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There it is: IN THE EVENT PRECIP DOES EXPAND WELL NORTH INTO THE AREA, ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN PLAY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

Me too….get it

This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep any eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE.

Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution.

How much wind tho?

When I think of blocking in March I think of 2013. Obviously results will vary based off PNA.

Told em

Far and away it’s been the best model this winter. It nailed that midweek snow event a few days prior to the big storm and several others in terms of placement

Let’s snow

Scoots lives S Wey so may be a bit different than Wey

March 2012 for reference

normally I’d look at the setup and say rain, but how cold the ocean temps are right now could help us (east winds not the death sentence they often are in these setups for the coast). If the low goes inland it will rain regardless, but I think we have more room for error than usual in these setups due to it being mid Feb + the unusually cold ocean temps.

Cloudy all day but the sun was out first thing in the morning, making the snow glisten.

Bad start for da charts

GFS juicing up a bit too at 18z....Really likes Ray's area up into SE NH, but it got better for all of SNE vs 12z.

In an active pattern, all we need is one quick Arctic shot thru mid March. I’m more interested in precip at this point. This region really needs it.

ah that explains the S. Wey Naval base COOP reports ive been seeing looking back at storms from the mid 90s.

Coldest start at ORH too since 1995-96 at this point. The two years immediately ahead of 2026 are 1976 and 1996 and both were quite torchy around 2/9-11 so we actually might pass those two over the next few days even though we're not going to be particularly frigid....today's number will be pretty cold though which aren't in the books yet.

I thought it did absolutely fantastic the Jan 18-19th system it was very consistent with it from the start when most of the major models had it OTS or clipping the SE coast. I was praising it that storm calling it the RGEM storm when most where focusing on a win for the AIs, which was true but i think they overshadowed the RGEMs performance. its been doing great overall this winter imo and vastly superior to other hi res guidance like the NAM

That was stupid. But pride and ego overrule what your body tells you.

If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks

So March is going to March....Like it does every year....since the dawn of time....

Congrats

Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa..

It was a good run. We probably start sliding back now in the rankings but for this to be the coldest winter since 1996 at BDL is impressive.