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I'd be shocked if we don't get at leat 2 or 3 colder windows to snow before spring. Problem is without stable blocking any storm threat is even more highly dependant on interactions with other waves leading to more uncertainty than usual past day 4. All this to say I wouldn't get interested in any threat until its consistently shown 96-120 hours. I guess that holds true for a lot of setups, but moreso here in my opinion.

Euro really can’t be viewed anymore

Def more confluence in SE QB/NN I’d normally expect the euro to win on something like this, but it was all over the place with that smaller ULL up there this past weekend.

I was just contemplating this. We have not had one coastal work out. We have had a favorably cold tenor, however, we have also had a coastal failure tenor.

Historical Storms of note

Records: Highs: EWR: 74 (1954) NYC: 71 (1954) LGA: 69 (2023) JFK: 64 (2023) Lows: EWR: 0 (1943) NYC: 1 (1888) LGA: 2 (1943) JFK: 5 (2015) Historical: 1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind. 1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 1926: Binham Canyon, Utah: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house. Thirty-six are killed and 13 injured. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1930: Eureka CA reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel) 1936: The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)Both North and South Dakota would go on to set all-time heat records in the summer of 1936. 121° in Steel, North Dakota on July 6th. Gannvalley, South Dakota had 120 °F on July 5, 1936. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA) 1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F. 1958: The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern United States. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington DC, and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The Poconos had 36 inches and the Catskills got 30 inches. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum) 1962: Asheville, NC recorded a temperature of -23° for the coldest reading ever in North Carolina outside of the mountains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: The weather was changeable in NW Pennsylvania. Along a 1-mile stretch of I-80 in Venango County, 9 accidents occurred due to icy roads. In Sharon, an unusual wake-up call for a man when he was “knocked” from his bed when lightning hit his house. A fire also resulted. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1974: Record snowfall occurred at Lakelse Lake, British Columbia Canada as 46.5 inches fell over 24 hours. This record was broke 2/11/1999. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989: A surge of arctic air on February 16-17th produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth, Minnesota, 30.97 inches at Chicago, Illinois, and 30.94 inches at South Bend, Indiana. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and 30.98 inches at Rockford, Illinois, tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens, Georgia, 87 degrees at Charleston, South Carolina, 85 degrees at Macon, Georgia, and 86 degrees at Savannah, Georgia, were records for February. 1990 The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two-day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: Annandale - Barcroft Hills Weather Center had a spring like thunderstorm with 1.73 inches of rain. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) 2003: The 5th largest snowstorm at Annandale-Barcroft Hills Weather Center in the last 23 years with a total of 15.8 inches and was the most snow since January- 6-8 -1996 when 18.1 inches was recorded. This MAJOR storm had a 2/15/2003 snow total of 1.3 inches, 2/16/2003 snow total of 13.0 inches, 2/17/2003 snow total of 1.5 inches. Yet another 7.7 inches of snow would fall before the month was over. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) Feb. 14th-18th: A complex storm system produced copious amounts of snow and sleet across the region. Nicknamed the President’s Weekend Snowstorm of 2003, it ranked in the top 5 of all-time regional snowstorms. The storm took a heavy toll on residents, structures, transportation systems, emergency responders, businesses, livestock, and travelers. Roads were covered by deep snow and sleet and were nearly impassible. Emergency personnel and those needing emergency transport had to be taken to their destinations in 4 wheel drives or military vehicles (see article “Loudoun and Fauquier Counties’ Finest Assist the National Weather Service during Snowstorm”). Heavy accumulations weighed down on buildings and several structural collapses occurred. Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 4th Worst Snowstorm(Ref. Wilson More Information on This Snow Storm) 2014: Chicago February 17, 2014 at 4:15 PM Oak Park had heavy snow today and a rumble of thunder too. I know thunder was reported in the area. Oak Park had 5-6 inches and it is still snowing lightly. Midway Airport has had 72.2 inches for the season as this afternoon. O’Hare is the official station for Chicago is now 5th all time! (Ref.WGN-tv By Meteorologist Tom Skilling)

It's pretty surprising how a couple weeks ago this month was looking to be cold, and now we're in full blown torch mode. February sure has been one of extremes in recent years. Either it's our snowiest month, or we cook. The system on Thursday has my attention. If this trends well it may be my first chase of the year.

That's not the award I wanted this morning...lol

I'd be wary of the gradient setting up farther north versus south on this. There should be a pretty solid narrow, elongated axis of heavy snow though. Even some hints at a bit of a MAUL on some soundings

Up to 29.8" for season.

.55" rain last 24 hrs. Very close to the 7 model blend from last Thursday.

Here is a clown map... over 200" sounding on near the Michigan bluff area. Looks like CA gets their water supply after all.

Cirrus here

Have we had a coastal like that at any point this season, even out to sea? Feel like save the the mega SWFE, we’ve trended towards weaker and less phasing all winter. Im deeply deeply skeptical of these runs for next week. Ensembles aren’t overly enthused

Ended up with .50" yesterday. Hopefully that washed the roads off decently. Low was 47.

Monday a.m. low 34. 0.50” rain on Sunday.

Nam is south

DT’s weekend rule from back in the olden days.

Looks like between 2-4 inches of the snow, ice pack left on the ground (at my place) to melt this week. The snow piles...thats a different story.

33 / 29 cloudy. Hope to see some clearing later today as it looks to be sun-less much of the week. Overall near / above avg and wetter week ahead. Next weekend and the period into the 23/24th looks interesting, before then, warmer and wetter with showers and light rain Wed - Fri. 2/16 - 2/21 : Warmer - above avg overall / wetter (2/18 - 2/20) 2/22 - 2/24 : Period to watch for next system 2/25 - beyond : Overall near / below avg

Screw that rain .. I was a snowstorm, if it's not gonna snow then be clear and sunny!

I just completed my study of La Niña March temperatures by MJO phase at Baltimore (as a geographically centered rep. of the E coast). Before I show Mar, here’s a review of what I found for Feb Niña by phase: 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo) 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest) 3: -1.5 (coldest) 4: +3.3 5: +3.1 6: +5.5 (warmest) 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo) 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +2.5 Range: 7.0 ————— Now, here’s the just completed March Niña by phase: 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7 Range: 4.3 ——————— So, how does March compare to Feb? -phase 6 warmest on avg for both -phase 7 coldest on avg for Mar vs phase 3 for Feb -avg anomaly for Mar (+0.7) not as warm as that for Feb (+2.5), which is intuitive for La Nina -Range of variation of averages by phase in Mar (4.3) not nearly as large as that of Feb (7.0), which is somewhat intuitive since temperature volatility tends to drop as we head into met. spring from the most volatile season, winter. This also may indicate that MJO, itself, as a factor may not have quite as much of an influence in March as it does in winter -It’s important to always keep in mind that these are just averages of a wide range for each individual case from MB to MA temp. anomalies. Thus, whereas averages are informative, they don’t tell us how any one case will actually turn out.

yup flip flop continues

Please no more 20 to 50mph winds.

Yep thats what i had for englishtown .