All Activity

Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle

But then some people wouldn't have anything to post! Haha.

Yes, I am a weenie!!!

Now 29/28 at 6am. Feels kinda chilly out there. That's KEEN, Almost 200 feet higher. We are often a few degrees colder here in Brattleboro, which is about 300 ft. ASL at the Connecticut River, when we have thermal inversion. BTW, finally getting a new outdoor thermometer at my new apartment next month...

Eye continuing to clear on IR, suggesting intensification is continuing.

What’s great is they’re only 10min apart from each other.

She’s a CAT 4 this AM.

Phrasing…

Has anyone heard from @RUNNAWAYICEBERG? He seems to be MIA

She's gonna be a beaut. I really can't believe we're watching the worst case scenario for Jamaica play out before our eyes. Especially a country that has avoided very many destructive hurricanes in the past but that luck as finally run out sadly. Like even if Melissa was moving normally this would still be one for the history books but given the slow speed, angle of approach and absolute monster strength it's going to be something that they may never see again for hundreds of years. I really do not think many know what's truly coming.

She has a eye now and bombing out

Incredibly sobering look for those in Jamaica.

Melissa's eye is clearing out fast now.

I think Melissa is well on her way to becoming a "buzzsaw".

Mesovorticies rotating around the eyewall. it shouldn't be long until we start seeing pressure dropping like a rock.

120 at 2 am update.

Latest vortex message states the eyewall is square. This has only been seen in the strongest upper-echelon hurricanes.

Here's some heat content and isotherm depth maps as well. Melissa's core, despite being a slow-mover, has plenty of energy to tap prior to land interaction. Credit to RSMAS at Miami for maintaining these to the public.

This will be a great test to see how much cooling of the surface there is by 10/29. Here was the SST map as of 10/24: note the large area of 30-31C surrounding Jamaica, which is the warmest in the Atlantic basin:

Melissa going nuclear

Fourteen hours between those two images is absolutely absurd. We kept harping that all forecast indicators were showing substantial decrease in wind shear to a near to pristine favorable upper environment. The system is now positioned right under an amplifying ULAC. Powder keg stuff. I think we'll see a Category 5 today.

Officially 959 mb from the dropsonde.

This is exceptionally rapid organization. 15z on 10/25 04z now, on 10/26

I mean, one has to imagine based on what we are seeing on latest imagery, pressure will be even lower on next pass.

Final recon pass until morning found 114 kts flight level and 959 mb extrap. This thing is barely moving.