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Ill have to check it out. Anything's better than Direct Weather guy. I just checked that channel since about a year ago and looking at his recently thumbnails make me want to throw up.

It’s snowing here

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

Euro has it too May have to set the alarm for an hour and half sleep to see the squall

I think a valuable lesson sometimes I forget too is regardless of the pattern modeled, if there is an outlier amongst the big three ensembles, you can't just toss it, regardless of model biases. The GEFS never really bit on the mega west based block, we assumed it would trend towards the EPS as it usually does, however the opposite ended up being true. When a highly anomalous pattern is modeled, we need to see all three major ensembles on board for a few days for me to believe it.

OP Euro today is kind of weak sauce on warmup as well. Not as much as Skynet....it does get pretty mild for a couple days, but no torching cutters....the 1/10 system bombs into the lakes but is more like a SWFE with snow/ice in CNE/NNE....SNE might be mixed to 35F rain in that scenario. But it just shows there's a lot of uncertainty even in a mild-ish longwave pattern. Early January is a good time to try and get away with a warmer longwave pattern.

Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess

Absolutely lol. We're having a good time up here at snow camp. We just got nuked by a intense band. Heaviest snow I've ever seen. We got about 2 feet in the past 4 hours lol. I'll never look at snow in the lowlands the same ever again. I'm pretty sure I'm buying a house up here to live in during winter. The economy around here depends on it. There's endless snowmobile trails. It's heaven.

Yes for sure. Can’t trust anything out there in the medium even. And the long range, flip a coin maybe .

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

I dunno tomorrow will be windy with a nasty squall potential in the early morning

0.3" of snow then some freezing drizzle. Second round of snow this afternoon/evening looks better. We are nickel and diming like a boss so far this winter lol.

NAM info: Just an fyi... from a valuable NWS resource: I have paraphrased recent probable changes. The NAM, for all of its issues, tends to have better forecasts of both low-level cold air and vertical profiles for these winter cases. The eventual (could still be 2026) replacement for the NAM will be the RRFS and the RRFS ensemble (which will replace the HREF). Anecdotally, the RRFS seems to provide decent guidance for winter weather elements, but there will be a more intensive look at this during this season's Winter Weather Experiment. I'll close the Dec 2025 thread Friday... I think the stratwarm probably had a favorable wintry impact here in the northeast USA though I never know for certain. Researchers can conclude via their postmortem.

The medium to long range skepticism cuts both ways for me. While the bias has been toward too much punching up warmth, we have to watch those exotic cold/favorable solutions too. Models just seem a step above rudderless imo.

Said that last night..guy is good-the real deal.

Maybe the SW flow upslope spots (like Ditty) can squeeze out 0.5-1.0” more. There’s some decent lift in the DGZ, albeit brief, and with lower QPF it’s easier to stack 20:1 versus higher amounts (weight/compaction), but I’m not sure I’d be throwing out over 3” outside of the Cape/Maine.

NAM has it too an hour slower

Here we go…been the tenor.

Arrival time if it makes it is approx 5am

Here is the 12z Euro d10-15 pattern. The noticeable difference is Alaska. That Bering Straits low floods Canada with Pacific air. While it does have precedent, I think that feature is likely wrong. Get that our of there, and it is the GFS 12z run. IMPORTANT: What we are seeing(and this is under way even today) is a retrograding of the eastern North American ridge into the eastern Pacific. How long does it stay there? IDK. It could keep retrograding. But it is wild to watch the ridge get knocked down, and then "resurface" further west. How that ridge retrogrades is going to be key. A retrograding pattern has often been good to us regarding winter weather.

Rinsed

Thankfully you’ve been wrong all winter

You wonder if anyone does

ya funny thing is after trending for days to a massive west based block, we all knew the second it lost it , it wasn't coming back..

Hrrr has a wicked little squall line at...............5am Starting off the year with early morning snow