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I think this breaks down around the first of October. LR ext models are hinting that we have about four more weeks of this furnace, and then it flips. I hate hot September weather with a white hot passion.

Thanks, Don. I can tell that Chris Martz has been affecting JB recently. Until recently, I recall JB (like many other mets) used to mention “heat dome” regularly without a sarcastic tone. But this summer whoever he mentions it, he often does so with a sarcastic tone. He doesn’t go out of his way to say it isn’t appropriate. But he clearly sounds like he’s making fun of the term.

Those showers coming in from PA are weakening as expected. Looks like just some sprinkles for our area.

Radar looks pretty intriguing. If it can wrap the deeper convection fully it has a chance to be more than a minimal TS.

As long as we don't get another September 1881 - which, if it happened nowadays, would probably produce a DCA monthly average of 93 / 76.

CAMs are struggling with garden variety convection holding temps down today over southern lower MI and just north of the Chicago area. Saw some nice tall lightning bolts from an unusually high cloud base. Some much needed rain. Looking at maps it seems it’s being triggered by moisture at 8-10k feet with origins in the desert SW. The surface humidity is safely capped off. Weird pattern.

Thanks, Don. Just to clarify for the readers in general, in case there’s confusion since I posted about Region 1+2 just four posts above Don’s, the +4.2 C Don posted for 1+2 is based on the traditional anomaly using 30 year base climo. The +3.5 I posted is based on taking into account warming overall mean worldwide tropical ocean temperatures to determine its anomaly. This is essentially a Region 1+2 version of Region 3.4’s RONI (called “relative”), which NOAA has decided to make official even though they continue to also update the traditional versions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

The radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the last few hours. We’ll see if it can develop an inner core quickly. If so, the ceiling rises substantially. 18z hurricane guidance now that there’s recon data on a defined center should be useful.

It was making real strides a few seasons back and then became absolutely worthless last year. Damn shame.

It's winter in the southern hemisphere. The latest weekly value for Region 1+2 is +4.2°C, its highest weekly value, so far.

DP crashed from 72 to 57 and our temp shot up to 91. Hottest day of the month.

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count. SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest.

My monthly stats: Highest temp: 99 Lowest temp: 68 Highest dew point: 85 Lowest dew point: 68 Rainfall: 7.35" Note: Our highest feels like temp was 129 on the 14th

Yup 12z GFS go gung ho through mid September.

doing the garden variety thing today, lush af

Another area to consider when trying to consider if the winter is going to be colder/snowier in the east is how the Arctic and Greenland Ice Sheet gained or lost Ice in the summer months. The Arctic lost very little Ice and the map below illustrates that potential source of cold air in the winter months Greenland actually gained Ice these last 3 months - encouraging news

000 FXUS61 KCTP 311810 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 210 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Adjusted POP/Wx to better align with Day 2-4 SPC SLGT risk && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity brings multiday severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat to kickoff September && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A series of mid level impulses tracking eastward along the northern periphery of an expansive 500mb ridge will interact with anomalous moisture/instability and strong WNW flow aloft to promote a multiday severe storm and excessive rain risk across portions of CPA Tuesday-Thursday. A surge of late summer heat (max temps 80-90F range) with dewpoints in upper 60s to low 70s will result in a very moist boundary layer with impressive MLCAPE values in the neighborhood of 2-3k J/kg given mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Forecast soundings also show robust deep layer/effective shear values and appreciably curved, sizable low level hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur. On balance, the environmental parameters are quite bullish for severe storm potential. However, timing (time of day), speed, and location of each mid level impulse will be key factors that could modulate the bullish severe setup to some extent. Increasing MUCAPE values late tonight through Tuesday morning suggest storms/severe risk likely won`t be tied to the typical diurnal cycle. The severe risk will shift to the south of CPA by Friday, but an upper trough passage suggests some lingering shower activity into the weekend. The late summer heat is forecast to peak Tuesday and Wednesday with very warm nights +10-20F above the historical average and max heat indices approaching advisory levels/century mark across parts of south central PA. The upper ridge is forecast to retrograde by the end of the week which allows for increased troughing and a return to more seasonal temperatures for early September.

We did not get a tropically controlled August but we did get a wet and not a hot one either. 4.7” in Kemp Mill and 6.8 in Frederick

It looks like the rain will be approaching the city in another hour or two. Which is weird since the the NWS removed rain chances from the "This Afternoon" section. And AccuWeather/TWC wasn't really expecting much in their hourlies until they updated it after lunch to show increasing chances in the afternoon/evening.

Nice stormy and humid day to close out August! Pesky mosquitoes are having the time of their life rn.

Updated to extend to Thursday. NAM, GFS, and Euro are in agreement in the warm sector expanding northeast on Thursday as the upper-level trough swinging across southeastern Canada along with the eastward progression of the parent low help lift the surface warm front into the region. Pretty strong shear too. Tuesday looks good for southeast propagating storms at least across western CT with some severe risk. Much of Wednesday is dry but may see a round of rain and storms move across the region Wednesday night. Thursday we get stuff ahead of the actual front.

Seems to be a cocktail of events ... the old 'chain of misfortune culminating in the plain crash' scenario. I do think that this event began years ago, so to speak ( mentioned the reciprocal thawing and refreezing aspect a while ago, too). I'm also wondering if water accumulating at the glacial-floor interface may have been partially instrumental. In this idea, the integrity of the ice being compromised, then, ...the floor friction can hold the weight back from being 'lubricated' ...so all that was remaining was ice itself. May for an easier instant of calving and pulling away. Every good play on Broadway took months of preparation for just 2 hours of show.

more EPS members hit CA at 12z though