atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18 Z NOGAPS @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 its out to 144 now and is a driving rainstorm Yeah i realize that ..but you do not want to see this model this far to the west...it should be more SE with its low pressure area ...due to its bias...however its not...so chances are this is going to be a very amplified system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah i realize that ..but you do not want to see this model this far to the west...it should be more SE with its low pressure area ...due to its bias...however its not...so chances are this is going to be a very amplified system... I think you really are keying on the nogaps way too much. It's whole setup at H5 could be profoundly different and could result in its altered solution. Nothing on either the EURO or GFS would suggest to me that we need to worry about an inland cutter. Both models also have a much better blocking structure which would prevent such a solution, such as what the NOGAPS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's one signal, but doesn't have much support right now. Well, depends how you look at it i would guess...ECM has already shown a solution just like the NOGAPS.... I am not saying its going to be very far to the west like the NOGAPS is saying but its bias HAS WORKED with every storm this season so far when it has been more N & W ..the storms are more N & W... It is simply something you do not want to see out of this model & using it the way it is meant to be used ..suggests that this storm is going to be very amplified.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you really are keying on the nogaps way too much. It's whole setup at H5 could be profoundly different and could result in its altered solution. Nothing on either the EURO or GFS would suggest to me that we need to worry about an inland cutter. Both models also have a much better blocking structure which would prevent such a solution, such as what the NOGAPS shows. yeah, there isn't anything else, not even a stray ensemble, that does what the nogaps is doing. This whole red flag rule about if the nogaps is west and everything else is east then everything else will come west is way too general and probably nothing more than a broken clock being right twice a day to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah i realize that ..but you do not want to see this model this far to the west...it should be more SE with its low pressure area ...due to its bias...however its not...so chances are this is going to be a very amplified system... The NOGAPS fails to form a 50/50 low from the SE Coast low which ultimately results in its entire solution thereafter going into the toilet.....the NOGAPS has the low off the SE Coast but unlike the other models doesn't deepen it as much as it headed NE and then NNW into the area off Eastern Canada, the end result is nothing to keep the high in place so everything evolves differently back over the U.S. mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah, there isn't anything else, not even a stray ensemble, that does what the nogaps is doing. This whole red flag rule about if the nogaps is west and everything else is east then everything else will come west is way too general and probably nothing more than a broken clock being right twice a day to some extent. Not to mention the NOGAPS amplified/cutter/warmer solution all stems from the fact that it has no blocking upstream to prevent such an outcome. Although the euro once showed such a solution, it now is depicting the setup at H5 completely differently which has altered its outcome appropriately. The Euro and GFS are now depicting a nice east based block which allows the HP to remain present over the NE. If anything I am more worried in this setup that the energy is squashed and the wave is simply flat that progresses from w to e in a fast fashion and delivers some snow to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you really are keying on the nogaps way too much. It's whole setup at H5 could be profoundly different and could result in its altered solution. Nothing on either the EURO or GFS would suggest to me that we need to worry about an inland cutter. Both models also have a much better blocking structure which would prevent such a solution, such as what the NOGAPS shows. I agree with this. While certainly plausible, the GFS , and EURO ensembles are also showing a weaker system attm. Wouldn't base anything off the nogaps. While certainly useful in certain situations, this far out, wouldn't lean too heavily on it's solution. Like people have said before, it's progressive nature is it's own worst enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NOGAPS fails to form a 50/50 low from the SE Coast low which ultimately results in its entire solution thereafter going into the toilet.....the NOGAPS has the low off the SE Coast but unlike the other models doesn't deepen it as much as it headed NE and then NNW into the area off Eastern Canada, the end result is nothing to keep the high in place so everything evolves differently back over the U.S. mainland. DING DING DING!!! We have a winner! Also include tonights storm into the mix, the NOGAPS handles that differently also, and fails to look as good upstream at H5 as other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NOGAPS fails to form a 50/50 low from the SE Coast low which ultimately results in its entire solution thereafter going into the toilet.....the NOGAPS has the low off the SE Coast but unlike the other models doesn't deepen it as much as it headed NE and then NNW into the area off Eastern Canada, the end result is nothing to keep the high in place so everything evolves differently back over the U.S. mainland. Perhaps this could be because there is no 50/50 low as some of the guidance has been suggesting in its runs. Remember the runs that pull the 50/50 low out of the way and allow the high to slide off the coast? Remember this run above? How about last nights HPC preliminary images as well? As you can see there is indeed support for a further west & amplified low. How often have we seen the ECM model suggest a track and a storm to happen to back away from that solution to bring it back to that solution in the closer range? If you are looking for consistency in a model the NOGAPS has been consistent and has not been jumping all around all over the place. One should look at guidance as showing all the different solutions possible....so right now you have anywhere from OTS GFS to along the coast....