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Yeah, this is where I can admit that this is way beyond my pay grade and that real mets are on a whole nother level thats basically magic. Though from trying to piece together what I can understand and the SPC analysis page you're basically saying that the primary max stripe is driven by the 700-500mb FGEN (as it overlaps with DGZ better) and strong 850mb FGEN and this setups somewhere in Central VA. Meanwhile NOVA and the like are displaced from the higher level FGEN and will use the 850mb instead. While I don't understand the math or physics behind it should I generally assume the 700-500 FGEN will just progress along with the wind barbs (which does seem to place it oddly northward to even fringe me?)

33/21 at 10:30 (Haymarket)

I said it a couple of months ago, but I still think the Reaper will make a few appearances this season.

Is this thing spilling north of Richmond at the last second? I can’t tell if that’s the overall idea in the main thread, or if DC folks are trolling. .

Just like summer, looking forward to some Iowa sloppy seconds Sat night/Sunday. 1-2" refresher looking likely. Euro likely overdoing amounts in the 48-72hr ranger per usual.

8.1° Terrible

31/15 dry af

It’ll be a deathbed for some if they get fringed. KIDDING, KIDDING!

20F, feels like 9F.

I can make this Saturday’s. But have a wedding next Saturday the 13th. But as Paul said…if more guys can make the 13th instead…by all means switch it up. No worries.

We shall see.

Wait seriously? Wow...It's crazy how your yard and mine have suffered the same thing since 2016 despite you being way north of me! Just a frustratingly weird 10 years of this.

As EJ eluded too, take a look at the 850mb temps. and also take a look at 925mb while you are at it too because the layer of greatest importance lies within the 925-700mb zone for this setup. Winds within 850mb are convergent across the Mid Atlantic, especially along and east of the BR. There's a nice 160+ kt jet max just off to our north with RER dynamics positioned over the Central and Southern Mid Atlantic. This is important in terms of ascent being maximized within the DGZ, allowing for better dendritic growth regimes to materialize with banding structures likely situated within the stronger 850mb FGEN and up around 700-500mb FGEN maxima due to the stronger mid-level vorticity advection passing to the south of the M/D. Where these two areas intersect will be the stripe of the higher totals, mainly southwest VA through true Central VA, perhaps sneaking into far SoMD. Further north, the 850mb FGEN will be the main show and where that sets up will likely spur some 1-2" totals which looks to be along and south of Rt50, and maybe as far north as I-70, although it will be close! Fun little setup here! Wish we had a little more amplitude in the mid-level pattern, but beggars can't be choosers!

I’m not feeling anything but a car-topper here in Hoco, but damn I love your energy. Always have! My kids who are grown ass adults now tell me they still like to go on Jebwalks in the snow.

There aren't grass tips here. But if there were. Any snow during the Christmas season enhances the mood. Also the cold glistening type of snow is more typical of mid winter than early December.

Certainly not. It's as NYC metro as LBI NJ. Neither place would I call NYC metro. Geographically Bellayre is SENY. It's upstate to the 85% of the population that lives south of it. It's downstate to the 85% of the land area of NY that lies at a latitude above it.

Certainly not bad being in Stafford for this one.

Looks good for us, we are gonna be in a good spot for this one. Imagine that

That's the HoCo/MoCo super deathband.

What kind of adaptive skiing do you do? I started teaching adaptive skiing at Jiminy Peak last year. It's amazing the variety of options out there to get almost anyone who wants to ski out there!

Sounds like Neeli Bendapudi has personally involved herself in the Campbell pursuit. This woman once fired an Athletic Director for not working with her while having her own resignation already drawn-up. Ruthless.

I thought you would start with snow way up there.. sad.

Mike is completely wrong about big SOI drops in winter corresponding to strengthening/energizing the STJ and causing big east coast snow storms and arctic outbreaks. That correlation only works during El Niños not during La Niñas. So Mike is spreading false info just like JB does for likes, follows, attention, retweets and subscribers And furthermore, he’s dead wrong about another thing, we have not been seeing classic split-flow. That is an El Niño feature where the jet splits into 2 branches off the west coast with a dominant southern stream (STJ) and a very weak polar jet. We have a very dominant northern branch and a very muted southern branch, typical of a Niña

38F and light rain just started...let's see where we will cool to

Ahhh ok.i stand corrected.. Oops.. I didn't have the chance to check the ensemble members.. my mistake lol