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@Eskimo Joe already calling for extreme heat risk by LWX in this afternoon AFD KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant heat risk next week heading into the Independence Day holiday. Increased confidence for a prolonged period of extreme heat and humidity starting Tuesday, June 30th and lasting through the Independence Day July 4th holiday weekend. Synoptically, subtropical high pressure and a building upper-level ridge will allow temperatures and humidity values to climb toward record levels over a multi-day period mid to late next week. Temperatures start to climb Tuesday as the upper-level ridge expands eastward from the Ohio River Valley. Look for highs in the 90s with heat indices running between 95-100 degrees. Wednesday through Sunday will be the peak of the dangerous heat with highs for most in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Heat indices each afternoon will run between 102-108 degrees with a few readings around 110 along the immediate I-95 metro corridor, western shore of the bay/southern MD, and down across the VA Piedmont region. Minimal relief is expected across the mountains with highs in the mid 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s as the heat peaks mid to late week. No relief at night either with widespread lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s (upper 70s-80 urban areas) Wednesday through Saturday. With that said, looking at major to extreme heat risk across the region during this period. Heat headlines will likely be needed and evaluated as the event gets closer. More at weather.gov/lwx/heat. Model guidance (00z, 06z, and 12z) has come into better alignment in regards to temperatures next week with only a few degrees of spread. On the other side of the spectrum, some uncertainty remains in regards to storm chances given the placement of boundaries and any waves of low pressure that may clear away the heat. The ridge looks to sit just west of the region if not overhead Tuesday before shunting eastward late week into the weekend. This would keep storm chances suppressed across most of the region outside of the mountains Tuesday through Thursday given the lack of any real forcing mechanisms outside the terrain or perhaps bay/river breezes. This changes Thursday through the weekend where storm chances may be amplified given a few pieces of energy pivoting over the top of the upper-level ridge in west to northwest flow. With excessive heat and humidity there will be plenty of instability to work with. You combine this with any potential ripples of low pressure moving around the ridge or a bay/river breeze to get convective development. This is illustrated by CSU/CIPS/NSSL (15-40 percent probabilities) outlooks along with Google WxNext AI model which suggest the risk for severe weather during the Thursday July 2nd to Saturday July 4th timeframe. Something we`ll continue to monitor in subsequent forecast shifts given all the ongoing outdoor activities across the region. Historically, near record summer heat often ends with widespread strong thunderstorm activity, and latest guidance starts to break down the heat next weekend (July 4) into early next week.

lol that was a dig at you. There's something lacking when a poster is known only for applying excessive weenie emotes. I did suggest maybe try harder to become more productive. Again, carry on.

06z Euro has afternoon air temperatures of 100 degrees for even the mountains. Even the 12z GFS lights everyone up. Impressive, but we're still a day or two out before this gets into the short range.

It's a SW ejection, yup. Sonoran or New Mexico, just labeling but by convention this is a SW Heat Release ... you can trace the air mass back and see that. I can see why the Euro has some convection overnight, Wed night, because there's undoubtedly a bit of (thus) EML over top.

was this a Sonoran release ... huh

Jesus, the 850s are 23 to 25C on the Euro too. wtf

Another .3" here on Thursday.

What we need is the designation of basin wide east based Nino. lol

Thu is hot on it too. Hopefully they didn’t ruin 2m on that model too. 850s are torched.

So, the Euro has 3 consecutive days of 98-103F from interior NJ to SE NH, Thu-Sat. It's interesting that the GFS goes full tilt on Wed, then backs off from there on out, whereas the Euro maxes later. I dunno. I'm with Brian on those crazier numbers on Wednesday. I see that this synoptically/circumstantially will be quite hot, but I think it plays a bit into the GFS tall BL tendency - maybe giving us a false sort of synergy there. If we're still hitting these number in the guidance tomorrow, we'll see.

Thankful for the storm that just passed. Just 0.12” but felt like a normal summer afternoon with a few claps of thunder and temps back down to 80. Humidity cometh

Heavy popup over me just started!

Euro hints at nocturnal convection overnight Wednesday ... that'll pube the heat back if that happens but overall, the ridge integral is slightly more massive in totality Wed-Fri. amazing. Friday's just nuts. But again...these 2-m products are heh

These designations aren’t black and white/official. I like to look at the differences. For ex., I’d call a +3.0 in both Nino 1+2/3 and a +1.0 in 4 E based. But I’d call a 0 in Nino 1+2/3 and a +0.8 in Nino 4 Modoki.

By offering little substance and instead opting for an ad hominem. Exhibit A:

Interesting. .

Elliott isn't convinced. He said there is a lot of uncertainty regarding where the heat dome sets up - we could see record heat but we just as easily could see temps in the low 90s.

My larger concern is MC competition a la 2023 versus how strongly east-based it is.

June 2026 in France and much of Europe isn't merely "hot." Hot is a beach day, lemonade, and open windows. This is different. Stoked by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases, the air is seemingly breathing fire in one's face. The shade is failing to offer much relief. Today, France saw additional all-time records. The Czech Republic, Denmark, and Germany set all-time national records.

Good rains in this part of southwest Morris; hopefully cushions the impacts from the coming torch.

I am willing to concede that the seasonal mean is going to more closely resemble the east-based composite given the shear magnitude of anomalies throughout the basin, but I think there is enough going on to the west to ensure window(s) of opportunity as climo grows more favorable.

These are progging 4 to get way up to +2.4 to +2.5, which is way higher than the record high of only +1.5 (‘23-4), +1.4 (‘15-6), +1.2 (‘09-10), +1.1 (‘68-9), +1.0 (‘18-9). Even the relatives for ‘26 on CFS/Euro are way up at ~+2.0! ‘97-8 and ‘82-3 were only +0.7! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

It reminds me of the one the models all had earlier this month. The models and the forecast had several days in the mid 90s here just a few days before and we ended up in the low 80s with some of those days in the 70s. That was actually a huge heat bust. Let's see if this one comes to fruition.

Ian whats up???

850s are probably 1-2C overdone since it’s mixing above that level. Still, MEX has b2b 100s at LGA, 102 at BDL, and 101 at FIT. This is BOS metro Wed afternoon. I think it will mix out some with weak W flow, but I don’t think it’s exotic enough to pull off exotic records. I’m leaning 98-100 in the hot spots for now. Maybe someone gets a lucky 101°. Mid 60s afternoon dews with low 70s with the evening and morning spikes