SnowGoose69

Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there. I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06

We’ll see what ends up happening in the end but DT’s post about the NWS soundings a few days back could have something to do with it because we’ve seen issues all winter

The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro

The AI EURO has been a bit more waffly the last 3-4 events beyond like 60 hours. I felt through February it never moved once on anything inside like 108. The systems this month its definitely bit more bouncy

I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts. I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point.

The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago.

This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.

To be fair it is due for a win. Its been 3 winters I think since it has had a big score. It did well for awhile there pre most recent Euro and CMC upgrade but since those 2 got upgraded 2-3 years back and its not made a hit.

I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier

This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.

the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.

Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too

That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly. I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO. 12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation. The ridge was taller

I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then

I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going. I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs.