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Except I’m at stupid IAD

The last 5 days have been insane here. You literally can’t stop moving. It’s like living in the Amazon.

Good morning BW. Sadly and I mean this for city residents only. Central Park, at least, in the warm season is not a typical indicator of what our five Borough folks are experiencing, temperature wise. Newark and our airports set records and yet our official high temperature is 91. The dryness concerns me as I believe we are near six inches below yearly average rainfall to date for the city. Stay well, as always ….

MEX is like 75-80 for everyone CON-south next week. I don’t understand the fretting over that. Yeah we lose the dews and rad spots will have 45-50 nights, but it doesn’t look dire? Beyond d7 I really don’t care what they spew out so INS can post his 300hr 3C 850 maps and I’ll print them and use them for TP.

Looks like lower dews tomorrow. I jsut mean a true soupy summer morning.

Last night I did a 5 minute post dinner stroll to try and get ahead of insulin resistance ... and that was about 15 min after sunset in the still warm/sultry evening air. I came to halt and stood their in the dead quite and did not hear one ear whir, and did not feel a single insect land on the legs. I don't know what's going on... we don't seem to have any squiter's down this way.

Supposed to be 90 tomorrow and Sun on the same MOS I just impugned haha. Hey, it is what it is. If that's the case, you probably have until that front comes through overnight into Monday morning. Next week looks like a "seasonally BNer" - ie, not ridic just cooler than it should be for the fact that this is going on at the same time... (the brown line is the world ... buckin' for warmest ever against 2024 and 2023 as we speak) Sometimes I think SE Can/NE U.S. are not part of Earth Anyway, despite that weird intention by Gaia to bull's eye New England for enabling deniers, if not hiding CC from Washington D.C. policy makers altogether, ... the actual thickness in that pattern are not appreciably cold. Clears out with WNW breeze in 558 dm -type thickness and it's upper 70s. So there's a sneaky sort of aspect in that, too -

It’s soupy enough I think the mosquitoes are breeding in midair.

Now this is a summer morning despite the clouds. Too bad this is it for awhile.

From someone who has, for better or worse, followed the Cfs2 forecast follies over the years, the bias corrected SSTA plumes have almost always been more accurate, whether warmer or cooler. Fwiw

Okay ... heh I don't think this is the fault of the numerical models. All of them, including the NAM ... had 700 and 500 mb substantive RH pollution through mid afternoon today. Yet, the MOS (MET and MAV) guidance have "SC", which stands for scattered ( significant solar rad penetration inferred), with temperatures going birzirk to the mid 90s. At least for present hour, it's a reasonable explanation for the discrepancy. The interpretive algorithms ( MOS) are thus somehow statistically offsetting the objective guidance, which would be an error to do so in this case. The cynical explanation because I hate everybody ... this is a nice and tidy example of how you manufacture a bust... You get a "lazified" Met society, getting too used to slouch AI and tech in general to do their jobs for them, and in their reliance there is thus a lack of applied Meteorology to the data. A piece of shit work ethic that gets exposed when the these coffee break solutions in turn fuck up. Ha. I dunno... maybe the forecast gets saved by the bell so to speak if this grunge some how suddenly uncaps the sky.

That’s what she said. Got enough rain to wet the pavement here around 9:30-10 last night.

Trace at MHT. Epic.

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA: June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

Was a mild storm at home...some twigs and leaves down; but drove to work this morning (3 miles east) and there's a fair number of small branches down. Live poplar mostly.

Another overnight car-topper...er, 0.05" in the bucket. 78F/DP 71F

Tonight looks dry

Should this ceiling contamination go on much longer we're looking at a significant temperature bust today - I'm sure Ineedacoldbullshitfilterlikeanalcoholicneedsaclinic will stamp a 100% emoji on this ... but CT also just cleared out rather abruptly over the last hour. Interesting, considering they were wet down there last evening - but this material is mid level so probably not related to that same murk. Either way, temperature can't really rise unless the clearing down there expands. We'll see. We'll rise fast if that happens, but already we're behind yesterday despite the higher launch pad.

1” here in lynbrook most of which fell in 20 minutes with a wet microburst. Visibility was down to a few hundred feet during the peak. .

Hi imby/Columbia on Thursday a “normal” 98.6° Thursday rainfall 0.21” June rainfall 0.77”

ff 61st Ave and Polk Pl. in Merrillville, IN, taken from my yard.

I hope you have backup plans to sit at Obrycki's

Sunday timing is not great for me with a 5pm flight

Saw this way too late, but got some excellent responses below. Nothing to add to what has already be hashed out. Environmental conditions thermodynamically were solid for the setup, but we were lacking in shear within the mid and upper levels to sustain prominent mesocyclones to really pack the punch needed. I was skeptical of the risk posed by SPC yesterday. I genuinely think they need to spend a year out here to experience how much we suck at severe so they can think twice. After living in West Texas for 5 years, there's not much that excites me here anymore, severe-wise. If I am excited, you should be too as my standards have been raised after being spoiled for years in the Southern High Plains.