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STS can and do occur w/ SSTs as low as 15 C. And you can get hurricanes below 26 C easily. That thing in Jan 2023 S of New England that NHC ignored operationally that had a persistent, defined eye and remarkably deep convection for Jan was over 21-23 C SSTs when it formed, and it actually looked best when it well SE of ACK over SSTs closer to 18 C! NHC in retrospect called it a 60 kt STS, but you look at satellite? Let me put it this way, they have called things *far* worse or lame-looking fully tropical cyclones! Dvorak T-numbers got as high as 4.5 (77 kt). Funniest things I found is that while this thing was there, we got a period of S- in SNE!

EURO AI says "Remember the 1991 Perfect Storm?" It takes this storm and retrogrades it across long island from Friday - Sunday. Would be awesome if it actually did this.

Can't deny the ECMWF's consistency. Get ready. Perhaps the nastiest nor'easter on record for Sep for SNE. I can't recall anything like this fcst in Sep here. Seems like @CoastalWx is looking for reason for it not to happen or at very least taking the ho-hum approach. No passion or excitement. It's not like the models are all over the place (minus the GFS, but no surprise there), so a big event prob looks quite high.

You must be new here lol.

Well... that's certainly interesting.

Another item on Polo. It is rare you see a hurricane in the deep tropics in the NHEMI bodily move SE like Polo has for the past 12 hr. No evidence of a trochoidal eye wobble yet. I hope there is a recon soon. Would be a shame to miss it peak intensity!

Absolutely pouring here this morning

"All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol.

I was saying well before the season that the Ravens weakest part was WR. Having a rookie 3rd round draft pick as your number 2 is not good, and now he's on IR. It's no surprise NO won, they were actually getting hot and the end of last season, the 2nd year QB has been doing good. I picked them to win their division this year.

0.00 Was supposed to rain right ? Congratulations Winchester area !

AI euro coming in west of 18z so far

All kinds of cells firing up now. Interesting since it's in the middle of the night.

Yep getting one right now.

Congratulations, did anybody give you a medal? You definitely deserve one after all that hard work.

Strong storms forming to the south tonight.

That would be a good start to reducing the deficit along all coastal ME.

Thanks for posting this. For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why? 1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile! 2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0! 3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26: So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022! Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile: Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

GFS twins are big hits especially in eastern NE.