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  2. There is nothing false in intimating that the risk for wintry event, next week, "shit the bed" in the models. That's essentially true. It may be fair to say that an event could return in modeling? However, there are other indicators suggesting that those odds are pretty long. It's just that there are those that don't like the circumstance at hand, much less when someone iron pans the reality. They read it, ... they react. Usually by picking apart specific word choice to tailor a some way to make it wrong. Heh. okay
  3. Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (2021) NYC: 73 (1977) LGA: 70 (1977) JFK: 68 (2016) Lows: EWR: 14 (1960) NYC: 14 (1960) LGA: 15 (1960) JFK: 15 (1960) Historical: 1888: The Great Blizzard of 1888 paralyzed the east coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine on March 11 through the 14th. The blizzard dumped as much as 55 inches of snow in some areas, and snowdrifts of 30 to 40 feet were reported. An estimated 400 people died from this blizzard. Click HERE for more information from History.com. 1888: Heavy rain that began early in the day in Washingon, DC & changed to snow about 3 P.M. by midnight wind and heavy snow took down electric wire and blacked out the city. By the following morning snow depths varied from a few inches in the city to over ten inches to the north and NW. Winds to 34 to 48 mph and a minimum temperature of 18°F and a maximum of 30 °F. (P. 49 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) Rain began falling during the afternoon in New York City. By evening, it turned to freezing rain, coating the city in ice. Shortly after midnight on the 12th, it changed over to snow and the Blizzard of '88 began. Three feet of snow fell on southeast New York by the evening of the 13th with 50mph winds creating drifts to the second story of buildings in New York City. 21 inches accumulated in the city. Albany, NY received 47 inches of snow and Saratoga, NY 58 inches. At sea, the storm was referred to as the Great White Hurricane. 400 people died from the storm and the ensuing cold. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1911 - Tamarack, CA, reported 451 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) 1917: At 3:02 pm on Sunday, March 11, 1917, many New Castle lives were changed forever. In just a few terrifying minutes, 22 people were killed, hundreds were injured, 500 homes were damaged or destroyed, and many of the city's triumphant greenhouses were leveled in what would be part of $1 million suffered in property damage. 1935: Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1948 - Record cold followed in the wake of a Kansas blizzard. Lows of -25 degrees at Oberlin, Healy and Quinter established a state record for the month of March. Lows of -15 at Dodge City, -11 at Concordia, and -3 at Wichita were also March records. (The Weather Channel) 1962 - One of the most paralyzing snowstorms in decades produced record March snowfalls in Iowa. Four feet of snow covered the ground at Inwood following the storm. (David Ludlum) 1972: Chicago, Illinois 10th & 11th: Chicago's temperature rises from 15°F on the 10th to 73°F on the 11th. The 58 F deg rise ties the biggest day-to-day rise on record. The city also experienced a similar jump in temperature in February 1887. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., and a storm over the Gulf of Mexico spread rain and sleet and snow into the Appalachian Region. Sleet was reported in southern Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Chadron NE was buried under 33 inches of snow, up to 25 inches of snow was reported in eastern Wyoming, and totals in the Black Hills of South Dakota ranged up to 69 inches at Lead. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Mullen NE. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported around Lusk WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Twenty-one cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 95 degrees at Lubbock TX equalled their record for March. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Forty-four cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 71 degrees at Dickinson ND and Williston ND, and 84 degrees at Lynchburg VA, Charleston WV and Huntington WV. Augusta GA and Columbia SC tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation with record highs of 88 degrees. A vigorous cold front produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains of Utah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A major winter storm with a central pressure of 978 millibars or 28.88 inches of mercury struck the northeastern U.S. Heavy snow occurred over western Pennsylvania and New York with Bradford, PA recording 23 inches, Rochester, NY 21.9 inches, and Buffalo, NY with 15 inches. On the warm side of the storm in Vermont, heavy rains combined with snowmelt and ice breakup caused massive ice jams on the Winooski River in Montpelier, resulting in severe flooding. The downtown section was under five feet of water with millions of dollars of damage resulting. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006 - Phoenix's record run for dry days finally ends at 143 days. The last measured rain fell on October 18, 2005. Not only did the rain break the dry spell, the 1.40 inches that fell was a record amount for the date.
  4. Gorgeous here…let’s get another 70’s day, and then snow tomorrow afternoon.
  5. LOL GFS is 3-6" of snow on the grass for DC..
  6. Hopefully a fast flow will help move things along and negate some back door potential that lingers for days?
  7. He might hit 70.. looks like 80s for NJ
  8. The torch returns on GFS by the 22nd/23rd.
  9. 58 / 46 should get to 70 for a 4th straight day as the main front comes through later this evening and overnight / Thu. Showers into PA with main focus later. Rain now up to 0.15 to 0.20 for the area from what was looking drier earlier this week - had a feeling the front may be a bit more amped. Cooler back near normal with a brief warmup Mon ahead of the trough moving into the EC Mar 17 - Mar 21 or so. Much chillier - below avg with St Pattys day likely not getting out of the 30s and stuck that way Wed 18th as well. Moderation to and above avg overall towards the 21st but dont think any warmth locks in its more back and forth favoring warm.
  10. lol zero chance we see anything more than cold rain inside the beltway.
  11. This. While I’m good with it being over. There are possibilities as you point out. Will Scott be humbled again this winter…
  12. It’s great that we got a one month relaxation of the Northern Stream from late January into late February. But now it’s back as strong as ever. This is the main reason that that our significant snowfall chances have diminished after February.
  13. I saw that.. .interesting high based towers
  14. Not in this conversation but ... I sense that depending on March as a wintry month as lessening support in reality -
  15. This is the graph of my home weather station yesterday. You can see the lake breeze and then the recovery.
  16. Totally disagree. PV is near. Still active. Time will tell. One SW timed right
  17. Lol…And the longer range can’t shit the bed yet again…cuz that never happens lol. Really? You’re smarter than that.
  18. Can tell there is elevated instability noted by the cumulus.
  19. Next week was the real shot and that shit the bed. I know the 0ZGFS was trying to hint at something a little later, but I don’t see any model agreement showing that.
  20. actually initializing elevated convection over the top of this newly arrived dome too - y'all may even get wet in mid NH
  21. I can look ahead and see the pattern and know it. I’m not talking about a random fluke either. I’m not counting on that. The overall pattern looks done. And I’m not counting a sloppy inch or two that’s gone an hour later either.
  22. Cloudy with light rain here at work in Charleston wv seems pretty cappy
  23. Another thing to share that I thought was interesting is just as it passed to the south, every single window in the house fogged up I figured you guys would know why. But said to my wife “it’s got to be right there, we just can’t see it with the hail and wind”
  24. NAM fail today. Already 50 here. Another nice one on tap. Let's get rid of more snow piles
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