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The warm pattern begins the 16th

exactly! Those stupid models too. Who's going to believe charts?

Apps ?

10-day looks promising. Can you imagine being stupid enough to install in April?

Yeah looks like a real beauty.

18 ZGFS has a a monster ridge at the end of that run

Yeah, I don’t mean to come across all instructional . I’m actually just sick of it frankly ha ha I make it no secret that I am equally interested in summer weather phenomenon, just as I am about deep winter phenomenon “in the winter” …not when it’s May and the pattern tries to act like it’s winter. fuck that. Anyway, I track and study the synoptics of heat waves and so forth. It’s just something I’m interested in Man. I realize we’re in the minority here those of us that like summer phenomenon. Convection being part of all that, etc..

Summer looks cold and rainy too.

So chilly but with summer daylight well past 8pm, it feels like it should be warmer.

update

2009-10 is a perfect example that proves that a strong el nino winter can be cold and snowy.

Yeah I don't doubt that, but my point was that said outcome lands nowhere near consistent 80's and 90's. More like a shot at hitting a few random heaters. We'll see, hope to be wrong ofc

No doubt it will feel more like summer once the pj retreats and weakens, that is not in question lol

12z GFS same time

It’s no secret that I’ve never been a fan of human bias of any kind (for something, against something, etc.) affecting the content and tone of communication, but unfortunately that’s human nature to an extent. I think it’s best to talk about things going on whether you like that they’re occurring or not rather than taking only about things you like.

Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be significant. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great article on the nasty weeds we all continue to kill . It’s a battle , but we overcome https://share.google/ATiD7pMfdMiTlTOQD

Well no, nothing "extravagant" ... let's just start with ceasing the SPV reload up in Canada, along with a more seasonal relaxation of the polar jet which has remained active now later than normal. Relaxing those two would probably jolt our temperatures by 15+ F in the baseline mean, which ... might actually seem pricey when there's mid/late May sun upright hammering down.

Absolutely. My serious climbing days (Katahdin, Little Bigelow, Goose-eye) are done, and my most recent significant adventure was Oquossuc Bald, between Rangeley and Mooselook Lakes in 2020 with SIL and grandkids ages 5 to 14, left the 2-y.o home. Unfortunately, that November Saturday was spitting snow with lousy visibility. Only 1.3 miles and 900+ elev gain but most comes in the rocks of the final 0.3 miles. Cloudy 50s with some drops, good day to help replace the ramp at our church.

https://x.com/jmelmed23/status/2052816907913331086?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

thanks

36 on a 41 forecast this morning.

Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some.

It's no more pathetic than having a constant warm bias. Anthonys response originated from bluewave literally saying the reason all time historic winters havent been broken the past decade is a warming globe. Thats an insane position. So we're supposed to get the most severe winter on record every decade then topple it the next decade? Some of the things that were said in these enso threads the past few years were absolutely ridiculous and proven immediately untrue the following winters, whether you want to call it a forecast or not. The bias in general is why SO many people dont post here anymore.

Been nice to get a pretty cool stretch the past couple weeks.