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Great upton decrease the percentage from 70 to 30 and then only cloudy. Now showers and based on radar it seems it will be raining for a while in the city
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0Z UKMET has a sub-TD hitting Daytona Thu moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA:
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
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Mr. weenie all posts is gonna die on this ant hill
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Time to get back to summer wx. Every day June 16-26 was BN, though modestly - the period was only 2.9° BN. The previous 7 days were 8.9° AN so the 18-day period was +1.7. Month's precip up to 5.35", first 5"+ since May of last year.
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the euro has a cold 2m temp bias in winter but they never talk about that
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Starting a few minutes ago everything has been locked behind a login screen.
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We know the op runs are overdoing it at range, but the AI and Ensemble runs do support near 100. Temps at DCA at 2pm 7/2 through 7/4 AIFS - 99/100/97 AIGFS - 99/101/93 EPS - 101/102/99 GEFS - 102/100/95 CMCE - 102/102/94
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Idk about all that but clearly the super Nino is not fully in charge of our weather. We're getting a lot of Nina influences which makes forecasting winter very challenging. -
I feel bad for the few legit international people whose registrations I turn down, but 99.9% of the foreign IPs are spam, bots, or phishing attempts. It’s “American” weather so we come first.
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Ha, 11 members and 9K guests.
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Idk it's got model and ensemble support and we're still a few days out. Ridges have only trended stronger as we got closer. In addition the overall dry environment would make higher temps more plausible. I think some 105+ readings are on the table.
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Thank you for becoming an ICE agent. We thank you for your services. -
Good catch. I blocked guests and new registrations for now. They were mostly foreign IPs. It’s already faster.
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0.00 here Mount Holly realized their forecast yesterday morning was waaay too bullish given the weakly forced environment for this 'event'. Decent PWAT and some afternoon heating along with the weak front moving through is pretty much all this has going for it. There will probably be some localized heavy showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in a few spots but many locations will see little to nothing.
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Hopefully it sounds Fort McHenry in 1812.
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Up over 9,000 guests now.
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It's not over yet
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Forecasting a high of 100° for D4 sure is a thing.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Blistering heat coming . -
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2009-10 is not even remotely close to being an analog. It’s actually the worst “analog” known to man for this event, I don’t know why you continue to insist that it is -
Gonna go to Phantom Fireworks and light them off on the chicken run.
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Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
winter_warlock replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Damn. Stay hydrated bro!!!- 222 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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At the national zoo. It was quiet but since the rain is not going to materialize it’s getting crowded. And quite more humid. Sun wants to break through. Carrying around an umbrella for zero reason is fun. But it is pouring up at home in Harrisburg. We need rain desperately bad and are in a bad drought.
