All Activity

Can I get away with planting a dwarf Alberta Spruce IMBY this weekend? Or is it too soon.

Do you whine about everything? Just enjoy it. Remarkable stretch.

It was a beautiful morning; went cycling up the Parkway this AM:

A grand total of .02 here overnight.

Yeah, but was is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that. The second derivative being the acceleration quotient. That means that any return state is returning a higher level. So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher. Climate doesn't move that fast, no. But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive.

yeah like a 6" depth

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early.

The pattern continues as well with me being in the office tomorrow...always.

Morning discussion from LWX seems to suggest sneaky severe day. While likely do be MRGL, they do mention much higher threat possible Latest guidance is a bit slower and further west/northwest with the position of a cold front on Thursday. SLP progs hint at two subtle warm front type features that will lift northeast during the day on Thursday ahead of a pair of weak surface lows (one near PA/NJ, and the other near central VA). Where this front ends up just prior to peak heating will be crucial in determining the severe weather threat locally on Thursday. Forecast soundings show strong mid-level capping west of the front Thursday afternoon, with no capping and notably stronger CAPE approaching or exceeding 2000 J/kg east of it. The consensus is for this front to be more or less over I-95 Thursday afternoon during peak heating, though there is some variance anywhere from near the Blue Ridge to the Chesapeake Bay. Mid-level lapse rates start the day unimpressive, around 5 C/km likely due to saturation aloft associated with a weak wave of showers, but steepen slightly closer to 6 C/km by afternoon due to some cooling aloft. The extent of any clouds and showers cast some uncertainty on the extent of heating and instability later in the day. The background environment is favorable for strong to severe updrafts and even supercells. An 80-90+ kt upper jet will pivot over the area, with its right entrance ascent positioned over the surface frontal zone in the afternoon. Mid-level heights stay relatively steady, but PVA (strongest north) will be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned mid/upper wave and jet. Flow will increase through the column, with 25-40 kts in the 2-5 km AGL layer and effective deep layer bulk shear around 40 kts. SRH also increases to 100-200 m2/s2. Initial discrete cells in this environment may quickly grow upscale into a line capable of surges of strong to severe straight-line wind and a few embedded spin ups. Some hail can`t be ruled out in the strongest storms due to cooling temps aloft. Finally, although Corfidi vectors are not too low (10-15 kts), on the mesoscale some backbuilding or training potential may exist on the tail (southwest) end of any developing line heading into the evening. Again, the highest potential will be along and east of the front which currently appears to be near I-95 during the afternoon into the early evening hours. Although somewhat conditional based on (1) the placement of the front, and (2) the degree of instability, Thursday`s severe weather and excessive rainfall risk bears monitoring. For now, given the uncertainties listed above, the risk is more in the Marginal (level 1 out of 5) bin for severe weather (i.e. any damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes), but with a conditionally much higher ceiling than most typical late summer days. The excessive rainfall/flood risk may be even more conditional due to uncertain mesoscale factors and lingering drought.

Edibles?

Didn’t SSTs down there hit 100 a couple years ago?

Absolute chasm of a gap between the mesos with how they depict tomorrow.

NAM nest sends pretty robust UH tracks over the area tomorrow.

30 plus inches in roughly 5 hours in 1 night... Luckily the Madison county event in 95 occurred during the day with similar 30 inch totals - or the death toll there would have been extreme...

Yep! I will put this on my list to get fixed. Appreciate the tip. I am having a lot of fun with it though like wishcasting a SSW

It's always possible a mistake was made, especially considering the massive amount of things I am working on to get it live. I will take a second pass on the cansips to see if I messed something up.

That is quite the model battle tomorrow

That's 12.0" for June 1 thru August 18, probably normal or slightly AN for that period in your neighborhood. August is imitating July a bit. July 1-4: +10.3; 5th on: -1.0; Month total: +0.5 Aug 1-9: +4.7; 10th-18th: -0.4; 1-18: +2.2 I'm guessing August will finish in the +1/+2 range.

Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer.

