Jump to content

Posted Image


Photo

March 2012- Driest On Record for Central Park?


  • Please log in to reply
39 replies to this topic

#1
stormwarn

  • Weather Watcher

  • 53 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?



PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46



#2
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?



PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46


Will be close. Models only have .10"-.20" of total precip through March 31st.

#3
Alpha5

  • Forum Alpha Male

  • 3,692 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Nice break from the wet streak we've been on

#4
TheTrials

  • 18,870 posts
  • Joined November 24, 2010

Big drought incoming through October.

#5
NYCSuburbs

  • 1,228 posts
  • Joined November 20, 2010

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?



PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46

If not first, it could easily be second as long as the Saturday storm stays weak and/or is delayed. a drought could easily develop later on in the spring if the pattern stays this way with very few decent rain events, similar to what happened in the summer of 2010. The entire area and half of the region is already covered by D0 (abnormally dry) conditions on the drought monitor, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next update (which I think is tomorrow) increases that area and the D1 drought area as well, which is currently limited to SE New England.

#6
Weathergun

  • 2,695 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

We also could see some showers and maybe even with t-storm with cold front on Wednesday. Especially, if there is more instability. Forcing look good.

Even with that, March still has decent chance of being driest, for Central Park.

#7
nycsnow

  • 2,827 posts
  • Joined January 21, 2011

Fire weather watch for tomorrow http://forecast.weat...e Weather Watch

#8
uncle W

  • 4,395 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

March precipitation since 1870...
10yr ave.......precipitation...snowfall...
1870's....................4.13"..........4.2"
1880's....................3.32"..........5.9"
1890's....................3.60"..........8.2"
1900's....................3.92"..........5.2"
1910's....................4.03"..........7.9"
1920's....................3.45"..........2.8"
1930's....................4.13"..........3.0"
1940's....................3.63"..........5.2"
1950's....................4.21"..........6.2"
1960's....................3.43"..........6.1"
1970's....................4.27"..........2.3"
1980's....................4.95"..........3.0"
1990's....................4.52"..........5.7"
2000's....................3.90"..........3.5"
2010's....................5.82"..........0.3".....as of 3/26/2012
after this March NYC will be still averaging well above the average for the 2010's...

#9
doncat

  • 742 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

0.78 here this month... my 32 year record low for March is 1.09 in 2006.

#10
uncle W

  • 4,395 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 21st driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?...
Top 20 driest months...
0.02" June 1949
0.14" October 1963
0.18" August 1995
0.21" September 1884
0.24" August 1964
0.25" January 1955
0.28" October 1924
0.29" September 1914
0.30" May 1903
0.34" May 1887
0.34" November 1976
0.41" September 1885
0.43" October 1879
0.44" July 1999
0.46" February 1895
0.48" September 2005
0.49" July 1910
0.51" July 1955
0.54" August 1916
0.55" February 1901
0.57" March 2012 as of 3/26

#11
stormwarn

  • Weather Watcher

  • 53 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 20th driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?...


I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.

#12
Orographic Lift

  • 953 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

It's just about the driest I've ever seen it around here. So dry that the wind was whipping around a lot of dust in some of the open fields in the area.

#13
uncle W

  • 4,395 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.

the models did a good job...0.01" fell today in the park...0.58" now for the month...

#14
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.


Too early to see. The 0z NAM gives NYC close to .50" of rain.

#15
uncle W

  • 4,395 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record...The average temperature after today will be around 51.7...Tomorrow and Saturday could be cold enough to drop the average near 51.2...Just higher than the record 51.1 set in 1945...So there is an outside chance this cool damp spell to close out the month could prevent March 2012 from being the driest and warmest on record...TWT...

#16
Weathergun

  • 2,695 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

If the 9z SREF is correct, we'll see at least .25", before Sunday. These flat. overrunning events, at this of year, usually produce .25"-.75" precip.

Attached File  9zSREFf66.gif   87.88KB   0 downloads

#17
stormwarn

  • Weather Watcher

  • 53 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record


Correct...and of course it waits until the final day of the month to rain!

#18
nycsnow

  • 2,827 posts
  • Joined January 21, 2011

It may not even rain could bust

#19
Plfdwxdude

  • 5,516 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Both the GFS and NAM give us at least .5" so I doubt we end up with nothing

It may not even rain could bust



#20
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.

#21
nycsnow

  • 2,827 posts
  • Joined January 21, 2011

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.

That sucks

#22
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.


And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip.

#23
Brian5671

  • 7,863 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip.

And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south...

#24
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south...


Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

#25
NorEaster27

  • 3,001 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

I would take under 0.50 for KNYC

#26
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I would take under 0.50 for KNYC


I think it willl be close to .50". Probably around .35".

#27
Brian5671

  • 7,863 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

any other model as an outlier I would discount, but not the Euro

#28
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills.

#29
Brian5671

  • 7,863 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills.

maps?

#30
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Euro is still extremely dry when compared to the entire model suite of 0z/6z:

For NYC:

Euro: .10"
GFS: .30"
NAM: 1.00"
GGEM: .30"
UKIE: .40"
JMA: .30"
SREF: .60"

#31
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC.

#32
ag3

  • 21,160 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Latest NAM is a little south of the srefs:

Gives NYC .50" of precip and most of CT .25"-.35" of precip:

Posted Image

#33
Brian5671

  • 7,863 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

Thanks for posting, AG....what's the start and end time for the precip?

#34
Plfdwxdude

  • 5,516 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

So the GFS still gives us around .4" tomorrow but then another batch moves in late Sunday and Sunday night with another .1

#35
famartin

  • 10,860 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010

"here comes your water!"



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users