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soils so dry and snowpack so non-existent that I suspect the monsoon season just leads to more fires via lightning strikes from dry storms

Such ridges are uncommon in the Eastern U.S. No disagreement on the location of such a ridge.

Immensely complicated question... The simplest explanation may cross eyes but ... no, it doesn't directly effect that, but does indirectly. lol Typhoons out there have a correlation with winter pattern that is more realized than in the summer. So there's a seasonal constraint on the statistics. In the winter, ... typhoons the "re curve" into the N. Pacific, dump their latent heat into the jet and this curls into the mid Pac ridge, which then can serve to augment that amplitude, and it then has an effect on the orientation of the planetary wave spacing down stream of North America. That's the simplest way to put it. If the typhoon does not re curve and goes into the SE Asian continent, it's less clear if/how it's latent heat fluxes into the mid latitude. It's like smearing toxin on one's skin as opposed to a sting that injects the venom directly in as a creepy metaphor. The latter, re curving into the jet/N. Pacific sting, thus makes sense that a more coherent effect on the synoptics is observed. The subtropical jets are indirectly related to all this, by way of complex larger scale wave mechanics. Leave it at that...but when the N Pac ridge is bulging, that tends to improve the polar branch/-EPO phase... this tends to trigger a compensating lowering height field underneath and that can assist sub-tropical jet identity. There has to be a split in the hemisphere gradients for better STJ performance, in general. Where there are two differential axis ( latitudes), steep zone near 30-35N, and then another near the lower Ferrel latitudes. The subtropical jet formulates along the gradient of the 30-35 N, and then runs up polarward to deliver WAA patterns into mid latitude cyclongenetic fields. ... Whilst the polar branch of the westerlies ( what we consider to be the main kahuna jet) formulates along the other steeper gradient of the lower Ferrel... In the heart of winter that's average around 45 or 50 N. But dips, and when it does ...these split hemispheres create the bigger bombs. That's why NINO hemisphere winters, albeit not always as cold as winter geese prefer, tend to generate the more active/higher frequency cyclone traffic. This whole model, however, is getting harder and harder to cleanly differentiate in observation, as the ongoing CC is also altering circulation manifolds. We've seen NINO-esque circulation motifs during NINAs and vice versa, do to these changes, with more frequency. This is making the distinctions less clean ... and consequently, some aberrant pattern correlations have been observed.

96 here

10:30am and we have our first couple of mesonet sites hitting 110 HI.

96/74 HI 108 at my station in Sheepshead Bay on a NW wind

Thanks Don Do you have Aug, 9 . 2001 11, 12 temps for ewr?

95 here Stay cool

My guess is NYC will fail to reach 100 both days but may get a 99

Jul 22 , 2001 Upper air maps

Yea the RRFS may be a formula for better future CAMs. I still like the HRRR because it shows what would happen if we overmix by some chance, almost like a goalpost kind of scenario.

Thanks, Don. I’ll reiterate that I was referring to only E US rather than all of the U.S. mean temps (especially in July) and that I didn’t even consider 2023 because it was only borderline moderate/strong on a RONI basis with a peak of only +1.49. So, 2015, with its heatwave in the Pacific NW (nowhere close to the E US) and 2023 not being nearly strong enough to count as super-Nino per the now official (per NOAA) RONI basis don’t even count for me against super El Niño E US heat. And even if 2023 were counted, its heat was most concentrated in the SW/SC rather than E US.

July 2 1989: Softball sized hail falls near Dorset, and baseball sized hail is reported at Nevis in Hubbard County. 1972: A low of 32 is recorded at Big Falls in Koochiching County. For Thursday, July 2, 2026 1833 - An unusually large New England tornado, one half to three quarters of a mile wide, went from Salem Pond to Norton Pond, VT, and then into Canada. It prostrated nearly everything in its path. (The Weather Channel) 1843 - An alligator reportedly fell from the sky onto Anson Street in Charleston, SC, during a thunderstorm. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Colorado produced hail as large as golf balls northwest of Kiowa, which accumulated to a depth of twelve inches. Hail two and a half inches in diameter was reported at Black Forest. Hail damaged 900 acres of crops south of the town of Wiggins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 47 degrees at Roanoke, VA, broke the July record set the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S., with 158 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Evening thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced softball size hail which caused more than five million dollars damage at Allen, and wind gusts to 90 mph at Dallas, which injured eight persons and caused seven million dollars damage. Winnfield LA reported 29.52 inches of rain in six days, for a total of 62.50 inches for the first six months of the year. Midland, TX, reported an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 2 Thu National Wildland Firefighter Day 2 Thu I Forgot Day 2 Thu Civil Rights Act 2 Thu Made In The USA Day 2 Thu National Anisette Day 2 Thu National Disco Day 2 Thu National Lint Awareness Day 2 Thu National Report Military Fraud Day 2 Thu Special Recreation for the Disabled Day 2 Thu World Sports Journalists Day 2 Thu Freedom From Fear of Speaking Day 2 Thu World UFO Day

Thanks, but it’s early. I think @MN Transplant has the definite advantage going forward, but the rest of us scrubs can still battle for individual airport titles.

Pretty significant improvement in the east, D2 Dropped from 90 to 80% mostly because of coastal improvements

Day 1 has slight risk for all of middle tn and surrounding states north Alabama and Georgia north east Mississippi followed by a marginal risk for parts of west central mississippi central Alabama and Georgia the Carolinas somewhat majority of Kentucky parts of Virgina southern Illinois and Indiana Missouri and Arkansas for 5% 15% 30% non hatched for damaging wind and also 5% non hatched hail .

Jeez its already 95 here in Brooklyn. Air conditioners going full blast inside my house.

They could really use a strong monsoon flow through the 4 corners area this year. Impressive local wx tho.

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Today will be our hottest day with the possibility that many lower spots touch 100 degrees and could approach the record for the day of 103 degrees set way back in 1901 at Coatesville 1SW at 103 degrees. We have not set a record high in the month of July since back on July 24, 2016 when a record of 100 degrees was set at Phoenixville 1E. The heat continues through the weekend but with shower chances steadily increasing by later July 4th through the day on Monday. Temperatures will fall back to near normal by Tuesday and back to below normal temperatures by Wednesday.

Already disgusting. That dew point!

Today will be our hottest day with the possibility that many lower spots touch 100 degrees and could approach the record for the day of 103 degrees set way back in 1901 at Coatesville 1SW at 103 degrees. We have not set a record high in the month of July since back on July 24, 2016 when a record of 100 degrees was set at Phoenixville 1E. The heat continues through the weekend but with shower chances steadily increasing by later July 4th through the day on Monday. Temperatures will fall back to near normal by Tuesday and back to below normal temperatures by Wednesday.

One good thing that I'm seeing is that the new RRFS seems to be handling this a lot better than the HRRR. The HRRR is out of control with mixing out the boundary layer, with places like Fredericksburg with something like 108/55 tomorrow. Conversely, the RRFS is a reasonable 102/69 for tomorrow.

Unfortunately, that sensor is too close to the building. It's probably just 15-20 feet from the building. In general, its distance should be 4X the building's height.

Tomorrow night could be really fun, could even be more fun if that EML wasn't shunting to our southwest