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It’s a flawed science..period. Theres nothing to conflate. And that’s that.

yeah, it's unlikely to be right

storms are the biggest crapshoot but without cold--it wouldnt matter. one thing that i hate about ninas is that we need phasing typically to get something good and we suck at phasing at the right time. usually very little gulf action

There is no way I get into the teen and Baltimore gets to 20 degrees.

For sure it won't be anything like a Toronto winter. But it's also not like going to Miami either, where they get *NO* snow or cold threats what so ever.

I don’t agree. But we have a thread for that. So take it there is my point. That’s all. Why clutter this thread up?

35.8 for the low... I must live in a heat dome.

The data is pretty clear. We're warming and it's mainly us. There's really not much a question here. If you want to have a debate on how that warming manifests itself or what we should do about it (if anything) those are completely reasonable questions to ask.

Only about 10% of the literature from the time predicted global cooling. Don't conflate your feelings with reality.

GSP first snowfall map.

12z CFS still trying

Listen to me…I don’t give a flying fuck if the temp went up or down. Nothing I do, or you do is gonna change it going up or down. In the 70’s we were told the temp was going down, and an ice age was coming. Laughable right. This is too. The earth/globe will do what it does. What it always does/did. So take your graph and your BS to the CC thread.

Euro upgrade early 2026 https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/185/earth-system-science/upgrade-ifs-cycle-50r1

Early season, snow in the air is a win. Even if it's flurries. One of my favorite memories is driving to a UT game vs Vanderbilt many many years ago with snow falling, not sticking but just in the air. It's little things like that that keep me in the weather watching hobby.

WHY IS THE WIND HOWLING AGAIN This is bullshit

on the bright side, however, 12z EPS shows a decent signal (albeit slightly less than last 12z), showing 29 out of 50 (58%) hits for at least one of the four airports.

The big story for early next week will be the shot of cold air. Let's hope it is a sign of things to come. Seems like last several years it took forever to get any cold air into the mid Atlantic. WB EURO Tues am. apparent temps and anomalies... time to drain the outside spigots.

For these parts in early November I’ll take it! .

In case the big graph scared you away from reading the text in that post. Also.. Believe what you want? It's a graph, believing implies there's a leap in the logic there. You could have stuck a thermometer right there in Southington and tracked it up until the present day and found the exact same thing.

Since the provisions of industrial convenience uncoupled humanity from reliance on natural settings to survive - settings outside of the industrial domain... It's a socio-evolutionary predicament, where people aren't just entitled; they don't realize they're living in a state of provision that's a presumption - like that is nature. And so it allows them to flout the science that was used in making their lives and experience be what they are.

Going to be your standard NW event. Doesn't look too meaningful for a lot of folks but hey snow is snow. Warm ground and it'll be falling in the day mostly. I'm just waiting for High-res.

It’s literally always windy here . Rarely ever is it calm so maybe all the wind brings them down quicker.

Not sure how we can logically disconnect the winter behavior from CC ... duh

A big problem is, and I guess this comes from whatever was said in the 70's or 80's, but climate change and global warming does not mean there won't be any more cold or won't be any more snow in places where these two phenomena are part of the climate. The Earth goes through cycles of warming and cooling, we all know this, this isn't a secret. Since the last ice age, the Earth has been on the warming part of the cycle. The issue here is, since the Industrial Revolution, the vast increase in concentrations of CO2 have led to the Earth warming at an alarming rate, much more so than what should be occurring naturally. The greatest extent of this is being felt at both poles and why is this a bad thing? Well the Earth's energy budge consists of a net deficit at the higher latitudes and a net surplus at the equator. So, for the Earth's energy budget to be close to in balance, this surplus of energy is transported to higher latitudes via oceanic and atmospheric currents. But this balance has been disrupted, and because of the advanced warming in the polar regions, the delta in this net deficit is being reduced. This has an impact on the natural currents (such as Hadley Cell). A warmer atmosphere holds more water, CO2 and H20 are two of the biggest heat trapping gasses , especially H20. This is an easy experience to conduct, and I mean take a look at Venus. Venus is immensely hotter than Mercury, despite Mercury being closer to the sun. Why is that. We see this clearly in our region during the summer, when everyone is talking about being way above average but that being driven by warm overnight temperatures? Why is this, well CO2 and H20 are also extremely efficient at absorbing longwave radiation (which is emitted by the Earth's surface at night) but they are not efficient at absorbing shortwave radiation (emitted by the sun). But significantly altering concentrations of CO2 (which we all know exists naturally), H20, and other gasses in the upper atmosphere will also impact production of ozone and can disrupt the structure of the upper atmosphere. We go through cycles of terrible winters and snowfall and fantastic winters for snowfall...that is not going to change, however, the frequency and and rate of returns will be altered and we will increase the occurrence of mild patterns and the duration of those patterns.