stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 check out the NAM vs 0z beginning at 72 hours. Much more amplified and looks better I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't see this going out to sea.. or at least by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The mesoscale models are far more amplified--inline with the SREF members. All have a much larger ridge building ahead of both the western trough and the southern wave. Some global guidance trending slowly towards that with an inverted trough developing over the northern plains as weak DPVA incites weak lift through the region. Extrapolating in time, seems like light snow will spread farther N than what guidance suggested a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Though much more amplified than most models. The nam is still rather separated with the energy in the west compared to the energy associated with the south west energy that has reached the upper south east at that time. Nam overall looks pretty good.. not sure what kind of surface reflection the deeper energy coming out of the north west digging into the plains at that time will spawn.. and how that will interact with the original low pressure system out east at the time. Rather complicated with the "two" areas of interest coming together in the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6z GFS run surface low track from hours 96-120 is not "bad" but generally precip is pretty light... especially compared to the 0z Nogaps and GGEM models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6z GFS run surface low track from hours 96-120 is not "bad" but generally precip is pretty light... especially compared to the 0z Nogaps and GGEM models... Upper levels better. H5 cuts off over western pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Upper levels better. H5 cuts off over western pa. It was only for that one time frame. Then it opens it back up. O_o Upper levels in general did look better.. but precip amounts were not all that impressive, like that matters at this time though. Southern states and the south east get a decent storm.... and they are much closer to that event than those further north that have to wait to see how the energy is going to congeal together along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 check out the NAM vs 0z beginning at 72 hours. Much more amplified and looks better I think http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/index_300_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The day 13-15 storm on the 6z Gfs is probably the best storm the model has ever spit out for the weenies. Raging blizzard with 1045 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6z ensemble surface low tracks are pretty comical. The op looks like a suppressed outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Did they go easy of 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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