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Nam has higher heights over us, but the PV lobe is a bit east which is the opposite of what you would want.

What’s that statement……”Upper level low, weatherman’s woe”? .

I think 12z is also just faster.

Here' the forecast assessment for the Boxing Day Blizzard: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf

Comparing it more now around hr 54, while the heights are better the axis point of the trough orientation is the same but sped up some, so i'm not so sure it's going to dig and turn more, which i'm sure most would be happy with around these neck of the woods (no north movement).

There’s another board?

Yeah…i mean I’d love for that low to track from interior NC to inside the BM, lol…but that’s not happening in this setup.

Well, whatever we get will be on top this ice

I was telling a story about the King winter of 2013-14 to someone, and it reminded me that it was the only time in my life i was ever scared of snow, albeit briefly. It was mid-late Feb and the snow depth approached 2 feet with huge drifts. I was in a hilly, drift-prone area not far from DTW, so of course, I wanted to play around and see how high some of the drifts are. When walking in deep snow, its best to KNOW your area, which I did not. So there I am, with my 40" snow stick getting a kick out of sticking it all the way in without hitting bottom (first time id ever done that), then I fell into chest deep snow. Those drifts are hardpacked. I couldnt move my arms to get out. After brief panic i started wiggling fingers to loosen the snow and as it loosened, i was eventually able to tunnel enough snow to get out of the drift. Absolutely wild. I walk in extremely deep snow every year up north, but never had an experience of falling into packed powder to my chest. There will be harsh winters (this has happily turned into one), but there will never be another 2013-14.

Idk Randy.. think you might be right man.. heights are def better but the western edge is simply quicker to move south not so much more west or southwest.

https://x.com/i/status/2016518663214403809

I don’t really trust NAM at the range we’re getting to, but watching trends is important. If it’s on board too, it’s still a positive .

A funny story. They have done a terrible job clearing our roads in my neighborhood. Yesterday we didn't get mail delivered because mailman said he couldn't get to mailboxes. Basically a car and a half could fit on the road instead of 2 cars. He delivered to a couple houses on my road but not mine. When mine was clear as could be. Well late yesterday afternoon, a plow came, must have been in response to mail issue, and opened up the street and mailbox access more. As he did that he plowed snow back onto the front of people driveways. I cleared mine as soon as he came because I knew the slop would refreeze into ice blocks. I just looked out and saw my neighbor with his snowblower to clear the plowed in snow. Well he tried but it was too frozen and then had to use a shovel. As he started he walked over towards his mailbox and shot the finger at it. I'm sure he wasn't expecting anyone to see that but I am sure that is a lot of peoples reaction to the snow...

I had made mention i think yesterday of something similar to this, If we could start the process a bit further west even if it digs we could get the slp to start west before it starts to gain latitude.

Yep

NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!

I remember when he saw no shadow in 2013…I think we had like 75” of snow after that point. The smart pick though is for him to see his shadow. He sees it most years.

A few positives and negatives. Should be west from 6z IMO but east of 0z. higher height rise in front, more amplified western ridge, but ULL not pushing as far west before swinging.

Brick has been posting on the other board the last couple of days.....keeping the mojo here

Yessir- was just looking at the same thing....verbatim textbook setup for snow in E Upstate/CLT and pts N and E....I am more confident after the storm was sampled

Yeah but they’re certified weather experts.

Yes.

Sunday night Cape Cod Bay 16' waves NE at 10 seconds ... that's some S Shore damage

maybe they used the wrong product to communicate what they meant Or they just aren't very bright. Let's go with the latter

Anything to trend it north is a good thing.