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You've pointed out something that I've had a question about for a long time. We all know that the NPac is way warmer than normal. But, does that matter (wrt our weather around here)? If the average ocean temp is say, 45, and we're now seeing 50-52, is that enough of a jolt to alter the Nino climactic expectations? I know there are other variables out there, but focusing specifically on ocean warmth, is the 'blob' warm enough (NOT just comparing to average, but total warmth) to cause what we expect (warm northern tier, cooler southern tier, dry Ohio Valley, juiced STJ etc.) to be materially altered? This may be too simplistic but if I go from 17 degrees to 24, that doesn't alter much. If I go from 28 degrees to 35, we have a whole different world.

If December is as mild as early thoughts, im hoping we get a Thanksiving wintry blast. 4 of the 5 past Thanksgiving weekends have been snowy in the Lakes, and the last 2 years there's been snow on the ground when cutting down the Christmas tree black Friday. It really helps to get that early jolt if Decembers gonna suck.

Several days after Andrew, Typhoon Omar made a direct hit on Guam. taking out the operation of JTWC (which was based on Guam at the time). NHC was almost taken out by Andrew, and the following month, CPHC in Honolulu narrowly adverted Iniki. The E/CPAC had 27 NS in 1992, the record for this basin. Quite a year!

Miami hit 100° today for only the second time ever wow

Big, early departures may result in an ugly monthly + anomaly, but once it flips and gets cold enough for snowfall, who cares!!! February will be knocking on the door.

Tomorrow should mainly fair and very warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential. Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

Preliminarily this is where I’m leaning (locally): December +7 to +10 January +5 to +8 February -1 to +2 I will revise this later on. This is for the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester). Of the 3 months, there’s little chance I’ll revise December. Might even go higher.

Possible. Just hope youre wrong lol. January being the coldest month is still very workable with temps solidly above avg here. But want to avoid the +10 nonsense.

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active. Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far. However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks.

Close at FLL and HST too. Really interesting setup for a mid summer afternoon down there. NNW flow and dews somewhat mixed out.

SPC has day 2 marginal and slight risk out for west and middle tn specifically the northwest area of west tn in the slight risk and marginal up to and around i65 and goes back southwestward for 5-15% damaging wind 2% tornado and also 5% hail as well https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html .

Congrats Miami on hitting 100°

I might officially declare the drought over. The question now is are we gonna get our once every 5-10 yr blizzard.

We need AO help biggly and not the overrated kind. I’m otherwise in the @forkyforkcamp on this one.

January could end up pretty warm is we build huge departures early on.

Last season featured my first positive seasonal snowfall anomaly since 2017-2018.

Oh, that is your site? Awesome job! My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.

Mowing today, did not finish, ran over the second yellow jacket nest of the season. Will need to work on that after dark. Lawn has come back nicely, now that cooler weather and lower dews have arrived.

We hit 99 today. First time this year and hopefully the last time. Heat index as high as 126 earlier.

The desertification of the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/17/uk-government-emergency-drought-plans-transparency

We got like 10-12” but we live elevated. Half mile down the road by the park was the complete disaster.

NAM 3k runs have been really bullish for Thursday. Kiss of death?

The more I follow the Clancy case, the more i am convinced of Patricks guilt instead. He did it.

@CoastalWx should read this before passing summary judgement on the RRFS! RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf