SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026
SnowGoose69 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
I guess the ECAIFS to a degree has that idea too but its evolution of the far west drift is quite a bit later on and would make sense. -
Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026
SnowGoose69 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM. Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational -
The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.
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I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
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Both the 18Z HRRR/RRFS expect massive convection over the area by 2030-2130Z. That seems unlikely. I do think areas south though in NJ may see extensive storms later
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We'll see if anything happens. I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain
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Low confidence really, I think outside of far west areas if the warm front from 1-5pm does not generate anything we may see nothing but a weak line of showers after 8pm.
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Unsure how much TS we see, not impressed with the instability and the front is still back north...so far the few cells that went off made the mid 20s on tops but collapsed
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Yeah the HREF was onto that idea for sure showing very little TSTM risk east of about the mid point of NJ
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Yeah the HREF probs for TS here are not that high 22-01z...especially once east of W NJ
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Looks like 23-01z. Some models suggest activity tomorrow well north of the mid-Atlantic activity, likely keying in on a boundary or subtle shortwave but I'm thinking tomorrow is dry
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December 2015 somehow had it but that was a product of a wild raging MJO through 3-4-5 if I recall right, December El Ninos do tend to be warm but its rarely due to an SER
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I think a bigger concern there 8/12 and later on the ensembles is the WNW flow if the ridge sets up that strong over the Plains/Midwest. That is going to send big time smoke into at least New England if any fires are still burning.
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The area consolidating now over W NJ and E PA near ABE is what most likely could hit NYC but even that might pass north of them...would need to see more activity fill in down towards PHL
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Isolated cells now E of the main area might hit the NYC area or W parts of Queens/Brooklyn
