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Ukie looks great again

Less interaction between the northern and southern stream. Also the southern stream get sheared out coming into the southwestern US.

Ukie

GFS ENS does cool off for most of NC but a lot of easern NC has ZR on this run.

It’s drier overall - it’s just noise I think. DC still almost .8” liquid

I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op.

Looks like this GGEM's gonna carry the 30th bomb ...or close to it judging by this 500 mb evolution. It's the index storm we're waiting on the dailies to get around to ... not that they have to of course.

Don’t really care to understand the micro climate factors up there just yet, just been stating that there are ways to get big qpf up there , still early in the game

Same. I'm up in Buford. Don't want any part of an ice storm.

And its trying to tuck, may just be a hair north with it.

The reality is I don't think is a jackpot strom for the subforum, this feels like a DC classic or maybe even south of there. If it turns up the coast then this subforum could still get some snow. Idk thats my two sense just going by the pattern and high to the north.

"If atmosphere has memory, which I do believe in similar tendencies, this will likely be another minor event like either last Saturday or Sunday, respectively. " Are you starting to think atmospheric memory on this one or are the players that much different?

Superstitious are ya? oh ye of little faith

UK is warmer than the GFS. Mostly a mix in NC and mostly rain to the south. Even has east of Wake turning to rain.

we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event

Makes sense. I’m about 20 miles north of downtown Atlanta. Hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.

Is it slower and that's the difference?

Canadian. Slower with the energy coming out of the SW, keeps it bottled up like the GFS but finally gives and releases, unlike the GFS. Overall, a lean toward the GFS but nowhere near as paltry with the moisture.

Canadian dumps like 6" of sleet in the triangle followed by like 0.5" zr. Almost zero snow it would seem.

Ukie still a beat down

Figured.

Ensemble is a lot warmer at 850's. Would be a lot of ZR across NC.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol.

Ukie will just fine. Mod to heavy snow by 9Z Sunday.

These first two are not mutually exclusive....there is mesoscale risk with arctic air pinning the CF like that. Issue for a few days from now, but this is a setup conducive to that.