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GSP’s hourly forecast graph has about 7” in the unifour region.

Not pictured is the dry air at 850mb.

That's a good bet, but I'd wait until Friday morning before making a final decision.

I've got no clue in that area but highlands is nice and sets up in elevation. There's still a lot to iron out.

Maybe that'll bring the storm back.

High tide frozen foam on the Delaware Bay at Broadkill Beach.

By tomorrow we can probably close this thread

Thats a great catch dude. That first RH map is very telling

I'm just wondering out loud here if this this will end up being something that looks like this when it blows up and makes its closest pass.

I believe the RGEM is 3 basically.

Why do you hope that?

I asked Google Gemini to take a look at the 12z WeatherNext model and compare it to 06z. First, it made up a bunch of stuff. Then it made up more stuff. After insulting it literally a dozen times, I was able to get it to at least pretend to give me some data that was plausible. Here, I asked it about trends in the precip shield: The 06z Shield: Showed the edge of the precipitation (roughly 0.01"–0.05" liquid) flirting with the DC/Baltimore line. The 12z Shield: Pushed that shield about 40–60 miles further southeast. The 12z panel for 84 hours out shows DC entirely in the "dry zone" (the white space on the map), with the moisture field cut off near Fredericksburg and the Chesapeake Bay.

man..hahahaha just saw the Euro surface i mean to successfully tease every coast from PWM down to the Va Capes like that 96 hour frame, simultaneously, some 800 miles in one contiguous arc of 'imagine if that was onshore' is really quite an achievement. how the hell did they do that -

Have you noticed the trends in the GFS and GEFS and looked at nearly ALL the other guidance? You and I are cooked on this one in Augusta County unfortunately.

Maybe your part of CT like living in Springfield and saying it's bye for Massachusetts

In CLT suburbs. Will be sharing with my wife for....reasons. She will likely respond with the confidence reading.

Weary and wary of Debbie's. How many times have we seen deform bands appear 100s of miles from the center.

I will take the NBM because it still gives me snow. Lol. https://media.tenor.com/efJ_7qoDAQkAAAAM/animalhouse-over.gif

Still thinking we are looking at a 3-6 inch event with some higher localized totals.

yeah that's Kuchera so it takes that into account. We start around 14-16:1 and by the end are toward 25:1.

Counterclockwise rotation of stronger ones points it more n-nnw

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oh, it's a failed phase... absolutely that's what that is... What we've been collectively looking at in the runs for the past few days. Seems this was not taking place when these were prior to 2 days ago, but has since... so be it. It's a stream bi-pass... why that is...? Not entirely certain but it looks like the U component of the navier stokes is too fast for the total wave unification to take form/merge... that's the mathematics in how speed fucks up a phase. It's what this looks like - doesn't have to be the final solution. just sayn'