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Today is a textbook outflow day. Synoptic boundary is up on the Ohio River but cut off from greater instability. Outflow boundary OFB is highlighted. Stuck in the Deep South. Lifting north in the Mid-South. Northwest Arkansas has hailers going on, just north of the boundary. If that roots, it could ride down the OFB with a vengeance. Other storms in Texas (off this chart) are rolling east. That'll put 'em in the open warm sector and/or crossing the boundary. If they latch on and turn right, ope! So I like the 5% hatched for now. Need to see where the boundary ends up, which storms interact with it, and where. Small 10% tornado would not shock me later, probably in Arkansas. Continue 5% hatched MEM metro into North Mississippi. Then a bunch of wind rolls into our Region. Looks like initial sups quickly congeal into clusters or 1-2 lines. At first I was gnashing my teeth that I can't chase this. Turns out it'll probably be messy. Keep a vigilant eye out in the Mid-South.

We need this type of rain every few days for weeks to catch up. The water table hasn't even responded yet.

WPC nailed it again.

Below normal temperatures are likely for the foreseeable future. We also turn wetter with rain chances increasing tomorrow morning and especially tomorrow night. Each day trends a bit chillier through the upcoming weekend with highs by Saturday around 15 degrees below normal for the start of May.

Below normal temperatures are likely for the foreseeable future. We also turn wetter with rain chances increasing tomorrow morning and especially tomorrow night. Each day trends a bit chillier through the upcoming weekend with highs by Saturday around 15 degrees below normal for the start of May.

lol maybe that oil money is starting to dry up.

You can see how the deficit got erased in NW Jersey since end of Feb. Been pretty good here.

The 12z GFS is still not backing off for the upcoming storm on Thursday-Friday, at least for the foothills. Regarding last night's precip, my snow melted fast this morning and my gauge recorded 0,40" in total including the rain yesterday. Not too bad and I am hoping that the next storm delivers whether it comes as rain or snow.

I was at my Dad's house in Waldorf the day the tornado went through La Plata. Less than 10 miles from where the tornado passed. It was a wild storm even there. At one point the rain stopped and it was nothing but hail. Golf ball to tennis ball sized. We watched the hail strip the branches off trees as it came down. Got some nice hail dents on my car, but luckily no broken glass. When I headed back to Germantown that night, it was a constant stream of emergency vehicles headed down Rt 5.

You know, we all focus on the hyper-bomb blizzards, but those always screw a large portion of folks over.....as we saw in February. In reality, the highest confidence route to the hallowed grounds of the upper bounds of the NESIS scale is to couple an immense arctic airmass and a slug of moisture on a SW flow aloft. Mutant SWFEs like the one we observed last January just cover hundreds of miles in 14-20" of snowfall, while as alluring as the 40" carrot that is dangled by a high-end coastal is, the tempest needs to track within a narrow corridor to score as highly as these more uniform distributors.

I wouldn't spend any more energy on him, man. Losing battle, lol

0.00” here. Officially TR bc it’s been spitting off and on

Makes sense! thanks Mike!

Finally!!!! .10 of rain.

I can hear my grass growing.

I’m at mower # 5 the grass has been growing pretty fast. 59 and light drizzle currently.

May looks to start near normal temps. Acatt reeling after last weeks hopes and even outright (reckless) calls for two weeks of rhea

Absolutely poured here for several hours. Easily over an inch with those storms

Is there anyone here that was in or around La Plata, MD 24 years ago today?

Light rain downtown Baltimore.

Looks like the operational model versions are trying to keep the circulation more progressive through this weekend. Prior thinking was -NAO type back-logs would risk stalling rhea wheels in the region or close enough to shut down a 1/2 month's worth of outdoor life. If we end up with lows getting N of us though, event if it's BN ... west wind is at least interludes where it's better.

That would be perfect actually.

Picked up a trace this morning here, some parts of the area wet roads briefly near the airport and other roads were just dry.

After 6+" of rain this month, this looks good. Nice n mellow with seasonable temps in town. A couple cooler days, but not too bad.