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You all probably saw this in the main thread last night, but it was reputably posted that recon flights over the Pacific will be putting in data to tonight's 0z runs.

They may eventually issue some blizzard warnings if that High pressure stay so strong to the north.

My question. When will they issue the flood watch for Georgetown?

06Z GEFS Total QPF storm mean

Also RGEM definitely slower with the Baja piece. Way too much heartburn over 06z. It was a much more skeptical set of runs concerning a phase. Also watch the flow out front… it seems like it wants to angle down, more northwesterly than southwesterly across guidance. That kind of suppressive look will also be super helpful to keep this thing pinned.

Below is a comparison of the 6z GFS(left) and 6z Euro(right). The differences over the Plains are noticeable. The Plains hp on the GFS is stronger and more to the Northwest. The Euro is digging the hp behind the storm - amps the slp in front. The hp in New England is more expansive on the GFS and blocks the slp from coming north...supresses the slp in the mid-South. Here are two more things I am looking at. Let's compare trends within the same model. If the GFS is going to be insistent on the Montana high being strong, is it actually maintaining its solution from run-to-run? 6z GFS(left) and 0z GFS (right). The GFS weakens the Montana hp(for lack of a better term), but only slightly and the portion of the hp is pretty much the same. The more that hp weakens, the more room is available for the slp to slip north. We need a banana high which is continuous. The New England high really stays about the same in terms of strength and position. IMPORTANT: Now, this might sound like splitting hairs, because it is. But the placement and strength of the two areas of hp is affecting synoptics big time. In turn, that is affecting p-types. I tend to lean towards the Euro as it is just a better model at this range. But...the 6z RFS surface pressure(not in this post) looks like the 6z GFS, and that gives me pause. The Euro having pretty significant differences w/ high strength and position(from 0z to 6z) in the Plains also gives me pause. The fact the 6z Euro brought back a stronger Montana hp...cannot be ignored, but it might not matter if the STJ pulse stays strong.

It could prob come far enough north to cause mixing in SNE but I don’t think this could ever become a true cutter with that type of confluence to the north and northeast. You have blocking in the Atlantic side albeit not excessive, but that puts a cap on this…add in the fact that it’s a true arctic airmass, that also plays a role

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday. If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

I told you there was big potential for that window. Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.

Yeah a strong initial low

I believe it will happen soon my friend PS…. Still wouldn’t rather go through the ups and downs of our nerdy obsession with weather with any other peeps or in any other place

Yeah that’s why I’d want to see more of a coastal to keep the moisture going vs blowing it to the SW.

That's some weak ass shit, son. Even I got to 14 and I have open lava tubes for roads

I'm not really worried about the initial low, but rather any redevelopment being over our heads. I'd like to see that phased 500 evolution drag more east or south vs over our heads.

Also the euro issue with the 18 hour dry slot (freezing drizzle slot) while people 50 miles north get pummelled

fortunately its a light and fluffy snow that we'll be dealing w/, but 12+ of any snow can become a factor. Hopeful that as the cones narrow (and we look to be squarely in them) that peeps listen and prepare for potential loss of heat/power. I'm telling everyone I can to get grill food ready and make sure propane is filled....just in case. I may have to sit at my desk for a while. Looking at the overnighters has me looking like a 16yr old lookin at playboys. Pants tent for sure. This is so fun.....LOVE it. Lets enjoy boys n girls.

Panic is reserved for 52F the day before an event and hoping the storm makes it's own cold air when the 540 line is in Cleveland. you wake up few hours before the storm and its 41F at 1am a now is all about evap cooling to save the day. none of that applies here. we're good!

Yeah I’d like to see more of a coastal take over and keep a slug of moisture going vs blowing it to our SW

12z HRRR is doing the same. Although at range it is a clownshow.

I don’t think anyone seeing advisories. You either getting snow or ice warning levels

Tickle Tickle

Getting that coastal low to crank and slow down and getting deformed is what we need to reach that HECS level.

Constructive/deconstructive interference is an impact.

FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute.