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Looks like it's done 6z

Lets get that coastal going at 78

Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 TNZ005>011-023>034-057-059>066-075-077>080-095-230900- /O.UPG.KOHX.WS.A.0001.260124T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Hickman-Williamson-Maury-Marshall- Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-Warren- Grundy-Van Buren-Giles- Including the cities of Nashville, Gordonsville, Livingston, New Johnsonville, Dickson, Mount Juliet, Jamestown, Spencer, Franklin, Gallatin, Byrdstown, Hendersonville, South Carthage, Allardt, Sparta, Murfreesboro, Pulaski, Erin, Brentwood, La Vergne, Gainesboro, Altamont, Smithville, Tennessee Ridge, McEwen, Smyrna, Coalmont, Kingston Springs, Shelbyville, Lafayette, Celina, Columbia, Ashland City, Manchester, Waverly, Dover, Clarksville, Carthage, Woodbury, Springfield, Crossville, Lewisburg, Lebanon, Tullahoma, McMinnville, Goodlettsville, Cookeville, Hartsville, and Centerville 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter inch.

12 EURO coming in a bit faster with the precip at HR51.

I dont think you have to worry about that. I think 6+ is a lock for everyone. The cold with this is legit. Gonna take some time to scour it out.

Euro just folded like a cheap suit on CAD strength. Welcome to Sleetmaggedon 2026 my NC brethren! .

It's gonna snow.

Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run

12z Euro still a big hit, I don't know why its doing this though, But for the last few days, When it gets to hr84, It jumps to hr96 or so/

Even the 10:1 ratio map looks awesome!

people were jonesing for a big daddy and we aren't getting one, barring some miracle, and now they are not going to be happy with more normal amounts. 6 of snow with sleet on top is just barely above run of the mill; even 10 is not the apocalypse some people want. but think back to last year, or other years when we couldn't buy anything but 2-3 inches of sleet for an entire winter. in my heart i think we probably end up with lower amounts in a setup like this, but no one designated me the weather wizard. get some salt and shovels ready, as always, milk, bread, butter, beer....a winter storm is coming!

That's not bad based on heights.

We get screwed by the transfer from the primary to the coastal. It causes a lull/minimum in precip. We've seen this happen many times in the past.

did they euro just cave?? @Carvers Gap

it ends up speeding back up...in the end it simply trended further NW, primary hangs on longer...looks kinda like last nights GGEM

Looks drier/flatter?

Watches up for OKX zones now.

We talked about wanting to see egg on Eric Webb's face, well he's doing the backstroke in an omelet swimming pool right now. The annoying thing he is not even acknowledging it. He's just carrying on commenting about the ice storm as if he didn't confidently predict there was no way this was going north and implying that NE snow weenies are stupid, dishonest, or both (unless he issued a mea culpa post that I missed).

La Niña de-amp beginning at 0z?

Nice summer like weather.

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place. And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off... verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd. The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance. However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ? questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window.

yea there's that too lol It's just one data point...just one run of one model...but the AIFS trend is not good... 24 hours ago when it was showing what we wanted we were rightfully pointing out how good it's been and that having it on our side was a big deal...so losing it to the more amplified NW camp is not what we want. But again...it's just one piece of evidence not the whole show... if the op euro and EPS come in good that would outweigh the significance some.