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It ain’t over. I didn’t hear no bell.

Seems like the general trend across guidance today is the push back of the cold air next week quicker and stronger against that ridging.

It was that here earlier today before it switched to snow. The clear ice from the rain and snow is now white again, any even my vehicle, which had been warm from driving is covered again. What is your surface temp?

There are a lot of boat owners, a marina, and an insurance agent having a very bad day……

Don't you love that purple over our back yards? Lol

February 4, 2018

Who TF said the AIFS lost interest? It’s was the strongest signal across all the 12z guidance. mean more importantly the median is improving

Depends on who we're talking about.

DRY HERE

I think that was Heisy. I was in MD driving all around the beltway down I83 instead of the west side of the Beltway thanks to an accident that closed the west side for 4hrs+. Effers!

All the models have that lead wave but it’s been mostly weak and way north so we weren’t paying attention. But given the seasonal trend it could shift south. And it will impact what happens after so we should pay attention.

It has been suggestive of a wave or 2 between the 9th and 12th on recent runs. There is some decent vorticity being puked out from the upper low digging south along the west coast of Canada and riding overtop the de-amplifying ridge as it shifts eastward. Also some energy ejecting eastward from the SW. Wouldn't it be something if there was enough interaction as those pieces head east to make something happen before the window we are focused on lol.

For sure!

Sat may be the coldest day so far this winter (real feel) with the wind and temp...

There ended up a few days of +10 between the 8th and 15th, just nothing high end. We wedged through anything substantial. There was a stretch in late dec when the weeklies flopped warmer and there were alot of cancel winter calls. I Remember scott coming back from the tropics ready to drive into the harbor.

Extreme warmth is spreading through BC, Alberta and the PAC NW. Temps in low 70s on the Oregon coast with sunshine, easterly breezes. Near 60F around Vancouver and Seattle. Also into high 60s and low 70s in chinook zones of s Alberta and e/c Montana. Nearly 50F here with sun poking through strato-cumulus ragged overcast with a base just above our elevation of 3300' asl. Needless to say this is finishing off what little snow is still on the ground in town, will probably survive around the ski hills. It has been snow-free for days now at lower elevations than the town, down into Columbia valley. Still a lot of cloud in e/c WA so not warming up as fast yet there. Spring fever, have seen a few younger people dressed like it was late April roaming the streets. In some cases you rather wish they wouldn't.

IIRC there were a few unbelievable OP runs showing a day or two supporting 70° and then the models obviously backed off from that. But then there was the windshield wiper effect where some didn’t think we were going above the 30s and it ended up being a week well into the 40s.

No PDIII on the GFS..but hey, we got a thing or two to track.

I was mistaken earlier about the run of days below freezing, on 1/22 I hit 42... however avg for January is 30.1°, and ytd is 29.9°, all days, including the warm in Jan, never got above 44°, and 1/25 almost got out of the single digits while dumping snow, pretty impressive temp run here... I honestly don't know what the average monthly temperature is here, i never finished that, but I'd bet it's maybe top 10 coldest January here anyway... looks to continue for another week at least, hopefully ending with a big dog and then I'm about ready for warm, this weather is killing my vehicles.

Sounds gnarly We issued a winter storm watch for Cambria and Somerset Counties (in coordination with LWX/PBZ) to highlight the potential for near blizzard conditions and significant travel disruptions with up to 6" of snow and 40-50 mph winds. SNSQ parameter signal is weak, but snow squalls are possible with the arctic fropa.

27F Peace Valley Park (FB Jan 31st)

39/36, .12" in the bucket.

Was shit job everywhere.

I guess the hurricane hunters dropped in some new data points out in the Pacific.