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Cant even get the pity flakes at the end. We are in a serious rut

Subsurface heat at 100-180W 0-300m down was pretty much unchanged from Oct-Nov. -0.47 in Nov, -0.41 Oct. Vastly smaller reservoir of cold water. We're on our third or fourth advisory level snow event for the high terrain locally. November was actually around 2x normal precipitation for the Northern half of the state, so the +6-8F temps didn't really matter at elevation. Still frigid above 8,000 ft on storm days. 14 inches of snow fell at Taos Powderhorn, 11,000 feet up, since Nov 17. They'll get 6-10 of dry power in all likelihood by Thursday morning. The resorts that get 200+ inches a year look like they're doing OK so far. For those who saw me include 2022-23 in the analog group at low weight - I do think there are some periods through April with extreme precipitation events in the SW, and that wasn't really present in 2024-25 or 2013-14. But they'll be much rarer than in that winter. But the one system in late November was pretty impressive for the moisture content.

Thank you so much for this post, and sorry for the confusing initial wording. This also helps clarify to me a how the arctic front theory of storm formation (while generally "wrong") can make some sense as I assume it comes from seeing the stretch between air masses as a line of vorticity that eventually spins up into a concentrated area to force surface low formation. Of course, it doesn't actually get into why that happens but it makes more sense regardless. If I read your post right in sensible terms we are in the best place for surface low development when we have a strong baroclinic boundary to our south (aids in convergence though my course didn't go too much in depth with it so I'll just accept a stronger temp gradient is better), a jet streak that is either positioned to the northwest (right entrance which I guess may be associated with a negatively tilted trough usually?) or a jet to our southeast (maybe more for broad bowl patterns?), and a condensed ball of vorticity (shortwave) to act as the initial perturbation in the system. I also know that 500mb low wise a sharper amplitude with shorter wavelength wave tends to increase vorticity though I don't actually know why (to be honest my ability to connect vorticity to low pressure is sketchy at best and I'd appreciate resources to find that connection). Additionally, If you have any websites to look at the upper air patterns for past storms I'd love to dive into that to see examples of this.

Horrible. Not even sure we’ve had a 6” event since then. Nearly 4 years

Yeah, just saw a great Xmas play put together by the Weathervane Theater. Roads are nasty though. Snowing quite heavily at home

In a way I am over sports gambling. I just absolutely despise all talking heads and opinion people on everything so polymarket at least gives me some semblance of information and helps me avoid the people I abhor. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Mountainview nice place Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Still peeling paint. Make it stop.

Backside snow. Ultimate kick in the balls after a 38F rainy day

Looking at the snowfall reports from last night. Nearly everyone that missed out over the weekend got some good coverage. Just about the entire sub, literally, has a halfway decent snowpack. When was the last time that happened? Its been a long time I bet when we can go across the lakes and the OH river and all points in between covered in snow, and not just dusted. And to kick off Dec. no less. Good stuff!

5.8” on the ground, pretty dense stuff.

Ohh. It looked like sarcasm to me. Oops lol

Definitely surprised how far north this made it. Had to go to Lancaster and even up there they had at least 5-6” of fresh snow. Still snowing at a good clip in Whitefield and at home

12z gfs showed warmth and now the 18z gefs flipped it .

I didn’t think he was being sarcastic. Snowenouthere has been dropping dimes lately, hopefully he keeps it up.

I'm definitely picking up ur sarcasm lol

I'm in that ballpark, I'll be going back out in a bit.

Added a couple more inches, somewhere between 5 and 6, Ill measure later.

I would like for the CEO of Kalshi to be Mangioned. I am so over betting and the markets.

Not really….it’s always track dependent. A good track, and the cold should be there/nearby.

St Johnsbury is somehow the current accumulation leader in New England with 8.6". I don't think a single model had anything close to that outcome

The streak continues…

Models can't initialize this storm to save their life. The hrrr is completely missing the big band over Northern Vermont. Pretty garbage model performance all around, from the medium to short terms

About 4.5”. I don’t do the ratio stuff but it is pretty fluffy. 22°

Temps look to be an issue