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At this point I may get nothing out of this. Precip shield and totals keep shrinking more and more on nw side. Euro caved to gfs. Guess it was nice while it lasted. Will be shocked if I get 1-2in.

The ideal environment for freezing rain accretion is just below freezing temperatures at the surface and a mist or very light rain falling into a gentle steady breeze to aid droplet particulation. I’m not sure if that’s an actual word the point being the bigger the droplet the less likely it will stick. Too much breeze and the water wont stick and has drying function, as does too low of a temperature to the moisture content. The fly in the ointment is already fallen sleet/snow at lower temperatures as it can supercool rain falling in lower temps and immediately form concrete. But heavier rain can and will overcome that, especially over a long duration.

06z run, it's kinda the boom scenario model for us right now. Big dumping of heavy snow before the transition.

You ain’t lying

Memphis went from 0.5" snow on 6z vs 6" snow on 12z hrrr

I think Boyer is doing a good job with how concerning this is but he could definitely use some stronger wording based off of this data.

as weve been seeing, secondary (coastal) is the key for that deformation band to set up. longer the primary holds on, it impedes coastal/comma head development.

Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning???

Definitely a couple of ass hairs there

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it. If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times.

I’ll say the attitude has changed here locally in the last 24 hours. Most people think it’s a “bust” and won’t do anything. It’s unfortunate the hype that happened early with the snow because people aren’t understanding the ice threat

I think we are more worried about the orientation of the precipitation field... but that looks better too.

Some other 6zs - ICON, Canadian & Ukie.

Ratios will def be great up that way...the average should easily be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range up there and probably upwards of 22:1 to 23:1 during peak intensity.

You think it'll be that low (for Norrisville)?

Yeah, it's on its own island right now. CMC has it buried in the gulf.

I’m sure the deatbands know where to go, the usual spots…hopefully

Don't know if it means anything for us, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest

Right now I’d go 7-11” for HoCo, Baltimore, and HarCo. 6-8” for DC. 21” for Norrisville.

Most is going to fall between about 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. That’s 1-2” per hour stuff.

They got to be leaning on gfs. I am curious what the warnings will read later.

Can someone please explain to me like I'm 5 how weather apps like AccuWeather can significantly decrease the ice totals and duration and severity of this storm in Greenville while the models euro/GFS are raising ice totals? AccuWeather has .19 for Saturday night and .17 for Sunday. So .36 for the whole storm. Chris Justus is hyping ice totals to catastrophic and giving Greenville .75. I'd say there's a huge difference between the damage .36 total of ice will cause as opposed to the .75 most everyone else is forecasting. Why these lowball ice predictions on these apps compared to everyone else?

I just take solace knowing that y'all suffer the opposite way when there's an unusual summer heatwave...

Word on street is that he is OC of choice for Minter and FO