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Kraft/Epstein tiny weenie farewell here.

Not in the mid to later stages of the storm but n the beginning stages when temperatures are marginal elevation wont hurt.

Dumping snow since 9am .

Exactly

The pivotal positive snowfall change seems useful for this one at the moment

I wonder how often that snowfall gradient has actually taken place in the Merrimack Valley area...

Actually, EPS has been catching up with MJO verification in the last week or so. It did horribly when it was in phase 6, but much better once we crossed into 7.

I don’t see elevation really being a factor other than if/when the transition occurs to either rain or ZR. Latitude is gonna be the key here. At 4 days out , it’s really looking like 84 is gonna be the marker between warning level snows & nuisance event

GFS did tick south from 00z

We don't know exactly how this event will play out yet. But even if it ends up an interior event, non-elevated NNJ through the lower Hudson Valley haven't had a decent snow event in a while. So this wouldn't really be a repeat scenario in that sense.

I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE

I like the aggressiveness, 11.7 Schaumburg would mean a big win for Downers Grove, bring it. 11.7 48 hours ago would have been a big stretch but here we are with a decent chance of hitting that number.

Yea, you want latitude with a primary warming H925.....elevation doesn't do as much too mitigate that.

Naked snow angels here

The 12z is the 4th cycle in a row that the CMC has shifted south with the vortmax... it had been up in Ohio/Great Lakes more like the GFS. The two models show important differences at day 4 with the 6z ECM kind of a compromise.

Not seeing any frozen for the city and coast. Classic interior event, and even they may change to rain. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude.

Oh hey…this is where all my Great Lakes people are at? I’ve been over on WXSphere for the last few years but it’s mostly OV people! Looking forward to this one to start the season.

Nail biter here.

And even if the shortwave is weaker, like the 12z Canadian, it’s still not enough here because the whole thing is kind of weak sauce. Canadian would make Kevin to Ray happy

You're prob in a good spot...GFS only needs to be overamped by a very small margin for you to get a warning event.

Mentioned this yesterday and I haven't wavered on this forecast yet. I feel any wintry precip in the region will be confined northwest of the fall line. The key is the timing of the HP movement to the east and the the low attack. A few days ago, we had a little more stay in the HP to the north which would offset some of the warm advection from prevailing southeast flow and provide a deeper wedge to break through. Now the high is shifting east and in a classic spot for a positive u-vector wind anomaly to take shape earlier, eroding CAD prior to approach of the main precip field. Magnitude of cold is subjective, so it's plausible the wedge is deeper than advertised from the preceding pattern, or the low isn't as robust and doesn't have the stronger boundary layer WAA regime materialize making it easier for the cold to remain. The fact stands that the current forecast would yield little wintry precip for the lowlands and is shaping to be a classic elevation/longitudinal type pattern for the area. Further north and west, the better the chance. EC AIFS and AIFS-ENS are still in pretty good agreement on some low-end threat for snow/sleet prior to the setup yielding all rain for the area. Would need a massive shift in the HP to the north about 200-350 miles further west as @WEATHER53 alluded to in a recent post. Still super early in the season, so it's just nice to have something trackable at this point instead of watching temps in the 50s and 60s and swatting mosquitos into December.

The difference is crazy. It’s just entirely less dynamic too. I’d did tick colder, but still not enough here.

I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m saying it sort of has been leading the way with getting something up here. Maybe it’s a little amped, but it’s not a crazy idea to have something like that. That high was offshore and you have all the srly flow and warm advection ahead of it. Nothing really to stop it from being so tucked in unless the short wave comes in much weaker.

Given it’s relative consistency, I would say a compromise is an order, but with an edge towards the GFS