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Here's the RRFS ensemble, which we'll all have to use for general purposes, since the NAM and standard convection allowing models are ending! tornado chances upcoming today

They’re WAY more optimistic than what I predicted.

It's going to be a long cold winter that never ends.

In-Fa was very impressive at 130 kt, and slowed down, did a small loop, and is now quite sheared

That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.

This change was actually set to occur in mid-October, but was pushed back due to the REFS/RRFS failing it's final test prior to that time. But yes, unless there is some very last minute shift, that change will occur tomorrow.

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La Nina base state seems to account for most (not all) of the warmth in the east

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland.

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

Not sure if this was posted here but it’s from tnwx not saying I disagree with everything posted above I think they were also posted over a span of a day or two so could have also changed

Deep extended about as locked in as it gets

The last in a flurry of posts. There is some continuity(over particularly NA) between the EURO LR Ext and the 12z CFS 30d maps for mid Nov to mid Dec....western and central Europe are obviously different.

A lot of things claim that have never happened before, HAVE! Yes, we use the continuous POR from climo sites, but we do have records prior to, say 1872, for BOS when the official climate record begins. And some climate site are quite short, like IAD, which began in 1960. CAR starts in 1939. And you can take it one step further. I've seen statements prior about dozens of sites in TX have their warmest month or highest temp, and I looked and the long-term climate sites like DFW or HOU did not. Well, that stat came from all the new AWOS METAR sites installed since 2001 in the state, and there have been well over 100 and still sites are been added to this day, so you have a POR 25 years or less for all these sites, so of course records are broken easier for not so extreme temps! But that part of it is left out of the narrative! And this is the case for a lot of the U.S. Over 1000 AWOS sites installed starting in the early 90s for many states. And add in all the state mesonet networks now. OK was the first, and many have followed. And for rainfall, the CoCoRaHS network, which was not a thing until 1998.

I don't think we'd really see a ton of temperature rug pulls. Instead, our "shit the blinds" pattern will be one where we watch storms take a perfect track but have no cold air on the continent. The pattern means it won't be a particular surprise when they fail. Just look at that storm as an example. Where would the cold air come from? There's not even a 540 height line near the precipitation. Now, if you get a shot of cold air from a favorable PNA phase then you can get your classic rug pulls (storm track, precipitation, north trend, etc). Didn't post the temperature map but it has most of western VA at 35 degrees and we've experienced 2 degrees fahrenheit of warming. Wonder if it would've been a snowstorm in the before times.

MU Winter Forecast is out: Temps at least 4 to 7 degrees AN in December. Temps 2 to 4 degrees AN in January and February. Enhanced chance of a big dog winter storm between 1/20 and 2/20. Total snowfall in Lanco: 20-30".

Not even close. Just asking to get your face ripped off trying to short sell that.

On the plus side, I do think these summer time temps are gone after this week until next season. I had hopes that extended summer was not going to prevail this year, but it certainly did!!!! The SSW could certainly delay the typical winter analog pattern(El Nino) from taking over. If the El Nino crashes mid-winter, then I would say, "Buckle up." Chaos might be inbound, but we will see. FWIW, chaos can be good or bad.

One way train the entire year.

Not too long ago, a video clip "suggest for you" popped up my X feed. It is brief segment from Fox Weather, but it could have been any major media outlet. What is shown exemplifies how wx is pushed and micromanaged these days, and things like minimal risk are scrutinized to the max. In this case, a NHC Tropical Wx Outlook for a newly highlighted low prob area for TC development. This is from 6/27/26. First the actual outlook: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Off of the southeastern coast of the U. S.: A low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal system early next week. Slow development of this system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Concise and to the point. Now take a look at the short Fox Wx segment concerning it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzkWpIth-Po Breaking news for an NHC outlook that is 0/20?? Really? This is what constitutes 'breaking news' these days? Talk about scrapping the bottom of the barrel for content! The amount of time just spent on such low potential area and not in short range here is a lot, more than is necessary really. And at the end of the segment, the grease pan analogy. Huh? If the probability were moderate-high, esp. in the next 2 days, that certainty warrants a segment and discussion, but this? It is more filler than anything. A quick mention of this potential is fine for a wx segment, but surely there were more pressing wx concerns and short-term risks to talk about? In this case, there was. Here is the DY1 SWO for 6/27. A lot of sig svr tstm risk! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260627_1200.html And this is what happened for svr wx. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260627_rpts.html Not every little tiny risk/threat has to be mentioned, hyped, or picked apart to make it sound more important than it really is!

These are the 30d looks for Nov 18-Dec18. Notice how the cold in western/central Europe teleconnects somewhat to a trough over the East of NA. Notice on the control how the cold dumps into Texas which is not unprecedented. Remember the '93 Thanksgiving game between Miami and Dallas(touched FG attempt) w/ ice snow. That control run is a NASTY look for all kinds of mischief over the SE. In NO WAY am I calling for that at this point. I have been watching this for several days(maybe a week). I tend to think Jeff's comments would be wise to listen to and would temper expectations at this point. But that is a wild look on the Weeklies today. I wouldn't say that is bitterly cold. That Hudson Bay block has been a warm look over the past few years, but a southern storm track to accompany that. In short, good storm track but cold source lacking. Honestly, that isn't a terrible look for the Southeast. That cutoff around the Nov 17th time frame could be the first buckle in the jet which ushers in big changes over NA. We will see.