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Still really like 2001 type of progression the rest of the way....the only pause that the 2018 analog gives me is that I do not feel February will be that warm....2022-2023 second half with a better Pacific may also be apt.

Damn, missed it - we got 1/4" overnight. Was awake and watching TV most of the time it was snowing (12-3 am per the radar), but never looked outside or on-line, lol. With 1.0" the past 2 mornings, we're up to 11.2" for the season.

True but it does have a more impressive -NAO and suppresses the SER more than the GEFS.

GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.

We can definitely snow with this look. EPO ridge amps even more beyond this. GEFS is not bad in this window either but the SER is not quite as suppressed.

We have a little digging out to do.

You have Miami, who hasn't won a title since 2002, Ole Miss who's last title was in the 60's, and Indiana and Oregon, both with no titles. It's refreshing to see this.

Skies beginning to clear bottomed out at 17f last night around 8:30 pm. Currently mostly cloudy with breaks developing in the clouds especially overhead and to the west and northwest. 23f humidity 52% dewpoint 11f Total snowfall overnight into this morning: trace / 0.01" Total snowfall for the year 9.4"

Same. Did better this morning than yesterday.

The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow.

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

Its good to see you've come over to the dark side with me. 6 years plus since detroits seen a storm over 8 inches I think.

Seems the difference between the GEFS dumping the trough out west as opposed to the EPS is the handling of the MJO. While the EPS is essentially in the COD, GEFS is moving to phase 6.

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

Yup. Dusting here as well.

Not bad trends overnight to continue to pull everything east in the medium term.

can confirm a dusting of snow overnight here.

Sucks, because the fantasy snow has been coming to fruition.

Pretty sure this is the coldest I’ve ever seen it snow—very fine flakes under partly cloudy skies at -1.6/-5.0. Not diamond dust. Maybe some moisture from the epic LES off Ontario made it this way. Regardless, very cool.

Im sort of bummed it clouded up last night. Hit 3.9⁰ around 11 before the clouds rolled in, it was definitely going below zero....ended up with a dusting, just enough to have the plows run up and down the neighborhood....the pack is still sled worthy, so all is good here. Kids are having a blast, they were out for hours sledding after sundown because the moon was so bright.

Best part about it is we all understood what he was saying

0.2° Coldest I saw was a -26° up by the NH/VT/QB border.

Phoenix is a high profile city in a rapidly warming region. A focus on Phoenix with respect to the region's changing climate makes good sense. A warming climate leads to an increased frequency of warm temperature records, all other variables notwithstanding. Additional variables include synoptic patterns and the urban heat island effect. Overall, the climatic warming is not unique to Phoenix. Moreover, despite misinformed social media efforts following Phoenix's August-record 118° temperature, the siting of the thermometer is irrelevant. The site has been certified and it is one of only a handful with a backup sensor to assist with validation. It also has an outstanding NWS office that is exceptionally responsive to possible issues when they occasionally arise. Some temperature trends in Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Arizona, and the Southwest are below. Phoenix is in line with Arizona's major cities and not out-of-line with either the entire state of Arizona or the Southwest, which include many rural areas. The modest differences suggest that most of the recent long-term warming is now being driven by the region's changing climate, not factors specific to Phoenix.

A large portion of the West had their warmest December on record. But none of the areas in the East that were cold approached their coldest December on record. This has been a common theme in recent years with the warm departures being more impressive than the cold departures on a month to month basis. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026 Everybody can Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow The month-to-date temperature departure from normal for the Contiguous U.S. is +3.9F. If this is how the month ends, December 2025 would finish as the 4th warmest December on record (1895-present). 4 of the top 5 would include 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's as if something has changed. 11:47 AM · Dec 29, 2025 Everybody can