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FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

For the 100th time macungie got crap. The outflow boundary killed lehigh county once again. The story of this summer The haves and have not.

An uninspiring 0.20” Thursday but it did get me over 4” for August (Columbia)

anything to rationalize the irrational

Name changes are more common than you think. Just look at all the pro sports stadiums. You don't realize it, but their name changes hand often, and sometimes silently. As they say, in this country, if you pay enough...

Around this time in 2024 we had a tropical remnant system headed our way and a massive precip forecast. Instead the bulk of the rain refused to go north of Richmond.

Storm got to my doorstep yesterday then changed its mind and just disappeared into thin air. lol

Looks like a great weekend coming up! Finally drying out a bit around here.

Tappan Zee bridge changed to Governor Mario Cuomo Bridge.

There's no debate. The objective reality is that this was caused by destabilization of geological mass (ice/rock/water) failing and thus accelerating from elevation. The +flux (which means increase) of melt water destabilizes the previous the geologic structural integrity that previously held glacial lake mass, and potentially destabilizing land mass(es) made to fail, at bay. A collapse was inevitable. Occurring at significant elevation provided excessive momentum - a structural failure that went on to become mass-gaining. The land, ice, or both-slide probably inundated and ultimate pushed out glacial lake, and then en masse accelerating down the highly sloped region... Subsequently gaining more mass most every time in swept through and acquired any alpine lakes and kettle nadirs that may have been transiently filled with seasonal melt ...etc etc... Now you have a biblical torrent with so much mass/weight it is capable of setting of seismology detection as it rumbles down slope. That's it as far as cause. The rest is humanity building civility in the fertile/convenience of an alpine river valley, thus inherently placed in potential harms way. It is important to mention that anytime you place civility under a geological feature, eventually, given time, something like this is going to happen. It is perhaps of even more importance to mention, the acceleration of climate change is going to bring about this sort of thing with increased frequency. Everywhere around the world where these risk zones that can be sought out and identified should be addressed. Now. But won't be... so that people can instead get off on these dystopian horror shows, watching what are likelier than not to become regular matinees as we go on blithely in denial or just stupidly forward in (humanity's end time?) history. Just wait until Greenland goes on ahead does the impossible whence its land-locked ice slides on off into the ocean, setting off a 22 ft global tsunamis that doesn't run back out to sea after it sweeps in for lunch and eats 3.8 billion lives one single afternoon. Or Antarctica... Luckily, these regions are "assumed" be slow contributors to sea-level rise. Great. But, one thought an entire planet and all it its integrated systems, could up and rise a half degree C in the spring of 2023 ... and stay there, either. Has anyone else paused in a moment of startling realization that we are living in an era where the impossible actually happens? By the way, the Greenland massive landslide in September 2023, remember? The one that set off a 200M mega-tsunami through the Dickson Fjord. It was also seismically detectable, worldwide for that matter. The planet rang like a bell for nine days.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Yeah should be interesting if/when it opens back into a wave, will NHC immediately put an orange/red back onto the TWO.

True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede

I could get behind the petition to rename Canadian geese as Donald ducks.

Great pic! I'd send one, but it would have just been of the cloud deck and rain. Picked up 1.49" with LOTS of T&L between 10 pm and 1 am. Sitting at 5.28" for the month.

Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts? Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

Punting from September to October. There were signs that September was going to turn wet but over the course of this week the modeling for it completely collapsed.

Looks like a general 1.75-2.25 inches of rain IMBY last night based on the NWS data.

Wouldn't shock me if ensuing administration applies referendums, if not immediately repeals when and where legislative rules allow, many of the changes that have been making headlines during this ... quirk of history BS that seems like an infinitely long 4 years in an asylum run by inmates

I think the easiest answer is the marine heat wave off japan. +5-8c anoms are going to have an effect there. But once the NH cools, that will get chipped away slowly but surely. Like it did the last couple of years, it may take a few months but we have time

It has been two weeks since our last rain. We could use a soaker.

Oh are we really doing this? Ok, let’s split hairs. In another post, I said Sept-Nov is when we should see effects. So what is “mid-fall”? Fall is SON, Winter is DJF. In the middle of SON is October. Where’s the can kick?

Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.

Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies. Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.

-- Changed Discussion -- 1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week -- End Changed Discussion -- && .DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion -- IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can`t rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway. -- End Changed Discussion --