EWR: 96 (2002) NYC: 94 (2002) LGA: 94 (1966) JFK: 90 (2009) Lows: EWR: 54 (1958) NYC: 55 (1924) LGA: 59 (1979) JFK: 53 (1963) Historical: 1559: Pensacola, Florida: First recorded hurricane in US history hits Pensacola area driving five Spanish ships ashore in Pensacola Harbor. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum) 1890 - An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000. 1896: The famous Cottage City (Oak Bluffs) waterspout occurred off Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The vortex was 3,600 feet high, formed three times, and was well photographed. 1935: Bangor, ME soared to 104° for their all-time record high temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1939: An F2 tornado associated with a hurricane moved over the 10-mi-wide estuary of the Potomac River. It sank a boat offshore Reedville, VA, drowning a man; another person was killed between Scotland and Dameron, MD. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1939: Tuckerton registered New Jersey’s maximum 24 hour precipitation record as 14.82 inches of rain fell on the 19th and 20th. (Ref. Hurricane Map and NWS Monthly Weather Review ) 1955: Devastating floods affect much of New England on the 18th and 19th as Hurricane Diane give record breaking rains. Boston, Massachusetts had 8.40 inches in 24 hours, greatest ever on Boston's records. Rains from Tropical Storm Diane fell on already saturated ground from Tropical Storm Connie a week before. Westfield, MA recorded 18.15 inches in 24 hours, to set a state record, while the 24-hour precipitation record for CT was set at Burlington with 12.77 inches. At one point, over 40% of Worcester, MA was underwater. Woonsocket, RI was hit hard as the Blackstone River, normally only 70 feet wide, swelled to over 1.5 miles in width. 82 people died and damage topped $800 millions dollars.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1979: Severe weather and very heavy rains were an unwelcome visitor to parts of northeast Nebraska from this date through the 20th. Hail up to one inch in diameter damaged crops in a strip from 6 miles south of Pilger, NE through Wisner and Pender affecting Stanton, Thurston and Cuming Counties. But probably the most remarkable event occurred in Dixon County where 6 to nearly 10 inches of rain fell in just four hours. This rainfall caused the Iowa Creek to exceed its banks causing extensive flash flooding of homes and businesses in Ponca. The rushing water washed out crops, tore trees from the creek bed and washed out 15 bridges in the county. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Hurricane Bob made landfall at Newport, RI with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts to 105 mph. Then the cyclone made a final landfall as a tropical storm at Rockland, ME. Winds reached 80 mph gusting 110 mph at the New Bedford Hurricane Barrier and gusts reached 143 mph at Westport Point, MA, 125 mph at Block Island, RI, 100 mph at Cape Cod, MA and 93 mph at Blue Hill, ME. The storm surge at Upper Buzzards Bay reached 15 feet. 7.84 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Portland, ME, their wettest 24 hour period on record. Power was out to 2.1 million homes and businesses and damage totaled $1.5 billion dollars. 17 people died. Bob was the worst hurricane in the northeast since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Hurricane Bob did $780 million in damage and a long period of lost power in New England.Bob's Storm Track - Weather Underground (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1991: Strong thunderstorms affected portions of north central and east central South Dakota. In Dewey County, near Ridgeview, a thunderstorm produced about five inches of rain, very strong winds, and hail. The winds blew over three grain bins, one of which struck a house causing considerable damage. Skirting was blown from several mobile homes and shingles were torn from many houses. The storms also produced tremendous amounts of lightning. The Civil Defense Director for Codington County reported that the lightning was so frequent and vivid that he drove for 10 minutes without needing his headlights. At one point a lightning strike occurred within 10 feet of his car. The strike splattered mud onto his vehicle, drained his battery, and caused problems with the car's electrical system. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Tropical Storm Andrew was becoming disorganized as it was being affected by upper level wind shear. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Las Vegas, Nevada: A sudden deluge surprises Las Vegas, dumping 3 inches of rain in 90 minutes, severely flooding the city's northwest sector, knocking out power to thousands, and leaving motorists stranded atop their cars. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2007: Rainfall and flooding of historic proportions struck parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley continuing into the next day. Rainfall in excess of 10 to 12 inches fell in some areas, with the main swath of heaviest rain centered along a line from Claremont and Rochester, MN to La Crosse, Viroqua and Muscoda, WI. 24 hour rainfall records were set in the following locations: Hokah, MN: 15.10 inches, Viroqua, WI: 9.23 inches, La Crescent, MN: 7.95 inches, Gays Mills, WI: 7.41 inches, The Hokah total also set the 24-hour rainfall record for the entire state of Minnesota. In addition, due to the training nature of the storms, the heavy rain persisted for hour after hour, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour common. Flood of records were recorded at the Middle Fork Whitewater River at Whitewater State Park, MN. Many other sites had river crest within the top 5 record crest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.

81 / 63 sunny. Warmest of the next 7 days with upper 80s to the warmest locations touching 90. Thursday storms could dump 1-2 inches of rain later in the pm and into the night especially in south/east sections. Clears out and dry gorgeous Friday low 80s, then need to watch either a split weekend or an unsetteled mainly cloudy pair - TBD. Near normal 8/24 - 8/27 before moderating warmer and then overall warm 8/29 - beyond and shot at some late season heat and humidity.