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The 00z ECMWF track now given it a sig better chances for going ST or even T w/ it farther S initially. The warm core is very apparent. 20 C at 925, 12 C at 700, and -5 C at 500 when it it close to 39.7N / 71.8W. Those are Sandy profile numbers from recon when it warm secluded and formed a small inner core the day of landfall (looked a lot like the Prefect Storm 1991 hurricane) after looking less tropical since it was in the Bahamas. And as a result, TS development probs has increased significant to as hiugh as 80% (60% on previous run). And yet nothing from NHC on its TWO.

Yep stronger run. Gfs also caved.

This is “The Perfect Storm”…..all major models show the eye developing at the 250mb level. Also, considering the tilted nature of its development, it will be a busy day later today. You have a strong tropical Burp crashing into a strong high that splits. With the full moon, this has distaster written all over it for CT, RI and southeastern MA. I’m hungry and I hope I get to eat my words.

0z Euro slams into NJ, widespread 2 inches of rain and strong winds for NYC/LI/NJ

That's a very subtropical storm structure

I can't recall, neither such a strong high and (non-tropical) low pressure in September in these areas. This would be impressive for mid-winter!

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do.

Euro trying for nj again. Lol

Dude trust me. Scotty knows

Unnamed Subtropical Storm 1968 85mph 979mb

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

Wonder if Polo being Polo is downstream pumping to cause a bit more atmospheric friction?... It was not forecasted to get as strong as it did Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous

Nam doesn't look to bad either. Put it in the books. Tracks much better concrnsus tonight

Throw in the cmc trying to play with the others but it's too shy and stays out by the cape.

Yep icon gfs and euro are all identical with exact placement only thing to figure out but they all stall, go west then loop then do something.

Icon nearly stalls out dropping pressure south of montauk point till ally 12 Sunday then starts crawling west ish