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I think weather AI is going to develop some sort of self selection bias at some point to keep us happy and just start spitting out Day After Tomorrow solutions on each run, in July even.

How is that not warm and fuzzy? snow is snow lol Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Show us the dirty pics

Why are the cooling rates in your chart different? Your own faulty analysis. Comparing the raw data at individual Chester County sites to the Philadelphia Airport shows very good agreement in warming rates; i.e, the Philadelphia airport is warming at the same rate as Chester County. Well known that averaging over a changing network skews the data. If the station network cools with time then warming will be underestimated. That's exactly what is happening in your charts.

Lemme catch you up: there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out. You’re caught up. Now go drink

Well at least we get mood flakes for watching football tomorrow. I would like a few inches to cover the mess that has been left behind that last week (stupid oak leaves that have no idea to fall two months ago, neighbors dog crap, that smooth ice patch on a partially cleared path that will help an orthro surgeon retire)but it looks like I might be asking for too much.

Well...

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

long way away but the globals all seem to like Jan 24-28 for a few chances at a significant snowstorm

End of January is one of the best looks we’ve had since 2017-18. If we don’t score one significant storm out of this everything is broken

This looks like a +PDO winter map, almost like 2014-15.

NCDOT ...why the heck are we brining I40?!?!

only beat ya because i'm working it. Very quick convective hitter, with a snow/pellet mix.

If it's enough to cover the grass then that's a boom scenario in my view.

C'mon man we can't really see what's gonna happen after that, lol

Sipping on a bottle of 2022 cellar-aged Bell's Expedition Stout. Really aged nicely....mellow, balanced, smooth.

Had to drive home during happy hour. What did I miss!? A few cutters and a few congrats Boston bombs? Fuck it. Winter is over. Cancel it. I’m out…getting more beers to help me with my stupid ass thoughts.

While we wait for our T to 2" of snow across most of this forum the guidance continues to impress over the next 1-2 week in terms of cold. Latest EURO is not backing down on the cold surges coming into the Mid-West, Lakes and into the NE and MA. Some bitter cold anomalies against the coldest averages of the year, i.e. peak climo cold. Expect to see some good ice buildup across the Great Lakes before all is said and done. Snowfall during this upcoming cold is very much in question. Think best chance at something substantial would have to wait until we start to pull out of the coldest of the pattern. For a time the cold looks like it wants to overwhelm the pattern causing suppression of storm track to the south. Not much room to get things to turn up the coast IMO.

Euro AI snow mean through 318.

All runs are interesting to me but 0Z and 12Z will have recon’s data as extra input.

When it comes to the Euro ALWAYS assume the bad way

Enough. Can't take the wobbles... give me the standard C-2 and be done with it.

Laughable

Tonight's runs could be interesting after all