(ECM) to inland runner NOGAPS... Interestingly enough the NOGAPS has been the only model that was moving tonights system across the PA/MD border... and now you see the NAM/GFS do the same on there 18 Z runs...then across NYC region http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06018.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif Further NW track worked yet again.... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp06030.gif So..I would not say a coastal hugger to slightly inland is off the table by any means.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Perhaps this could be because there is no 50/50 low as some of the guidance has been suggesting in its runs. Remember the runs that pull the 50/50 low out of the way and allow the high to slide off the coast? Remember this run above? How about last nights HPC preliminary images as well? As you can see there is indeed support for a further west & amplified low. How often have we seen the ECM model suggest a track and a storm to happen to back away from that solution to bring it back to that solution in the closer range? If you are looking for consistency in a model the NOGAPS has been consistent and has not been jumping all around all over the place. One should look at guidance as showing all the different solutions possible....so right now you have anywhere from OTS GFS to along the coast....(ECM) to inland runner NOGAPS... Interestingly enough the NOGAPS has been the only model that was moving tonights system across the PA/MD border... and now you see the NAM/GFS do the same on there 18 Z runs...then across NYC region http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06018.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06018.gif Further NW track worked yet again.... http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06030.gif So..I would not say a coastal hugger to slightly inland is off the table by any means.... So what is it? There is a difference between and amplified coastal storm and a coastal hugger/inland event... By implying the NOGAPS is correct with an interior cutting storm, we would have to assume its handling of blocking is correct, and therefore discount the blocking the GFS/EURO seem to be keying more on. We would assume the GFS/EURO are both wrong with their depiction at H5, espcially over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Perhaps this could be because there is no 50/50 low as some of the guidance has been suggesting in its runs. Remember the runs that pull the 50/50 low out of the way and allow the high to slide off the coast? Remember this run above? How about last nights HPC preliminary images as well? As you can see there is indeed support for a further west & amplified low. How often have we seen the ECM model suggest a track and a storm to happen to back away from that solution to bring it back to that solution in the closer range? If you are looking for consistency in a model the NOGAPS has been consistent and has not been jumping all around all over the place. One should look at guidance as showing all the different solutions possible....so right now you have anywhere from OTS GFS to along the coast....(ECM) to inland runner NOGAPS... Interestingly enough the NOGAPS has been the only model that was moving tonights system across the PA/MD border... and now you see the NAM/GFS do the same on there 18 Z runs...then across NYC region http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06018.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06012.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06018.gif Further NW track worked yet again.... http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06030.gif So..I would not say a coastal hugger to slightly inland is off the table by any means.... It seems ever since the NAO has headed back towards neutral or positive, even from when it was starting to head that way from deep negative territory the GEM/UKMET/NOGAPS have been significantly better on the last 2 events, this one coming and the one last week...they were struggling mightily prior to that time...of course as of now the GEM is more like the GFS for next week...to an extent the 50/50 argument validates why the high is out on the NOGAPS but less as to why the NOGAPS is developing a bigger system though there are still impacts which can link back to that from the 50/50 issue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 So what is it? There is a difference between and amplified coastal storm and a coastal hugger/inland event... By implying the NOGAPS is correct with an interior cutting storm, we would have to assume its handling of blocking is correct, and therefore discount the blocking the GFS/EURO seem to be keying more on. We would assume the GFS/EURO are both wrong with their depiction at H5, espcially over Greenland. Not sure why you are implying that I am saying the exact NOGAPS track is what is going to happen..I am saying that a coastal hugger...to slightly inland track is not off the table...And yes you can have an amplified system either on the eastern edge of the coast or hugging the coast & either way you want to