SnowGoose69

Many notable events here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

Many notable events here.....more for the SE overall https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

The UK/Euro it seemed for most of the 2018-2025 period would often go opposite directions of each other alot in the D4-7 range, but this winter there has been more a tendency for them to generally follow one another for sure

I would be surprised if ATL saw accumulating snow with this. The whole ridge/trof orientation to me does not favor it, you'd need this to drop south back across AL/WRN GA and bomb or begin the intensification process at 500 over SE GA or FL panhandle vs over SC or off the SC coast.

This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though. I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.

The UKMET does not even look anything like the other models (minus the ICON) over GA/SC. That alone makes me want to toss it. I do think that the GFS/Euro/RGEM may be tossing way too much snow back too far west in GA/SC but the overall agreement there tells me ignore the UKMET further down the line

The UKMET does not even resemble the GFS/CMC/Euro over GA/SC really. Given thats only 84 or so hours out I'd tend to say toss it, the differences there to me are just pretty significant that it being the outlier in the deep south tells me its future ideas are off as well. I still would think the GEFS/GFS is probably too far west at this stage.

Early on I thought the CMC was coming way west

The 18Z EC/AI were like 12/27/04 level misses. 75-100 miles and you go from nothing or a minor event to a monster.

The RGEM has been pretty money this winter at 84, generally too amped overall as has always been the case but I'd usually take it 9 out of 10 over the NAM at 84.

GFS tends to be stubborn most of the time, in this case since the solution is wonky it might waffle but ordinarily whatever it shows around 96-120 it holds til like 36-48 when it caves.

Generally no, but in cases like this where the setup is semi complicated with a ton going on we've seen it happen.

2/1999 was one I thought of too though I think that missed the Carolinas, that backed in from well out over the ocean

This is highly likely to just close off way too early but I would not rule out the chance of a modest snowfall here potentially, I just doubt we are likely to see a monster storm in this area

For the past few years the UKMET/Euro have often tended to go reverse directions at this range, but this winter so far they've tended to follow each other.