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A bit different antecedent moisture conditions now than before the last tropical system that came this way to say the least. Scary dry IMBY, definitely want the rain but not the wind.

So sorry to hear of the loss of your Mom, CG. Praying for peace for y'all during this most difficult of times. Lost my Mom 6 years ago and my Dad in 1998. Seems like forever some days and some days it seems like yesterday. Hang in there my friend.

Here is a bit of a "banter" post

Honestly I hope this thing moves east. We need the rainfall. May cause minor flooding but it is what it is.

I hope you are correct. I hope it rains Sat night to Sunday night. It is looking more likely a pretty strong storm to hit the mobile bay area and then move northward and the rains spread out oVer TN/NC

There have been a lot of notable "I" names retired this century alone. Ian, Ida, Igor, Ike, Iris, Isabel, Irene, Ivan, Ingrid, Irma. That's 10 out of 25 years, and you can throw in a greek I as well, Iota in 2020.

Recon found 990 extrapolated; I would guess 995 or so on the drop, based on the last two passes.

So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it? It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post: Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

A shame the rains seemingly keep happening on the weekends, but we still need it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

WB 12Z ensemble precip. Totals through Monday afternoon.

riding it hoping this is a good omen for a winter of insane cutters

Afternoon updated 5 Day QPF forecast is out.

Those are beautiful web cam shots indeed. It's good to see at least a little bit of snow on those high peaks. Here on the northern front range we don't even have that. I fish on the Poudre River quite a bit and it is basically a trickle now. Many lakes and reservoirs are drying up. If this winter doesn't at least start making a dent in this drought, things are going to get pretty ugly water-wise.

Agree with this. I've lived on the front range since the '60's. It was fairly common to have early snow storms in October, or even in September (September 1971 was memorable). We would almost always have 1 or 2 snows in the books by Halloween. Now the front range often doesn't see its first snow until November, or even later. Looking back, IMHO things shifted around the year 2000 to warmer and drier. Bummer for those of us who don't like that!

It's a start!

The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

What a difference a few hours make. From a broad and weak low to a clearly aligning and tighter center. Winds are responding almost immediately. If it can avoid dry air entrainment as it organizes today, I would favor a peak at major status.

Looks like we're all in agreement w/the mid month weather pattern... 67F/51F Sunny

Some things never change.

https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:

Seems to be right on the verge of becoming a hurricane based on the latest pass. No new pressure measurement so they may have missed the center.

A toasty 44.6 here for the low