SnowGoose69

same city that got like 12 inches of snow two winters ago

Pensacola 92mph METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141

there are crazy short flights. ATL-CSG ATL-CHA. AA runs some short ones from DFW too to places like GGG/LAW

Tornado risk could be significant, especially if it landfalls PNS east but overall the impacts on winds should be more in line with Michael in your area vs Irma/Zeta. I don't see 40-50-60 mph winds at the moment based on the size of the system and the likely track, you'd need it to come in markedly more east than even the east edge of the cone. The direction of the winds though being S-SE is risky however as those are infrequent directions with high speeds over GA. WNW-ENE are more common. One of the few areas JB makes good points is tree roots being used to winds from various directions. When they are, not severe damage can happen even at speeds of 45-50 equivalent to what you might see at 60-70 mph, especially if the ground is saturated.

I still am reluctant to trust AI models too heavily. We saw them botch the NE blizzard last winter and also with tropicals it seems til the system reaches peak intensity or near it their tracks undergo more drastic shifts than non AI models.

Yeah always is the case. I think it could come in as far east as maybe Destin but don’t think it’s going much east of that

I’m wondering if 2020’s year of fiasco is the reason this name isn’t retired lol. I was sure Isiaisis was retired after the damage it did in the NE in 2020 but usually the state governments or FEMA departments need to issue requests for retirement and probably due to everything else going on they never did so

AI's seem too fast with track

Obviously early RI would probably make this stronger at landfall too as if it becomes a Cat 3 extremely rapidly over the next 60 hours that would allow it to do the whole "making its whole environment around it" thing

I think we've come a long way the last 2 winters since 23-24 where it seems like the odds we get any 23-24 or December 2015 type thing with this El Nino are going down quite a bit. I really don't think we will be seeing any La Nina looks with this Nino. I think Dec will much more resemble 72/82/97 here than it will 2015, that was just a rare example of where the MJO somehow totally overwhelmed a strong ENSO signal and 23-24 again looked like 18-19 or 19-20, whichever one was the Nino where the atmosphere never coupled. There are some weather bets on some of the rogue sites for cities like ATL/BHM/BNA having zero 70 degree days from 12/1-1/31 this year, that has not happened for any of the 3 since the winter of 13-14, may happen this year I think.

I guess the ECAIFS to a degree has that idea too but its evolution of the far west drift is quite a bit later on and would make sense.

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM. Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational

The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.

I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year

Both the 18Z HRRR/RRFS expect massive convection over the area by 2030-2130Z. That seems unlikely. I do think areas south though in NJ may see extensive storms later