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29 for the low, heavy frost

Yeah heavy frost. It basically sat a little below freezing all night. 29.6°

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

Welcome home

Heavy frost got down to 28

lol, those were the temps I had when I went to Vermont in early March.

Pretty frosty out there this morning

34 degrees with 7 mph wind.

39 here

Are you new to the Northeast ?

Low of 13 here. Coldest I can find in the UP is 5 degrees just nw of here @ the Yellow Dog/Eagle Mine station. Sun and mid 40's should make for a pretty decent day.

30F here just before dawn.

Frosty. Thought we were done with this crap.

Yet another WWB is loading up for early May….

Freeze and frost advisories up for a large portion of NC for tonight. Well I didn't have to wait on the frost. Currently 31 degrees with frost. Again an impressive cold front.

An early low of 36 imby. Temp has been rising since the 3am hour and now up to 42.

28F here in E CT

Looking like we get a few more days in the 80's again on Thur and Fri potentially. Been a roller coaster temp wise since March. I think for my town we've already had 10 days 80+ including 2 90+ which seems like quite a lot for only reaching mid April. But we've also had a lot of really cold below average days too. Can't really remember a Spring that's bounced between temps this much in a while.

Hi all.....been out for a bit. 28*and icy at Pi2.

36 right now and a light coat of frost on car tops this early morning.

See attachment It is said that for ML models, the equations of motion and thermodynamics are not satisfied, so that is going to lead to unrealistic output and egregious errors at times. Not that physics-based models are immune to these same problems, but we often know why they occur due to the limitations of simulating the atmosphere best, as one example. For ML models, does that same apply? That is, would we be able to detect why they are wrong for a given forecast? How far do ML models not satisfying equations go? For instance, Navier-Stokes? The paper states: "New forecast methods based on statistical estimation, including neural networks and ML, are neither designed nor constrained to yield dynamically coherent, physically consistent evolutions of the atmosphere." The above would appear to be a huge problem. The paper also discusses ML models lacking in resolution detail, and give a more broad overview. That's fine within itself, but modeling has come so far, getting the broad strokes right as to what is going on, say synoptically, is no longer an issue. What matters most now are the details and fine-tuning on a more local level and shorter time frames in weather forecasting. That's what the public/partners want and demand. How vulnerable are ML models to chaos theory? More or less than physics-based? Another item suggested in the paper, it seems that ML models can not exist or do well/improve without physics-based models. This would ask the question, how much of a statistical database of weather history/analogs do we need for an ML model to perform better? bams-BAMS-D-25-0214.1.pdf

Currently 39 under the deck...35.2 at the PWS just up the road. Wife and I were going to wait going into frost mode until tonight but we may be a day too late as most garden plants uncovered. I just came back in from bringing our pineapple plants inside as a preventative measure. Brought my Meyer's lemon tree inside Saturday night to avoid the rush tonight. Gardening with North Carolina weather is so much fun.

Snow weenies rejoice! GFS V17 goes from 13 to 9 km for horizontal resolution in Oct. Scott counting the days now for the first day of meteorological winter! LOL. pns26-29_Science_for_GFSv17.pdf

Pretty pic Mark. While it’s not Aruba, It was 90 here Thursday lol….sleet and rain at 4:30 pm and it was 39.

0.11 inches of rain today. Better than 0, but still need way more than that!