All Activity

BAM retracts the call that "winter won't be over any time soon" and discusses how the wall to wall favorable pattern this month has really broken down

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

Might be a few ticks warmer tomorrow. Warmest day of the week.

PRISM has the winter to date around +2.16F. But I know from Ben Noll that this was the 5th warmest since 1981 on PRISM, so it must have 2015-2016 a little cooler than NOAA. We'll have to wait another week or so for the official numbers.

I have to give @NorthHillsWx credit for jumping into this one after the dry slot event. I wish i had that approach.

CMC ensembles increased as well.

I’d put the number around 50%, in terms of ENS showing an actual SSWE.

I think that’s March.

Looks like January came in around +0.82F on PRISM's dataset. That will snap our streak of 4 consecutive Top 10 warm months for the CONUS - last 2 being Top 5.

35 here as well. Melt melt melt

most definitely is.

And if we hadn’t had the colder period that month would have been warmer than average, works both ways hombre

Yea nice combo of black, grey and yellow!

dusty and brown hope we're all ready to smell wildfire all summer

What month is this future's contract for? March or April?

Table of forecasts for February 2026 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA PositiveEPO Enjoyer ______ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+2.4 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 BKViking __________________-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.5 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 so_whats_happening ______-2.2 _ -2.3 _ -2.5 __ -1.0 _ -0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________-2.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.8 __ -2.7 _ -0.5 _ +0.3 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 wxallannj __________________-3.0 _ -2.8 _ -2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +0.4 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 dmillz25 ___________________-3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ____ Consensus __________ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -1.0 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 DonSutherland1 ___________-3.0 _ -3.3 _ -3.3 __ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ +3.4 _ +3.6 wxdude64 ________________ -3.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ +1.7 _ +2.4 _ +2.1 Tom _______________________-4.2 _ -4.5 _ -4.6 __ -2.6 _ -2.8 _ -0.6 __ +3.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.7 RJay _______________________-5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -2.5 _ -2.2 _ +3.0 __ +3.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 Roger Smith _______________-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 __ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 RodneyS __________________-8.5 _ -9.0 _ -8.9 __ -3.7 _ -2.5 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.2 _____________________________________ Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ -4.2 _ -3.3 _ -1.9 __ -3.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.7 _ +4.3 _ +0.6 ============================== will add color codes later, will have to consider whether or not warmest should be dual-format depending on next month entries. (having a one and done as warmest should be along with warmest regular forecaster for extreme forecast designations but if the new entrant makes more forecasts then they would have exclusive access for designation) (coldest forecasts are mostly among last two entries shown, except for western region where BKV or SL have them) All of our western forecasts are above normal. All but a few eastern and ORD-ATL are below. IAH is more variable. <<< table will be adjusted if further entries are received >>>

36 at home. Streak over, winter over, life over

Yup. Was just going to say that today is the first day in more than a week that I see signs of some melting in Manhattan. But we desperately need a snowpack whitener. Snow banks getting very nasty.

36 here. Currently full nudity...

Up to 23F and it feels like t-shirt weather with no wind and sunshine.

CPK is at 34

31 here.