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Hey troll, I didn’t say these were anywhere near historic. The record lows for 12/15 at RDU/ATL are way at 8/11. But they are ~18 BN.

bah humbug! there's skiing to do

Check out the current feed on the traffic cams along 78 west of Allentown. It’s precipitating only it’s not rain.

You’re starting to sound alot like TBlizz…chin up bro…it’s only 12/10.

that would be historic

10+ day maps should be weighed lightly, in either warm or cold directions, in my opinion.

This thing is still 3.5 days out …you don’t think there’s enough time to trend this a 100 miles? Geez Paul, I think we all know that’s very doable at this juncture for sure. But maybe you’ll be right? Gonna be a fun couple days seeing how this turns out.

If Pensacola and New Orleans can have a MECS/Blizzard we are quite a ways away from no snow around here...

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening. I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet. Any intelligence to the contrary?

I bet it won't play out like that...not this year. 70s I would believe however.

Nah dude. Its so warm now it will never snow again. Walking around in shorts and flip flops all the time drinking pina coladas. Sun angle is a constant threat too. It never gets cold enough to snow. Those days are behind us. You know, background state. oh wait…

As usual, got some decent Year's snow wise but some not so good as well. One great one (2011) One terrible (1990) .

Looks like a burst of rain and snow coming... probably elevationally dependent. Bright banding evident on radar.

A tradition unlike any other!

Latest Natty Blend. At this range its a great tool to use for guidance.

I like the optimism.. need to will it to happen

This has nothing to do with the SAI. The most recent 30 year data reflecting the warmer climate leaves no doubt as to the relationship. Back in the colder climate era the relationship was much weaker than it has become. Part of this is due to weather patterns becoming more repetitive in a warmer climate probably owing to local tropical SSTs resulting in non-linear convective temperature forcing thresholds being crossed. I understand that the most extreme warming has only occurred over the last 15 to 30 years. So we have a new emergent climate state that is different from the previous colder era. We don’t have the luxury anymore of a relatively stable global temperature regime as was the case from 1880 through 1982. So you had a much longer period where there was only a small increase in temperatures. It gave us a 100 years of correlations to work out and use. I understand that you may have some hesitancy in using the newer correlations derived over the shorter period. But I have been using numerous relationships from this new and warmer period that have been serving me well. But it’s not a 100 year data set to draw from like we had back in the older and colder climate era.

Scrolling down my past posts and found these gems:

Don't hate this look and its a bump up from 6z

And for what it’s worth, I think this upcoming “torch” is more of a gently above average type of deal for the upper south than 70s and golf weather. It looks like we’re going to be flooded with Pacific air, which isn’t exactly a torch signal - usually just a signal for a lot of 50s and low 60s sprinkled in. Torch to me is “tune up the lawnmower” weather cause it might start growing again.

Pretty similar. Nice to see at this point.

Looks like thread time... Edit: just saw the new thread...

I think point 1 is what I was trying to illustrate though. Maybe not on here, but I saw dozens of talking heads ignoring other parameters surrounding winter weather potential in the south as if the MJO is the only driver. I just don’t believe that it is. It has to be taken with a grain of salt and many big storms have occurred in less than ideal phases. So we actually agree on more than you think, I should’ve just added more context. It matters but it’s one drop in the very large bucket of things we need to get right to deliver an impactful winter weather event.

We seem to get screwed in most scenarios out our way