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It has dipped to 12.9 at the farm in Louisburg and the airport is sitting at 14! Think that’s the coldest reading for both this season. Sitting at 21.2 here at home. Might fall a little more at both locations

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WB 6Z GEFS is a hold, even slight tick south. Coastal low is main low, not amped solution with a primary going into WV.

Not the whopper the 00z was, but the 06z GFS is still a good hit for most, with warning criteria snows along and S of US 54:

Besides the storm this weekend, my god the extended cold!

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore).

A James winter for the ages.

Check this 6z gfs sounding over AL. Near -30c at the sfc and near 0c at h85.

GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z

Nice to wake up to this... and not nightmares of Torchy narrating Massengil commercials

Not even the NAM is on its side. lol.

Hawt panel on the gfs. Dendrite bomb hopefully for wherever the predominant snow band sets up.

A story as old as Time. .

6z GFS holds serve... Considering the high ratios this one should have, I think the Kuchera map is the right way to go.

Honestly my expectation too. It won’t shock me to see these 10+ inch runs shift back down south, but I like the majority of folks around the Berks/Lehigh area for 6-8in

Case in point. The 06z Uk just ticked the northern wave 50 miles further east (more separation).

Close to a mini nuke on the GFS next Thrusday and Friday

Low of 5° so far

Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending. 48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm. Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.

-3 in Western Berks, pretty impressive I must say. I’m not sure the N trend continues much more with that strong of a high pressure I’d almost expect to see the correction South a bit today, still I like where our Region sits.

Dab-

Afyer reading discussions from the pros in Morristown at the NWS, I'm going old school and just goi g to wait and see what happens. They even say they don't know. In the Hamilton County detailed forecast they are saying sleet, freezing rain, and heavy snow accumulations Saturday and Saturday night. They said models are changing so much they have no way of determining where the snow line will shift. They really don't know. They are keeping temps below 32° for the high Saturday and staying below freezing late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. We might still get it. Remember the old days! Just wait and see what happens. I honestly think we have wayyyy too many different models. They need to just go old school and actually read the maps and make manual adjustments based on climatology and micro-climates. A lot of the new mets are relying on a computer models to tell us what will happen instead of putting in the work to figure out small details. Time will tell. Sorry for the long post. Not a rant, just trying to see things from the eyes of the pros. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Diving into this morning's 0z data. It is even colder, now suggesting DFW could potentially stay below freezing through Wednesday or Thursday next week with potential another shot of Arctic air on Friday. QPF has increased across all modeling. Single digits are a lock and Monday morning could be 0 to 5.

Well hopefully my move will help some with this storm

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS