SnowGoose69

I mentioned 2/8/94 earlier for a different reason but this storm may resemble it in one way in that 80% of the accumulation may occur in the first 4 hours where some places might see 2 inch per hour rates at points. After 9-10pm it could be very light spotty type stuff with even a chance of some mixing in areas that largely stayed N of the mix line during the peak of the event.

2/7/94 was insanely mild down in the TN Valley/SE. ATL I believe hit 80 that day...might be closest match but February is a different story than Dec. Its way easier for those places to get that warm in early February than late Dec

I still think NYC ends up with a solid period of sleet with this. We're seeing the typical correction back south now we often see at this range but then inside the final 18-24 ticks back to the N tend to occur once again and sometimes verification still ends up even further N by 15-20 miles on what your game time start guidance has. There will likely be 2 big time areas who get smashed here. One will be the typical just NE of the changeover which might run from like CNTRL LI NW up through Fairfield Co and roughly SWF/POU. The 2nd will be a frontogenesis/dry air subsidence induced area somewhere in ERN CT probably up into SRN-CNTRL MASS. Overall the good news is the 3K does not agree with the 12K but given where the RGEM has been consistently and the 3K at 18Z I like a 30 or so mile shift to the NE on this roughly. I am in Flagstaff so I'll be missing the whole thing.

EPS/GEPS at 00Z long range were close, GEFS not much but at 06Z GEFS was closer to those 2. Seems main difference is GEFS though stronger on the negative side on the AO/NAO is more + on the EPO and - on the PNA than the EPS/GEPS. But if we go with history as GA has posted a few times, odds favor the +PNA in January in these similar winters.

Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this

Comes in as the 6th closest match. Closest according to CIPS is 12/14/95, overall this setup has more of the NW-SE dive though, 1995 the low tracked well north so the results of that to me are not a good match. 12/19/79 looks like by far the closest match on track but this system is more juiced and more broad. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1979/us1219.php

It also went insanely north with yesterday's event at about 48-60 hours out too. Given nothing else at 00Z did that I'd not really change any ideas yet. The RRFS/RGEM at this range have recently tended to have slight suppression/amped biases respectively so something near what the GFS shows is what I'd go with now

Up here I could see it, down there a 40 mile shift they'd be mainly sleet or freezing rain

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

2/8/94 did that down here. Overrunning events tend to do that, it often comes right at the beginning where it goes gangbusters or somewhere mid-end while the in between periods are light.

ATL seems to have missed 79 but I would imagine they beat it easily either tomorrow or on the 27th more likely based on temps aloft. 84-85 is reachable on the 27th I think

GFS will always underdo mid-level warmth though in that scenario the flow aloft at the warmest level is like from 280, not as bad as it being from 230 but probably still verbatim underdone a bit. Its why I said before you'll see ratios near 10:1 eventually, even if its 25F at the surface if you're -1C at 750 or 800

There's been many. 97-98 and 01-02 never had one for the 5 boroughs but may have had them NW but there's been quite a few winters with none. Obviously forecasts 30-40 years ago were so poor we had many storms with WSWs issue that today never would have been out.

We have had more legit threats overall though than we did in that stretch. In hindsight 3/14/99 and 1/25/00 both should have had WSWs out but model hiccups and some gaffs by the NWS led to neither being forewarned.

I think there was one since December 2020 I just don’t remember when. March 96 to December 29 2000 without one though still remains the most insane thing ever.