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Few years ago we had snow to ice on Christmas Eve. It was not bad.

As @MAG5035 just alluded to, CTP is highly confident in the map they released below for western PA. They are far less confident in what happens in the SE overnight tomorrow.

WCS: Pretty steady for now but still within a longer term (6 month) rise:

So we're tracking a potential snowfall arriving in less than 36 hours and yet are bickering/sarcastic over what the high temp will be 13 days from now? Come on guys. We're better than this. And both of you are likely getting snow tomorrow/early Sunday as well.

CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent.

I agree but when is the last time we had luck

Even though expecting 100% accuracy from a 456 hour long range forecast is delusional ….. the potential back to reality look (for the coast)) is sobering. Stay well all, as always ….

So...how's the PDO looking?

More like -20/-30

For the Alleghenies As the wave amplifies, most models show a jet steak developing downstream, with an enhanced band of precipitation developing in the equatorward entrance region of the jet streak. While there`s still some uncertainty with respect to exactly where this band winds up, most solutions have this enhanced band of precipitation developing along the I-95 corridor Saturday night. This could result in a relative minimum in precipitation between the Blue Ridge and the Alleghenies, with higher totals along the I-95 corridor (where the best synoptic forcing will be) and in the Alleghenies (where there will be some additional upslope snow as the system departs). With such a narrow banded feature, there`s still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation will ultimately fall. Precipitation could also potentially start as a brief period of rain along the I-95 corridor before much colder air rushes in later during the night behind an Arctic front. For these reasons, a wide variety of potential solutions exists, especially along the I-95 corridor. Further west, a high end- advisory or low-end warning level snowfall appears likely. Between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge lesser QPF amounts are likely with all precipitation likely falling as snow. Most solutions show a coating to two inches of snow in this area, but as much as 4 inches could be possible in a high end scenario in the Shenadoah Valley. Further east, around the I-95 corridor, the widest range of potential solutions exists. If most of the precipitation were to fall as rain, or the band of higher QPF were to shift northward out of the area, as little as a coating to an inch of snow could occur. Currently, we have 1-4 inches of snow forecast as the most likely scenario to the east of the Blue Ridge. In a high end scenario, as much as 6 inches of snow could occur under the heaviest part of the band if the precipitation stays all snow. Aside from the threat for snow early in the day, winds will pick up substantially behind this arctic front by Sunday afternoon. Expect wind gusts out of the northwest up to 30 mph, with gusts closer to 45 mph on the ridgetops out west. Wind headlines cannot be ruled out for the ridges during this timeframe as a result.

AI and EpS ensembles both in good agreement after the 20th. So weird to see a bulging ridge in the Midwest like that, but they have it. Definitely clipper and/or overrunning potential. Also can’t rule out a cutter too. Why can’t we get that 1500 miles more west lol.

if the choice is plain rain or inches of ice, every single one of us would choose ice

The snowfall data below is what I post each December for La Niña conditions using the newer RONI definition due to the warming of the global oceans. The December to seasonal snowfall relationship has worked 14 out of the last 15 times. My guess is the reason for the reliability as an early seasonal marker for below and normal to above average snowfall across the entire season is related to the La Niña seasonal progression. They tend to be more frontloaded in nature so their seasonal snowfall pattern is usually revealed early on in December. Plus in our warmer climate we have been noticing more repeating patterns perhaps related to non linear convective thresholds being met in tropical oceans driving the forcing. The relationship holds for NYC, EWR, and LGA. I will post the data for NYC below which is similar to the other two stations. For the sake of this discussion I have been using 4” of snow in December as the cutoff. But it’s possible that it could actually be a little higher around 5” inches based on the available data. So it’s fine if someone else wants to use a 4-5” snowfall range for December snowfall as the cutoff line for below and normal to above normal seasonal snowfall. I am not making the argument that the December snowfall is causing the outcome of the rest of the season to change. Just that it serves as a marker of what expect the rest of the season. Sometimes two data points can be related due to other underlying variables that may not yet be fully sampled by our current scientific understanding. I will update this post once we have the complete December snowfall data. NYC December to seasonal snowfall during the most recent 15 La Niña seasons as defined by RONI in either the fall into winter https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt 24-25….2.8”….12.9” 22-23….T……….2.3” 21-22…..0.2”……17.9” 20-21…..10.5”….38.6” 17-18……7.7”……40.9” 16-17……3.2”……30.2” the one case in the last 30 years that didn’t work out 11-12……0.0”…..7.4” 10-11…..20.1”…..61.9” 08-09…..6.0”…..27.6” 07-08……2.9”…..11.9” 05-06…..9.7”…..40.0” 00-01…..13.4”…..35.0” 99-00…..T……….16.3” 98-99……2.0”…..12.7” 95-96…..11.5”……75.6”

lol. we get it. We need a widespread storm tho

Sterling alluded to a "low end warning event" in their late morning AFD update?

I survived Icestorm 98, 2-2.50"+ of ice, That was enough for me.

Low of 29 and currently 44 and light graupel.

January thaw?

A lot of those events just didn’t have the confluence that we have with this one. It would start out as a wave moving off of NC and just tickle NW each run.

No man, all would not like an ice storm Christmas. I'll drive in the snow and be fine with that. But driving in ice is a absolute no! And I would venture to guess that a lot of us travel either Christmas Eve or Christmas day. But I'll be sure to put a good word into mother nature to make sure you have a good ice storm right in your hood.

When someone says we all would, It really means he would.

That was freaking ravaging.