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So assuming our coming strat split happens, how long will it take to couple at the surface. I know @Stormchaserchuck1 might have stats on that.

you're tellin' me

Weenie model - but you have had the hot hand since last week.

"Rockport gets destroyed in yet another Blizzard of the Century" Even stronger

If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right.

We were literally 4 degrees away from a 25+ bomb

Posted that 2 hours ago. He's a copy cat! Lol

Will be interesting to see what the High-res models do with the ULL moisture as they get into range. Even without the bomb Eastern areas may actually have a shot at the biggest snow of the year.

Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.

And the NAM much lower would be my guess? Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge. 2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday. The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches. The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".

It's crazy to see snow dumping over the gulf stream off the South Carolina coast. But here we are where it snows heavily over warm ocean areas but avoids it at all costs for East Tennessee.

It’s been a long time since we’ve had lee side enhancement. I couldn’t even recall the last time we’ve had that setup. Long overdue.

Why doesn't anyone use the NAVGEM anymore? It's good enough for the Navy!

He definitely did lol. Now we just need to send him the bat signal to tell us the models will start catching on by this time tomorrow.

It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. Its all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust.

Time for a model blackout for me. Ill come back around this time tomorrow. Will know then if its done and cooked or alive and well.

i believe @psuhoffmansaid those would probably show up around this time

Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lol

Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs.

Jan 96 and 2016....no complaints here.

I think all I can say with any confidence is at least measurable snow has become more likely for most of North Carolina. If you take the runs both the deterministic and the ensembles, and yes, AI has a seat at the table now too I suppose, I think miserable snow has become more likely for a good portion of the state. Still have to iron out the details and there are a lot of details still, but that seems to be a growing model consensus and even an increasing confidence from local Mets, etc. .

I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms.

With the road conditions around my neighborhood, even a 1-3 inch snowfall followed by another week of frigid weather would have a very outsized impact. Looks like my days in VT out there right now.

I've always wondered if I will ever see a blizzard in my life that beats 1978 totals. With climate change it seems less likely but we've still had some massive storms the last couple of decades so I guess anything is possible. But it goes to show you just how rare and special that storm really was. 1996 came close but that was six months before I was born. 2005 was the biggest of my life and that was fun. 2013, 2015, and 2022 were amazing also.