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I'm glad I covered as much of my garden as possible because we got a couple degrees colder than expected. The airport and the personal stations near me got down to near 30º.

1/2” so far. Good steady rainfall.

It’s snowing! Still on the mountain (some cell service) and it’s alternating between bursts of dendrites and sleety rain. Moss is a bit white. Totally worth the trip.

Nah…Fake.

A thunder shower is a downpour with a rumble or two…that is over in literally a few minutes, a completely benign event. Pretty much what rolled through last night here. Severe weather is not a thunder shower. And any on camera MET who used/uses thunder shower for legit severe weather, should be ashamed of themselves.

Hearing 0.5” of snow fell on LeConte last night.

52 now with .16 rain overnight

HRRR says we start to clear out after noon. A good morning to get stuff done. It’s currently 33 with winds gusting to 28 at dolly sods. And full blown winter conditions in NNE where KMWN is reporting below 0 WCs with snow accumulating.

47/39, time to close the pool

41/34 Hopefully some flakes later. May as well since it’s cold anyway.

Current temp of 50 is the low. Only .12” of rain as the storm line was pretty underwhelming here. Down near freezing the next couple nights, time to bring the palm in for the year. Onward.

My daughter has a tournament in Colebrook lol

Same over here in Rangeley. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Freezing at soccer. Too early for this. Luckily we have 70 into November.

52 here

Yes, still warmer than the Euro for the DJF period averaged out. Each of the winter months in 1997-1998 were very warm. The warmth in December 1997 was focused in the Upper Plains and progressed eastward in January and February. We haven’t had MC forcing going back to the spring and have had no shortage of record warmth across the CONUS. Also remember 1997-1998 super El Niño had no MC forcing and was one of the warmest winters up until that time. So the moral of the story is that nearly anywhere that +30 C warm pool forcing sets up in the tropics is going to produce intervals of record warmth. What you don’t realize is that stations in the CONUS have had 17 DJF months across most winters since the temperature baseline jump in December 2015 exceeding +10 in spots. I am also sure you probably aren’t aware that none of the seasonal models successfully forecast any of these 17 DJF records for the given locations before the month in question began from 1 month or more ahead of when the months began. The Euro forecasts issued on the 5th of each of those months were sometimes even too cool for where the warmest conditions were located. Especially when the warmth was focused from the mid to later portions of those months. It generally did better when the warmth began early in the month and persisted. Heck, you would be hard-pressed to find many model forecasts that showed those areas even +5 or warmer. These record +10 months have occurred under a wide variety of ENSO conditions. While seasonal forecasts can sometimes successfully show the locations of the warmth, they always miss the magnitude of the warmth. Remember our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023-2024 produced a +10 winter averaged out over 3 months in the Upper Midwest. The Euro forecast that region to be near average so it was 10° too cool. So it’s not being controversial or edgy to state that there will probably be multiple +10 months from December to March this winter that none of the seasonal models are indicating right now. The models like the Euro forecast in °C so we have to convert. The warmest it has for this winter near the Northern Tier is +2C or greater. This translates to +3.6° F or warmer. I will take the over on that where it’s currently placing the warmest potential.

Damn. That's quite a bit higher than any of the local mesonet stations.

Refreshingly cool this morning. Lots of freeze warnings up for N/W areas.

Woke up to some light snow but not sticking

Enjoy the only flakes for weeks

0.83" and still raining. Quite a bit more than forecast. Was hoping it would dry out early today but that's not happening.

Brisk 49F in Hotlanta this AM. Was upper 80s to near 90 yersterday. Winds ripped overnight as cold front pushed through.