SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.
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I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
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Both the 18Z HRRR/RRFS expect massive convection over the area by 2030-2130Z. That seems unlikely. I do think areas south though in NJ may see extensive storms later
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We'll see if anything happens. I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain
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Low confidence really, I think outside of far west areas if the warm front from 1-5pm does not generate anything we may see nothing but a weak line of showers after 8pm.
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Unsure how much TS we see, not impressed with the instability and the front is still back north...so far the few cells that went off made the mid 20s on tops but collapsed
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Yeah the HREF was onto that idea for sure showing very little TSTM risk east of about the mid point of NJ
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Yeah the HREF probs for TS here are not that high 22-01z...especially once east of W NJ
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Looks like 23-01z. Some models suggest activity tomorrow well north of the mid-Atlantic activity, likely keying in on a boundary or subtle shortwave but I'm thinking tomorrow is dry
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December 2015 somehow had it but that was a product of a wild raging MJO through 3-4-5 if I recall right, December El Ninos do tend to be warm but its rarely due to an SER
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I think a bigger concern there 8/12 and later on the ensembles is the WNW flow if the ridge sets up that strong over the Plains/Midwest. That is going to send big time smoke into at least New England if any fires are still burning.
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The area consolidating now over W NJ and E PA near ABE is what most likely could hit NYC but even that might pass north of them...would need to see more activity fill in down towards PHL
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Isolated cells now E of the main area might hit the NYC area or W parts of Queens/Brooklyn
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I think relative to what models showed yesterday this is more W-NW overall. I think this initial around stays mostly Newark west now, its the activity post 22Z that may be more of a factor to the east.
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Those areas more south will likely be hit later because of the surface low that forms. You can see on the 3km NAM and HRRR that when that low forms in S PA later the precip explodes in those areas.
