All Activity

Yeah there's a little more ridging building over the west coast too, but slightly lower heights ahead may offset.

I got it from this review https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/126785/aav7274_CombinedPDF_v1.pdf?sequenc

I think we'll be fine up here. It has a warn-nose bias so of course it'll be the first to detect such issues. However, it tends to be overzealous, especially when there's blocking. Take the late January storm for instance amoung other events.

In a zonal flow, yes. I miss the days when we’d get an easy west to east system that redeveloped over the TN Valley.

This might be premature... but I like the backside energy on the H5 42

Jb rule

I come back to the board after a 6 hour shift at the brewery where everyone is saying the storm is dead, only to find an 8 page thread. This place is a Zoloft commercial.

Is there anything to the LA rain rule? Forecast is for heavy rain there Th. Usually that means a big east coast storm is coming?

March and then November historically. Early December has as well .

Hope you're right!

We are a cursed bunch. This time last year the script was flipped, and the Euro was the snowy solution right before its brutal cave. Maybe psu's simulation idea is correct.

I wouldn’t go that far lol, but it has improved. I can recall numerous winter storm watches and warnings growing up that ended up being a bust for a variety of reasons (downsloping, temps, etc.). Models didn’t seem to handle the impacts of terrain very well.

I think the storm is a lock and the Euro will fold.

Wish we could get better ratios with this one to give us some wiggle room in case qpf gets cut, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Poor will. This is like some old school back alley jumping after school.

It also has you raining Friday night so maybe toss? Need to see what all the 0z models do with that ridge.

While we wait for the garbage GFS to run, in all seriousness, would anyone think a big storm is really coming until the EURO is on board?

The other team is on a heater.

I can't stay up to watch another let down. I thought this one had some pretty strong legs TBH.

RDPS vs NAM

I'll go until Saturday 0z.

Next up the bat to strike out his Mark Bellhorn, I mean the GFS.

Doesn't the CMC usually follow the RDPS? I do agree with you that until the EURO shows something who cares about the other models.

Icon is Igone