All Activity

CMC amped , GFS suppressed. Yet every model run gives RVA a nice snow storm

It will be a couple hours for it to flip south if it is gonna try to recover. Probably won’t be some ridiculous show like it could have been if the orientation was south -60 instead of north, but 20 or so south in an agitated magnetic field could still give us a show of some kind I hope

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range. This forum had this window from way out there. Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax go pick up your long ranger awards). The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high. Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15. The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16. Pretty incredible for a that model or any model. Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.

Maybe a decade now without a good overrunning event like this!

Gonna be chaos in here when we go from subzero highs to upper 30 rains at the end of the month. .

Already done with the early bird special at Dennys? Bedtime for you soon

I feel like we’ve seen this movie a dozen times. This will correct NW over the coming days. If you’re in the Southern Mountains from Highlands to Saluda, get ready.

Yea, wind was a little sharp at times, but overall a very Colorado-style day.

I can barely remember my pin for my ATM card. When you get old and feeble the memories of past storms all bleed together. The snows from 1899 and 2016 are one in the same to me

Right there with you. It ain't right, I'm telling ya...a whole generation is going through their childhood without knowing what it's like! I was blessed to have a childhood with 1996, 2000, 2003, and 2006. But this time? I mean dang over a decade you'd think ONE time we could get something more than an inch or two to work out. And our yards in particular! There's some imaginary snow shield or something, smh I just don't get it, smh Yeah this one is far from resolved but you can't but feel like "Here we go again" when you see a model showing an unfavorable solution. Even the dang Ninos we've had in 18-19 and 23-24 didn't do jack diddly SQUAT. I mean we likely have another one coming next year so maybe we can try that again but man...rough!

Not putting any stock into the GFS rn. It’s scored the lowest outta all the models. .

Snowing right now

18z gfs

Carolina crusher.

Which leads to the inevitable question Stormtracker continues to ponder...Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya'?

Quoted the above to help consolidate our tallies and impressions into the same thread for rolling reference... I agree: for Jan 18-19 2026 event, my impression was the AI models crushed legacy physics models in the 2-5 day range... we had multiple legacy models and cycles showing 0 QPF beyond far southeast MA vs. AI models showing with remarkable consistency solutions like those below. Within 24-48h, legacy models including EC/GFS and hi-res models NAM/HRRR etc were helpful to refine details. Can anyone suggest an objective and easily accessible measure of verification if not QPF? Here are CoCoRaHS QPF estimates for 7a-7a, compared to guidance below, all 24h ending 12z 1/19/2026:

You should try and figure it out

Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out?

Jeez, I have no idea where to go on that website. Just show us the money panels.

The GFS has been trash with this. It's inconsistent within itself and its ensembles.

My guess is we’ll get something or it won’t be that close.

Wow, 2 feet for my area. Lock it in.

As we currently stand, the NE mets are doing a fine job of ignoring how flat the HP is over them.

What does a Ji do on a day like this? Is this blue enough? Does the high wear off after each run? Too weak? Too strong? End up on the news pitching tent?

True