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It’s stuck on Pivotal. Only saw what Chief Wiggum posted.

Starting to get some light flurries blowing around currently. 36.9

And our dumba$$ offensive coordinator who eats crayons.

Don't need to look....just see who reports it, unless it's someone like Will or Scott...

Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how.

Who really cares though? It's to melt the clock rather than yardage. And you know Barkley, he could break one at any time. That game was on coaching, not players...

It did lol

Fucking euro. Will end up Kali Mah here.

Don’t do it

The GEFS is insistent on putting a huge 500dm vortex right over Alaska the 2nd week of December. Several runs in a row now

Yep, and ironically it'll be the very first measurable snowfall of 25-26 there lol. Have had 0.3" here.

There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it.

Must have trended se if you posted it.

Everything has some utility if weighted properly and used in the correct context.

12z euro

No need to look at a whole bunch of other factors. With that high severely misplaced, we are in trouble

Chicago bottom third against the run. More of a reason to run barkley like 25 plus times...

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

Yeah, I noticed IWX has been pretty hesitant to use their NDFD output until recently! And wouldn't you know it, 12 ECMWF came in wetter/snowier, and in better alignment with the rest. Right now, I'm going to wait for the 18z NAM/HRRR to come in before making drastic changes, but my team is struggling with whether we want to keep things the same or up the totals since the consensus has been overwhelmingly snowy for most. My argument against is compaction, which could give off the impression we were dead wrong lol! Also, I'll be curious to know how well the NBM does when all is said and done. It has hardly budged over the past 48 hours

Must be nice. Lol. Y'all really get spoiled up there. Can't tell you last time we got double digits snow here.

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. Edit: @40/70 Benchmark nails it. There's a lot out here already. I basically use most models as ensembles at this point.

I largely ignore it and treat as an ensemble member...too much data as is.

Agreed. While it's possible the Newburgh waterfront on the Hudson is a slushy 33F vs. 32F and accumulating snow at Stewart airport, the model soundings say elevation along the transition zone might only matter in terms of rain vs. ZR.

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing".

Indeed, after doing poorly with phase 6, the EPS absolutely was doing much better than GEFS getting into phase 7 between the 11/15 and 11/18 runs: 11/15 EPS: poor for 6; much better for getting into 7 11/15 GEFS: great for 6 but bad for getting into 7 (way too slow as 7 actually started on 11/27): Similar comparisons for 11/17-8 runs: 11/17 EPS: almost spot on with 11/27 ph 7 timing: 11/17 GEFS: still not in 7 on 12/1 11/18 EPS: great with ph 7 11/18 GEFS: not into phase 7 til 12/2, 5 days too late Edit: 12Z GEFS coming in significantly colder than prior runs