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Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

Maybe 6? It’s really better for severe. Winter definitely isn’t its place, imo.

Good win at least!

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though!

Rain , rain & more rain coming & maybe a snow shower or two lol

no JMA?

It's kind of interesting how some of the models show the snow hole there and some don't. RDPS and NAM don't have it, but the NAM 3k does and the HRW literally has snow on all sides of Lee County but stops right around the county lines lol. Are certain models being fed the bad data while others don't have the resolution to pick up on it?

There’s always a northern band! Preparing to get hosed in DC, but that’s fine, I guess. Likely not missing much

Max 20, Min 9.

You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges.

Snowing lightly hate with a nice band. Heavy returns headed my way too it seems.

Ok fair enough-Need a follow up tho to see if it verified. I've been looking at HRRR, RAP, SREF and others like it for as long as we could see weather models on the internet. Consistently a letdown and consistently incorrect no matter how many hours away it's crazy.

Meh, IMO the rap is best at extremely short term soundings

If we can squeeze out 2", Saturday morning could be pretty wild on the roads with the plunging temps and howling winds.

Daggone the RAP-that's some quality reachin right there -legendary.

DC 04z RAP sounding off the 02z run. Could get messy.

It’s mixing in between rain and flakes. If this is going to freeze tonight it’s gonna be a mess.

Filling in west if Warrenton. Warrenton is often a bench mark for what passes over it and DC beltway region

So, after all that it indeed, was weak ass.

What goods there are, are down in your 'hood. My WWA was canceled although I have what I would describe as a heavy dusting (less than 1/2") with very light snow continuing. I'd love it if you got a couple inches!

Funny, 2000-2001 actually had very hostile forcing...it's in the Modoki composite, but it's not a huge deal since it was weak and had the huge east QBO/Solar max attributed blocky polar domain.

Max 20f ... Min 5f ... Snow : 0.4