39 replies to this topic

[stormwarn]

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46

[ag3]

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46

Will be close. Models only have .10"-.20" of total precip through March 31st.

[Alpha5]

Nice break from the wet streak we've been on

[TheTrials]

Big drought incoming through October.

[NYCSuburbs]

Can Central Park break the record for the driest March?

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05

March

Wettest Driest
2010 10.69 2006 0.80
1983 10.54 1885 0.90
1980 10.41 1966 0.94
1876 8.79 1910 1.02
1953 8.76 1981 1.19
2001 7.71 1915 1.25
1912 7.70 1995 1.26
1977 7.41 1927 1.33
1993 6.64 1894 1.35
1913 6.47 1986 1.46

If not first, it could easily be second as long as the Saturday storm stays weak and/or is delayed. a drought could easily develop later on in the spring if the pattern stays this way with very few decent rain events, similar to what happened in the summer of 2010. The entire area and half of the region is already covered by D0 (abnormally dry) conditions on the drought monitor, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next update (which I think is tomorrow) increases that area and the D1 drought area as well, which is currently limited to SE New England.

[Weathergun]

We also could see some showers and maybe even with t-storm with cold front on Wednesday. Especially, if there is more instability. Forcing look good.

Even with that, March still has decent chance of being driest, for Central Park.

[nycsnow]

Fire weather watch for tomorrow http://forecast.weat...e Weather Watch

[uncle W]

March precipitation since 1870...
10yr ave.......precipitation...snowfall...
1870's....................4.13"..........4.2"
1880's....................3.32"..........5.9"
1890's....................3.60"..........8.2"
1900's....................3.92"..........5.2"
1910's....................4.03"..........7.9"
1920's....................3.45"..........2.8"
1930's....................4.13"..........3.0"
1940's....................3.63"..........5.2"
1950's....................4.21"..........6.2"
1960's....................3.43"..........6.1"
1970's....................4.27"..........2.3"
1980's....................4.95"..........3.0"
1990's....................4.52"..........5.7"
2000's....................3.90"..........3.5"
2010's....................5.82"..........0.3".....as of 3/26/2012
after this March NYC will be still averaging well above the average for the 2010's...

[doncat]

0.78 here this month... my 32 year record low for March is 1.09 in 2006.

[uncle W]

if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 21st driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?...
Top 20 driest months...
0.02" June 1949
0.14" October 1963
0.18" August 1995
0.21" September 1884
0.24" August 1964
0.25" January 1955
0.28" October 1924
0.29" September 1914
0.30" May 1903
0.34" May 1887
0.34" November 1976
0.41" September 1885
0.43" October 1879
0.44" July 1999
0.46" February 1895
0.48" September 2005
0.49" July 1910
0.51" July 1955
0.54" August 1916
0.55" February 1901
0.57" March 2012 as of 3/26

[stormwarn]

if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 20th driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?...

I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.

[Orographic Lift]

It's just about the driest I've ever seen it around here. So dry that the wind was whipping around a lot of dust in some of the open fields in the area.

[uncle W]

I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.

the models did a good job...0.01" fell today in the park...0.58" now for the month...

[ag3]

I don't think we'll see that much rain this week.

Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record.

Too early to see. The 0z NAM gives NYC close to .50" of rain.

[uncle W]

If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record...The average temperature after today will be around 51.7...Tomorrow and Saturday could be cold enough to drop the average near 51.2...Just higher than the record 51.1 set in 1945...So there is an outside chance this cool damp spell to close out the month could prevent March 2012 from being the driest and warmest on record...TWT...

[Weathergun]

If the 9z SREF is correct, we'll see at least .25", before Sunday. These flat. overrunning events, at this of year, usually produce .25"-.75" precip.

 9zSREFf66.gif   87.88K   0 downloads

[stormwarn]

If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record

Correct...and of course it waits until the final day of the month to rain!

[nycsnow]

It may not even rain could bust

[Plfdwxdude]

Both the GFS and NAM give us at least .5" so I doubt we end up with nothing

It may not even rain could bust

[ag3]

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.

[nycsnow]

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.

That sucks

[ag3]

All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1".
This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles.

And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high.

And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip.

[Brian5671]

And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip.

And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south...

[ag3]

And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south...

Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

[NorEaster27]

Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

I would take under 0.50 for KNYC

[ag3]

I would take under 0.50 for KNYC

I think it willl be close to .50". Probably around .35".

[Brian5671]

Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip.

Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip.

any other model as an outlier I would discount, but not the Euro

[ag3]

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills.

[Brian5671]

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills.

maps?

[ag3]

Euro is still extremely dry when compared to the entire model suite of 0z/6z:

For NYC:

Euro: .10"
GFS: .30"
NAM: 1.00"
GGEM: .30"
UKIE: .40"
JMA: .30"
SREF: .60"

[ag3]

New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC.

[ag3]

Latest NAM is a little south of the srefs:

Gives NYC .50" of precip and most of CT .25"-.35" of precip:

[Brian5671]

Thanks for posting, AG....what's the start and end time for the precip?

[Plfdwxdude]

So the GFS still gives us around .4" tomorrow but then another batch moves in late Sunday and Sunday night with another .1

[famartin]

"here comes your water!"