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There’s a standing wave there (near Maritime Continent). Not hard to figured out why either with +30C SSTs there. Thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere will always put the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest waters…..

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS 2 week through 12/9: was then curling back away from 8 and we were wondering whether it would ever make phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS extended, which adds 12/10-12/27: it turned out that it made phase 8 for an 8 day period (12/13-20), which would be longest phase 8 since Feb of 2019’s 9 day long ph 8 and the longest Dec ph 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 day long ph 8:

Only model that far south so it’s an outlier.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I’m showing the ens. I keep hearing random chatter that they’ve got a broken output but nobody has offered any proof, so I’ll choose to ignore it. Looks plausible to me…

The one posted is the Ai ensemble mean .

That's odd. Operational shows this on Pivotal.

Happy Thanksgiving y'all! Started out at 21 this morning in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Live or die with our AI overlords.

Ok so it’s not a true coastal on that depiction then? Kind of a hybrid?

Same to you @strongwxnc! Everyone enjoy the turkey and the first taste of winter.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Get those snow blowers going, hoping to get in some early December

Peeking at the latest gfs… H7 doesn’t close off or really even back…SW flow and plenty of WAA up there until the trof axis passes. H85 does. Kinda has that front ender look initially with closed off low levels. If you look at H85 it looks like the primary wants to cut west and then it jumps quickly eastward to our south.

This would be nice

KFIT reached 63. I got into the upper 50s

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Wishing all a happy and safe Thanksgiving!

Just went under the freezing mark this morning at 31.8 degrees, still breezy, WNW at 10 gusting to 21 now with partly cloudy skies.

We just don’t know. Could be lower.

Happy turkey day, y’all. Be safe and enjoy time with friends and family

The high end of the range is way overdone. 11” here by Sunday morning is plausible if things go well. For the storm itself, things have been looking good for 6-10” for a while. NAM is juiced up but that’s typical at this point.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families everyone.

For MBY it's 2016. And it isnt close. I will never live to see 40 inches from a single storm again.

Exactly where we want it now That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.