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Love talking Stein! Drought !!

It will be rainy tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s despite partly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.224 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Next week there’s 2-3 days of low -mid 70’s at least. One day has 75+ potential

Snow showers this evening. Chilly day.

He’s got an itchy trigger finger . I think he senses the dry summer coming https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2049636199933858274?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Hard to believe my area has only been 'abnormally dry'. With the update tomorrow I expect to be in moderate drought category.

73 at CEF today. Could be the last 70+ here for a bit from what i read in these spaces

Yeah looks like a nothing burger again. Maybe a tenth, which is what I expected.

Can’t wait until the diurnal range is from 95 to 80.

How much snow pack you have left? Mine finally gave about 2 weeks ago

71F off low of 38F. Diurnal ranges been slowly closing up but I think my favorite weather is 30s to 70s… though 40s to 80s probably does top it.

I got ~0.15” this morning.

That sounds logical, but it’s not how the real Earth behaves. A true global average does have a seasonal cycle, and it’s not a sampling problem—it’s physics. The key issue is that the hemispheres aren’t equal. The Northern Hemisphere has a lot more land, and land heats and cools much faster than oceans. The Southern Hemisphere is mostly ocean, which responds slowly and dampens temperature swings. So when the Northern Hemisphere warms in summer, it pushes the global average up more strongly than the Southern Hemisphere can offset during its winter. The result is a real, global annual oscillation. If both hemispheres were identical (same land/ocean mix, same heat capacity), then yes—your cancellation idea would work. But they’re not, so it doesn’t. Also, every independent global dataset—NASA GISS, NOAA, HadCRUT—shows the same seasonal wiggle. That wouldn’t happen if it were just “Iowa with a fancy name.” So the graph is doing two things at once: The up-and-down is the seasonal cycle (dominated by Northern Hemisphere land) The overall rise is the long-term warming trend Seeing both together is exactly what you’d expect from a properly constructed global temperature record.

Around 0.35” so far. Should be able to hit 0.5” with the second batch?

May (May be) DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 -2.5 -0.5 -0.5 +1.8 +2.4 +3.0

Too much NW flow. Going to be cold and dry.

That elevated storm had a very high reflectivity seen by KFWS, and 2.5" hail in town. Now, just two warnings in Texas.

It's been nice slightly inland. Feels bad for the immediate coast but that is per usual

.23 of rain so far in Marysville as of 7:30. Steady rain continues. Heavy band looks to be developing out near Huntington & Franklin county.

This is underwhelming on the Eastern Shore. 0.00" with showers falling apart.

77 at 6:23pm, warmer than expected. Wunderground still showing 99% chance of rain tonight.

As the Kelvin Wave has continued to progress east, TAO/Triton has +4-5c anomalies now under Nino 1+2. Should be interesting to see if it surfaces in the east, along the American coast in the next few weeks. Still to be determined whether it's an east-based, west-based, or basin-wide event. I'm going toward basin-wide.

35 with light snow for about the past hour. A chilly next few days up this way which I completely expected after a fairly mild April.

I totally get it man. Not trying to rub salt in a wound. This particular spring you all have really gotten shafted. From that week of 85-90 inland while you all doored . And these last 3 days of 67-72. And there’s been a few others.. and next week has a few days of 70-76 though you may do ok if flow is W. I remember posting in winter that the cold SST’s were going to ruin spring along the coast. Whenever that happens , the coast really suffers deep into spring

I'll give you April, which typically does suck here. March sucks everywhere when its not snowing. And by May dews and baseline temps start to creep up here regardless.