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Nice shots! There’s been a blue snow goose hanging around Centennial intermittently the last couple weeks. Need to unleash a wolf pack to clear out those Canada geese.

Maybe so, I've seen this type of overrunning event really pump precip more than modeled due to WAA down south many times before. Might not be a thing here as much though. Probably putting too much hope into it at this point, but I was out of town for our two NY snows this year, and haven't seen a true winter storm in probably 4 years!

They should put it in the trash can before that cause it’s worse than the Nam from what I have seen so far going back to December lol

Look at Kentucky ! If things don't change, it's just not the Great Valleys Year. Man.

Yore

Is this replacing the NAM?

I’d like to think with that upper level look, the cutoff wouldn’t be that sharp.

Southern Upstate SC: “Check Please!” I’ve been at my place for 10 years and have yet to see any decently measurable snow since I’ve been here. We are due!

The RRFS is very expansive with the precip. shield to the NW of the SLP. It's probably too expansive. I'm guessing a lot of that would end up as virga with that surface depiction combined with a weak 700mb low. The RRFS, NAM12km and NAM3km have a frontogenic banding signature on Saturday.

So basically, what I hear @Carvers Gap saying..............is we need to start researching how to cloud seed in our area. lol

Even the NAM hates the foothills

Big un ‘ coming

I remember your children loved playing in the snow!

In our area it makes sense if there’s bands or streamers after one of these cold shots. For the Deep SE-yeah I ain’t got no explanation lol!

EDIT: Got a Rufus vort map from a friend on another forum and re-added the right NAM vort map Our problem on the NAM to my untrained eye is that piece of energy in Manitoba. It really rushes to push our wave out to sea (obviously not having any blocking probably hurts too) On our new buddy Rufus, our storm seems to be moving more quickly while the Manitoba wave lags behind, giving it a little more space to push west. FWIW, what Rufus is doing synoptically makes more sense to me given the type of storm for the climo I'm used to down in North Carolina. But that doesn't mean it's handling the timing particularly better than the NAM. This would be an interesting test for a model that sounds like will eventually replace the NAM Thi This is our reward on the back end^

RRFS is North with precipitation at 18Z. (WB)

RAH seems to be going with a rain/snow mix for Raleigh and points east with all snow west.

I never imagined this forum diverge into a discussion about AI Admittedly, your last sentence is difficult to accept. I'm sure most of us feel the same too. To add to the discussion, here's the 12z ensemble spread and diagnostic prate/type at 90hr... Still uncertainty amongst the ensembles/models so we're not entirely dead yet. If I had to stratify it as is (for measurable precipitation), I'd call it the AIs+ICON+CMC vs. GFS+ECMWF+UKMET.

@Hvwardif you’ve recovered from that pitcher of beer, could you inject some hopium?

The ECMWF has not said that the EC-AI will replace the operational model. It complements it. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai-forecasts-become-operational

An already existent modest low pressure over Atlanta moving northeast is infinitely better for DC and far easier to predict with consistency and confirmation. The northern snd southern interaction and phase jumping from west of applchns to off the coast Way more difficult with many moving parts

Ray is overjoyed

We had major droughts in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic in 1998-99 and 2001-02.

We’ll hug the RRFS A (no clue what that model is but I dig its output)

Agree Saturday might be more interesting