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last norlun i can remember put 7" on my house, while 10 miles away it was 1" at a friends. They are a rarity, but fun if you get in it.

Checking in over lunch time & the 12z Euro agrees mostly with your current thoughts. It is remarkable that the GFS doubled down at 12z. Even half of that run would be great to see. This Euro run we get a few inches from the initial coastal low before it heads east. Then the LSV gets bullseyed with the Norlun Sunday night & tacks in a few more inches. In total, this run still brings Warning level snow to most of the LSV. Maybe a compromise of some kind will still take place before game time? Here is the 12z Euro.

White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday

Its come a few tics north from the last couple days so that has helped too on modeling.

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

A lot of post 12z coping/venting in here, including myself. Still a small window to correct this to a decent hit in SE areas, but probably need to see those moves tonight. It seemed to me that the OPs moved towards the ensembles while the ensembles kinda shifted west a bit. I know that's still not great for many

I would never pay a dime for the info. They should never attempt any forecast until whatever it is that is supposed to ignite all this is at Least 1/3rd of the way across the nation. The cover all bases is very real and highly suspect

500 map does look like a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario.

Don't think there was much to show from the Euro anyway

Enjoy the cirrus

The Pack is also Crap. The Piles looked good actually until 2 days ago. It tried its best to last. Ya Will all these people acting like winter is totally over with a month and a half left of snow chances is insane. Totally insane. The negative is not that winter is about to be over, it’s that we can’t add to this fairly historic pack, and getting a 2 foot blizzard like those1980’s storms or 1997 in late winter doesn’t really do much for anyone. Just fun for the statistics and the day like 1997 was.

JMA (for what it's worth)

This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal.

Straight to warnings here 4-8

It’s a shame how he’s passed his negativity and emotions onto the children

FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet.

Yeah, looks crappy. You'd think with the setup even on it, there would be more upslope Snow than depicted. Looks too dry and probably a bit warm . Those are biases of it.

Bye bye storm bye bye winter

Monday is not a whiff

Like it would morph into May lol. Its Feb 19th enjoy

yippee! Would rather it be sunny and dry than that.

No one seems interested in it…

Not with cold pattern but I knew that post would cause a response from you

things are real bad right now - no way to sugar coat it

^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol