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Guidance is hot dry garbage

Chilly start. 52° at Worcester and lots of 40s out hippie way.

WF staying south of the lake always a good bet

56 imby. 32 at canaan nwr.

Electric in my backyard last night, doing the shimmering/flickering deal. Everyone should leave some high grass and leaf piles in a few patches to give them a fighting chance. I'm just a few blocks from the asphalt and concrete canyons of downtown silver spring... But I have many lightning bugs

Just got done reading all the hype on Facebook lol. I just want rain. I don't care about severe. Hopefully that happens.

“Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making[emoji409][emoji91] Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event. According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History[emoji91] Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below- 1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c. This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events) 2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months[emoji3062][emoji409]”

A crisp 51 when I left the house. A+ day on tap. Onward.

51.6F this morning in Lanco. Very refreshing. .

Guidance is hot garbage for Thursday.

I have shed the shorts and short sleeve for sweats and long sleeve flannel! What a beautiful early fall morning!! 44.7 at 6:10. Staunton record low for June 16 was 43 in 1961. Charlottesville from the same air mass 48 in 1961. D.C. record was 50 in 1917. Va. Tech Canaan report at 6:10 was 34.7.

Yes thank you! It had that rotation the whole time it cross York County with no warning on it until it was east of Stewartstown

A current morning low of 52 degrees in mid June! Absolutely stunning.

46 here also.

46.2 at 5:30 this morning...

Heaven was visited yesterday Weekapaug Block Island today

June 1st

Going to be a huge day for them tomorrow.. hoping some of the fun can make it to the Jersey coast!!

Also, the RRFS apparently can "see" intense mesocyclones! Look at the 972 mb "low" in nrn IN 01z Thu!

For Thu... I am impressed w/ the very strong WAA early on Thu in the NEUS. Atypical for summer. That looks to produce some sig tstms in itself. Thu afternoon is tricky b/c CAPE is lacking, but the shear is through the roof, as high as 85 kt 0-6 km and 45 kt 0-1 km. I can't think of any event in the last several decades w/ warm sector shear so high here this time of year when a strong sfc low passes just to our N. The 00z RRFS show a number of discrete storms Thu aftn w/ CAPE as high as 1150 in spots. I know the RRFS can get carried away and I don't have a good feel for it yet, but overall given the existing anomalies for the wind fields, I am quite concerned. I don't like that the sfc low is lifting/weakening as it moves across srn Quebec, but that may not matter in the end? Given such setups as so rare here, using the very limited past analogs we have for sig tor events in the NEUS, we don't really know the full spectrum or what can happen here b/c of that rarity in itself! I can honestly say I do not have a good forecast "feel" for this upcoming event in the NEUS b/c of the low CAPE, otherwise, it would be easy. It looks really nasty for the Midwest Wed -- off the charts for parameters. So how will that translate E? Not just in the NEUS, but in the Mid-Atlantic. Not every high-end svr event in the Great Lakes/OH Valley/Midwest this time of year ends up being big the next day to the E. I say "this time of year" b/c in the cool season, it is rare by default. In the NEUS, everyone often thinks of the June 8-9, 1953 outbreak sequence, but it doesn't always work like that. SPC DY3 outlook seems to focus on straight-line winds. That does seems more likely given the very fast storm motions and wind fields.

Main uncertainty being the placement of the warm front and antecedent convection.

Yup, Southeast ETN has been getting a few soakers the past few days. Finally had a good sunset today after a weeks worth of dreary clouds. This is facing your neck of the woods. .

Nice. D2 Moderate.

"Just give me 90, dews, and the beach." Incorrect, it should say, "just give me S+, S+, and S+!"

Crofton MD MB 6/11 (I think). Video never can capture the roar of the wind well, at least not the same as actually being there! https://www.facebook.com/reel/1658094618796584