weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Discussion: The incredible stretch of active storms continue as we move towards the weekend as yet another winter storm has it's sights set on the Northeast. Now before everyone panics this storm does not appear as if it will be that big, and the snow should be very easy to move as it will be highly light in fluffy in nature. In fact, because the snow will be so light an fluffy in nature this make make it so we actually see a bit higher n the way of accumulations are snowfall ratios will be rather high, on the order of at least 15:1. What this means is that about every inch of liquid would translate to about 15'' of snow. We don't have to worry about that much though as this system appears as if it will only drop anywhere from 0.20'' to 0.50'' of liquid. Currently there is a system that is working into the United States through MT/ID and will then move eastward through the central Plains through the Ohio Valley region where as much as 4-8'' of snow will fall. As this system begins to work eastward towards our region a different system will be working in from Canada through the northern Plains, what can usually happen in these cases is the northern stream energy will intensify and become stronger than the southern stream energy, iit then begins to incorporate the southern stream energy which helps it to strengthen even more, as the system works towards the coast it begins to transfer it's energy and we see a major coastal storm develop. With the northern stream also being strong it also digs more into the Tennessee Valley and into the southeast and this can help the system take on a negative tilt, which further allows for storm intensification and also allows for a storm to track closer to the coast. It appears at this time that we will not see this sort of scenario play out. Currently most model guidance keeps the northern stream energy on the weaker side, not really intensifying until it is already over New England, they also keep the northern stream and southern stream energy's separated and we don't see any phasing take place, due to this the models are not showing a major snow event. The system does appear to be rather juiced though and this is seen by the fact that as this system is working through the central part of the country through the Ohio Valley it is expected to drop as much as 4-8''. With the system is also some very chilly Arctic air, and with the departure of this past storm we were rewarded with a renewed and refreshed Arctic airmass. Temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere, from the surface up past 20,000ft are very cold and. This will result in some very favorable snowfall ratios meaning the snow will be very fluffy in nature which allows it to accumulate at a much better rate. Now there is still time for things to change here, meaning a moderate to major snowfall event can't be totally ruled out, although I think at this time that scenario is not very likely, although trends will continued to be monitored. I think at this time we will see a light to moderate event. Forecast: Snowfall should first break out across the region anywhere from 2-5 AM with southwest areas seeing the first action and NE areas getting into the action later on. A period of light to moderate snowfall will occur with very large snow flakes which should quickly accumulate. Snowfall should then begin to taper off by 12-4 PM, with the storm ending closer to noon-1 PM in southwest areas and closer to 4 PM in northeast areas. Just about everyone should see a good 3-6'' of snowfall when all said and done, however, some spots up in eastern MA may end up seeing isolated amounts of 8-9''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks good wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks good wiz. x2 I was at 2-8 yesterday-- not sure on the qpf yet-- but today it looks like a 3-6er across CT with some higher amounts in parts of ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks! I just basically assumed 15:1 ratios and taking 0.25'' to 0.50'' QPF that ranged out to be 3-8''. Also counted in the fact that this will be a rather progressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good map blizz! You thinking widespread WWA's over CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good map blizz! You thinking widespread WWA's over CT? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Had some good laughs a good troll or two witht he reverend, passing the time hanging with the kids as the sickness in my home seems to never end this winter season. TIme to get serious. I have seen these type of artic front systems many times before, and certainly wont be my last. As moisture advects out of the deep south it will be forced up and over this boundary, on the other side is some truly cold air, the atmosphere will squeeze any available moisture out, this overunning alone will be enough for 3-6 inches of fluff over all of southern New England. If, if we are lucky enough to have a cyclone pass close enough to add lift and possibly get into a ccb, then 6-12 is very very possible in some locations especially across the south coast and eastern mass, coastal NH and also downeast Maine. Ratios will be excellent and snow growth should be better than average. Enjoy. BDR 7" DXR 6" KHIPPIE 6" BDL 6" KTOLL 7" Springfield 5" KDARTH 7" KGAY 7" BOS 8" Moosup 8" Taunton 8.5 Phil the thrill 9" ack waves 5.5" se coastal nh 8" downeast maine 7" greens 