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I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming.

18z NAM looks a touch colder through 30. Keep it coming.

Pretty clear move south in better alignment with most other models. TW

Comparing hr21z frames between 18z and 12z NAM, the snow line was about 4 counties further South in Tennessee and the 700mb was colder and flatter across. It seemed to lose the more drastic difference though as we moved into hr00z. Snow line is still further south in TN and 700mb is better in places but not drastically.

Oh brother, I poked the bear with a climo comment

HRRR shows 2 inches of snow for Knox followed by an inch of ice prior to hitting 33 and going full rain.

Yep mentioned that earlier and the snow sleet line is nc va border now. Looks like we snow 7pm ish

Randy might have found it during that Tug Hill blizzard fest.

Look a the southern border of KY. The snow/sleet line moved considerably south from the 12Z run.

Oh I got NO IDEA how FGEN works. Notice how all my good posts are in the 3-5days before a storm range as synoptics is what I know. Though from my video I hope you can apply some of it over to FGEN.

HRRR back to upping overall freezing rain totals the last couple runs. Hoping it continues as I would like some serious ice.

includes sleet

https://x.com/i/status/2014730518286242198 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.

QPF is the key so we are good even though totals might not be as much. Fluffy dry snow while easier to shovel settles in a day or two and we're pretty much where we'd be with lower ratios. Fluffy snow looks better for our totals, but lower ratio snow looks better for our base.

Bye bye snow, hello sleet

How is Dr u?

I think NE OH is in a good spot for this one...the heaviest QPF axis will remain a bit to our south, but soundings suggest ratios should be around 15:1 for most of the day Sunday (and likely climbing higher in any lingering lake enhanced snow by early Monday). There have been slight bumps SE in my eyes in both the 0z and 12z runs today, but we're still solidly inside the swath of heavier snow. Overall, I don't expect much more than small fluctuations/trends from here on in with this storm but I'll try to look at what could change. There are some sensitivities to both how well the storm phases to our southwest and how much the PV over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is trying to press in. A better phase would argue for a further northwest track, but northwest trends have been stunted for the last several runs now due to the PV to the north not lifting out much as the storm deepens and tracks NE Saturday night into Sunday. This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. That has resulted in what I think has been a small SE bump in these recent runs. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference. This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. Overall, guidance has bumped SE a bit in recent runs but the overall change hasn't been much for NE OH, as we are pretty solidly inside the swath of heavier snow. There will be some snow from late Saturday night through Monday morning in NE OH, a long duration, with the heaviest occurring late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening as it looks now. Despite the icy lake, there will probably be some form of enhancement amid lingering light synoptic snow through at least Monday morning as the storm pulls away. My guess is rates will generally be modest, but a few hours of rates pushing an inch per hour on Sunday seem feasible. My guess on snow for most of NE OH would be in the 7-13" range...only sticking 7" in there in case the PV presses in a bit more and we see another small bump or two SE, though if you take guidance as it is now we'll pretty solid for like 9-12". It does get iffier for Toledo, they currently look solid for something like 5-8" but are a bump SE away from seeing that decrease some more.

Oh so now we have “I-95 theory?” CMC trolling…. .

Elevation has no bearing on mid level temps and changes to sleet.

Agreed. When I think transfer i think upper level low transferring its energy. Redevelopment I picture a storm coming into the Tenn Valley and hitting a roadblock and being forced to redevelop farther downstream. I could be wrong tho.