csnavywx

The same people who top-called Antarctica 8 years ago are now pivoting to top calling the Arctic now. I look forward to your weenie tag tears. Keep short selling that temp graph and keep getting your face ripped off.

Looked to me on IR like it got above the tropopause briefly. Total emission just not enough to move the dial very much though. Ironically the bigger movers lately (besides HT WV injection) have been big pyroCB events. The '19/'20 Aus fires esp but the summer Canadian fires last year were no slouch either.

Yeah, don't think I'd put too much stock in a full on torch here yet. I was totally ready for one last winter with a strong/super EP Nino dominating. With the STJ weakened under a strong Nina, the real player will be the AO/NAO and a strong N-S gradient. It's just a question of where that gradient wants to set up.

About 0.5Tg of SO2 so far. Not enough to be important to climate on its own. About 2-3% of Pinatubo's numbers.

https://twitter.com/airesEO/status/1780839755011518889/video/1

Weird that they classify those two periods as triple dips. 73-76 looks like a bog standard double dip to me (with a cold neutral phase in between). Does 98-01 qualify either? The 3rd "event" is just two < -0.5 trimonthlies. Pretty sure you need three here to officially qualify but I could be misremembering. 1908-11 or 1890s looks like the last time we had one.

Yes, thank you. Corrected it.

The sun was 0.6-0.7% dimmer 65 million years ago. You don't need as much CO2 for a given temperature this time around. Antarctica glaciated around 650ppm, but my guess is that due to solar luminosity increases, you'd only need around 550-600 to deglaciate it this time around. Humans do not appreciate just how late in the game we showed up and how lucky we are for CO2 to be as (relatively) low as it is now. Another 200-300m years and this planet is going to be a permanent hothouse. Edit: To correct "brighter" to "dimmer" as intended.

Sweet. Best of luck to ya and send us pics, man!

I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed.

Honestly, I'm afraid it's largely going to be a shitshow. There will be a few places that don't have any problems, but this is par for the course for April climo. The best one was always probably going to be Aug '17, though. The areas that *look* like the best (near STL/Carbondale) probably won't be because of thicker jet cirrus moving in at the last minute (that isn't being well forecast) and the little room you get to maneuver in IN/OH inside the dry slot will be crowded as fuck because everywhere else isn't great. Get too far east in OH and you're dealing with stratocu. Try to avoid it altogether and head to ME and you're running into a massive fresh (but melting) snowpack and less than stellar road network, and crowded too as most of the cities down south empty out to head there.

Cold core spring upper lows are the best. Need very little lift and instability to get them to work their magic and they usually produce strong winds and small hail with ease.

Reinforcing this conversation wrt Ortiz-Bobea et. al with this new paper, which attempts to quantify CC's effect on food inflation. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x#:~:text=Evaluating these results under temperature,amplify by 30-50%. TLDR, it's a lot. Enough that we should expect to see what's happening to cocoa in more commodities (sharp squeezes and dumps that don't quite correct back to the original level over the longer run). Inflation volatility also increases. Does not bode well for either food or fixed incomes that rely on government bonds. A persistent 50-150bp of headline inflation will cause a significant devaluation across the board and also hamper any equity price runs via bond volatility spikes.

Freezing levels are so low, it doesn't take much convective depth in this case to get lightning and small hail, given where the cloud bases are.

Feelin pretttttty good about this one from yesterday: