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I got like 10"...I went to sleep very early on because I knew it wasn't my storm...just like in the Jan 2022 event. The lead-up is exhausting, so if I don't think it will produce to a level commensurate to hope/expectations, then I check out.

No one is infallible...I'm disregarding. Who knows, maybe he caught a buzz and was feeling gitty....dude is human,

Stein rolls on

This is so un nino like with the dry conditions. Reminds me of Oct/Nov 2001 73 here right now

Just saw that. Gotta watch the trends on the EURO/AI/EPS more than anything. GFS lowest skill scores of almost any model and just read a piece from NOAA that the October 2026 upgrade from V16 to V17 has been pushed off a year to next October. I hardly use the GFS for anything anymore. I just find it useless, IMO. We'll see how this evolves over the next 5 days or so. Interesting to say the least. Fact that CMC still has wet solution makes me lean in that direction at the moment....pending 12Z EURO/AI/EPS data. Anything is better than the snooze fest that is ongoing now.

Looking at today's 12z GFS run, it looks like it wants to wash out the front late next week and then keep us relatively dry until at least Veterans day.

^The 12Z UKMET has no TC or even any surface low in this area.

73 now

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way? Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. Which is relativistic, haha. I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm

The main reason...he has said several times NYC would never get a 50" winter or KU again without a VEI 7 or 8 volcano happening. He was doing the whole oh look here thing with keys trying to draw attention away from the blizzard and his terrible blown call.

I understand that. But why did Paul Roundy, whom many of us including myself greatly respect, today post that the 70 hPa signal is still E when it already switched to W (~+3) in Sept per the first source below? Does he use a source that has different values from these two? https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat The above link had it already at ~+3 in Sept. at 70 hPa and then this has it ~+8 at 70 hPa as of 10/28/26: —————————— Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 Message Present 70 hPa QBO signal is still easterly. It will likely be changing over the next few months.

Huh?

Gfs mostly dry now next week Cmc is widespread 2.5"+ though

Warm and juicy. Doesn't look like much precip in Denver metro, but what falls will almost certainly be plain old rain.

That Michigan lilac thing must be a “Michigan” thing…..zero here too.

Lol my Lilacs are void of leaves

Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....

Both the ECMWF and AIFS show 1" or more precipitation across the region. Here are the average figures for Central Park (IFS-AIFS mean). The conventional ECMWF (IFS) is currently wetter than the AIFS.

64° in downtown Northampton under bright blue skies. What a day!

It changed in Sept from E (white) to W (gray) at 70 hPa and should by now already be well within the gray (say likely +5+) per this (I’m hoping this updates soon to confirm this): Edit: confirmed as it went from -10 in Aug to +3 in Sept. at 70 hPa: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat Oct should be out in early Nov and will likely be higher than +3.

I've never heard of these guys, nor do I fully understand their methodology, but they nailed the SSW to the day back in August: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2090562681321246959?a=Y2KkwpeTt0T4RBobgOE&s=20

No it didnt. There is a lag and also warmth before these warming events.

