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Reduction in soundings should impact all forecasts, but perhaps not equally given different data assimilation methods. Not sure how you’d “normalize” it so to speak, but I think comparing forecast accuracy between winter 24-25 and 25-26 would be a very interesting study.

Depends. 42 is a mini torch-8 degrees above normal but mid 40s+ during the coldest climo at bdl is a torch. This isn’t early December. Seasons in seasons…

I forgot to mention. Doge didn't effect the Eps. Lol

Flurries now..

The SER is part of the base state we are dealing with this winter. It is a function of the La Nina and fits Nina climo. The key is cashing in when there are windows when it gets squashed or acting as a flat ridge / gradient. It was a certainty the SER would pump at times this season.

I bet more qpf is modeled on tomorrows runs

But that’s not a torch . Few days of 40’s

We should be so lucky.

So how damaging do we think this mild up will be? It seems like the boundary might not get further north of the MA/NH border?

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view. BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

Eps have the SE Ridge at the end of the run too. This is at least the 3rd run in a row on the 360hr runs. It's maddening.

Here's just another forecast from another MET Ross Elliot out of Ohio. **Weather Nerd Alert: Next Week’s Warmth Is A Warning Sign From Old Man Winter** I have seen a lot of flashy headlines in the past 24 hours on social media that are either misleading or flat out wrong. Yes, we will warm up next week. No, winter isn’t over, and I would not describe what is coming as “A January Heat Wave” either as highs will be in the 40s. In fact, if you hate winter, I would not get too excited for the coming warmth. If you understand what will drive the mild pattern, then you also understand the warmth would be temporary, and it is likely a warning sign of a big arctic blast and potential for bigger winter storms. So what is going on behind the scenes? The pattern so far this winter has generally mimicked what we have today, below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes to the Northeast, warm out west, and extremely cold in Alaska and the Yukon. Nobody up that way wants to hear, “it is Alaska, what do you expect?”. The interior of Alaska just had their coldest December in 45 years. Fairbanks hasn’t been above 0 degrees F in nearly 3 weeks. Lows have been between -40 and -50F every day for the past week. That is not normal cold up that way. Meteorologists have been closely watching this pocket of extreme cold, because when it does start to move, it will have a big impact wherever it goes. The pattern is still locked in over the next 3 days, but after that we start to see a shift east with this entire global pattern. The warmth that is out west starts moving our way, and the trough over Alaska drops into the west. Alaska is the key to the long range forecast, and computer models move a ridge towards the state and it intensifies over the next two weeks. That would do two things. 1) It pushes the set up east. That means we get temporary warming that is in the western states, and in time that cold air in Alaska and western Canada finds a new home in the northern plains and Great Lakes, and eventually the northeast. 2) A strong ridge like what is forecast is also a blocking pattern that would stall out the weather pattern and also split the jet stream into a polar jet and a subtropic jet stream. This would increase the chance for bigger winter storms in the eastern half of the country as that pipeline of moisture would go across the Pacific, and pick up extra moisture from the Gulf. Meanwhile, the polar jet could drop into the Great Lakes bringing lots of cold. When you have this pattern, and the waves sync up, then you often get some bigger winter storms. There is no way of knowing where these storms will end up right now, but the pattern looks ideal for winter storms. At the very least, the cold looks to make a big comeback. In a nutshell, yes it will warm up next week, but be careful what you ask for as the same engine that is driving the warmth would also drive arctic cold our way after it and probably wintery precipitation mid to late January. This entire set up is connected. The screen shots below show the basic pattern as it shifts east over the next couple of weeks.

Pivotal doesn't offer multiple days, so we can't get an apples to apples comparison.

It's going be interesting what these smoothed ens mean cinamas look like on or around the 7th .. 8th. Both the EPS and GEPS 12z continued/agree in their idea of a +PNA blossoming by 270 hours, which then within just 3 or 4 days, retrogrades and/or repositions a new ridge in the EPO domain. In fact, the GEPs is rather exotic looking. In principle they agree on that evolution. The GEFs on the other hand offers a more tamed looking +PNA, which then moves and/or retrogrades into the hybrid position between the +PNA and -EPO; similar -EPO amplitude as the EPS way the hell out at the temporal horizon of fantasy range. But, all of these movies are after the big collapse in the N Pac out there in 4 or 5 days.

Lmaooo none of that's even gonna be the same in 2 weeks lol

Uhhh…82-83 had a KU? 14-15 was a very good winter. 97-98 was a blowtorch super Nino. 06-07 and 18-19 were fair to good depending on location.

Enjoy your 0.03” water equiv

Typical +TNH,while we get into wk2 of Jan,+PNA,Trough AXIS in the middle of the country,subtropical ridge builds over Florida and the JET is well north of the Tn Valley,i actually thought we'd have a chance last week to maybe have somewhat a better pattern,but even tho it looks good in East Asia,other teleconnections still play a part in NA,so this time seemingly might not work out well for us

Sun finally out and temp up to 32. Not going to get close to the forecast high of 38 lol

Lemme guess, he's the guy who's lights are on before Thanksgiving.

I thinbk those are every 6 hours...but yeah, there's plenty of warmish days in there. 46 next week and some other 40s smattered around in there

I don't think any of the analogs that Webber has listed below were particularly good winters in these parts.

Verbatim the 54 and 49 days consecutively mid January

My annual tradition of noting tomorrow is Perihelion day - the Earth is closest to the sun officially at 12:15 EST. And as a double bonus, tomorrow is also a supermoon (full moon while the moon is at or near perigee). This combo won't happen again until 2045. So when that time rolls around, be sure to tell your kids (or grandkids, or great-grandkids, or anyone who will listen) that you were there in 2026 and it was a rollicking event.