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Happy Birthday, Canderson!!!

happy birthday Chris @canderson

Feels like Dagobah outside.

87/77/99 here. We just need some palm trees and we’d be set.

86/76

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

83/80/76 out. Went out long enough to turn on the sprinkler to water my grass seed. I am determined to get it going this time. Younger Ms. J went down to ride early to beat the heat hopefully. Would like to see some rain today but incase it does not I should be covered with the watering.

Pipe. Yes, they were probably overexcited, BUT violent tornadoes don't have to be wedges, AND there are numerous non-meteorological reasons the EF5 rating has become very difficult to have applied at an official level.

That is looking real good, if anything it will push east as we get closer, feel bad seeing all the complaining going on from those to the east of me.

I've tried finding some ENSO reconstruction studies via proxies and can't find anything pointing to something this large. Still looking though. Prob safe to say 150y at this point. Might be realistically as long as 1kyr or something like that. A few recent papers have pointed towards increasing ENSO variance and amplitude with continued warming: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate | Nature Communications (2022) And: Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Nature Communications (2025) Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away). The million dollar question, as @BlizzardWx points out, for this season is how far east the warm pool gets and how far east convection gets rooted into this winter. I think it may be as far east as 120W, given that we're already ahead of 1997 (which got to 140W). We're in such rarified air here, it's hard to tell.

All joking and ball-busting aside, I certainly see a pathway to a poor winter given the situation with ENSO....and to steal a page from CPC, it's definitely more likely that snowfall will below average than above, however, I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that it will be poor...and yes, I'll spend the better part of the next 3 months of my life explaining why. As far as temps go, it will almost certainly be above average...I think the floor is near normal, like 1957. Crazy how that same area from MBY into se NH has been a screw-zone for QPF this decade...that has been so consistent.

August 6 1969: Tornadoes sweep across northern Minnesota, hitting Ely, Backus, Outing and Dark Lake. Damage could still be seen 20 years later in the BWCA. 1866: Torrential rain dumps 10.30 inches at Sibley in 24 hours. Widespread flooding occurs, washing out bridges and drowning many people. In Fillmore County it is known as the 'Wisel Flood' because 3 members of the Wisel family perished in the flood. For Thursday, August 6, 2026 1890 - Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair County and Union County in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds, and in some places remained on the ground for twenty- six days. (The Weather Channel) (Note: WOW!) 1918 - Unusually hot weather began to overspread the Atlantic Coast States, from the Carolinas to southern New England. The temperature soared to an all-time record high of 106 degrees at Washington D.C., and Cumberland and Keedysville hit 109 degrees to establish a state record for Maryland. Temperatures were above normal east of the Rockies that month, with readings much above normal in the Lower Missouri Valley. Omaha NE reached 110 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1959 - A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County IA. The total was accepted as Iowa's 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Winner SD damaging two hundred homes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms deluged Milwaukee, WI, with 6.84 inches of rain, including more than five inches in two hours, breaking all previous rainfall records for the city. Floodwaters were four feet deep at the Milwaukee County Stadium, and floodwaters filled the basement of the main terminal at the airport. Flooding caused 5.9 million dollars damage, and claimed the life of one person. Death Valley, CA, reported a morning low of 97 degrees. A midday thunderstorm deluged Birmingham AL with nearly six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Livingston MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwestern Texas to the Southern Appalachians, and in the northeastern U.S. There were 136 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the day and evening. Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region produced tennis ball size hail northwest of Buffalo OK, and wind gusts to 100 mph at Pampa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 6 Thu Hiroshima Day 6 Thu Balloons to Heaven Day 6 Thu Farmworker Appreciation Day 6 Thu National Fresh Breath Day 6 Thu National Wiggle Your Toes Day 6 Thu Sailor Moon Day 6 Thu Finish Your Degree Day 6 Thu National Root Beer Float Day

Not sure, but you reminded me the new drought monitor is out. Still abnormally dry for BDL, but at least after 20” of rain the S coast isn’t dry anymore.

How would CPC answer this? More likely than not?

Are we going to have to got through another fall of you injecting your winter predictions in every conflicting post you see?

barry always gets the goods, chicago legend

snowman got too worked up over these people and let them get to him. It’s more fun to talk about warm anomalies and trigger them. Gotta roll with it. And the cool thing about it is we get brand new maps with red everywhere every other month, so I am constantly supplied with new material.

This isn't bad for D3. I'm not huge into these products but assessing everything you can see the potential is there and when you supplement with this product its certainly a real signal.

Yeah Saturday was the day, hopefully a few storms in a season devoid of them

gotta keep posting

this place became a climate change cope board about 10 years ago and most of the good posters left

I’m concerned about our source regions this winter. I think it may be really hard for Canada to not be torching but I hope I’m wrong.