slice it or dice it ..it would be considered a coastal.... You seem to be missing the main point of the NOGAPS & my use of it...and that is with its SE bias....it should be SE with the coastal...its not....its further N & W of the rest of the guidance (aka as it was with this latest system and now what the guidance is showing ) .... The fact that its not...suggests that the models that are east are to far east.... Now if the NOGAPS shifts SE ,,then this changes the whole thought process..but you do not want to see this model in the position that it is in if you are along the coast... If i was a betting man & with the way this seasons storms have all been NW..i would say this travels along the coast in the 50 mile or less range... coast would be heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow..Slightly more inland would be heavy snow to sleet/zr and then further inland heavy snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not sure why you are implying that I am saying the exact NOGAPS track is what is going to happen..I am saying that a coastal hugger...to slightly inland track is not off the table...And yes you can have an amplified system either on the eastern edge of the coast or hugging the coast & either way you want to slice it or dice it ..it would be considered a coastal.... You seem to be missing the main point of the NOGAPS & my use of it...and that is with its SE bias....it should be SE with the coastal...its not....its further N & W of the rest of the guidance (aka as it was with this latest system and now what the guidance is showing ) .... The fact that its not...suggests that the models that are east are to far east.... Now if the NOGAPS shifts SE ,,then this changes the whole thought process..but you do not want to see this model in the position that it is in if you are along the coast... If i was a betting man & with the way this seasons storms have all been NW..i would say this travels along the coast in the 50 mile or less range... coast would be heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow..Slightly more inland would be heavy snow to sleet/zr and then further inland heavy snow..... I see what you are saying.. however, the NOGAPS is not ALWAYS S&E. And when all the other models have gone east, it may mean the NOGAPS is wrong with its H5 setup. I agree that you don't WANT to see it west, but I don't think it's THAT concerning this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I see what you are saying.. however, the NOGAPS is not ALWAYS S&E. And when all the other models have gone east, it may mean the NOGAPS is wrong with its H5 setup. I agree that you don't WANT to see it west, but I don't think it's THAT concerning this far out. you do want to see the NOGAPS further west, as it has a south east bias.. if it is showing a low further NW than the other models, it is most likely flagging them and telling them to bring the storm closer to the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you are giving the NOGAPS too much credit. Its not a goto model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you are giving the NOGAPS too much credit. Its not a goto model. hmmm.. doesn't look like the NOGAPS is doing too bad as of lately in the la nina winter if I do say so myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you are giving the NOGAPS too much credit. Its not a goto model. I am simply applying its bias....it should be further to the south east in this scenario with its progressive nature..that is the bias. I have seen pro mets from John (typhoon tip) to snowgoose as well as other adhere this same thing in the past.... If this model is NW of other models it generally flags the guidance that is too far to the east.... This is not something i have made up ...this is something that has been a generally accepted concept.... And again ..I will give a model credit when credit is due... I remember quite well a post from even earthlight not that long ago ...that stated the ECM bowed to the NOGAPS... Its a very valuable tool when used properly.... Time will tell ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hmmm.. doesn't look like the NOGAPS is doing too bad as of lately in the la nina winter if I do say so myself... Which one is the nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Which one is the nogaps? FNMOC - Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, I've been on wx boards since '97 and I don't think I ever recall a thread with so much analysis and detailed explanation of the NOGAPS model. Guys, it's not a go to model in any winter situation. Did anyone stop and think maybe, just maybe, the NGP is out-to-lunch and completely wrong? That's the only red flag I would be tossing around right now. It certainly doesn't have full model support attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, I've been on wx boards since '97 and I don't think I ever recall a thread with so much analysis and detailed explanation of the NOGAPS model. Guys, it's not a go to model in any winter situation. Did anyone stop and think maybe, just maybe, the NGP is out-to-lunch and completely wrong? That's the only red flag I would be tossing around right now. It certainly doesn't have full model support attm. Ever since you've been on the wx boards, have you ever seen the FNMOC ranked high up with the other models as it currently is according to the current anomalies? Sorry, but the NOGAPS seems to be handling this La Nina winter better than it usually handles any winter situation - this I am sure of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL at the UKMET being in #1 position, give me a break. It has been miserable on the east coast this winter to date. A met from Mt. Holly was talking about it, not sure if it was rainshadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ever since you've been on the wx boards, have you ever seen the FNMOC ranked high up with the other models as it currently is according to the current anomalies? Sorry, but the NOGAPS seems to be handling this La Nina winter better than it usually handles any winter situation - this I am sure of. The NGP is likely doing very well out over the ocean which is the purpose it was designed for. Those charts can be very misleading....just because the UKIE (for example) is #1 recently, doesn't mean it's #1 in progging East Coast Storms. It could be excelling over in Europe instead. So, just because the NGP is ranked high, I don't believe it has excelled this winter. I can't remember a single ECS that it totally nailed and sniffed out the proper solution while standing alone in the face of other global guidance. