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might be what to watch for upstate NY/VT in the next 3-5 hours

I'd watch the 10:00 PM - 1:00 AM window. If the HRRR is right with that evolving cluster there may be some significant wind damage (assuming storms can root surface-based). That's some insane DCAPE values Very high derecho composite parameter too. Suggestive of increased potential anything becoming organized may develop an organized cold pool, enhancing wind potential.

There is more upstream going in Ontario as well. Looks like some supercell splits here.

Made it to 92 here in PHL. The smoke made the sky a very milky white color... have to say though, the humidity seemed really oppressive, making that 92 feel very very uncomfy. On a side note, Milwaukee, Wi, where my brother lives made it to 99 today. Pretty impressive.

96 with more humidity than yesterday. Glad this is over. Upper 70's-low 80's the rest of the week. Cue the smoke.

Detective huh?

Looks like the Park got a late high of 90 killing my Kalshi bet of 89 lmao

The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

We can get Canadian smoke but not their t-storms unfortunately

Firing now. Was modeled to be an evening developer.

What a bust so far; bust bust bust

92. Nothing special. Doesn't seem to get very hot here. Hottest so far this season is 95.

Yeah he’s the dude up here for on camera Mets.

High of 87, no rain today.

Is Jancock the main TV met up there? When I was as up there traveling they seemed to be the main tv met up. Started they career with Hammer in HFD

Didn’t all the CAMs show more activity in Maine than has happened? It’s ok if it “busts”, no one saw the smoke coming. This has been a pretty hyped day, to the point that people who don’t follow weather have been talking about it up here. We were supposed to be like 90F today and instead low-80s. That has to matter. Our time in VT has always been like 9p-1a though… but like Tyler in the post, I thought Maine would’ve been lit up already.

Seems like a ..

I never was a fan of big heat for this week… Granted, I didn’t see smoke being an issue in the day’s running up but I never liked the structure of the ridge and the way it was collapsing like that. It looked like a one afternoon of heat and then we get bullied south. Having said that even that looks like it stepping off a bit Go wonder models were just over amplified

By Indy, do you mean Indianapolis? I don’t think Indiana ever had daylight savings unless they changed that

As insignificant as it is, it’s nice to finally see at least for the moment a few clouds surviving off the Africa coast.

SPC is clearly hedging off though Words like “unclear“ or pretty good indicators that things aren’t really looking the way they were yesterday and how could they be… Might be about time for them to admit they were just as smoke boned as everybody else’s forecast.

Bust in ME? The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME. Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall. The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

Jancock unsure