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The HRRR tends to be too wet at this range, so precip amounts are likely somewhat overdone. The snow map is using dynamic snow:liquid ratio calculated by the HRRR. What is interesting is the 12 to 13:1 ratios from western LI and NYC to NE NJ.

I feel like those are modeled every decent storm, then fade quick as storm starts, models are more weenies that us.. They happen but are very rare ..

oh not a fan of his

Merry Christmas to snowman and everyone! A 100+ mph or 50ish m/s peak has been forecasted for over a week on the EPS (by the way, 80-85 mph is normal…so 100 mph isn’t as anomalously high as it may sound). During these cold and often snowy E US periods in Jan, the SPV averaged 100 mph+ (peak in mph noted) keeping in mind that the 2026 peak is being forecasted at ~110-120 mph: -2025: 130 peak -Jan 1-8 of 2018, which had very cold and a very rare SE coast big snow: 130 -2016 had cold around the period of the huge NE snowstorm: 150! -2014: 120 -2nd half of 2011 had big snows/cold NE: 110 -1st half of 2010: 120 -Jan 1-17 of 2009: 150! -2nd half of 2005: 160! -2nd half of 2000: 125 -1st half of 1996: 130 -1984: 155! -Jan 1-18 of 1981: 150! -Jan 9-20 of 1979: 125 ——————————— Anyone can see all of these zonal wind details here, which is where I just got it from: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

Is the NAM starting to pick up on where that fronto band will traverse? But you can see with this one...its essentially where that fronto band occurs. Outside of that band precip is pretty meager. The cutoff is going to be wild

Called the hartford jack this run

NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area.

The preceiptitation won't be particularly heavy so it might be prime accretion weather especially Friday night with temperatures in mid to upper 20's. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

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There’s a ton of warm air into this. 850-700 fronto seems pretty far north. As long as dry air doesn’t kill it, you could argue a good band into CT maybe even near Kevin. Hopefully a little CJ here.

I kind of like sleet, has some serious staying power (not that it matters much this time, there's a driving rainstorm just a few days later). 3K with a solid shift south as well

Ice ice baby Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Who is shocked by that?

Yup, must have been

you still get a lot of sleet

Pretty decent shift south on the NAM

I'm shocked.

0.0% chance that happens

Nam Hammers

Nice hit almost to kevin on nam

Yep caved

Pretty amazing 2days ago I thought there was no chance this would trend N with the blocking that was forecast but I’ve been around here long enough to know i should’ve known better than to trust any models 4-5 days out. By days end this will be a nothing burger for this sub forum. Merry Christmas

Steve D.

The Nam came south by a lot

NAM coming in hot and heavy. that is a crushing even through Hartford. Hefty fronto band