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you do want to see the NOGAPS further west, as it has a south east bias.. if it is showing a low further NW than the other models, it is most likely flagging them and telling them to bring the storm closer to the coast.. Yes, but it's so far west it's rain right now. That's what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The NGP is likely doing very well out over the ocean which is the purpose it was designed for. Those charts can be very misleading....just because the UKIE (for example) is #1 recently, doesn't mean it's #1 in progging East Coast Storms. It could be excelling over in Europe instead. So, just because the NGP is ranked high, I don't believe it has excelled this winter. I can't remember a single ECS that it totally nailed and sniffed out the proper solution while standing alone in the face of other global guidance. Just my $.02 That's because you just totally disregard the model and don't even take a peak at it.. It nailed the jan. 11th storm before any other model had the storm as far west as the NOGAPS did but nobody on this forum even took a peak at it. I know this because I usually don't post on this forum - but I do lurk and I do follow wx models on my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's because you just totally disregard the model and don't even take a peak at it.. It nailed the jan. 11th storm before any other model had the storm as far west as the NOGAPS did but nobody on this forum even took a peak at it. I know this because I usually don't post on this forum - but I do lurk and I do follow wx models on my own. this is just plain wrong. people post it all the time, and for jan 11 it was given a lot of credit. i suggest you read through some of the threads for that storm. still its the nogaps, and there are much better alternatives, which is why its never mentioned in hpc or nws discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is just plain wrong. people post it all the time, and for jan 11 it was given a lot of credit. i suggest you read through some of the threads for that storm. still its the nogaps, and there are much better alternatives, which is why its never mentioned in hpc or nws discussions Is it really just plain wrong? Then why is the NOGAPS not getting credit for the other models bowing to it once again with tonights system which ALL other guidance has began to come west with once again, to a track the NOGAPS has been showing. Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is just plain wrong. people post it all the time, and for jan 11 it was given a lot of credit. i suggest you read through some of the threads for that storm. still its the nogaps, and there are much better alternatives, which is why its never mentioned in hpc or nws discussions There may be one or two individuals besides myself that post it....other then that I do not think hardly anyone posts it. Because of this many are not aware of how it has been doing. I do not have to look to far to find out how its been doing because all i have to do is check my blog. When one is aware of its bias ..it becomes a very useful tool... Take for example last nights 00z ECM ...remember where HPC had it tucked at that point and time for the upcoming event for the 25-28th? Well west basically touching LI and also amped up..I believe it was 988 mbs? Now, i am not suggesting that they used the NOGAPS...I am not that naive..though they have referenced the NOGAPS in there discussions ..so that means they do use & look at it. But , back to that position last night on that image... We know the GFS was east... We know the GGEM was east We know the UKMET was still well down south at 144 We know the ECM was hugging Hatteras at 144 and then move NNE from there... So we know that they used the ECM but we also see that the ECM also agreed with and showed a western solution... Yet the pattern does not support one according to what a lot of folks seem to be saying or does it? Its another piece of the guidance of which should be looked at and compared to the rest & when properly used with knowing its bias it becomes a strong forecasting tool. Stop and think every storm has ended up further N & W then the guidance has shown and at the last minute 24 hrs and under they then realize ..oh yes we should be NW..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is it really just plain wrong? Then why is the NOGAPS not getting credit for the other models bowing to it once again with tonights system which ALL other guidance has began to come west with once again, to a track the NOGAPS has been showing. Interesting indeed. what are you talking about? its posted/talked all the time all four runs. It got some credit last week and it was brought up this week. sadly, as good as it was 4 days out last week, it totally lost the storm from 3 days in. and in regards to tonight, the nogaps has been all over the place. anyway, too much time being spent talking about this model. enjoy this thread while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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