2-4 whites 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Final call...only changes were to eliminate the 2-5'' line from western MA (Berkshire county) down to extreme NW CT and up this area to 3-6'' and second change was to trim the 4-8'' contour east and expand it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Way way too kow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Final call...only changes were to eliminate the 2-5'' line from western MA (Berkshire county) down to extreme NW CT and up this area to 3-6'' and second change was to trim the 4-8'' contour east and expand it northward. Kevin> Too Conservative. Were going to be balls deep. 6-12" for all. >Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Way way too kow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Way way too kow The progressiveness of this system is a major concern for me to include higher totals, as stated in the opening discussion we will not be looking at extremely heavy snowfall rates either, at worse we see 1-1.5'' per hour rates. The heaviest of the snow will fall in a 3-5 hour window. I also feel the NAM QPF is overdone, especially for us in CT, take a look at the RH field at 700mb at 30 HR...nearly dry over CT while the 1000-500 mslp chart shows a decent amount of QPF over us...that is not happening, best lift is well NE of us. We see 3-6'' here in CT...maybe one or two people who have slanted rulers see 7'' or 8''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Had some good laughs a good troll or two witht he reverend, passing the time hanging with the kids as the sickness in my home seems to never end this winter season. TIme to get serious. I have seen these type of artic front systems many times before, and certainly wont be my last. As moisture advects out of the deep south it will be forced up and over this boundary, on the other side is some truly cold air, the atmosphere will squeeze any available moisture out, this overunning alone will be enough for 3-6 inches of fluff over all of southern New England. If, if we are lucky enough to have a cyclone pass close enough to add lift and possibly get into a ccb, then 6-12 is very very possible in some locations especially across the south coast and eastern mass, coastal NH and also downeast Maine. Ratios will be excellent and snow growth should be better than average. Enjoy. BDR 7" final..........6 DXR 6"final...........6 KHIPPIE 6"final....5 BDL 6"final............6 KTOLL 7"final.......8 Springfield 5" final....4.5 KDARTH 7"final...9 KGAY 7"final.........10 BOS 8"fianl..........9 Mt. Moosup 8"final....8 Taunton 8.5final..7.5 Phil the thrill 9"final...5 ack waves 5.5"final....3.5 se coastal nh 8" final....10.5 downeast maine 7"final.....11 greens 2-4final.....4-7 whites 3-5final......5-9 final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The progressiveness of this system is a major concern for me to include higher totals, as stated in the opening discussion we will not be looking at extremely heavy snowfall rates either, at worse we see 1-1.5'' per hour rates. The heaviest of the snow will fall in a 3-5 hour window. I also feel the NAM QPF is overdone, especially for us in CT, take a look at the RH field at 700mb at 30 HR...nearly dry over CT while the 1000-500 mslp chart shows a decent amount of QPF over us...that is not happening, best lift is well NE of us. We see 3-6'' here in CT...maybe one or two people who have slanted rulers see 7'' or 8''. Suit yourself. Bust low.. Just ignore the meso models, pattern recognition, and the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Suit yourself. Bust low.. Just ignore the meso models, pattern recognition, and the Euro Well I now see BOX went with the WSW and have 6-8'' for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I now see BOX went with the WSW and have 6-8'' for the entire area. And those amounts are probably too low 6-12 with loli's to 14 covers it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 And those amounts are probably too low 6-12 with loli's to 14 covers it This is a 5-8 HR event...no way we see 2''+ snowfall rates the duration of the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 When I saw the NAM QPF output I was tempted to increase totals, but then when I looked at the H7 RH fields I went against it...this thing will be moving so fast that I think the jackpot spots are eastern MA...hence why I have the highest totals occurring there, they will be much closer to the strongest lift as this thing is really getting together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is a 5-8 HR event...no way we see 2''+ snowfall rates the duration of the entire storm. It's a 10 hour event at least.. Don't say i didn't tell you so tomorrow Midnight to at least 10 or 11:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's a 10 hour event at least.. Don't say i didn't tell you so tomorrow Midnight to at least 10 or 11:00am The heaviest of the snow probably falls in a 3-5/4-6 HR window. Even the NAM, which gave us the most QPF doesn't even close off the 850mb circulation until it is already over the Cape...this thing gets going too late for CT to get more than 3-6'' widespread...maybe some spots see 7-8'' like in NE CT but 7''+ will not be widespread in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm going to say a fluffy 7" for mby (Concord NH area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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