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I think barring a significant regression, you can start tuning up the plows EOR because I don't see how this doesn't get banding well west of model depictions....again, assuming it doesn't verify further east.

Hoping the precip shield extent is being incorrectly modeled and we can at least cash in on a 2-4" type deal. Morning runs look like a close scrape so we could still cash in if that's the case

I wish there were more METS like yourself posting in this forum to guide us through this potential for obvious reasons.........

I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction. But we aren't seeing that. GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC. The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah.

Hopefully we can pull something off like January 2003 out of this one. That night was legendary. A solid foot of snow in like less than 12 hours. This has the makings of that potential again. Hopefully we get hammered.

Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty.

I’m hoping this has a massive slug shoved well into SNE vs a narrow occluded band.

CFS? Lol. Surprised Ant didn’t pull out the Korean.

Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD: Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise. While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data. Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US.

0Z CFS was a big hit....12Z CFS runs later....not sure how good this model even is.....

I think 1st half is cold/dry though def not snow free but second half gets a lot more active with that blocking pattern + RNA

This is low even for you. Go find someone with a headlight out or something.

Morning ob after driving to work.....local DOTs have really forgotten how to appropriately clear roads. In many spots, you almost wonder WTF they were actually doing.

Through 7:00 am Saturday

Want a band swath instead of banding to come in, if it comes in. we get the right flow as it moves (for mby yard is it SSW -> NNE then pivots to EEN - > SWW. Boom

yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure.

I could only find one Chester County station that fell to below zero this morning and that was our usual cold spot up in Warwick Township with a low of 2.6 below zero. Almost all spot saw lows in the single digits above zero. If anything, we get progressively colder the rest of this week with highs through Saturday several degrees lower than yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper teens with lows near zero to below. The potential weekend storm still looks like it will miss our area to the east toward the NJ shore but will need to be watched for any potential changes.

It's also important for us in the east as far as high-end potential is concerned.....I would cap things around a foot if it were to close off so far south.

I could only find one Chester County station that fell to below zero this morning and that was our usual cold spot up in Warwick Township with a low of 2.6 below zero. Almost all spot saw lows in the single digits above zero. If anything, we get progressively colder the rest of this week with highs through Saturday several degrees lower than yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper teens with lows near zero to below. The potential weekend storm still looks like it will miss our area to the east toward the NJ shore but will need to be watched for any potential changes.

The river by MDT is completely indistinguishable from the surrounding terrain. Just pure frozen tundra.

EPS 6z today vs 0z today and 12z yesterday... Baby steps toward a more impactful storm closer to the mid-Atlantic coast. Notice the western US ridge shifts slightly further west and stronger in more updated EPS runs, while the "kicker" shortwave from Hudson Bay to Manitoba/Ontario and MN shifts weaker. Also the TPV drops down further west and the departing upper trough over SE Canada is a little weaker, allowing better height rises over the W. Atlantic and New England ahead of the TPV.

Yeah I only saw 5. Was expectin neg digis.

Cfs huge hit

That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good sign

Cfs huge hit