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That was a record ridge, though....didn't see anyone forecast that magnitude.

The 1998 ice storm left a nice-looking white birch bent nearly 90°. The tree was 7-8" diameter and had been 45-50 feet tall. When I noticed it was lifting a bit, I tossed a rope over it about 25 feet from the stump, attached the rope to my come-along and to another tree. Every few days I'd cinch up the rope and by mid-April the tree was back to nearly vertical. We then moved to New Sharon on May 15 so I've no idea how that birch is doing now. About 2" here, with off-on light snow, temp low 20s.

Decent slug of freezing rain and 30 degrees on the Auburn/Worcester line. We went from a 2 hour delay to closed around 8 AM, and it was the right call (my students had no idea a delay might be in the cards until I mentioned it yesterday). .

Full sun is MOST welcome for me anyway to start the day. Happy with 50s too. Need a mental weather reset after too many days of cold and gray with no snow.

Sh.it is everywhere in CT. Every few months the firm changes the billboards with a new theme. Right now they're in some kind of Jets football theme. They've had famous actors and athletes represented on those advertisements for years, including Jared Goff, who is not related to founder Brooke Goff, but the clever marketing off of the same last name is pretty smart.

Yeah…was at least hoping for a good soaker. Trending towards rain but not as beefed up as prior runs. .

Snowing lightly again in Simsbury.

Actually the MET was 50 at FIT for tomorrow off the 00z output. I'm surprised a MOS product was that high.

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter. But I see how it might have been taken that way. My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing. I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral. Flukes happen. 2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years. 2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February. 1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March. Same with 2018. And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet. All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way. I don't know how much. My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in. But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way. The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.

Charlton must get getting whacked right now. tiny snow and sleet grains here

Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2: -GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw) -EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw) - These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle are decreasing. - The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected): # of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF 70s-80s: 11 90s-00s: 17.5 10s-20s: 23 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4) These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7: -2024 -2021-18 -2016-3 -2011-8 -2006 -2004 -2002 -1997 -1993-2 -1990-89 -1986 -1979 -1976 Note how much less common phase 6-7 periods with 2+ amp were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)! —————— Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit: # of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase 1: 17 (only 4%) 2: 26 (only 6%) 3: 67 (14%) 4: 51 (11%) 5: 57 (12%) 6: 101 (a whopping 22%) 7: 104 (a whopping 22%) 8: 42 (9%) So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FIVE times as frequent as Jan phase 1-2 days!

Same. Went out to bring in the trash can, they came super early. Saw it was 53 on my station and was like yeah lets see. Surprised to walk out of the garage into balmy spring like conditions. Even a hint of a bit of moisture sometime over night. Nothing on my station so must have been very light but just enough to make things damp. Kind of making it hard to eat my breakfast of oatmeal with blueberries and bananas.

cut them in Spring. They never seems to pop back

True The other issue is we use 30 year means that are actually lagging in a decreasing trend so the means might be misleading. I am not saying the trend will continue, I have no interest in having this fight again right now, but IF...IF the trend does continue eventually the mean for Baltimore, for example, will be about 13" and then a lot of these winters classified as "below normal" looking back would just be normal or slightly above normal if we applied a 30 year mean centered on that year (using both 15 seasons before and after it).

"No, Goff Law Group and Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff are not related by family, but they have a professional marketing partnership where he appears in their advertisements, leveraging their shared last name for catchy slogans like, ""Join Our Family" and "We Will Bring You to the End Zone,"," according to Hartford Business Journal and Goff Law Group. Brooke Goff, the law firm's founder, is a football fan and former player, which led to the successful campaign"

I should just make that my winter forecast every year “unfortunately”

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that.

I mean if we are being honest below average is the norm with everything but a Modiki at this point.

I think it's a temperature nerd's first day - call it a "warm up" for the impending MOS bust season. lol

Key word in this write up= Unfortunately

yeah, I'm just referencing the NAM RH levels. Haven't looked at other guidance, but 18z had < 50% over Logan, which is typically sun soaked. It may be cloudier western areas, sooner. Plus, it's the NAM for period 4

There could be some breaks in the afternoon/midday. I wonder if the CON-MHT-ASH-LWM corridor verifies warmer with SW flow off the higher terrain.

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........

That's awesome...I had a feeling. Explains some of the advertisements too. Her ads are great BTW...always enjoy them. She knows how to do it