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I haven't looked.

Have you read MRX 1am AFD..almost sounds like south of 40 in the valley will be lucky to get a WWA.

Now that we are in the final 24 hours, I have to step back and be objective here, I think the models don't handle the warm air layer well. WAA might be stronger than indicated causing a lot of the snow to become sleet as I remember this happening with one of our big winter storms just last year after the models went nuts with 12+ beforehand. Likely this will be an issue during the first wave until the cold air layer deepens. Especially areas further south and east of US60 and I-35. Might be best to take these totals and half them. With that being said the QPF is still holding steady if not increasing. Many may still see close to a foot of snow. Just my two cents.

Oh they will, but the damage has been done. In the past they have dug in and said so it was mostly sleet so what… see March 2017. At least this time we will go in knowing not to expect big snows. This crap will not be easy to clean and the ERs are gonna be busy. The biggest danger here is going to be for middle aged men.

Trust me I want the highest totals out of anybody lol, but reality is we have seen a warming trend, again we could be sitting here tomorrow night happier than a pig in shit, it could get worse as well. Hopefully we get the first rather than the latter. See you guys for 6z.

Probably meaningless, but the Euro says I should be 31 right now, I'm 26. The 18z HRRR that just initialized off last hour is close, showing me at 27 at this hour, but the HRRR two hours ago was 3-4 degrees warm looking out to 2am. I'm basically 4-5 degrees cooler than all other modeling.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some stay in the 30s today .

I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times.

From storm of the century in the media to 6-8… so when do we all end with a March 2017 situation….im never comfortable when sleet is on the table.

If it were falling on something already covered in snow, yes....the crystalline structure of the individual snowflakes changes the surface of the aforementioned curved object (branches, powerlines)...crystals have many edges and sharp angles that grab and hold, which is why they can stick to a curved surface Plus the cohesive and adhesive forces of water come into play, especially when the snow is slightly wet. Adhesive forces are what allow water molecules to stick to an object, and vice-versa; cohesion allows water molecules to stick to other water molecules With this in mind, sleet would definitely stick best to wet snow on branches or power lines

Keep in mind, these maps include sleet. It may start as brief snow, but predominant p-type in NC will likely be sleet.

also now one 2 models show it snowing in north md and south pa till like early afternoon mon a lot longer then before

That's absurd. Computer generated is fine but every 10 minutes? Gonna confuse people.

shhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

Jeb....what did you do????

Looks to be ahead of schedule by a bit. Temps are cooler for the forum as well it seems. .

I had someone ask me on FB when a realistic forecast would be posted? Responded "the day after it ends." Dissecting a model run is not forecasting. Maybe it is, with some better at it in accessing and describing. It's always been the lead time and not the event itself especially being afar.

FWIW LWX is also predicted a not-insignificant amount of ice accretion for the metros-SE

That area is in big trouble, could be devastating

Ice Storm Warning for NE Ga!

At least the closer to game time you get, the smaller the jumps will be. 36 hours out the you’re usually locked in on a likely solution give or take

Which means the delta between the two is how much they expect from 00z - 12z Monday.

When you guys have seen 18 and I’ve seen 5, that fired not EVER even out. There is nothing to wait for. It’s bad now, and will be bad For the Rest of tony unless all of you leave for 5 winters in a row and then come back.

Well said. When I worked at Naval Research and Development (DTNSRDC) in Carderock, Md. we had heavy duty computer power (4 Control Data Corp. mainframes plus one from Burroughs Corp.) The "software people" were the systems analysts who maintained the computers while the actual users (the "programmers,") were scientists and engineers who used FORTRAN's powerful mathematics simply as a tool of their trade.

Like I said, the “Expected Total: Official NWS Forecast” map is 100% computer generated. I think it runs every 10 min, iirc it was :02, :12 up in NWS BOX.