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looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

A sounding from eastern Illinois from the 18z NAM...a bit of a cap around 700mb but this is an extremely scary profile. You put a mature supercell into this environment and there is absolute concern for a long tracked tornado

Yeah, 2 years ago when my son graduated we were baking in the low 90s. All the kids giving speeches wouldn't stop talking too, lol

They did it at 8am in NC last week. Had to get up at like 530 but it was smart to get it done before the heat

Hot time of day there. They do 6pm here. Tonight is literally perfect for it. might even need a sweater lol. Only 72 right now.

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event. Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.

Yep. The Euro AI has been on it for the past couple days with the southern cutoff as per usual

Moving a little more exponential the last few days Subsurface looks really healthy right now Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July

Of course for mine, it is Thursday at 4pm. Maybe it can work...

South and east I think / hope Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

Thank you! I saw in the article they were still assessing in York County, I’ll be curious what they say for that assessment

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out.

Maybe can score a short “chase” again.

RIP king james

We are still in a dry pattern

System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low.

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Is that the MD heights trail? If so, did you park on the Va side and have to schlep over to the trailhead? I used to be able to park on the Md side in little nooks when I had my Jeep, but last time I went they had that general area closed off for parking.