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the location of the HP in Canada is what will decide the track of the LP - the HP is a few hundred miles north northeast of the GFS and Canadian location - makes a difference

Ukie is way east. But it probably can be discarded as it’s an outlier

A September nor'easter of this strength here is uncharted waters. That high to the N and the way the low comes up so deep? This would be impressive in mid-winter. Extraordinary patterns often result in extraordinary individual wx events!

I thought so. Definitely some scenic snows in 2015-16. And thats exactly right about the atmosphere. If we have to explain that no two years are the same or follow some linear correlation, then we really are starting at square 1. The funny thing is, 1997-98 was actually unusual in that Feb was the warm month, not December. A bit of an odd duck from strong Ninos. Right off the bat I doubt that happens this year. 1997-98 wasnt even that bad Nov-Jan, then went totally flat in Feb.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/

And @ineedsnow I bet thinks the UKX2 intensity fcst is DA BOMB?!

Because it occludes.

Link to that excellent SST analysis?

I disagree right now because of the 12Z Canadian and the location of the strong HP

Immediate coast yes, but that's not where I am talking about. The low slows stalls over 22-24 C SSTs. Stop using SSTs closest to Weymouth as if that is the world! Your IMBY bias needs to end...

Light but measurable rain for third straight day. Ground is saturated. About .7 since Sunday.

Agree on Euro/EPS/Euro AI leading the way (as they often do on nor easter type storms)

The Canadian at 12Z basically agrees with it - that HP in far southeast near our border in Canada keeps us in the clear

hawaii could be socked again with torrential rains it has not been a good year for the islands..

@CoastalWxwill conclude this..."we blow all our chances way too early in the season! El NIno SUXS"

What a beaut. Third C5 of the season in the basin.

Ah, all good.

The Dvorak color table really gives an ideal of CDO intensity and symmetry!

Was referring to the EURO products when I said EURO, sorry for the confusion.

NHC mentioned last night the depth of the 30-31 C ocean temp was quite deep in this area, but still some slight upwelling would occur for such an intense and slow-moving TC. That could reduce max potential a bit. Just thinking of how low the pressure can get. Only Patricia has EPAC pressure below 900 mb.

Probably wet/misty ground cover reflecting the camera IR in night mode. Sometimes around dusk/dawn my cameras look that way with a dewy ground.

Euro and EPS. AI Euro and its ensembles. GDM and its ensembles. That’s a pretty good consensus but far from a slam dunk at this stage.

It depends on the duration of slow movement. The slowdown / stall is occurring now. But heat content is deep there. Sure, it could limit peak intensity down, somewhat, given enough time. Forward progress is forecast to take the core NW tomorrow. But I really think internal restructuring via an EWRC would impact its peak prior to mixing on Wednesday. The 30-31° isotherm layer is not shallow and some of the deepest on the globe right now due to El Niño. The 26° isotherm is over 150 meters. If any location can support a stall right now, it's there.

I think all the AI’s are south too….

CMC and GFS looks pretty similar. Euro is the only model showing this south of SNE at the moment no?