SnowGoose69

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern. When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east. We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast. Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13. Look at 162 hours today its not even close. There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong

Its just really a bunch of clippers

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period. I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last I heard the NAM may run for another year or so. Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events. The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels. The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow