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Who says the NW flow will be all dry?

They just might get it.

Thanks, will email WFO GYX for the complete top 20 list of PWM storm surges.

As folks noted in the thread, with the return of some arctic air, the past couple of days have been a bit too cold to easily entice one out onto the slopes after Saturday gave us that taste of spring warmth. I was last out on the mountain on Saturday, and I finished up my ski tour around noon. On that descent, the freezing line had risen to 2,400’ in the Bolton Valley area, and from that point down the surface of the powder had become sticky and essentially unskiable. I was curious to know just how far the freezing levels had gone, and with temperatures rising into the upper 40s F in the lower valleys on Saturday once the sun came out, I figured the freezing level must have risen even further. I had some time today, so I decided to head out for a tour on the Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry Network to assess the quality of the unconsolidated snow. With the way the powder had become wetted from at least 2,400’ and below, I wasn’t too optimistic about what I was going to find with respect to the quality of the powder skiing, but I figured worst case I’d get a workout in anyway, and I could always make a quick descent via the Bryant Trail if the powder was a crusty mess. Today I headed up in the midafternoon timeframe, and temperatures were around 35 F in the valley in the 200’-500’ elevation range, I hit the freezing line around 1,000’ on the Bolton Valley Access Road, and up in the Bolton Valley Village at 2,000’ the temperature was around 30 F. Right from the start of my tour, I could immediately tell that we were still in business with respect to the quality of the powder. There was a light melt crust on the surface, but it was nearly insignificant and the overall snowpack surface was really still holding onto that same consolidated powder that I’d encountered out there on Saturday. So, while those cold temperatures of the past couple of day may not have been appealing for getting outside, it turns out that they were beneficial with respect to the quality of the snow. The dry arctic air let any wetting of the snow dry out, and the powder really recovered quite nicely. For today’s tour I headed up past Bryant Cabin and onto Heavenly Highway, topping out around 2,900’. I focused my descent on low and moderate angle terrain based on what I’d learned from my tour on Saturday, and those pitches definitely delivered. You still wanted to avoid any terrain that had been hit by sun or wind, because those effects has certainly degraded the powder surface, but as long as you did that and avoided southerly aspects, there were plenty of surfy powder turns. The melt crust did get a bit more noticeable below the 2,400’-2,500’ level, so below those elevations you had to be a bit more diligent about avoiding areas exposed to any sun. Ironically, as I thought I might be descending on packed terrain today if the powder had been shot, packed terrain was to be avoided if possible. Terrain that had seen traffic during the warmth was too packed to recover its winter character below a certain elevation. It was slick and hard, and it was simply best to just ski in snow off to the side. On my ascent, I had noticed that people had made separate skin tracks off to the side of the packed areas, and I didn’t know why at first, but on the descent it became more obvious – it was just a much better ski surface. I had actually even used those sidetracks on my ascent a bit as well because the main traffic areas with packed snow were somewhat slick and my skins even lost grip at times. Our next snowstorm is currently ongoing, so we’ll have to see how much snow we pick up and how things shape up with respect to this next layer. This storm may deliver snow on the denser side, but I’m actually not too worried about the powder gradient getting noticeably upside down because there’s already decent density in the surface snow at this point.

Pretty content with third if this is it. But hope the AIFS is right and I get blown out.

Buy it and take serious...not even looking at models yet, but just basing off of my seasonal analogs....be stunned if March passes us by without hell to pay after this incoming warmth.

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this: 2011-03-23 40 32 36.0 -8.8 29 0 0.87 T 0 2011-03-24 44 30 37.0 -8.2 28 0 0.09 1.0 1 2011-03-25 42 28 35.0 -10.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-26 40 26 33.0 -12.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-27 45 28 36.5 -9.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-28 45 26 35.5 -11.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-29 49 31 40.0 -6.9 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-30 53 36 44.5 -2.8 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-03-31 43 37 40.0 -7.7 25 0 0.13 T 0

That's a serious signal on the AIFS. It's in clown range but man that would be sweet.

Yeah, that was crazy too. That pic was the one other pic I thought could be consistent / supportive of the telegraph one. To your point, the article did state that poles were not as tall as todays, I just wish they had an idea of how tall they actually were. But even if they were 12 feet off the ground that would still be impressive. Who knows, I wonder too was it snow that was atop a previous snowpile or something? But again that pic of the house looked legit, and I'm sure 70 mph winds with prolonged heavy snow over wide open plains I'm sure could yield some tremendous drifts.

Today's splits: EWR: 38 / 31 (-4) 0.38 NYC: 35 / 29 (-7) 0.32

At least you still have snow falling, we're stuck with Kevin's saggy boob pine trees down here

plenty of zr, very icy on the side roads and sidewalks.

Flew to Florida this morning so no measurement. From looks of the ring camera during day it couldn't have ever be more than .5 inch if that. Lots of 31-32 rain/freezing rain after that.

We all know that isn't going to happen. The sun angle is too high and the ground/temps are too warm. Any precip that falls from now until October will be rain.

24.9° -SN 4.6” Flakes are a bit rimed…maybe even a little refrozen. CC mix line is near CON, but that 1.3° tilt is showing a little lower CC overhead.

Ill bet a chick fil a meal this will be cut in half in a few days then turns into a apps runner

Hopefully we get some decent rain before drying out in the northwest flow. Gotta hope it’s over-modeled. .

Brunswick 23S (2005-2025), Newton 11 SW (2003-2025), Newton 8W (2003-2025) are warming about 0.9°/decade. That matches Georgia's statewide warming during 2003-2025/2005-2025. Watkinsville 5 SSE (2005-2025) is warming 0.6°/decade, which is somewhat slower than the statewide average.

Let’s go 50s and 60s!

Been stuck at 27 here in Westfield the last several hours. Lots of freezing drizzle

never got above 30 here and it has been liquid for hours now, albeit light but still.

I'm down, gonna look nice in the morning with everything glazed.

maybe the models weren't that far off with the ZR, at least .20" of accretion here, and looks like plenty to go, stuck at 29°...man my deck is a skating rink