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Some thunder possible tomorrow, not expected to be severe with MUCAPE below 500 J/kg. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

Ukie bumped north

Looks like you all do good with this so that’s great for Holiday time. My grand children are old enough to sled finally and Santa delivered, You all have fun with yours!

Hrdps

Knyc: 2.4” ewr: 4.2 lga: 3.1 hpn: 4.8 somewhere in the oc hinderlands: 10.7”

Hey I’m in NYC for this one

That 1033 high is now right on the nipple of Hudson/James Bay.

28. Should be one of those overcast days in the 20s where it smells like snow

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The RRFS has snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour tomorrow night (assuming 10:1). The heavy snow only lasts an hour or two on the model, but it would be fun. Other models have a burst of heavy snow as well though mostly 1-2" per hour max.

Clear skies, light winds. Just decoupled and dove to 33/19.

Down to 30 here in Brooklyn NY Expecting 4 -8 inches for NYC. This will be very interesting how the banding will set up.

I mentioned 2/8/94 earlier for a different reason but this storm may resemble it in one way in that 80% of the accumulation may occur in the first 4 hours where some places might see 2 inch per hour rates at points. After 9-10pm it could be very light spotty type stuff with even a chance of some mixing in areas that largely stayed N of the mix line during the peak of the event.

25 here.

GEFS juiced and north

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall.

This will be fun to track tomorrow. The atmospheric lottery storms are the best!

Some of the Mesos show a sharp edge wrt the dry air intrusion. Get on the snowy side of that and maybe some good ratios.

Some stations have moved the 1-3 over EMA. Big improvement over the coating forecast this morning.

Additionally, from a meteorological perspective this storm looks like it should be fun for the areas that remain snow for the thump. We have an extremely strong area of FGEN lift which should make for a good amount of lift. Only downside is the DGZ is not super large so may be a ton of flakes but not great rates.

Hi y’all I’m a frequent poster in the mid-atl sub forum but due to circumstance I’ll be in NYC (upper east side manhattan) for this storm tomorrow! Excited to see nyc in the snow and practice photography with it.

I’ll just leave this Merry Christmas wish here. https://x.com/_jwall/status/2004299830592679942?s=46

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

i'd be very careful with that N/NE edge. it's been said (virga) but much of that may never reach the ground

Canadian looks about the same? Been stubbornly south for a few runs. Was hoping for a better move