SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N. Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp. There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them
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Yeah looks late month to me. Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February. I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.
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To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south. Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west. Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php
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NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this
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Minus the EPS the 2/9-2/13 period has seen some tempering of the ridge over the Lakes/TN Valley area. Beyond 2/16 its hard to know yet, some signs of a EPO ridge trying to poke back into AK on some of the ensembles again but the NAO looks gone, then again we've seen that attempt a few times too and its been wrong.
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Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder. Then it comes down to what happens with the indices. If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done. If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable. Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms. I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide. One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain. Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.
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Unlikely with 850s of only -22. It usually needs to be -27 or lower. You can do it with much lower 850s but you need winds to be like 360-020 and probably have a snowpack
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Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup
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06z Euro was reasonably near the idea. This one may have a chance. RGEM though which has been really good recently has nothing, RRFS is a relative blizzard lol. Its becoming clear the RRFS is more NAM bad post 48 than it is RGEM good post 48. Inside 24 though I will say the RRFS is very useful and has been pretty good. Its just to me worse than the NAM in the 30-60 window.
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I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch. I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future. It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE. Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that. Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods
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NW flow setups like that only work in areas from ATL on south if the upper level feature organizes much earlier across the TN Valley. This one developed too late and was too far north. The March 1980 storm was similar but the upper level low and trof developed much earlier and tracked more south.
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Fort Lauderdale easily should have their coldest February day tomorrow, previous coldest was 55 in 1970. MIA/PBI records go back longer so some days in the 40s in 1917/1900/1895 but both will have their coldest February day since then. MLB is reporting -SN now but I think thats erroneous
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ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988. I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s
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January 30th- Feb 1st ULL and coastal storm obs
SnowGoose69 replied to JoshM's topic in Southeastern States
Jacksonville airport in FL Reporting snow...not sure if that is first time since 89 or not. They may have reported it in 2010 and 2018. -
Most developing El Nino summers are cool in the East. I'd expect if we see the expected transition to at least a weak-moderate El Nino this summer would be below normal
