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I would disagree with the can kick idea with this situation. It was always mid-late January that was going to be good. Then suddenly early-January pops up and gets overhyped, and then it disappears. IMO it was never our time, especially with that forecast +EPO.

Looking at the EPS there's quite a spread in temps starting Sunday and if you squint perhaps a remote chance of light snow over the weekend?

Like Feb 1-3, 2021

Yeah I looked at the LR when he posted - upper air looked good, then I looked at surface and it was trash warm so, he was on to something.

Nothing on the horizon for weeks

I'm here to bring back some hope to the forum: Checked out WB and JB just drew a comparison to the latest CFS run and 1996. We're back in.

Yea. Just enjoy the ride and the circus.

Torch or not there's still no snow. It is what it is ,but there's just no SS action when it matters for us. Its literally been years now.

Nothing good on the 12z euro? I assume so since not a single post about it. That's usually the tell

Well we got a nice dopamine hit yesterday, lol Now we gotta see if this was just a little rushed or if it's the proverbial can-kick. Kinda feel like we oughta know by next week. If we get to next week and Day 8-10 looks like we gotta punt them too then there might be a problem (maybe). All we can do kow is wait. Like I said yesterday...now may be a good time to take a break

Brutal, but I've seen more infuriating snowfall gradients

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 141 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506>508-VAZ053>055-527- 310300- District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 141 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON METRO AREAS AS WELL AS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. A period of light snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Wednesday morning across the Baltimore / Washington metro areas as well as northeast and southern Maryland, with a light coating of snow accumulation possible on area roads. If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. $$ DHOF

Today’s runs suggests that the pope is a seer. Maybe we can put him up to be canonized as a demon saint

Rgem was advisory here. Let's ramp it up at 18z

Reminder that it was supposed to torch this week.

as a rank amateur who understands little about weather forecasting beyond D2, it's the differentiating opinions, and the "arguments" around them, that I find most informative.

While I’m certainly on board with January being another colder than normal month in the east, due to the front-loaded Niña we are in, which would fit the progression, that’s where I think it stops. At least that’s my thought right now. I’m not sure what BAMWX thinks about February and March? I know there’s some hype on twitter today about the new CFS being very cold in the east for the next 3 months; Jan, Feb and Mar….I just don’t see that happening. We haven’t seen a La Niña accomplish that (all 5 months in a row; Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) being below normal cold in over 30 years (1995-96). That was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO all winter long. As I said before, the only way I could possibly see that happening would be with a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup like 2018 had. I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks

I mean, we haven't had a southern moisture storm in years now. It's sort of dropped off our radar since it's the middle of winter but the drought marches onward. I'm not sure why I'd expect us to magically start getting noreasters all of a sudden without a seismic pattern shift. Yeah there's always the fluke chance (per the GFS), but until the base state changes I think they're just fantasy storms.

Found this in the TN forum, looks like the SER is getting suppressed to the Deep South.

Doesn't the cool pool help enforce a negative PNA?

Todays the 25th anniversary of the December 30th, 2000 Snowstorm. I got a full radar animation up here and sfc loop. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-30-31-2000

My non expert opinion on the models is that it is related to climate change. They are struggling to be accurate because things are constantly changing and creating more variables than in the past.

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic

I'm not in response there.. I was asking you, a question. His opinions can be where ever he wants. the point is, if you do no like him or his opinions, you have the power to do something about it - don't read them. In fact, if it bothers you that much, ignore him altogether. That's it.

Al Gore invented lying too? And I thought his internet invention was impressive ....