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Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.

On the bright side, it’s Tuesday evening and we’re talking about Sunday, so still some time to go in the right direction.

What are we looking at this weekend for two locations? Blowing rock Beeche mountain? What is the best day for the two? Saturday and Sunday.

18z GFS trending to back the flow for Saturday night too:

Really like the trends on icon and gfs. Always felt the second storm had the better chance

I remember a similar map someone posted in Early December. December ended up just fine, through most of the forum.

Wilmington now on notice!

18z GFS was a step in the right direction, more digging and separation, looked really close to being a lot more for Sunday. Maybe ens will start to pick up.

Then you don’t like winter weather .Come back in May

I was about to contradict you, but nope, you're right. This is the stats for every January 13th in the last 30 years at DCA. 60% of all Jan 13th's (since 1996) have been at or above 50.

WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.

Seeing a trend in the last 3-4 gfs runs. Might steal a little something there?

18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs.

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band. Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county: I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating.

Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe

Yeah, too far east. Just some interesting changes

Well vs 12, moisture on the coast now wehre there was none. But it's too far east

Tomorrow evening around 7pm looks to be the heaviest snow 3-4 per GFS

Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.

Oh you know it. A week of 40's and rain coming up.

Diffrent look upstairs on the GFS so far. Prob won't amount to much tho

Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.

AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe

Re: Weds…18z GFS w a lee side low again on this run. Slight uptick in intensity for E TN folks and Plateau.