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If anyone is awake and able to get outside this morning, a space x launch may result in a jellyfish cloud around 6:40.

Much cooler than I anticipated with a current temp of 44 degrees.

Nobody thought it would be easy to replace fossil fuels. Ten years ago low carbon emission scenarios depended heavily on carbon capture, nuclear and biofuels. It has proven difficult to advance those technologies. On the other hand solar, batteries and EV have advanced much faster than anticipated and it is easier to replace fossil fuels with those technologies than anticipated. Your views on the cost of renewables are outdated. The energy cost increases we are seeing are due to fossil fuels. Supply disruptions and the inability to meet increasing demand in a timely manner being the biggest problems. Energy costs would be even higher without renewable, batteries and EV. Countries that have to import fossil fuels are trying to find a cheaper more reliable alternative. Even in Texas, where local natural gas is plentiful, met 80% of new power demand with solar last year.

Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. Edit: 0z weakened the pattern

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

Just not a very good model. I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input

How large of a region will be covered? I’m basically asking if this will cover the Adirondacks too lol.

JAMSTEC OCT update DJF 2m Temp DJF Precip

Yeah you are right. It's a small sample size. I was kind of being hyperbole to a point really but this is uncharted territory and we are seeing an early season weakening of the PV already. Ig the NAO and AO fire then we are in business.

This would be amazing for the drought.

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill. CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

What a sick game. I was in the ATL for it, such an incredible game and an insane amount of Ravens fans. There were at least 15,000 Ravens fans there, it was incredibly loud. At times you thought it was a Ravens home game. It was soo much fun. 7d7a878e-fe3c-4e42-ba0a-05be0a8a86cd.mp4

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1.

1.12" total rainfall.