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Yea but I only got 20” places just northwest of me got over a foot more! We just can’t win, sigh

Speaking of Mammoth... the hurricane hunters flight planned mentioned........

Is this 2016 vibes or 2010? 2016 was more recent, but I think we knew it would be over 24” by this point. I really hate seeing the 2 feet range in Richmond.

Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either.

GFS Total QPF was only a trace at 12z

If we just get normal north shift even 10s of miles each day it’s just insanity. I like our position on that run.

I do agree, I feel like it would have to put down those 2’ totals through a prolonged event and backside CCB with high ratios…not as much a low capture or neg tilt that bombs a low off the capes.

Gefs amped more than 12z so far.

Waiting until then as well - if models stay consistent I’m definitely heading down south!

Gfs a big improvement over 12z. I think the 6” line is back to M/D line in western pa. I think this storm has been talked about so much already, it’s easy to forget it’s still 4+ days out.

Roughly 3 feet in GSO. Not going to happen. But another indication of abundant moisture at play

More shifts like that and parts of wake are struggling. As it is now, a one hour drive to Fayetteville gives you very little snow. Based on that one model run. .

So we should expect one of those infamous 60-72” forecasts?

I'd like to say I could just take that and be happy for you guys but I'd be lying. 2018 was sad enough, this would be worse.

Lighter accumulations on the 18z GFS, but better than what it $hite out at 12z

Thats dirty. Like nasty nasty. .

No, I am not buying the GFS. Not after what it showed at 12z. Need to see consistency

GFS follows ensembles and comes aboard.. Choo choo

What is happening is that I just bought a generator and propane heaters to find according to the GPS that favored snow for Upstate SC trended north and now shows a complete bust [emoji30] FML .

I don't think that the ridging over Florida and the Yucatan is going to allow for a negative tilt. Thats why its not bombing even on the runs that do show a phase. Kind of just an overrunning event on steroids like February 1994. If the northern stream digs more further west it can certainly prolong it though.

What is very interesting is that the GFS is now a southern version UK/CMC nuke job.

This run had zero freezing rain for RDU

Ridiculous run for sure. But some fun fiction.

Even at 384hrs, it's stupid, but < 4 days out. I'm at the point of being a little scared.