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Great photo. What's the snow level....4,500 ish?

We had our first 30s of the season at 39. Was 38 down on the river below me and 45 a few hundred yards up the hill. Wild how big a swing you can get with radiational cooling in the valleys this time of year.

As strong as that Nino may have been, one would assume that the implied RONI was off the charts compared to the upcoming winter.

New York City will see the temperature again dip below 50° tonight. Lows should fall to the middle and upper 40s in New York City early tomorrow morning. Some distant suburbs could again see lows bottom out in the 30s with some scattered frost. Thursday and Friday will be milder days with the mercury returning to the lower 70s across much of the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.51 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.195 today.

I am so sorry for your loss. Praying for you and your family, it's so hard to lose a parent.

I’ll take my vitamin D while I can. Low stratus and 30s will be here soon enough.

Islip is 37 and FRG at 34 last I checked.

The first runs of the HAFS suites since classification are not impressive, to say the least. The TC gets walloped around 70'ish hours out and becomes very assymetric with advected dry air doing its thing. Something to keep in mind. Is the window there for a strong hurricane? Sure. But the TC needs to come together rapidly over the next 48 hours.

Nope. Retired. No longer have an active law license.

Td is 43, so I doubt it

Glad I don't live there.

Even if it weakens, the intensity offshore could have huge implications on potential storm surge.

I’m not going to over analyze individual model runs but if it takes a track like the GFS shows that’s really bad for surge at the mouth of the Mississippi, bay St. Louis, biloxi bay, and possibly mobile bay. Landfall intensity is important but if this peaks maybe 6-8 hours before landfall any weakening would not affect surge potential at all. That’s a very bad track in that regard

My low was 41 degrees and my high was 74 today. Beautiful.

Look at all those hot towers Would agree on a C1 landfall being most likely right now. Reaching C3+ over the open ocean beforehand looks very attainable.

Right now is the slowest motion we will see. The westerly steering flow in interaction with the mid-to-upper trough will push the TC towards the east and then begin to turn it poleward. At that point, it should be gaining forward motion into landfall.

47 and dropping like a rock

I think this gets up to a major before it gets closer to the coast. The gulf has so much heat in it... just jet fuel for it. And if it slows down at all?

Hopefully it hits the wall of shear and gets eaten up by dry air which is probably the most likely outcome. But there’s jet fuel in its path before that happens. The SE still needs the rain so a weakening TS with heavy rain would be beneficial.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity. Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.

Down to 50 and wind about calm. Will be interesting if a good chunk of LI can get their first 30s.

I want to send my condolences to you and your family carvers gap .

Not really...I basically agreed. Lol