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I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.

This is not your best work. D-

1.14" event total

The shortwave divebombing in from east central Canada/ through Minnesota at hour 84-96 needs to phase with the plains shortwave.GFS does this,Euro doesn't.And everything a tad more west.

no it is certainly not

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

3"-5" that hangs around is better than 8"-12" that's gone in 3 days.

Go play in a puddle for a few hours.

Wave spacing

Don’t want to Deb and I haven’t been able to look at closely at any 12z guidance, but I still think a good ULL passage is a simpler and cleaner way to a 1-3” maybe 2-4” type event. Multiple phasing shortwaves in a Nina with a kicker in the mix and no upstream blocking to slow things down seems like a recipe for last minute heartbreak. Throw in a mid precursor airmass. You know I’m rooting for the unicorn, but I’ll take a simple layup.

Closing off in the OV? Let's capture this bish and vertically stack it. Lfg.

Surprised the Euro and eps is this close. I thought this was gonna be a gfs fantasy storm.

GEPS not biting. Handles the energy north of New England completely differently. Liked the movement towards some more amped members on the EPS/GEFS from their previous runs. Have to see a few more cycles. Definitely need to thread the needle to see something substantial.

Both the EPS and GEFS pop a stronger west coast ridge, and it's sharper as well. That's a good sign.

Yea I don’t get worrying about any surface output at this point. At 500mb we’re very close to something memorable and large with both storms. I’d be worried if clown maps were pasting me this many days out.

It's cold enough, but the cold push may have been too much, idk. Sadly, it'll be gone in 6hrs like so many threats on the AI. Had it not given us more than the operational at 12z, I would have said I hate it.

Nothing like some good model runs to lighten and brighten the mood on this board. Don't worry we'll be back to our regularly scheduled programming (whining, arguing, etc...) as the models flip flop over the next 4+ days.

I actually like the potential showing on the Euro better than the GFS. Euro has a bomb just off shore for storm 2.

We were told in another subforum we shouldn't use the term 'kicker' anymore. The proper terminology they prefer us to use is "there needs to be a bit more wave spacing". The nerve of some folks

Play around with this

Time will tell. Maybe DT was right on his rant yesterday.

Or when ther is 6 inches of snow on the ground and traffic is snarled.

2.61” of rain. We’ve had dry conditions before this but I’m modestly worried it’ll be enough to loosen up tree roots before tomorrows wind.

Great storm today. At least we can still get moisture. Radar looks impressive still.

Water tables definitely getting filled here in Maryland!!!!