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Potential storm is near full moon, would be big storm surge issues in e MA on some depictions. I have not formed an opinion on actual probability of this happening anywhere near land yet ... my usual method is to let smart people make that decision and then double down. Worked like a charm on the last one.

I'm actually right at climo which is surprising but also a testament to how bad my climo is LOL. I can't find a detailed climo map but I think climo is around 12" and sitting at 11.1 in January feels good. I was around 12" last year too. If we truly are entering a longer term blocking cycle my move south might not be as bad in the snow dept as I assumed.

Ok this is legit nuking now. Before it was like that super efficient 3/4-1 mile cotton balls but now it’s just ripping down with vis under a half mile.

14.6 for the storm. 32.85 for the season.

Wound up with 9.0" here, 6.3" of snow and 2.7" of sleet. No liquid during the day, I was out in it. Must have had some freezing drizzle on the tail end, the sleet surface was locked together today. What an awesome storm, all snow would have been nice, but the sleet worked out just fine. Snowpile is happy! Plus there are a bunch of extra piles due to the volume. Now this week feels like about as heart of winter as it gets around here, between the snowpack and the cold. This winter is no slacker!

Not so fast my friends…. Check again… they revised it down to a more realistic 12.5 last night at MDT… I picked 12.3…so I think that crown belongs to me!

I don't know man. I feel like this one has to go well to hit Richmond. Very well to hit DC. It just feels like if anything it shifts East on us Maybe, I'm wrong and someone will correct. But I just don't think the tendency of this setup is NW shifts like the last one

People keep saying this. But SWFE/WAA events have issues too. Sure there are less moving parts but that doesn’t mean easier. You need the perfect thermal boundary placement. We still need the cold to be south of us. If the low Amplifies to our west we will still flip. If it’s under amped or the boundary presses south we get suppressed. We’ve barely had any coastals the last 9 years. We’ve had dozens of SWFEs and yesterday was the first warning level snow I’ve had from any of them and it was anything but easy and ended up half sleet and only worked because of an anomalous cold wave! Meanwhile my hit rate on coastal is way way way higher. We’ve barely had any frankly but the handful we have had make up my only decent snowstorms since 2016, which was a coastal btw. I just don’t see all this evidence that SEFEs are easier way to score big snowstorms here. Frankly imo the biggest reason we’ve not had much snow (other than it’s been warm, although these 2 things are related because I’d the thermal boundary is way to our NW we aren’t getting coastals) is that we’ve had almost no coastal storms the last 9 years.

Buckle up people.

I think we will see it come west, Pretty impressive total for this skynet run even with its offshore track, You can shave a couple 10'ths off for tonight's stuff.

Re: Weekend…A small uptick in snow for SE KY, SW VA, and NETN with the Euro op. Precip shield made it over the mountain that run and northern stream energy was decent. SLP was further off the coast though - east. Still a tough sell. More snow with that run, but having to depend on a low that far off the coast is usually not good.

Very nice Mitch, the MOGREPS didn't actually do too bad with this past storm (I think at least )

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Not sure how you guys feel about Bernie Rayno. He really thinks this thing is going to hit the Northeast, but even has a good chance of hitting anywhere from DC straight up through New England... But he did specify that New England has the highest chance of this verifying. Guess we'll know more in the next couple of days

I don't thing anyone posted the Ukie ensembles from 12z. Recall the operational was a miss, but not so with the ensemble mean.

Huh

the spire with 3 feet for bob chill!

HRRR says we get to 4 below and who am I to question our flagship CAM

8

Or living in Loudoun and not Sussex County, DE .

Can we grab another 2-3” here in SE MA

You absolutely nailed the northern trend of the last storm. Can't wait for you to start the WEST trend.

Whoohoo. I finally won somethin!! glad Middletown norther westers did so well. Maybe next one it’s a taint fest down here. Snowmobiling is decent but the fin zr we got fr 2 hrs makes it dicey jut there. Just gonna have to pack it down. Looks like it’s stayin around. enjoy all.

Should be out at 8