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Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather.

this is just more more distraction, and no one here is disagreeing that fossil fuels have contributed to human progress, that's just more distraction please stay on topic: the continued use of fossil fuels is progressively impacting climate and ecosystems and accelerating the rate of climate change, and what we are going to do about it (hint on the second part: not much)

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Unquestionably, higher surges have occurred, even with the top 10 list given. We just don't have tide gauges dense enough or a long enough period of record, and there are very localized areas when the surge is funneled so it can get much higher than the mean (small inlets or rivers that narrow as they go inland). Ike was unique in the fact when it was at 22.7N/83.3W, it was 966 mb but "only" 65 kt winds (from recon). I think that is lowest pressure for such low winds for a HU S of 25N in the Atlantic. Standard W/PR for 966 mb is about 95 kt, but it is not one-size-fits-all. Normally you'd see such W/PR disparity much farther N where cooler SSTs, baroclinic process, and increased Coriolis decreases winds for a given pressure compared to the tropics. Ike had gone though 2 ERCs and was a rather large HU. It just goes to show the vargaries of wx phenomena.

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

Sun is out in Fairfax. Weather.gov is having connection problems - got a 500 a few minutes ago.

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

Oh you’re doing it. Doing it well.

My parents would call that peak back in the day when we lived in New Hampshire. I always thought their idea of peak was behind mine, like you, greens mixed in is good. Their take was if there was pretty much any any green its not peak. That's one of the things I like about the foliage season though it can be a little different for everyone and yet beautiful regardless. Great photos, as is tradition, and thanks to all who post in here, much appreciated.

I agree Feb has the best chance of being cooler. Most of the caving is currently in the Jan window. I would expect something closer to what the BoM ensemble depicts.

OKX point and click showing sunny for Monday and Tuesday

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Don’t do it

Keep going it will be a big problem Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

I'm not sure I've ever seen a winter outlook calling for above average precip here. Whether we have el nino or la nina, these maps always put eastern Iowa in the average to below average precip area.

If there are 1-2 major snow events this winter, it won’t have much to do with the PDO IMO.

There’s no doubt it’s most likely going to be a very mild winter for the country overall. Maybe I’m being picky but I don’t like how 97-98 kind of progressed backward of what you’d expect from a Nino with February being the warmest month that season. If you’re going to use 97-98 as your analog season and December ends up being the warmest month then it wasn’t 97-98 like at all IMO. Maybe everyone disagrees with me, I don’t know. lol

Stuck under cloud cover. Where's my heat?

Hr 180 has that piece of energy diving in like the Euro had the other night.. heading NNW at the end of the run

First freeze of the season here as well with a low of 30. About a week later than normal.

I will be covering as many plants tonight as possible as we head down to near 32º. I still have a couple hummingbirds and a garden full of salvias at peak bloom. We get another ten days of mild weather after tonight, so it's worth it to do the often-frustrating work of covering everything with sheets during the chilly, breezy conditions this evening.

Loving today’s chill in the air after the hot ass summer! No complaints from me Local Outdoor Farmer’s market season coming to an end soon but these last few weeks of the month are my favorite times to visit. Nothing beats a sizzling hot crepe or hot food from the farmer’s market on a cool, windy fall day!

That data, particularly how they relate/conveys behavior about the natural setting, are misleading the way you've presented. ...a basic interpretation skill of the data is needed here: 1 ... systems in nature seldom move along predictable well behaved trajectories. As an aside, and obvious caution is also needed. GBR system is one example. Note, ~40% of the whole world's reefs are at risk of extinction due to climate change. 2, logical flaw in you one example anyway: That GBR system shows recovery; that does not evince any kind of proof of either sustainability there - certainly there's no logic in using one example that the world is safe from climate change, either. But we'll let that tacit exception go... 3, the primary aspects that affect coral: Thermal stress and bleaching: heat can kill corals, or weaken them and reduce growth and reproduction—even if they survive. Mechanical stress from turbid waters... this arrives from enhancing wave action in the mean energy, as well as specific to tropical cyclones. Competing biology. Example, Crown-of-thorns starfish that eat living coral. Specific species ... coral reefs are a vast colony of different species. Some regions of the world have more(less) phenology. So, you're use in exemplifying the GBR demonstrates a too limited, too linear response mechanism in how/why the affects/effects in the vitality of reef. 'Oh, since there's a recent regrowth' no thermal stress. Incorrect. Your are not even aware that a biological competition within the reef, combined with transients in growth offsets - causing temporary rebound, or much in the way of the complexity of how these individually differentiating factors, then interact to create curve behavior that moves up and down but is misleading over larger data sets. WRT to GBR example... studies by AIMS and Yale point to the biggest factor in recent regrowth was particularly fast-growing species, Acropora. The corals produced were during a relatively favorable interval for species, but that does not represent the vitality of the whole structure. It can't. Not when the vitality requires a vast phenology of species input. Overall, bleaching events were still extensive but less intense than those earlier events, causing less mortality. But, the recnet increase was driven mostly by the Acropora. So the rise is better explained by rapid coral growth plus a temporary reduction in regional stress factor, not as evidence of a sustained ocean-cooling trend. .. I don't have time to run down the rest of you list of probably similarly shallow refutation points... I'll stop here. Good luck with your debate.

ICON i know but looking interesting at hr 168