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Only 240-300 hours out... what could possibly go wrong?

Get this guy out of here

The 12z GEFS and GEPS(and prior runs) have roughly 6" of snow for their NE TN ensemble means. Usually, that is a good sign. No idea if those numbers will verify, but I am optimistic that we see some winter weather over the next couple of weeks.

I can't speak for everyone but I suspect if asked today, most would be happy with an average Feb & March even if they finished below normal for the season.

Still to far out and will likely change. Snow showers this weekend for us here Felton disappeared as the system gets pushed OTS. Kick the can all the way to winter 2026-2027. Lol

Here are the full run ensemble clown map members...

He gone!

Pulled the trigger on a trip up to DCL Thurs-Sun... Euro calling for 6", GFS calling for 9". Need some snow in my life.

100% Agree. Bone chilling cold with no snow sucks.

For Stelwagon or Flemish Cap?

Get out

At least it's coming after dark......... silver lining i suppose. lol

Nah if it’s not snowing it can be warm

But that doesn’t mean there can’t be region-wide fun winter events though still to come too.

That's a shame honestly. If the trough axis was focus over the Ohio Valley, we'd have the door open for disturbances to shoot up the coast. At least it's cold. There's nothing worse than 55 and sunny in winter.

The 12z GEM para is again the model which I "think" simulates the next ten days in a sensible fashion. As Boone noted, lots of light events are embedded. Systems don't look overly amped, but looks sensible in terms of its QPF and track given cold air in place. This is what "should" be occurring at the base of a highly amplified trough. Beginning the 17th, there are several small events which rotate through.

Are you really this stupid ? Show me proof . Go ahead.

For what exactly? Still looked like to me

Guidance for Thursday

Thanks Buddy . I'm still not up to par. Energy just doesn't want to come back. Has me rather down physically and mentally. Hopefully I'll get lined out and start participating more. Good discussions going on. Hopefully we reel in a couple big dogs before long. At least it looks almost guaranteed of several light events at the very least. That's a plus nowadays. Snow on snow.

Along with an active southern stream

jelly

It actually did look way better

May be something but probably not a big deal in regards to map features. I am seeing a little lee side low pop for the 15th. Time of day is the deal killer, but interesting nonetheless.