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Floyd wasn’t a huge deal imby, but it’s my earliest tropical impact memory. I remember the wind blowing hard when we were outside during recess and power going out at school—the first and only time that happened to me. I remember being glued to TWC as it came up the coast and overhead. The moon was out as the decaying center passed. Those were good days.

Great stuff in here today.

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff not the big dogs.

Well, I was referring to "favor" within a forecasting context....

Well, latter December is more palatable....but what I specifically meant is the latter November/early December type of deal we saw this past season....that is exceedingly rare. Once nearing the new year it's much more common. For instance, I count five prior to the ides of December between 1958 and 2012 in this table.

Crescent moon has been on point, too.

Hope you didn't slip. Have they salted yet? Stupid hubbardston DPW.

I wish they'd get rid of that damned corn. That's where that trash high fructose corn syrup comes from.

Look at those records from 1991 that was a truly endless summer wall to wall heat from April through September still setting records at this late date! Two years later 1993 had an even hotter summer for 90 95 and 100 degree days even a major volcanic eruption couldn't stop it!!

Tomorrow through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. A few locations could reach or exceed 80° on one or more days. Cooler air will return for the weekend. A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -36.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.191 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yep, severe cold snaps and huge snowstorms is a common hallmark of Nino falls for the middle of the country, here included.

This has been a very boring 6 months or so around here.

Yeah. I was taking the trash to the curb and was admiring the sky. Stupid trees prevent good pics here though. humid

Great sunset this evening…

18z gfs and gfs ai both upgraded to light rain

And guess which one will be right in the end?

Per Eric Webb’s table, 1925-6 trimonthlies peaked at +1.3.

Ah, so the new UKMET. I will be sure to mostly ignore it.

it's done. 5 months of autumn incoming