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I posted in the other sub last week but dont want to poke a hornets nest....this type of pattern progression (Jan 23-Jan 30 give or take a day) in a Nina has alot of potential. Also has a lot of potential heartbreak. I mentioned it before but this shouldnt be brushed over...as the PNA ridge begins to amplifying with energy riding the stj, the heights out ahead rise. Thus, the Jan 24 thing could very well slide N and W or at the very least the boundary may setup farther N than we would like. Subsequently, as the PNA fires and joins with the EPO ridge, the next big stj wave riding thru for the Jan 27-29 thing could end up suppressed or a slider. Again, Im not saying this will happen, but I do urge caution as the biggest fail potential with Jan 24-25 is cutter or boundary too far N, then the fail potential for Jan 27-29 shifts to suppression or slider. Yeah, there are some nice teases on the individual deterministic runs, but keep expectations in check. At least we arent tracking a PAC puke pattern and have some chances. Thats all we know for sure right now.

I have a ways to go before hitting my Pit2 projection. My Mattapoisett prediction was 7". I still have 2.5-3" left to go on that one. I'll probably pass that tomorrow, but I won't be surprised if I don't.

you should change your name from GreyHat to DunceHat since you’re more whiny than Ji

Sorry, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. I don't care what prior runs showed.

Dude every run of everything had me at zero this at least shows some color

I know the caveats but the AI models really have a barking signal in that 7-10 day range. Can’t trust a thing, but the big dogs always bark early. There’s some absolutely insane ensemble means being printed out cycle after cycle. Gives me some of the same vibes from Dec 2009, Feb 2014 and Dec 2018.

Thats why NWS has accumulations for tomorrow at 2 -4 inches and they hinted at more in localized areas in heavier bands.......Eastern NJ and points east

Looks like 6- 8 AM

You can't combine totals from two locations...that's not fair.

Nice wide trough, storms have no where to go but OTS especially weak ones.

What time does it start in your neck of the woods? Unfortunately I'm going to be down there tomorrow.

It's to far in the future and I doubt much will happen at least in my neck of the woods

Unfortunately I think you're right.

Tale of two houses. Westchester top; Suffolk bottom

Latest RRFS looks good

If I get snow tomorrow, it’ll be snow on snow in some shady area!

Right on the cusp of 80" up at WXW2.

Weren't you talking about how all ensembles were showing their greatest agreement with a pretty decent amount, several hours ago?

When a 14 year old says it’s getting old…

Got just shy of 5 inches in Patterson area. Impressive little burst this afternoon.

Worked the brewery today and now home and doing whiskey this evening. Just opened a bottle of Green River Full Proof. Dropped in one small cube because of the 117 proof. Still a little heat, but very nice.

It's been old for 20 years...

1/18-19 was gravy, right? AI euro/gfs both look very good still in the LR

I’m actually liking my spot tomorrow. Far enough inland with a little elevation to avoid major temp issues, but far enough east to hopefully get some good bands even on an 18z scenario. I still think SE MA is going to rip for a while. Might have to wait until 00z for the real goods but they should arrive. I think the midday/PM stuff could be kind of banded/spotty…if it isn’t, that’s a positive sign.

I think that's what'll happen. Good call. Just not enough confidence in widespread 4-8. Good luck out there tomorrow.