bluewave Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I always like to use caution especially in dealing with ensemble means beyond the 6-10 day period. That being said,the 11-15 day GFS ensemble mean would represent an interesting break in the pattern near Alaska if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 last night's op has the cold easing in 10-14 days in the East. GFS is probably too early with the torching but I would not be shocked if February started off mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Move to more normal La Niña winter conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just in time for the January thaw...A good thaw means a good second half most of the time...Last year is a great example of the January thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Move to more normal La Niña winter conditions? Hopefully a short term break lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 just in time for the January thaw...A good thaw means a good second half most of the time...Last year is a great example of the January thaw... Very close to the same time that we saw it last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Very close to the same time that we saw it last January. last year the AO was negative from 11/29 to 1/16-17...Then negative again until 3/6... This year the AO went negative 11/18...One day positive 12/2...negative since...I hope the AO gets to last years lows in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 12Z GFS is bitter cold days 8-16, with no signs of any breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 12Z GFS is bitter cold days 8-16, with no signs of any breakdown. I wouldn't put too much weight on it... GFS 11-15 day forecast has been verifying rather horribly recently compared to the GFS Ens. and ECMWF Op./Ens. models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LC goes cold till end of January before possible thaw: http://m.examiner.com/exHouston/pm_68741/contentdetail.htm;jsessionid=0F6F1A3E5E3B4965B25E9B541FBCAF94?contentguid=tQvQFvBx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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