All Activity

Picked up 0.11” of precipitation yesterday. Frosty morning low of 30

Has the triangle in the jackpot zone so I know that map ain’t accurate

The big blue circles that appear quickly are absolutely ducting effects in general. But the bird signal tends to be buried in that noise because they aren't usually flying all that high off the ground and also because they roost at night and take off in the morning when the inversions are most pronounced. The reflectivity levels they produce are often pretty low because even though they are solid with a decent cross-section there aren't all that many of them (usually) in a volume of air compared to say droplets in moderate rain. Close to the radar where the measured volume sizes are smaller they'll be brighter. Also, the correlation coefficient is lower compared to rain based on the random orientation of their wings and asymmetric shape. Anyway I've met those guys and a few times I did get the sense that they were mistaking radar artifacts for birds but that would be the data in which you'd be looking for birds.

Wish I didn’t see that. A little morning sun was fun while it lasted.

What a morning.

46° and drizzle clouds pushing westward

Sunny when I got up. Socked in now. 42F low.

The only strong el ninos that didn't tip their hand early were 1986 and 2009. Super El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good) 1972 - RONI MAM (0.8); ONI AMJ (0.7) 1982 - RONI MAM (0.6); ONI MAM (0.5) 1997 - RONI MAM (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.8) 2015 - RONI FMA (0.5); ONI SON 2014 (0.5) Strong El Ninos (when they reached el nino threshold for good) 1957 - RONI FMA (0.7); ONI MAM (0.7) 1965 - RONI AMJ (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.5) 1986 - RONI JAS (0.6); ONI ASO (0.7) 1991 - RONI AMJ (0.5); ONI AMJ (0.5) 2009 - RONI ASO (0.6); ONI JJA (0.5) 2023 - RONI JJA (0.6); ONI AMJ (0.6)

I feel like Ray. 45° while CT sucks too feels better than 60° while it’s 85° down there.

Looks like the party is over in CT too. Shit weekend en route.

I got the 63 on Thursdaywith some sun. Yesterday if I recall correctly, it was near 60.

You will by tomorrow and next week I think-ugh

As we saw back in 2023-2024, the atmospheric response from the El Nino Ridge parked just north in Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS was one of the strongest on record. But the El Niño trough expression through the Aleutian Low and trough across the south to the Mid-Atlantic was much weaker than usual for such a strong Nino ridge which lead to the record warmth with that event. So even the ONI reaching 2.1 really didn’t do that event justice since it failed to incorporate the record Nino 4 +30C warm pool which was the warmest on record. You will notice that the MEI and SOI responses were also much weaker than usual for such a strong event. It will be interesting to see as this one develops whether the SOI, MEI, and RONI lag behind again. All I can say at this early juncture is that the WWB atmospheric component from March and April was much stronger than in 2023 near all time record values leading to the very impressive OKW beneath the surface.

It is way too early for this shit.

Happy husband appreciation day everyone. Just letting everyone know so your loved one doesn’t inform you about it until 10pm.

Yeah, on the HRRR and NAM 3k everyone gets something, but the lower totals are around 0.05".

Its been brutal the last 2-3 days. 40s and 50s with little to no sun.

This years team certainly has flaws but they definitely don’t quit. Last year it felt like any deficit was game over.

It really is amazing how that works

Looks like the STJ really becomes active as we head into May with the rapidly developing El Niño.

If you could somehow harness the energy spent by triggered folks responding to your posts about the AC and dews, you could power the whole Tolland massif (except for when lines are downed in storms).

I don’t think we are going to have to wait for the spring barrier to end with this one. It has already tipped its hand, just like 1982, 1997 and 2015 did by this time. The big ones all do. IMO this one is headed to super and very likely to be an east-based/EP event

No doubt. But it was a phenomenal week around here. Even today bright and sunny this morning and was able to run in shorts and short sleeves . Not looking forward to Monday run in winter gear

What were the highs the last few days down there? Whenever I look I see low 50s from BOS to GHG.