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as long as the snow sticks around for my snowmobile trip up north first week of March, it can end anytime after 3/10 as far as I am concerned. last year our trip same week got wrecked on the third day when it was absolutely pouring.

band gonna rip in central ia

This is why we can’t have nice things. Premature threadlation

When? Not from Monday on....

Yes, but then on Saturday, there may be some fluff that’s very high ratio that piles up. But I really don’t know a freaking thing.

So nothing of importance to discuss locally? Asking for a friend.

Relative to this season it’s a rare kitchen sink storm. I was expecting a lot more of these.

@donsutherland1has done some excellent analyses showing that a -PNA in Feb, especially second half, isn’t negatively correlated to the chance for a big NYC snowstorm. I decided to just look specifically at -ENSO NYC Feb 5”+ snowstorms since 1950 and found that the NYC median was a very weak -PNA (essentially neutral) for the entire Feb during -ENSO: 19 NYC 5”+ Feb Nina or cold neutral: PNA 2/1/57 -1.2 2/7/67 +0.7 2/19/72 -0.5 2/23-4/72 -0.5 2/8/74 -0.2 2/12/75 -0.8 2/7/79 -1.1 2/19/79 -0.1 2/5-6/85 -0.8 2/2-3/96 +0.7 2/16/96 -0.4 2/22/01 +0.4 2/12/06 +1.7 2/22/08 +0.7 2/8-9/13 +0.4 2/3/14 -1.1 2/13-14/14 -1.0 2/9/17 +0.7 2/1/21 0.0 Median -0.2 Mean -0.1 Range +1.7 to -1.2 So, this suggests that during -ENSO throughout Feb that a -PNA doesn’t hurt significant snow chances at NYC. That being said, the last few 0Z GEFS PNA progs have been going with ~-1.2 for the crucial period, Feb 21-22. If -1.2 were to verify, that would be at/near the lowest PNAs for a Feb La Niña 5”+ NYC snowstorm since 1950, which are -1.2 for 2/1/57, -1.1 for 2/7/79, -1.1 for 2/3/14, and -1.0 for 2/13-14/14. ————— Aside: I want to also mention that I had already done a similar study for DC although I used a lower threshold for there due to lower snow climo, 3”, which like for NYC resulted in a sample of 19 storms. Here are those DC results, which are a bit more +PNA favored for -ENSO during Feb: Median +0.3 Mean +0.2 Range +1.7 to -1.1 ————— So, NYC has done better than DC during -ENSO Febs when there was a -PNA. In other words, unlike NYC, DC has done a little better with +PNAs than -PNAs.

That's not true. The 06Z para GFS did have a low, but it was notably offshore and quickly trucked out to sea. The same is true for the 12Z cycle - it looks nothing like the ops GFS. And apologies for not being able to share graphics.

take a shot of NyQuil anytime "rug pull" is mentioned

Euro did show a big storm

NAM doesn’t appear as flat as the euro at least. Trough appears a bit sharper as well.

Once we created this thread, it saw and decided to act acoordingly.

It has support from the Ensembles that there will be a storm. Not the crazy totals but it's not bone dry like the Euro is.

They were all showing a major blizzard 5 days out.

Anyone know if we allow the extra sampling to be fed to the European modwla as well is American? I guess we do.. Just wondering.. Did the gfs get something the Euro did not or the other way ar9

I’d be surprised if ratios were 12:1… it’s pretty mild tomorrow initially when it moves in. Most spots could get to 34-38F depending on elevation before wet-bulbing… I’m leaning more pasty than 12:1.

Couldn't tell what color was which because they all blurred together with Atari-style graphics. But you just knew somewhere in that rainbow vomit were some 3-foot lollies.

The Euro has been running to dry for us this whole season.

But hey we still have the inverted trough that may/may not happen and if it does probably hits west of us. Yaaaay

It's always the shortwave in Canada. Always. Can't we just tell the shortwave to behave? Will simple instructions work? Do we need to scream up into the clouds? Send up a balloon? Write it a haiku?

My wife doesn't approve of me having this app. I'm gonna lay down some cash after 18z

NAM seems to only disagree more with the GFS over the Alberta low placement this run. It’s a bit north from 12z and a bit less interactive I think. But idk. This feature is too complex for me honestly.

True i guess it is more so what you consider plowable lol. Today has kind of settled in for places like the Lehigh Valley for a 1-2in event with a few outliers