SnowGoose69

You don’t usually see widespread “clear air busts” anymore these days. These types of cases where a small sector of the impact region gets screwed is more common vs the entire storm taking a track 100 miles off at the last second

Oddly enough snow growth based on ASOS reports relative to radar echoes and ground reports seems good. You would not think thats the case given the area went over to sleet for a time though.

That area might actually hit LI. I still think places as far west as the Nassau/Suffolk border could do well but I'd think it'll swing too far E for NYC and you have to expect given its coming from the NNW some degree of downslope will happen

The sleet changeover did not even matter much as it stands now. The 5 boroughs would have had maybe 1-1.5 so far had that not happened. The QPF bust is really the issue. We'd have seen 5 plus easily in and near the city even with that brief surge of the sleet

I got a report of 2.4 from someone in Central Park about 15 minutes ago. I don't think that is correct, would think something more near like 1.5 is realistic right now

They'd actually get over 4 easily probably if the back edge of this was not so quickly approaching. Its mostly all snow there now once again

Ratios are not as good either as I thought they'd be. POU has had .38 liquid, friend lives about 2 mi from the airport he has had only 4.9 so far, similar readings on LI it seems where its about 10 or 11:1. I felt maybe 15 was possible especially up in the LHV

Long Island is probably still fine. Not sure about Queens Brooklyn Bronx or NYC though unless that line stops like the 12/3Km NAM showed

Given the radar over NYC and NE NJ I’m surprised most stations aren’t reporting anything

There were some runs of the RGEM and NAM that suggested those areas and even into middlesex could mix for the first two hours before heavier rates pushed the line back south and west

I feel its always too dry with the exception of deep lows. Its not always a huge error but .25-.30 too low can be 4-5 inches if you have a 15:1 event.

I think NYC finally gets 4, whether its 4.1 or 7.2 I don't know but I'd lean closer to the 4 for sure right now though.

The Euro has been low on QPF in most significant storms so far to impact the Midwest/Lakes/NE this last 2 months so I am not surprised to see it doing the same again.

It won't even be that, it'll be 4 hours from like 7-11pm. I think after that its just snizzle/pellets/frz drizzle, even in SW CT and the LHV where they may get 7-10 inches that'll happen. Its rare to see big overrunning type events be snow all the way through, even in areas which get hit hard

The GEFS/EPS still strongly disagree on virtually every indice. GEFS likes more of a -AO/NAO/WPO/PNA whereas the EPS is way less negative on the AO/NAO and same story on the WPO/PNA