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Yeah, I'm not sure I completely buy the 12 NAM.

haha. well, if the shoe fits -

Ain’t worried about qpf on the models yet that will bounce around till tomorrow. Let’s get temps good first

^prudent^

National Blend

Love this! This playing out of the models is as old as time.. I didn't buy the Canadian for a second yesterday. The readjustment up until lead time will continue to happen in some sense, as models begin to realize the density of the airmass it will be up against. I personally don't buy the NAM either.

Thank you for helping us with the very complex Math involved with those ratios.

Rgem continues the colder trend

Temperatures across Alberta Province of Canada this morning are running -20 to -40F. Temperatures either side of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba are -20 to -25F. Impressive cold!

National Blend of Models

You got a deal!

Yeah, heights noticeably lower ahead of the trough and the Canadian side of things is “pressing” more than digging behind the s/w thus far on the ICON Problem is the ICON develops a stronger 850 low and that’s where the warm tongue is on that model

It’s the icon so take it fwiw, but for my latitude I didn’t like seeing the northern stream putting more of its energy into advancing that Ontario shortwave along quick versus dumping it into the backside of that trough like previous runs did. There’s more action around James Bay this run too trying to kick pieces along.

people in central virginia who live at 700mb are going to be boiled alive saturday night

For Corey, I think it is a tossup at hitting 15". Your spot might be up and in enough to get the best of both worlds... decent ratios, but some ocean enhancement depending on winds. But it will be tough for some to pull 15" out of this based on moisture. Just my 2 cents

Yeah, but this was originally supposed to start Friday night. The models had a huge snow storm Tuesday. They moved to a huge freezing rain event Wednesday. And today we could be going to some spotty sleet or nothing. So all of this has been within three days of when it was originally supposed to start.

I'm not mad at the slight trends so far today. Still plenty of time for things to go south, and yes, that's got two meanings.

RGEM looks a bit colder but also less QPF overall than 6z. At least through 78.

Okay, so we are going to get more than what the WPC shows. I guess I best get a few things from the store...........

that is just so f-ing beautiful I am just staring at it. connected 1040s up top. man that is just pretty

been a long time coming. Gravity Wave plz nice to see this place still rocks!

This is my worst nightmare. 20” + I’m coming home regardless of anything. Below 15” I’ll deal. 15-20 is Absolute Nightmare territory.

Is the PDO even negative anymore? If so, nowhere near as much as it was a few months ago. We have warm water up against the west coast and while the waters off Japan are warm, they aren't as warm as they have been.

What is the NBM? A revived NGM, lol?