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First shower of the day is falling in the Valley. I'm getting some early leaf fall as well with black cherry and poplar trees around the house.

Some wet wx across the SE sub, and NW sub. Other than that, a pretty decent holiday weekend for most.

As depicted its a bit warmer, but it wasn't cold on last month's edition either. I think we have a pretty good idea of how this winter will go. Need a -AO and or EPO to bring some colder air close enough to work with for a time.

what does this have to do with el nino

Overcast morning again. Clouds are suppose to clear this aftrn. If so, the temps should bump into the 70's briefly.

Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:

If I knew we were actually going to only be +1C for DJF, I'd be pretty bullish for snow. Perhaps even more so if you can wag that December makes up most of that + anomaly and JF are near normal or even a touch below. But that's all weenie-casting right now.

.25" rain from 10:30 - 11:40 The Graf model from 5 am was exactly right with 100% rainfall while NWS was only 30%. At less than 12 hrs. it seems that Graf is more accurate than NWS.

September 5 1990: Nine inches of rain falls in Duluth by the end of the following day, washing out $1,000,000 worth of roads. 1982: 77 mph winds are reported in Anoka County. For Saturday, September 5, 2026 1925 - The temperature at Centerville, AL, soars to 112 degrees to establish a state record. Every reporting station in Alabama was 100 degrees or above that afternoon. (The Weather Channel) 1933 - A hurricane hit Brownsville, TX, killing forty persons and causing 12 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1950 - Hurricane Easy produced the greatest 24 hour rainfall in U.S. weather records. The hurricane deluged Yankeetown, on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1975 - Strong winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust resulting in a 22-car chain reaction accident on Interstate 10 near Toltec AZ. Two persons were killed, and 14 others were injured. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States drenched Charleston, SC, with 5.50 inches of rain, and a total of 13.50 inches in two days, flooding homes, and leaving roads and bridges under water. (The National Weather Summary) A tropical storm which formed off the South Atlantic coast was responsible for torrential rains over coastal regions of South Carolina. Between the 30th of August and the 8th of September, Charleston SC received 18.44 inches of rain. The heavy rains caused extensive flooding around the city of Charleston, seriously damaged cotton crops in the eastern part of the state, and resulted in an unusually high number of mosquitos. (Storm Data) 1988 - Five days of heavy rain commenced in west central Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain in four days resulted in extensive urban flooding, and evacuation of 1000 homes. Flooding claimed four lives, and caused more than five million dollars proprty damage. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced six to ten inches of rain in south central Kansas between 6 AM and Noon. Serious flooding was reported around Wichita, with water four feet deep along some roads. A cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Sheridan WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 5 Sat World Beard Day 5 Sat National Cheese Pizza Day 5 Sat World Samosa Day 5 Sat National Be Late For Something Day 5 Sat National Act Dumb Day 5 Sat National Cellulite Day 5 Sat National Shrink Day 5 Sat International Day of Charity

From the top of Mount Snow yesterday

Headed to Baltimore this afternoon to see the Sox; very appreciative of the lowering dews and low-to-mid 80s highs!

Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:

For this site getting you is like Red selecting Bird with the 6th pick in the 1978 draft!! You future enshrinment into the AMWX Hall of Fame is a lock!!

yea i remember that---we were laughing at how we needed the pattern to go nina for us to score snow during that Nino. That season, canada was so blowtorched that we could never recover. but the models looked really good in the fall looking ahead to that winter. Thats the scary part

86 this morning. Low of 76

Trend this month is warmer....hope it's wrong.

Interesting + PNA phase might happen

Will, thanks for posting. Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm). Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort: examples for Feb: 1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010). 2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm 8/6-15: 8/16-25: 8/26-9/4:

We are entering a dry period during the next 7 days, unless the Thursday system delivers which is unlikely at this time. At least we are losing solar heating and the days are getting shorter.

Hideous look with Aleutian low over AK and massive + EPO. Open the torch Pacific floodgates if this happens

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that.