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Need an event that’s snow at 1100’+ WoR and 33 rain at Tolland.

is a "furnace" hotter than a "torch" ? does the progression go like this: -0 to +0 average +1 to +2 warm +3 to +4 hot +5 to +6 torch +7 to +8 furnace or is it more like this: -0 to +0 average +1 to +2 torch +3 to +4 furnace +5 to +6 warm +7 to +8 hot I see from the reactions that I'm not the only one "confused"

Hope so but I just think it’s going to generally be too mild even at elevation . Maybe NW CT van get one though i

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with TCG by tomorrow along with rapid WNW movement in MDR along with it barely reaching TS status before weakening back to a TD though this time it remains a TC and strengthens back to a TS late moving much more slowly WNW near SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 32.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 36 13.0N 34.0W 1008 291200UTC 27.08.2026 48 13.2N 38.0W 1007 330000UTC 28.08.2026 60 13.8N 41.9W 1008 331200UTC 28.08.2026 72 14.6N 46.5W 1009 360000UTC 29.08.2026 84 15.6N 50.9W 1009 331200UTC 29.08.2026 96 16.9N 55.1W 1010 350000UTC 30.08.2026 108 17.8N 58.9W 1010 331200UTC 30.08.2026 120 19.0N 62.6W 1009 350000UTC 31.08.2026 132 19.6N 65.4W 1008 301200UTC 31.08.2026 144 20.5N 68.0W 1008 310000UTC 01.09.2026 156 21.3N 69.7W 1007 351200UTC 01.09.2026 168 22.2N 71.7W 1006 38

I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

It wouldn’t be aeration and seed season here if it wasn’t dry.

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue and cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table! Wall to wall snow cover! NO! But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...

I was curious about this and went back to check. Fall 2015 was actually dry in the area. Not drastically, but modestly BN each month. So I looked at Fall 1997 and 1982 also. Sept 97 was pretty dry and it got wetter as fall progressed with a wet November. 82 was more of a mixed bag with some variation between the airports but you could say average-ish regionally. For more modest ninos, fall 2018 was a deluge. Fall 2014 slightly dry, fall 2009 mixed month by month, and fall 2002 was wet. So maybe the nino=wet fall correlation is mostly in our heads from more typical ninos. With the tiny sample size of strong/super ninos, a dry September at least would be in-family.

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat! CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

this area had a derecho in july 97 and it was one of my spark events

NW of Route 2

You can tell this hurricane season is a lost cause because half of wx Twitter is "X hurricane made landfall on this date 13 years ago"

Union north?

Then we are in agreement

Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now. Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0! Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies: 7/22-31: Aug was +2.35 7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0 8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75 8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5 The trend is clearly down.

Definitely not interior CT.

I can see our last 90 occuring during this time frame. I think we easily hit 90 and high dews at the hot spots. Then hopefully kick summer out-good riddance.

This totally sounds like a Yogi Berra quote

Phillies/Birds. Summer is over, done, a "has been", kaput, no chance, winter school closings mid-November, fill up the snow blower... 74F/DP 61F

Don’t see anyway possible of your snowy interior SNE winter

Prep this

79/57 at 12:40. Amazing