All Activity

Fox Weather Channel going for 5-8 in NYC

Yeah and I think this is how Jan 2015 became very prolific....we were able to jack up the CCB by wrapping up instability into it. We didn't get a true WCB in that.

he's 6-12 DC to BOS locally 18

He is saying 1-3 in NYC but can see it being bumped up to 3-6.

Why is it foolish ? Every model is trending west.

In saying this though….it does increase the floor if the coastal were to head further east.

To be fair, I’m still expecting 1-2” IMBY. I like the trends but so much fail potential. That said, to assume the euro isn’t going to go west more or show more improvement at h5 after the move it just made may not be wise.

"kicker" says no way

We always get screwed when blocking gets stronger along the Aleutian into the Bearing Sea.Severe with the Jet goes up into the OV. Models did a fairly good job the moisture influx sorta speaking,we didnt have nothing much of any kicker but instability seemingly was still there than more advertised.Guess we say NEXT

With the ICON, Ukie and Euro all on board now, can there be any doubt? They all were kicking and screaming to get here. Still not game time, but looks like the GFS schooled them all this time.

True... but, this is going to have an elevate hook back MAUL. We might not need that direct isentropic burst just because the beast is so exceptionally far formed. So... with a CCB running underneath it can get dicey for some zones. But yeah... in an ideal sense... probably lightning and thunder in the witches crouch (the occlusion wedge) where said MAUL is elevating over the CCB flow ... It should bends back and parallel for a spell. Maybe makes up for having the isentropic 10" gift before the wind type of storm.

The snow was very impressive in that first thump as I drove across the border into NY on I90. Big cats paws in any bit of elevation.

Need to see that a few runs in a row.

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh

the surface deception will increase at an exponential rate as the h5 gets better. that's why the last 3-4 Euro runs were quite similar at the surface, but a similar shift in h5 improved it by a decent margin! if we get another one of those I bet it'll be a lot better.

Think the IVT here is "inverted trough". To be fair to you though, with all the EROs we write and referring to the IVT in that way so much, I totally get why you took it that way haha. I share similar thoughts. With the lack of a really cold air-mass, areas along I-95 will rely heavily on rates for anything during the day. Unless you have elevations from like the Catoctins, Bull Run Mountains, Parrs Ridge/far northeast MD, or you are directly beneath the CCB, this is going to be treated like a typical late season storm. 1.) how much snow is falling near/after sunset? 2.) Are you living at a higher elevation? 3.) Is guidance showing you beneath the CCB? If you answer all 3 as yes, you are in good shape at the moment. 2 of the 3 at least gives you decent odds of some accumulating snow. 1 of the 3, probably need some help somewhere along the way meteorologically via track or banding. 0 of the 3 speaks for itself.

I can tell this surprises you. I’m slightly intrigued by this but very cautious. That old saying “this can only come so far north” is in play.

Light sleet...a few flakes 1.5 inches in under an hour Didn't expect more than some pellets and a few flakes before just some rain. Best rates and snow growth of the season or close to it.

kids deserve at least one snow day off without remote learning this may be the last chance they get monday until next winter..

Dave Curran? He's been a sole "keeper" with them. Others from years ago, including Jim Gregorio and Michelle Powers are long gone. An annoying thing about News 12 weather -- they broadcast old weather spots without indicating so, for years now. It's really irresponsible. You'll see what you think is current radar, for example, and realize, "that's from hours ago."

well, fuck me

true - what is Bastardi saying ?

12z GFS says hold up, wait a minute.

yeah we're in for it. don't need to see much more than that