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0Z Canadian and GFS- as we move closer to the event once again the trend is dryer

I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder.

Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either.

The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar.

When the cell was maxing near S Wey. earler

I can smell the rain , but I'm left high and dry at home so far. The ground was still wet when I left Mechanicsburg, but it was completely dry when I got home. I'm pretty sure that I heard one rumble of thunder while out in my shed about 25 minutes ago, but I didn't see any lightning and nothing was detected. Some rain before the wild raspberries start to abort and lightning bugs peak, sure as hell would be nice. Some of the main things that I grade my summer on are convection, heat, humidity, frogs, lightning bugs and raspberries all are in danger of being extremely lackluster, this summer, and it's really starting to f****** p*** me off.

Probabilities of all severe hazards seemed to go up significantly between the 6z and 12z runs. Definitely worthy of a watch for the next couple of days.

My somewhat suspect PWS gauge has 2.66” this week. Stein would be welcome to visit for a short time up here.

Another 90F at DCA today.

same here. Everything is crunchy.

Brb gonna go buy a lottery ticket

Holy smokes - some actual rain!

Okay nevermind it came back pouring again lol

Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members.

Finally getting some heavier rain. Okay as I was typing this it just completely stopped LMAO it went from straight pouring to a very light drizzle within seconds. I've never seen that happen so fast before. Basically poured for a few minutes then poof. Nothing.

02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were

East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though.

Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit.

No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions.

CSU MLP page agrees with an area of 5% TOR

Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least.

No idea.

Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is.

Ever had a La Nina this east based?

THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay.