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Absolutely not. We all know the tenor. So the implication is not even close to true. Where was the warm run? I don’t have anymore respect for that model…it’s(The Op) slowly but surely becoming more atrocious. If it(the Op) shows cold…or warm whatever. EPS is still good, but that’s a different story.

Yeah, I like these events that go SW flow ahead of them and then NW flow behind them.... Usually works out decently for the mountains, especially if the low level flow is SSE to begin. I could see a widespread 3-6" from the Adirondacks across BTV and into VT... or maybe 2-5" instead for the lower elevations under 1,500ft and 4-7" above that? Agree with BTV that the GFS is overdoing it and likely the NAM too. More like 0.20 to locally 0.5" in the mtns for QPF instead of that big area of 0.33-0.75"?

18z AI EPS main issue is lack of good precip getting near most of the region.

The lower snow totals on the 18z AI EPS are mostly due to a south & east track cluster and lower precipitation totals that held down snow amounts on most members. It basically followed the Op AI Euro this run.

Yes, ha, that 3km NAM stuff is useless over the peaks and terrain. I read something once that it's confusing rime icing parameters for actual precipitation but I can't quite wrap my head around it. Because it doesn't *always* do it... there's definitely some variable, like the terrain hits the cloud deck and all the sudden it goes bananas for precip. The only way to really read what its saying is to look at adjacent areas to the mountains. When it gets that super sharp gradient of like 0.2" in Underhill or Stowe and like 1.5"+ over the peak in like 6-12 hours, lol, it's like ok NAM, stop it with the ridgelines. The HRRR seems much better with the terrain around these parts... just the right amount of enhancement... wish we could get whatever precipitation calculation that uses into the 3KM NAM.

There’s never a time stamp on his pictures when they’re posted like that.

It will probably nail a future cutter though

Pick your model. If one picks Feb 8th ext GEFS like you did (2/9 ext GEFS not out yet), it looks mild. But if one picks the Euro Weeklies, which is a superior model to the GEFS, it isn’t as it’s a mix of AN, NN, and BN. Of course none of them are reliable that far out. But I much prefer the ext Euro over ext GEFS.

Cold run…tenor Warm run…glue

360 hr GFS is OG .

One would think

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will get back on the saddle...

No need I can handle myself. The pattern where our temps can produce is obvious. ..

I'd imagine the El Niño could help with that, right?

Feb 2020 was a blowtorch. Got into the 60s. Something like that would delete negative departures in no time.

Scott too…so go tell hime that too. The thing blows. Keep humping it though.

Just showing the facts.

Wonder if @cyclone77 will tag 70 next week? I wouldn't rule it out based on recent model runs...

Colorful sunset tonight. Stoney Creek frozen. Hard to believe that there is still so much snow left after all this time.

Yup.

In due time...

Those looked south too. At 18z anyways.

Euro was bad with the Jan 25th system, last to the party on the Feb 1st whiff, and unable to depict the Essex county invt trough on 2/7. That's a lot to be wrong about in a short amount of time..locally

Cherry picking cities will do that

Could be like a March 2024 redux where the first half was record warm and the second half cooled off to near or slightly below average, despite completely different ENSO conditions.