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Chicago NWS on Lake Effect There has not been much change in the recent guidance. High pressure will build across the northern Plains Thursday night into Friday as an upper level low moves across the local area Friday into Friday night. This will setup convergence over Lake Michigan with a band of lake effect snow developing Thursday night, possibly into northwest IN at first, then spreading west into far northeast IL Friday morning, then moving back east into northwest IN Friday evening and then possibly moving back into northeast IL Saturday morning. While these overall trends remain on track, the earliest snow would begin is still 48+ hours away and while lake effect is challenging, there can be even more uncertainty when its pointed into northeast IL. While it remains a bit early for specifics, if a lake effect band does develop, periods of heavy snow will be possible across far northwest IN and far northeast IL with several inches of snow possible.

Memorial Day is showing a threat of shwrs/stms. Possible some energy from the W may sneak along the boundary. But the pattern for late May actually looks rather cool, so it may get shunted south if it does move out. The weekend in general looks bookended with frontal activity.

We’re 16 pages in on a thread before the 3 day thread start rule

Yeah, I don’t think anyone in the Carolinas or NE and eastern Georgia is out of this yet. We’re still 3 1/2 days away. It’s going to feel like a lifetime too. .

It’s been mentioned several times.

Ehh idk about the next threat but if temps stay below normal we will have plenty of chances to get another storm. Odds are it won't be the 12+ big dog but I could still see another warning event.

got above freezing here - 32.4F

These guys do a good job. Nice write up here for the weekend To summarize… they are on board with a faster phase and a more western track https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/2016246272013832596?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .

Ok take this discussion elsewhere

Also does anyone find the modeling to be eerily striking to the Christmas storm of 2010?

Different setups but we watched a region wide overrunning setup turn into a mega miller b in like 2 runs last week at this range

I think that is good advice. I like the WPC because they don’t change their view in a haphazard way. I think eastern areas should still have a good sense of optimism. If we can get a little bit of a tick to the west or at least not lose any ground between now and Wednesday then, as you said the early Thursday model runs, will probably tell the tale.

20 miles west of Athens def still in game at this point

Mother's Day looks to be similar to May Day with a strong front moving through our sub.

What do you mean by "Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally"?

On May Day, look for a strong cold front moving through our sub. Shwrs/stms could get a bit squirrelly.

i thought so - but not so sure now. I guess we'll see what some of these reinforcing shots have.

I refuse to consider the NAM on Tuesday for Saturday. I won’t do it.

I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it. .

No they don't. They show 2 very different things. Vorticity (or Positive Vorticity Advection/PVA for our purposes with storms) shows rotation and lift in the atmosphere. This is caused by upper level level winds so the plots bear resemblance but they are not the same things at all. Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally while wind maps are basically 2 dimensional.

Sorry meant the vorticity map. Those maxes are far better at predicting where the energy is going.

Can we change the title of this thread to: It’s not coming 1/31-2/1 Please…. .

23” glorious inches in Chelsea. One of the best storms of my lifetime due to consistent heavy snow with no subsidence despite the poor snow growth for 75% of the storm

11.5 degrees currently with steady light to sometimes moderate snow. Windy as well. Looks like Old Forge, NY out there. Low gray overcast, deep snow cover and the air filled will falling and blowing snow. Gotta feel sorry for anyone who has had to work outside this month. Except for a several day pause in the cold earlier this month it has been brutal. December was no bargain for outdoor workers either.