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We love the maps!

Eh I think 3-6” gets a warning usually and 2-4״ just seems to have such a boom potential on pretty much all guidance

Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6".

More tucked members

Good advice S74…….. what concerns me is folks might see the rain as evidence of a bad forecast, go out and be caught, unprepared, when the system explodes. Stay well, as always ….

You guys definitely were forecasted even the models had you in the good snows. The suppression was epic unfortunately.

"Pappy" (me) has his granddaughter at ZooAmerica this afternoon. What a beautiful day and loving the new guidance! Love being out the day before a snowstorm in shorts!

I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs

Not even sure that’s heavy enough for euro/rgem. Very conservative inland.

I was incorrect. The 15z srefs use 12z NAM initialization. However, tracking it last day or so it seems the next NAM run matches the prior NMB run. Not exactly the amounts, but the axis of its precip. Could just be a coincidence I’m not sure. We’ll see!

My parents' who are in their mid-80s live less than a mile From the coast in central CT. Heading up there first thing in the AM to "help them" and chase. An act of mercy and self interest. Bringing the DFH 120.

Dunno if this is more from LE... but... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ017>019-025>028-034>036-042-049>053-221130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Mount Union, Danville, DuBois, Altoona, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Berwick, Bedford, Laporte, Huntingdon, Selinsgrove, Clearfield, Sunbury, Mifflintown, State College, Shamokin, Lewistown, and Chambersburg 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands.

Yeah, someone around 84 is getting buried. I'm really excited for tonight's mesos to try and get a feel for where the best bands could set up

Where they were talking about blizzard warnings for SEVA and even right up to the snow starting they somehow had 3-7 for the Peninsula.

CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ057>059-064>066-221130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Hershey, York, Pottsville, Lancaster, Lebanon, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ024-033-221130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/ Cambria-Somerset- Including the cities of Somerset and Johnstown 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Cambria and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall totals on the ridgetops will be locally higher due to the enhanced upslope snow.

Feeling good here in Loudoun. I think I am just enough east to get some decent snow, whether its from the IVT potential or LP being closer to the coast. West of Loudoun is the question mark imo.

To be honest, I was surprised that Blizzard Warnings were issued a little further inland towards southern Worcester County. BUFKIT profiles for ORH show 45-50 knot wind gusts from 2 am to 9 am Monday & 40 knot wind gusts from 10 am to 2 pm or so Monday. Definitely would fit criteria for Blizzard (35-plus mph frequent gusts & visibility 1/4 mile or less in snow/blowing snow for at least 3 consecutive hours).

Well then ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates.

Banding, one of my least favorite terms. I prefer deformation zones, etc...

Betting markets have 12.9" as the over/under for CPK, newly opened contract...might be worth taking the over for a little arbitrage on this one...

CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west

Yeah, not trying to spam the forum with maps. Just points of comparison - those seem to be recently updated in the last couple of hours. Some other sites are still showing maps from this morning...

Do you mean the bust a couple Fridays ago when they had less than an inch of snow and I got almost 4 inches in west Central Chesterfield 23120?

That's a concern for the real weenie rates in SNE. Will the peak RI well to the S initially preclude Bliz of '13 "everything falling out of the sky" rates!? Once deep occlusion takes place those wild rates come down.