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It’s been rainy out this way since the early morning hours; nothing too heavy, just persistent.

Cloudy. Was hoping for a washout today

September 20 2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Freeborn and Faribault counties. 1972: A downpour in Duluth produces 5 1/2 inches in ten hours. For Sunday, September 20, 2026 1845 - A tornado traveled 275 miles across Lake Ontario, New York and Lake Champlain. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1909 - A large and deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana during the late evening hours. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi showed catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths and $265 million in damage 1926 - A hurricane which hit Miami, FL, on the 18th, pounded Pensacola with wind gusts to 152 mph. Winds raged in excess of 100 mph for four hours, and above 75 mph for 20 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah moved into South Texas, and torrential rains from the hurricane turned the rich agricultural areas of South Texas into a large lake. Hurricane Beulah also spawned a record 115 tornadoes. (David Ludlum) 1983 - The temperature at West Yellowstone MT plunged to six degrees below zero, while the temperature at San Francisco CA soared to 94 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and west Texas. In Oklahoma, a thunderstorm at Seiling produced three inches of rain in one hour, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts to 60 mph which collapsed a tent at the state fair injuring nine persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central Wyoming, and snow in some of the higher elevations. Casper WY reported 1.75 inches of rain in 24 hours, and a thunderstorm north of the Wild Horse Reservoir produced 1.90 inches of rain in just forty minutes. 1989 - Hugo jilted Iris. Hurricane Hugo churned toward the South Atlantic Coast, gradually regaining strength along the way. Tropical Storm Iris got too close to Hugo, and began to weaken. A cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the Great Basin and the Southern Plateau Region, with wind gusts to 44 mph reported at Kingman AZ. (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Hurricane Rita tracked through the Florida Straits and just south of the Florida Keys. Winds were sustained at tropical storm force at Key West, where peak winds gusted to 76 mph. Observances: 20 Sun National Pepperoni Pizza Day 20 Sun National Fried Rice Day 20 Sun National Queso Day 20 Sun Yom Kippur 20 Sun Wife Appreciation Day (National Wife Day) 20 Sun National Care For Kids Day 20 Sun National Crime and Intelligence Analyst Appreciation Day 20 Sun National Punch Day 20 Sun National String Cheese Day 20 Sun International NFT Day

I’ll say this. These things are really weird — look at the hugging face transcripts — and they seem to be capable of things like solving Millennium math problems. There’s no guarantee that they keep getting smarter or better able to affect the real world, but they’re already extremely good at hacking, and all the predictions about slowing down haven’t happened yet. Moreover, at a minimum, there are real worries that these things may be able to empower bad actors with respect to hacking or, significantly more serious, biowarfare. I would say the smart version of the argument is that this is a leap into the unknown, and nobody’s sure where it ends up. Saying p(doom) = .1 or whatever is just a way of expressing this uncertainty.

What is that feeling? I know what it's like when it's 85+ degrees with humidity and high dewpoints... this? I don't know what this is.

.30" so far.

OHC of 180-100W appears to currently be at its highest yet (~+3.3): To compare, look how low was the same point in Sept of 2023 (only ~+1): Highest 2023-4 ever got was only just over +1.5:

Steady moderate rain here all morning. Crap day 63 degrees

Fay is actually overperforming. NHC now saying it's going to be close to hurricane strength.

Soil is powder here. Just put some grass/clover seed down this morning and loosening the soil was a dust bowl. Put straw down and hit it with the hose and now its raining. Getting the tail end of that weakening line. Enough to at least keep the seed damp for a day lol.

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble.

yeah, i had a few below average days in winter 1998

Thankfully only .19 here thus far

51.8° -RA What a way to run the last weekend of summer.

When in doubt regarding the impact of CC, expect a generally warmer outcome with greater volatility. Certain trolls are only going to focus on the first part, which neglects the crucial second part which will make or break seasonal forecasts and dictate how a winter will be remembered.

Thats also my guess. Weaker goa/aleutian low, and I also wonder if it will be further west allowing for more -epo. But who really knows. I would expect the unexpected.

Thought about a thread too but will keep discussion here. I think a mod could always move these posts to a thread for posterity if Fay pulls off something crazy. It's a very narrow window but as y'all stated it's in one of where it can take off. That'd obviously be fantastic for my peak season forecast. Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 n mi. Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

it's not going to be all winter, it's going to be the majority of the winter.

We now have Fay, which breaks our tropical drought, albeit in a very weird part of the basin. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (3) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard, Fay Fay is actually doing more than holding its own after struggling yesterday, and the NHC has taken note, predicting it gets to 50kt (60mph). This is a good looking structure, and this one could be an overperformer. Obviously I have a rooting interest. But I want to take a few minutes to talk about some possible east coast action in the coming days. There's been a signal for a few days now for a coastal storm development pattern over then next two weeks. A signal has emerged for an area of low pressure to form off the east coast around midweek. Across guidance you see a similar theme--our low starts out a sprawling mess, but eventually consolidates into a pretty decent coastal storm. This is the 06z Euro And the surface result Now, it's important to note, I'm not talking about anything purely tropical here. This is more baroclinic than anything. But given the location of development, there may be some tropical influence making this a subtropical or hybrid low, and these can be very impactful storms. The GFS and AI guidance so far today have been more bullish on possible subtropical development. Regardless, this is the kind of low that could cause some legitimate issues, first with coastal flooding. Everything suggests that if something forms close enough to the coast it's going to meander and bring persistent onshore flow. That could lead to significant coastal flooding. Second, rainfall. Depending on where this tracks, areas could see significant rainfall. Finally, this looks to be a windy event, especially at the coast, due to the possible intensity of the storm and a pressure gradient. 06z GFS 06z Euro As I mentioned, the AI guidance has been even more bullish, at least for now, in developing a potent coastal. But they've favored areas northeast. Still, the onshore flow could cause issues up and down the coast. Bottom line is we do have something to track, for now at least. Intensity and track are still TBD, but there's a growing signal for some type of significant coastal storm in the coming days.

No one mentions this part...