SnowGoose69

NYC ASOS getting 46kts is impressive with all the trees around it, likely means it was 10 knots or more higher

LaGuardia 56 knots

EWR/TEB both gusted over 50

There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely.

There is likely going to be an area near NYC or just south which gets impacted the hardest as the front approaches and enhances the inbound TSTM area from the W-SW. The HREF has been showing this

HRRR continues to be pretty wimpy most runs, the RRFS has consistently shown a stronger signal and the FV3 GFS and NAM do too

The NAM begging for its retirement on 8/31 to be moved up with its forecast for TSTMs across the NE tomorrow afternoon

97 was not bad, but that was probably because relative to 96 it had way more 90 degree days, but it was at least normal. Most of the El Nino summers though were not mild. 2002/2009/2015 I don't believe were either.

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino. 23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

The 18Z HRRR now looks like the Euro after 21Z tomorrow. Probably no accumulation but it'll be snowing a day after it was 80

NYC is 79 now but the winds are starting to go more south now.

There is currently a 33 degree difference between Jones Beach and most of Nassau County north of the LIE

80 would be earliest 80 for NYC ever but I think they won't quite get there

Many places in N Queens/Nassau are reporting 32, had friends check though and they told me they are not seeing any freezing on the trees or any surfaces

The RGEM was headed that way too it seemed.