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Blowing through pretty quick though.

You keep making my point. Thanks

It’s about the exciting things you can do in those seasons weather rather than the weather itself. A lot more to do in spring/summer than winter.

Here is a pic from my window this morning. Snow is too heavy for my Polaris Ranger to plow, so really hoping for some sun today.

Finally

Ensembles look warmer than the OP EURO out in fantasyland.

Totally different winter patterns. My average is 24" snowfall. In 1998, I received 33 inches. In 22-23, I received 1.50". There is more to a winter than the ENSO pattern and west or east based and strength.

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European).

Nice heavy downpour in Asheville

I agree...

This time of year when we can still get large synoptic scale events you want to rack up the rain totals. Soon we’ll be relying on daytime convection and 95% of the time that favors inland.

Did you even look at the Euro..??

Yeah that’s a reasonable starting point. Super nino is bad news for those of us living in northern areas.

Huh, there’s clearing out near 1-81 and even in Reston (I’m back from uva for the summer) there was a peak of filtered sunshine. Seems we may be ahead of schedule.

Awesome! Hardly anything in Asheville.

Also included 2 villages, Oxbow and Allagash, with Clayton Lake in the middle of the area. Total population <500, about 0.2 per sq. mile. 78/35 yesterday, maple buds bursting, oak not yet, white ash still asleep.

This batch of rain is hauling - looks like it will be clear of all of us in the next hour or so.

Line is shrinking in width and coverage as it moves east and is picking up speed should be east of most of the region by evening - this has been the trend lately and the drought conditions are getting worse - lawns are very dry and not growing as fast as usual this time of Spring

8" storm total here. By far the most I've seen in May in my 19 years here. 3.5" was my record.

Looks like I'll pull an extra inch from this morning's stuff. So 8" Even with that, still has me under 50% of normal for the season.

Either way it will be nothing like it was modeled to be several days ago....as you said yesterday. Most of the area was modeled at .75 to 1.25" and now we will struggle to reach .25" in most places. Does not look overly wet over the coming 1-2 weeks. Dry periods outdoing the wet periods for better than 18 months now.

Today has potential if it's close. Who cares if it's sloppy, low visibility, full of trees and hills? In the South we go mess or we go home, lol! Worst case you get a country drive, and get back in time for the NBA playoffs. Yeah that overcast is a real problem south of the boundary. It'd be acceptable north of the boundary until early afternoon. South of the boundary really needs some heating soon to start destabilizing. Lapse rates are there above the low-level crud. Yeah the LLJ is weakening and retreating north. However upper-level winds remain stronger than what is necessary. Absolutely need the outflow boundary to locally back winds and create favorable SRH. 10% is probably right for just the boundary*. Otherwise looks like messy storm modes. Even on the boundary storm interaction could be a problem. What's new in the South? * I see two boundaries. Yes along I-20 is the coastal front or some other dewpoint differential. It lumbers north more in Alabama thanks to less overcast (still I-20). Agree that's the one for the best chance of discrete sups and tor. Synoptic lumbering front is in North Mississippi and North Alabama (almost Tenn border). It'll have storms, but more interaction and more problems. Also if one overlays the hatched hail with the hatched tornado, indirect way of looking for sups, it favors Miss. 10% in Bama could be messy mode. Again, they all could be messy. If I'm in JAN or BHM I'd plan on wrapping up work a few minutes early to chase. If it looks like crap enjoy a rainy evening watching sports at home. As for me, no plans to depart Chatty.

yeah HRRR has it falling apart-we will see