All Activity

i want as much rain as possible

El Niño Event First / Key Year NYC Aug Departure NYC Sept Departure EWR Aug Departure EWR Sept Departure 1951–52 1951 -1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -2.1 1953 1953 -0.3 +1.2 -1.7 -0.2 1957–58 1957 -2.5 +0.5 -3.5 +0.2 1963–64 1963 -4.0 -6.2 -2.5 -5.2 1965–66 1965 -2.9 -1.8 -1.9 -0.8 1968–69 1968 -0.1 +1.4 +0.4 +1.5 1969–70 1969 +1.3 -0.2 +0.9 -1.7 1972–73 1972 -0.5 +0.3 -0.5 +0.6 1976–77 1976 -1.8 -2.6 -2.0 -2.7 1977–78 1977 -0.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 1982–83 1982 -3.0 -0.9 -4.0 -2.5 1986–88 1986 -3.0 -1.4 -2.2 -0.6 1991–92 1991 +1.0 -1.8 +1.2 -1.2 1994–95 1994 -2.1 -1.6 -0.8 +0.5 1997–98 1997 -2.8 -2.2 -2.8 -2.3 2002–03 2002 +1.7 +1.0 +1.5 +1.2 2004–05 2004 -1.8 +0.1 -1.9 +0.3 2006–07 2006 -0.3 -2.6 +0.8 -2.5 2009–10 2009 -0.4 -2.9 +0.8 -2.3 2014–16 2014 -1.5 +0.5 -2.0 +0.5 2014–16 2015 +2.9 +5.2 +2.3 +4.2 2018–19 2018 +2.1 +1.5 +2.8 +2.1 2023–24 2023 -1.1 +0.2 +0.2 +2.0 2026–27 2026 TBD TBD TBD TBD

The excellent news keeps on coming! We are gonna have such an exciting very rainy fall/winter here in Texas! Bring on that MONSTER NINO and the Brobdingnagian subtropical jet!!!!!!! This place is soon gonnabe flood central!!!! Lookin forward to some truly EPIC jebwalks near where the waters are rising, while I use my old snow ruler to measure the water depth just like the old days back in the DMV!

I am jealous of your cool July weather!

We can only hope for this prediction to come true

The leaves are getting that leathery look

Nicest day of the month. People who like summer over winter must think every summer day is like this.

Doesn't look like the senate has 60 votes. I'd rather keep the current system-not interested in 8:30 sunrises

We gonna get this place “ Hotter Than Hell”!

Yeah I'm very worried about the tropical season this year due to the super El Nino developing and the Atlantic La Nina popping up. Doesn't mean we can't inch out a tropical system or two making their way through PA but those chances are massively decreased this year. Now if we weren't in such dire drought conditions it wouldn't be much of an issue but that's usually a saving grace at any other time. The 2026 atlantic hurricane season could be as quiet as the 2015 season was which was extremely inactive. In 2015 we had 4 hurricanes and 11 tropical storms which was also another super El Nino year. Though I don't think we were worrying about rain that year according to the drought monitor data from that summer so it wasn't such a big issue. Here's hoping we get lucky with a storm or two despite the low activity.

79 / 58 full sun

warmer version of 97/98

Exactly. I don't have high hopes, but see what happens. We had 2 good ones in a row-so whatever we get is gravy in my book

This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow

first week of august trending warmer

"the heat feels less hot later in summer" is something i've never heard a normal person say

what a weird tropical storm surface low by Louisiana convective storm far south

I was kidding obv. I take things 2 weeks at a time. It might be a consistent 2 weeks of garbage come winter, but we will see.

Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream.

El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).

For an illustration on how Phoenixville has changed over time (Source: Berkeley Earth): These changes mean that simply using raw data across time creates an "apples-to-oranges" comparison when it comes to data integrity. Notice the larger difference in warming trend between the raw data and region and much closer figure between the breakpoint-adjusted data and the region. That's very close to the observed warming for Chester County and Pennsylvania for the 1895-2025 period: The raw data (0.11°C/century) is the clear outlier. That divergence from the regional and statewide data illustrates the flaws in treating a station's record identically despite breakpoints, station moves, etc.

"Only" 2.70 so far in Wilson. Looking at the radar, looks unlikely I make it to 3.00", which would be a bit of a disappointment. Still great though. At 4.39" for the week and 6.47" for the month

Yeah probably not a lot of swampazz this summer. Just a lot of 50s and 60s dews from now through Jan.

currently riding this ridge roller being sold by the goofus want to believe classic