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Ok, 3 things going on here: 1) The winter suite in the NBM is only updated at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z. So, if you're showing an 18Z cycle for this medium range case, it's as "stale" as you can have it. 2) In the medium range, the only inputs are the 50 ECMWF ensemble members, the 30 GEFS members, and the GFS. It doesn't even include the deterministic ECMWF run (don't ask). Some of the CMC members are now included in the parallel. Here is what you're going to hate: the NBM does not yet receive the 06/18Z ECWMF data. And at 19Z, the ECMWF ensemble has not yet arrived. So, the 18z cycle in question is still using the very snowy 00Z ECMWF ensemble. That's what's driving the big numbers. 3) One additional factor: bias correction is performed for QPF for the global model inputs, and the bias-corrected QPF is used by the NBM winter suite. The bias correction, based on the based 90 days of forecasted and observed QPF in this case is bumping up the QPF for the event, as it believes that the ECMWF ensemble has been running dry. So, you have some inputs with high raw precip values that are being further adjusted up. That's why the 18Z NBM looks so snowy. The 01Z cycle coming out soon will use the 12Z ECMWF ensemble and the 18Z GEFS; based on what I see in the QPF of those systems, my guess is the NBM snowfall will be a fair amount lower, although the bias correction might boost it a bit more than I expect.

Do you remember how we missed that one?

14.5" Sunday 3.25" Monday 17.75" 2-day total Townsend, MA

The cold this week is truly historic and incredibly anomalous, especially considering our warming climate.

Nice. Let’s help: https://mushroomfx.com/

And so, will it snow again? Will it be a HECS? Stay tuned, as those are the days of our lives.....

We have our differences of opinion, but hes a good dude and id like him to stick around. So @TauntonBlizzard2013, before making a post downplaying or calling off a storm, I strongly recommend doing shrooms first to break down the mental barriers, view yourself objectively and ask “am I downplaying this because i genuinely believe what I’m saying, or is it a form of coping”?

I love you this year. Too bad you only post a few times a week

Finally a storm to track with no hype on social media yet. .

For our storm thread

So far, what I know for sure ... YYZ reported 46.2 cm snow and 17.8 mm liquid equivalent (ratios of 26:1 which is consistent with low temps and lake effect). Downtown Toronto reported 20.8 mm liquid. At the same ratio their snowfall would be around 54 cm. The tweet shown in the thread earlier says 62 cm snow with 47 in six hours. I assume it refers to the downtown observation site, if not, it was observed very close to there (it is a five minute walk from Queens Park to Trinity College, unless you're with a pretty co-ed of course) ... but enough about that ... I will see the snow depth changes tomorrow. Both YYZ and downtown had 15-17 cm on the ground before this storm began. The delta snow depth will be an indication of snowfall but can estimate the settle factor from the YYZ reports. Looks like no additional snow today. 46.2 17.8

This one seems more Jan 2010 than yesterday [emoji23] Just kidding. Hopefully the 5th cape storm will work out

Only 17? What a bust.

I'm sure. Democratization of the models has taken off exponentially, it feels like since last year. I know that probably sounds funny coming from hobbyists-at-best like me. Put it this way: if you told me even two years ago that in 2026 my wife would be yelling to me from the other room that 'my guy is saying that the GFS is giving us a lot of snow but that the NAM has more sleet' I would have laughed. Yet here we are.

That’s great! Perhaps the beginning of a resurgence in Methuen.

Collection of several 18z EPS members pretty far west for the weekend.

Its one of my favorite childhood memories. That family grocery store is no more. Giant came to town and the owner sold a long held family business. Now its a combination physical therapy office and a Dollar General. (I frequent both) shh, don’t tell. Haha Fairview didn’t Plow my bosses neighborhood until like 11 today. Went by on my way home. Will be first on my list of to dos tomorrow. They did his mailbox and driveway apron dirty. Even after I had cleaned both up with enough space they could angle the plow to not plaster them both. Ugh.

40dbz echoes in that band when it was in your area. Crazy!

3” new. Storm total 20.5” final.

3.5" from round 2 today 20.75" storm total

LWX AFD mentions Wednesday as the go/no-go day

The thing is… I read every last word of his post like it was a soap opera. Do it again Psu.

Had to be over 3”/hr easily. Must be 4”/hr down there.

1.0” today 17.5” storm total Southbury CT