Records: Highs: EWR: 82 (1946) NYC: 82 (1961) LGA: 81 (1946) JFK: 79 (1961) Lows: EWR: 31 (1932) NYC: 31 (1925) LGA: 35 (2011) JFK: 30 (1962) Historical: 1844: 30 inches of snow fell during a three day storm at Buffalo Barracks, NY. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1873L Lowest minimum temperature was 26° in DC and tied 10-31-1917 record. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1925 - Nashville, TN, was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel) 1925: Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 44 °F making it the coolest October day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1925: The earliest snow greater than one inch in Washington, DC, fell on October 30, 1925, (2.2") and October 20, 1940,(1.4"). The deepest Baltimore snowstorm ever recorded in October struck on this date in 1925, killing at least one person and blinding the rail birds at Laurel Park through all seven races. The storm dropped 1 to 3 inches of snow across the region, with an official 2.5 inches in Baltimore. That remains the deepest October snowfall on record for the city. In Baltimore, the snow began falling around 1 p.m. and continued into the evening, even as surface temperatures remained above freezing. 1947 - The Donora, PA, smog disaster finally came to an end. For five days an inversion trapped impurities in the lower atmosphere over the Monongahela Valley killing 20 persons, and leaving more than 2000 others sick. (26th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1949: Haines Junction recorded The Yukon Canada’s greatest daily snowfall record as 26.5 inches fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 74 mph near the town of Gould. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the central U.S. Temperatures warmed into the 80s form Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 20 degrees at South Bend IND was a record for October, and lows of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids MI and 20 degrees at Fort Wayne IND equalled records for October. The low of 2 degrees at International Falls MN smashed their previous record for the date by 11 degrees. Syracuse NY received 2.9 inches of snow to establish a record for October with 5.7 inches for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Temperatures soared into the 70s in the northeastern U.S. The record high of 73 degrees at Alpena MI marked their sixth straight day of record warmth. In the western U.S., Klamath Falls OR reported a record low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: The Perfect Storm, also known as the No-Name Storm reached maximum strength on this day with a low pressure of 972 mb and sustained winds of 69 mph. 1991: After absorbing Hurricane Grace on the 29th, an intense ocean storm at 972 millibars or 28.70 inches of mercury, known as the Perfect Storm. The storm took a very unusual course and moved westward along 40°N and battered eastern New England with high winds and tides. Winds had already been gusting over 50 mph along the coast two days before. Major coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred all along the New England, New York, and New Jersey coastlines. Over 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed from tides anywhere from 4 to 7 feet above normal. North Carolina's coast was lashed with occasional winds of 35 to 45 mph for five consecutive days. Other high wind gusts included: 78 mph at the Chatham NWS, 74 mph at Thatcher Island, 68 mph at Marblehead, 64 mph at Blue Hill Observatory (all in Massachusetts) and 63 mph at Newport, RI. Waves 10 to 30 feet high were common from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. In New Jersey, the greatest tidal departures of winter storms of record occurred during this event, with tide heights exceeded only by the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944. In Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, the highest water levels were comparable to those of the nor'easter of March, 1962. A record high tide of 7.8 feet occurred at Ocean City, MD on the 30th, which eclipsed the old record of 7.5 feet recorded during the March 1962 storm. In Massachusetts, 25-foot waves reached the shoreline atop high tides already 4 feet above normal. At Boston, the tide reached 14.1 feet above mean low water or about 1 foot less than the tides associated with the "Blizzard of 1978. " One ship east of New England reported a 63 foot wave. Heavy rain continued into November 1st. Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA ended up with 5.76 inches of rain. Total damage from the storm exceeded $200 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1991: A strong winter storm brought southwest Kansas its first snowfall for the year, dumping up to 14 inches in Garden City. A large storage shed collapsed due to heavy snows in Johnson, and slippery roads caused a lot of havoc and claimed the life of a child in an automobile accident. Bitter cold temperatures also accompanied the heavy snows, and wind gusts to 45 mph brought wind chills down to -20°. The frigid conditions and blowing snow claimed the lives of two men, both of exposure in separate incidents, when they left their cars after they got stuck. Both men tried to make their way back home. (Ref. The Perfect Storm ) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1991: Billings, MT dipped to -7 °F which set a new record low for the month of October and it was the first time the station had even been below zero in October. Other October record lows included: Sheridan, WY: -9 °F and Miles City, MT: -8 °F, Scottsbluff, NE equaled their record for the earliest below zero temperature recorded with a low of -1 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Record cold and snow occurred in the central and southern U.S. Cincinnati, OH recorded 5.9 inches of snow for its greatest October monthly snowfall ever. San Antonio, TX saw flakes for the first time ever in October. Laramie, WY plunged to 18° for its coldest reading on record for October. The 12° reading at Amarillo, TX set the same record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2004: Exceptionally heavy rains drenched the Manoa Valley near Waikiki in Hawaii. 10 inches of rain fell at the Manoa Arboretum in just 12 hours, causing flooding that rushed through the University of Hawaii's main research library. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. WxDoctor) 2012: Hurricane Sandy continues to loom ominously off the U.S. east coast, bringing very heavy rain and tropical storm to hurricane force winds to many millions of people well before the worst arrives. The coastal flooding is already terrible, as expected (even as far south as Miami and Fort Lauderdale!). Locations from North Carolina to Maine will continue to see incredible coastal flooding/erosion, with the worst near and north of where the center crosses land (approximately southern NJ into NYC, Long Island). Inland flooding will also be a large problem in the coastal states as well as the inland states throughout the northeast. Finally, the 50-90mph winds that many places will experience can easily damage roofs, break tree limbs, and uproot trees, bringing power lines down with them. Superstorm Sandy. October 28-29. Category 1 Hurricane Sandy transitioned into a monstrous extratropical storm while making landfall along the New Jersey coast, resulting in one of the most intense and damaging East Coast storms of all time. Surging Atlantic waters (8-14 feet) inundated the Jersey shore and low-lying areas of NYC and Long Island, causing estimated damages of at least $60 billion. The storm caused 72 direct deaths (87 indirect) in the United States, the loss of power to 8.5 million homes and businesses, and the cancellation of more than 18,000 airline flights.

Already to 70 but the clouds / front (dry) already sagging south into NNJ. Winds/breezy this afternoon after low 70s. Cooler but cotinueds dry weekend before warming up Mon - Wed, ahead of next rain chane 11/5 - 11/7. Beyond there overall near / above normal with strong ridging to the north and troughs undercutting the ridge could spell cut off city especially in the nations center and to our west but could translate to a wetter period overall 11/5 - 11/4.