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I really don’t at this point in my life. But like writing, it’s seems it does have writing on some sort of wall.

0Z UKMET Nolo: still stays significantly S of Big Island but 9/30+ again turns NE to not too far S of Big Island: HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 156.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 14.9N 156.1W 990 46 1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 155.8W 985 57 0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 15.9N 155.0W 983 65 1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 15.9N 154.4W 985 55 0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.3N 154.7W 985 50 1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 14.2N 155.4W 988 42 0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.4N 156.4W 989 41 1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 157.5W 988 43 0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.0N 158.6W 984 51 1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.7N 159.1W 982 56 0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.5N 158.6W 977 60 1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 16.1N 157.3W 975 61 0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.5N 155.8W 983 54 1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.0N 154.7W 989 52 0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.6N 154.3W 995 42

As he licks his chops he theoretically hopes it misses?

If the high pressure over SE Canada does a 50/50, we are in quite the pickle for us “flat-landers”

0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW: TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26 1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31 0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30 1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27 0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23 1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23 0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22 1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22 0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22 1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26 1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26 0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29 1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30 0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

I’m still hungry. Still waiting for my dinner of “words”, cuz I do not want this for me/family and friends, but sadly the trend is not a friend I have..

Only reason k remember 3ff of snow is because, the precursor storm was plowing MLway above model expectations.

Two things can be true at the same time. Take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies: Gulf of Mexico is far and away the warmest compared to average to date at the moment. Central Atlantic top 3, subtropic Atlantic top 5. That you can't deny without trying to discredit the satellite data. At the same time though, obviously shear is an overwhelming issue in the Atlantic basin, given that the El Nino is the most anomalous feature on the planet. But importantly, take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies nearer to this storm system. Surely that is promoting a stronger storm, and if you go back into the database, such anomalously warm waters only started showing up there more recently.

Remember “Nemo”? Convecfive feedback is what changed the area of highest impact 50 miles east from whom was supposed to jackpot. This is very similar. No one is gonna going to know till the beast is unleashed, and she’s just getting her tether.

Granted, go-time is getting close, but the the dynamics of the beast are dynamics.

Those numbers are so bogus…and a lot those warm water temps did for the zero hurricane season in the Atlantic to date. Wasn’t it supposed to be just the opposite?

Not done yet “doing the shuffle.”

0z NAM/ICON/GFS all show this turning left into NJ , sorta similar to what the EURO AI has been showing but slightly more south. Looks like we got our consensus. Congrats NJ

love that hrrr - minimal impacts here through Sat pm.

Why so? Their methodology seems rock solid and makes logical sense.

Hailstoned hailstoned groan and boned….

40-48 hr the 00z HRRR shows it taking on more ST characteristics w/ a more focused core wind field. RRFS does this but it take more than 24 hr after this time, and the low just meanders around to the S of us for the entire 84 hr period! Lots of time to do odds stuff! @WxWatcher007 I know will be closely tracking the exact sfc low position relative to the SSTs!

Get them here! https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/gibbs/

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops. RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

I’m thinking a soft, yet strong landfall on LI, doing its dance and meandering around BIS as it kaboots in its feeble state Monday.

I got to give you props for pulling up this old satellite image!

trumpy, trumpy temper tantrum...