in these rapidly developing storms) bands that drop 0.5 or more in 2-3 hours / 3 - 6 inches of snow.

My final prediction: MDT: 2.9” LNS: 5.2” @MAG5035: 3.4” @WmsptWx: 3.2” CTP: 3.5” PHL: 9.7” NYC: 11.5

GFS and GGEM are both really solid with some good banding potential in the interior. Would love for the euro to tick wetter again at 12z

You have the job I (and probably half the forum) wanted. I mean who tf takes diffeq, calc3 and 3 sems of physics and goes into IT, smh lol. Hope you’re right…euro has been stubborn so far.

Cot time.

I genuinely thought you moved and was happy for you to be out of the desert

I've been paying attention to weather models since we could lol. I've never seen the RAP be correct so we're good there.

Walt Drag had a real passion for what he did! The write ups since that time for storms of this magnitude have been meh.

Nudity

Well, I have been called into work tomorrow. Good times to be had!

this is about my call to a T except a 5-8” swath somewhere in my area over to 81 from the IVT.

The model outputs with lesser amounts are getting much bigger... .

Almost looks like it could rival 2015 if things work out.

Yeah I mentioned that in other thread, Could see steady period of snow this evening/tonight

10-20” lollis to 24”

still snowing and stalled

From @MillvilleWx a few minutes ago: 500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online.

I think this is a pretty good map, except there will be a narrow IVT jackpot zone somewhere in our area

Updated with GEFS

Second comment to say the gem’s evolution looked more like the cam’s a bit just a minute ago at 12z. It’s the best that model has looked at h5 to date.

Are we? Couldn’t you see a scenario where the middle region gets left out? We start as rain storm explodes east and we get nothing

I don’t think so at short-range.

Omg the rap stalls south of li