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I also read that wrong parts of jersey are in fact in a big wind warning.

Beast

Canaan Valley NWR

Hudson County is still Upton, unfortunately.

That's mount Holy they done good as well as box

Incredible to see all of these at the same time..

Until further notice, Lucy has the football; however, I'm curious how that second week in October is going to pan out. More jet buckles please.

Odalys is now a Cat 4!

Marinas are nightmare right now. Shark River is not going to fair well.

My daughter works for FEMA and texted me this morning concerned that the similarity of Nolo and Polo is adding confusion and could affect messaging. She asked me if I, a degreed meteorologist, knew why they chose such similar and "silly" names. Of course, I have no idea. Does anyone know?

Some pokes of sun here , mostly sunny just west / north

The tide is already high. I drove past the Belt Parkway this morning and the waves were crashing against the rocks and onto the walkway.

I remember distinctly with Sandy it was a dry storm on LI and drought conditions leading into it. That really helped mitigate the wind and power outage impacts. This is obviously a much weaker storm but the convective nature of it should help to maximize the rainfall (fresh water flooding) and wind threat along the coast.

nice of joe's football team to come through for us haters

It's here!!! 48 in Cherryville this morning and there was much rejoicing!

I'd also watch for models overall to perhaps miss some of the very early rain potential (which could have implications on overall flooding risk too). Wouldn't be shocked to see some rain and rain bands get in much earlier than indicated and the rainfall rates would be quite heavy. Maybe progressive movement limits totals but something to watch

Yeah man...that was awful last night . Falcons did that to us last year but we didn't have a 55 million dollar QB. TB worries me...remember Baker said he knew the calls last time. Anyway...it's better to be 2-0 than not

Congratulations woodyard too.

I figured it’d be below 0 there.

Really liked the overnight runs. Looks like might be able to sneak it in. Plus need to get in a crappy weather round ahead of the Mid-Am at Mt. Washington 1st week of October.

Now to be replaced by the Packers sucking. ‘Tis a beautiful thing.

The REFS (RRFS ensemble) probability of wind gusts exceeding High Wind Warning criteria e.g. 58 mph for Sat into early Sun morning remains unnervingly high for the South Shore of LI as well as Eastern Suffolk. Additionally, on this run, the probabilities over 25% have edged into southern portions of NYC like southern SI and far southern Brooklyn and Queens. Still unclear to me why NWS Upton is holding back on a high wind warning for the above-mentioned areas, especially eastern Suffolk where the model consensus is strongest. Note the REFS has shifted NW with the position of the low pressure and the 850 mb low center at 48 hours, if you compare to the 60 hour forecast from the previous post.

Thanks! What’s the link for that?