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Anyone wanna start a thread for the February 2 storm??

Honestly, I hope this system continues trending north and just goes completely away. I want 70 and sunny if it’s not gonna snow.

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

It can’t get any worse.

Webb throwing up the white flag https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’m too afraid to see.

Antone know how the overnight models runs went?

Thats an awfully strong HP, touting 1040mb or even slightly higher. I think all noteworthy models have a handle on how quickly is departs, and the extent of the arctic air. But is the Euro picking up on this transfer correctly? What data was ingested to show such a massive correction north? The Baja low?

Said as well as anyone could say. 0.50 inches of ice messes me up.

To put this into perspective, the ECMWF trend north the last four runs.

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates.

Just got the chance to look at the 0z suite... Wow, there's your north trend and then some. Now that it seems increasingly possible you aim the intense WAA snows over the region, the entire evolution and storm is a bit different. I know the global models are showing a solid 18-24 hour storm, but from experience you usually only get 12-15 hours at most from a WAA thump until you dry slot. If I were to be super picky and extra HECS hunter, that would be what I'm not a fan of. But hey, if the Euro is right and you throw 1.25" QPF into an air mass with surface temps in the upper single digits and lower teens, as well with localized 700 fgen, easily crank out a few hours of 2-3+ in/hr rates. Also, this could be an overreaction from the models with the shift north, we'll just have to see. But I do think if you want a true long duration event, you want to play the balance between getting into the WAA snows and the backside ULL/coastal that develops as the storm departs.

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby

Winter Storm Watches now out for Southern KS and Southern MO.

NAM isn't great. But not terrible. Someone said look north of DFW. Sleet where we want snow. Not the trend the early crew wants.

Will be very interesting to see if a trend evolves through 06z and 12z today.

I’ll be perfectly fine with mixing for an hour at the end after a huge front ender thump. Other than the Super Bowl 2021 event all of our major events that winter mixed at some point. The 2/1/21 storm dumped 15-16” IMBY but a small part of it was sleet/rain.

Im thinking 2 things 1. Poor Mets - SE Mets- is there a need to forecast anything outside 48 hours? 2. Do we need SE winter Mets anymore poor guys should just take a 4-5 month sabbatical every year

It's better than the euro with the HP but thermals are on a razor's edge for upstate and north. I do think overall it looks better than the Euro but I'm on my phone at the moment and at 84 hours it should be taken with a grain of salt.

Doesn't make a lot of sense either. There's never been a large storm in my neck of the woods without some sleet that I can recall. Nothing new or unprecedented...people just stare at too many models every five minutes and convince themselves of a final solution. It's like saying "I want 23 inches not 18 just because." Either amount is crushing. What's the difference at that point?

Anyone got the latest NAM?

I am up to 17.5 for Saturday, 2.2 for Sunday on wunderground, a little more on weather channel app. Glad they pulled trigger helps people prepare

Great trends last night

Still so much time to go with this one, but feels like we are starting to hone in on at least something. By tomorrow 12z I think we can start taking amounts seriously. Should be around 84hrs from go time by that point.