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Yes,they didnt put there link at the bottom for nothing more than click bait,But in general you can look at East Asia to show you what the pattern might look like in several days,you see a trough going through Mongolia/Russia,with ridging building up into the Koreas with a ULL passing by NE Japan,it should look like this a ridge in the middle of the counrty,a crappie PNA and a ULL IN the NE,still the same the cold in winter relies on other teleconnections

Everything glazed, -FZRA 27° Driveway was treacherous when I took doggo out.

Getting mangled snowflakes to start. 27/17

Going to be no issues inside 128. Rain and 33.1*

Warm wet and cold dry is the new reality for our region. .

At this point the Euro suite is the only models to go by. Along with the GEM which is good at picking up on colder air.

Schedules lined up today to make the whole family available for skiing, so we headed up to Bolton Valley for a session. Things started off cold in the single digits F for the early morning around here, but by the time we headed up to the mountain in the mid-morning period, temperatures were up into the 20s F with plenty of sunshine. Conditions on the slopes are excellent, and it really was a spectacular day for getting outside – it was so good that the National Weather Service Office in Burlington even mentioned it in their afternoon discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 129 PM EST Sun Dec 28, 2025 NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 127 PM EST Sunday...High clouds are beginning to stream into the region out ahead of the storm system tonight into Monday. The lingering effects of a polar high is keeping winds relatively calm. A stark temperature inversion is in place today, with mountain temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s, while elsewhere is in the upper teens or twenties. Overall, it`s a great day for winter recreation. We’re in the big holiday week now, so there are certainly plenty of visitors at the resort, but the quality of the snow both on piste and off piste is excellent, and conditions are holding up well. Everything is open except for the Timberline area, so we roamed all over the main mountain’s alpine trails, hitting some excellent groomers as well as powder off piste. For the first time in a while, there wasn’t any fresh power this morning, but the resort has seen two feet of snow in the past week, and temperatures have been cold, so there are plenty of adventures to be had with fresh tracks if you poke around a bit. Arriving when we did in the mid-morning period, we had to park down at Timberline and shuttle up to the main mountain, but without any mountain operations taking place on Timberline, we were able to ski back down to the car. They’ve made a ton of snow at Timberline in the past several days, and the rumors I’m hearing are that they’d like to open in time for the New Year’s holiday. They’ll just need to groom out all the huge snowmaking whales they’ve put down, but it sure seems like there’s plenty of snow there to open up that lower part of the resort now.

We shall see!

Don, where did you get your numbers for the 18z HRRR and NAM output? They don't match pivotal, so I assume you derived them somehow. But using what method? I don't think you responded to this question from earlier. To my knowledge, bufkit does not output snow/ice accumulations. Your tables also reinforce the false belief that weather models generate forecasted snowfall as output.

Yep, I get so tired of people saying, oh, the cold is a week away.The cold is a week away, and then it gets pushed back.And pushed back, and then when we actually do get into the cold..Nowhere near is.It has historic as the temperature guidance suggested instead of like being thirty degrees below.Average.It's like ten

Latent heat release is real. SLK with a quick 0.07” at temps in the 20s. Gotta be slick out there. The ice maps are just QPF at temps 32F or lower… but a tenth of an inch as ZR gets slippery in a hurry on roads, driveways, parking lots, etc.

every year they're out there throwing sparks at nothing, but the other night didn't see a plow until well after midnight, they're out now slipping and sliding up the hill trying to treat it, waste time and resources early and if we have a rough winter cry about budget in February they're out of sand and salt etc...btw, still 30 and pretty steady ZR here now, my station needs new batteries so closest one will have to due

30.3°

GYX really leaning into the ice huh?

THIS IS TRUTH

31F

"Letter of the law" how so? All the data I've pored over supports the idea that the NAM performed best with QPF and ptype from about 3 days out until Friday afternoon. The ECM was probably second best with a late adjustment northeastward. The NAM was consistently 0.2 - 0.5" liquid across the NYC metro with a frozen ptype over its last few runs before the event. Despite "generous" final tallies for EWR and NYC, that's how it played out. It was best in the LHV, ENY, CT, and SNE. The ECM was too far southwest across the board. I'm not even sure how this is contentious. I feel like Don is/was biased against the NAM leading to a non-scientific and distorted assessment.

Up to 31

A mesoscale winter. Lake effect, upslope, the moist cold air advection spots. And a few random synoptic events. Suppressed at times.

We got way too many models to keep up with now imo

GFs is warm wet cold dry. Great patterns have been 2 weeks away for the last 10 years.

Absolutely no need for those conditions... Terrible DPW management!

27.6/25 on a very light NNE wind. Probably above freezing by midnight.