All Activity

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter. The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America. But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. We probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter. If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 500 mb composite 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·sdptoreoSnma997a669u41tg6fh6f8h58f818c304mh251m1am1606753415 · Ready to hop on the temperature roller coaster?! Temperatures will climb in to the 60s again by Monday and then plummet into the 30s on Tuesday. 'Tis the season for BIG temperature swings.

Low of 26.6 Still a wintry loom with the remaining patches of snow.

Lol. Everywhere but paved really, makes for nice distinct lines like landscaping. It looks great right now as the sun is coming up over the ridge

24.4 for a low. 25.5 currently

Found this on facebook I didn't know NWS was doing a storm survey. Nepa Storm Chasers eSnosprdot8ch492c2au0hctgtfa7h30f8lhi1ct786i7mh7um2c3693i7t3 · Dauphin County Tornado Update Some followup on the tornado warned storm in Dauphin County on Wednesday. I have actually drive on the exact road in the exact rural area it struck and there's a solid chance it missed every home as it's extremely rural in Shermans Dale and Blain, PA. The storm would have only been on the ground for a short time maybe 10-15 mins, 3-8 miles max before lifting. This may have hit a house or just tore up some woods but there was clearly evidence to suggest it was causing damage. I clipped a photo of the debris ball with the overlay of the general area it would have been. It's all thick woods and very rural homes. I personally stayed in a cabin about 2-4 miles from the exact spot this storm happened at. I'm very curious to see what the NWS survey team determines when they conclude their investigation. Anyway, thought this may be interesting to everyone. I'll update when I found out. - Espresso

BWI failure meanwhile DCA revised up to 0.2”

Its like the spring barrier doesn't exist. Every year same time all the Nino talk is speculation.

Absolutely! So many memorable experiences this season. Truly an incredible winter. The winter of 26 The Little Devil winter.

20.4° Feels brutal after the past week

Shot with your own gun

How did BWI only have a T? Did they measure after it melted? Did they measure on the tarmac?

Yeah, I agree. It was significantly deeper than the Blizzard of 1888. Had March 1993 taken a benchmark track instead, then we would have had a 40”+ jackpot with 80-100 mph gusts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones and drifts approaching 6-10 feet high in spots. https://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/Overview_Kocin_Schumacher_Morales_Uccelini.pdf

If (IF) there’s actually a super El Niño (region 3.4 over +2.0C), it’s very, very unlikely to be a cold winter. Snow is a different matter, since one major KU can skew the entire winter (i.e., 82-83, 15-16). 97-98 was a total dud for snow obviously

33 years ago, the Storm of the Century: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0313.php

I’m sure that tiny light blue blob will work its way toward the NE and social media will be flooded with “so much for CC” posts again.

AC on for the NYC police cruisers through New Years.

26 Just a bit colder than this time yesterday

31.6

After Monday it looks like we stay on the cool side but no real signs of storms. Just useless cold.

Big potential Monday creeping into southeast and south central Pennsylvania with a negatively tilted system. ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

It would be like spring for you, but different!

Garbage can tops? Zilch here, not even a trace on the board.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z. There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA. Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.