All Activity

If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015. Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered.

The Canadian run is actually pretty cold most of the US in the winter. The look is -WPO ish. We haven't really had a big El Nino with a -WPO. The El Ninos starting in 2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1957, 1951 are neutral/positive WPO net. The El Ninos starting 2014, 2009, 2004, 1994, 1991, 1977, 1976, 1969, 1963, 1958, 1953 are neutral/negative. 1982 was +WPO early, -WPO late winter (Dec v Feb) but mostly positive. 2009 is the strongest -WPO El Nino DJF, but even then its driven by a strongly negative -WPO in December. For the stronger El Ninos (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24), the -WPO months are: Dec 2009, Feb 1992, Feb 1983, Feb 1958. A lot of La Ninas in the South/Southwest are predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots - think all the recent snow down to the Gulf Coast, Texas in Feb 2021, etc. I'd expect a similar type of thing this year, but for the Northern US - predominantly warm with sharp, brief cold shots. The southern US should see mostly 'weak' cold but with brief sharp warm ups.

Thanks. If ORH can hit upper 90s, we're looking at real deal heat.

Can't plot MaxT for 18z for whatever reason, but a few for Thu... MHT 102 CON 101 BAF 103 OWD 103 BED 102 BOS 101 ORH 97 BDL 103 HFD 101 EWR 104 LGA 103 PHL 103 BWI 104 DCA 103

Not sure it's as sure as that. Everyone is jumping on like that 5/5 were warm in some skewed logic of Super being a different entity from Weak. I think -SLP in the warm season that we have going now 60-90N supports more Winter -AO. There is a global temperature jump happening I think and that could bring Winter warmer just about everywhere, but I don't it's as ENSO-related as people think.

I was in Davis recently and I looked up Davis’s all time record high and it said 89. Is that accurate? If so, that’s crazy.

Even though this winter looks mild , im looking forward to the active STJ.

Thanks Nostradamous

Its July 1 LOL

It was groooosssss today. 86-87/73-74 all afternoon. Very high DPs for this area. Also, looking solid Thursday for our first 90+ here.

Even though this winter looks mild , im looking forward to the active STJ.

I think any regular knows my position. I won’t say it again to not trigger Maestro.

Like.. Restraints on power usage?

Post em if you got em. Watching closely here. Hoping for a light show.

Can’t lie, it’s been a long time since I’ve been so down on HU activity in the short and medium time scales. SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic, unfavorable subseasonal variability, ripping ENSO conditions, and general early season hostility are slamming the door shut on deep tropical development for the foreseeable future. The most recent lemon is a good example of what we can get until a lucky MJO-CCKW linkup occurs with more encouraging climatology… mediocre subtropical spin ups. Blah

That's a mean looking MCS dropping out of Canada. My dad might have to abandon his campsite for the second time today. Oof.

Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December.

Nola is worse then Tijuan Walker they have a problem

83 again today for my high. Much cooler this morning with a 65 than the day before. I see signs in the medium to longer range a general troughiness over head. Once we get past Independence Day I believe a more unsettled pattern sets in.

No compete for the Orioles tonight. Another bad one.

Is there any wildfire smoke in the area? I smell it but assuming it’s local. And I heard about the big fire Rosedale but this smells like a campfire and not mixed with chemicals

I dont have numbers as ive been at a pinball tournament. But you could literally feel the change in the air over the past few hours in Charlotte. Went from being "reaonable" to just absolutely soupy.

18z mav went wild

It’s really the south wind that does BTV in. There’s like a localized nocturnal jet that can even strengthen overnight on the VT side of the Lake. You’ll see most stations calm (like Plattsburgh on the NY side of the Champlain Valley), while BTV is steady 15mph gusting 25 in like tropical breezes. And the temp will be like 86F at midnight lol.

According to my records, 2026 is actually the 12th driest first half in DC history, but you are correct that the first half of 2023 was even drier, at only 12.32 inches (5th driest). Interestingly, the driest and wettest first halves in DC history each occurred in the 19th century: Driest: 1872 with 10.49 inches Wettest: 1886 with 35.80 inches It should also be noted that calendar years 2023-2025 were each drier than normal, averaging only 36.27 inches annually. However, during 2018-2022 DCA averaged 50.71 inches -- the wettest five consecutive calendar years in DC history.