January 2011 Thoughts: Area of Warmth Could Be Somewhat Limited

[donsutherland1]

After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are:

Albany: 6"-12"

Allentown: 3"-6"

Boston: 2"-4"

Caribou: 4"-8"

Concord: 4"-8"

Danbury: 3"-6"

Harrisburg: 1"-3"

Hartford: 3"-6"

Islip: 2"-4"

New York City: 2"-4"

Newark" 2"-4"

Philadelphia: 1"-3"

Pittsfield: 5"-10"

Poughkeepsie: 5"-10"

Providence: 2"-4"

White Plains: 3"-6"

Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential.

[CoastalWx]

Its funny how much more spread we have with this storm than the last one. It looks like more of the models favor OTS over cutter-- but that can change rapidly. At this point, the median of the solutions would probably be good for most of us lol.

My thoughts are for the 10-15 day. I didn't mean this next storm would be warm, if that's what you were implying.

[donsutherland1]

The 12z GFS lent support to the idea of a period of brutal cold for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and then later East (preceded by a storm, and IMO that event may have more cutting potential than the possible 1/11-13 event). If the details are right--and it's still way out there--Ottawa Blizzard could even see the type of winter cold he cherishes (subzero fahrenheit maximum temperature for Ottawa). Some sharp cold will likely penetrate Texas.

[CoastalWx]

The 12z GFS lent support to the idea of a period of brutal cold for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and then later East (preceded by a storm, and IMO that event may have more cutting potential than the possible 1/11-13 event). If the details are right--and it's still way out there--Ottawa Blizzard could even see the type of winter cold he cherishes (subzero fahrenheit maximum temperature for Ottawa). Some sharp cold will likely penetrate Texas.

Yeah, that's the one I meant. As the trough builds south, it has the potential of pumping up East Coast heights.

[donsutherland1]

Yeah, that's the one I meant. As the trough builds south, it has the potential of pumping up East Coast heights.

I misread earlier and apologize for my error. On that next one, our thoughts are similar.

[ayuud]

The 12z GFS lent support to the idea of a period of brutal cold for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and then later East (preceded by a storm, and IMO that event may have more cutting potential than the possible 1/11-13 event). If the details are right--and it's still way out there--Ottawa Blizzard could even see the type of winter cold he cherishes (subzero fahrenheit maximum temperature for Ottawa). Some sharp cold will likely penetrate Texas.

Could Buf get into some of this synoptic action you think?

[donsutherland1]

Could Buf get into some of this synoptic action you think?

It's possible. The storm that could precede the Arctic blast could provide Buffalo with synoptic snows. Of course, an inland track is not yet assured.

[A-L-E-X]

The 12z GFS lent support to the idea of a period of brutal cold for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and then later East (preceded by a storm, and IMO that event may have more cutting potential than the possible 1/11-13 event). If the details are right--and it's still way out there--Ottawa Blizzard could even see the type of winter cold he cherishes (subzero fahrenheit maximum temperature for Ottawa). Some sharp cold will likely penetrate Texas.

Don, it looks like the GFS also lends support to the idea that there might be 1 or 2 cutters prior to that arctic outbreak.

[donsutherland1]

Don, it looks like the GFS also lends support to the idea that there might be 1 or 2 cutters prior to that arctic outbreak.

After the possible 1/11-13 event, there might be a small window of opportunity for a system or systems to cut. I'm not quite sure whether there will be two systems ahead of the Arctic outbreak after the possible 1/11-13 event or just one system.

I misread the earlier messages and wrongly assumed that the discussion concerned the 1/11-13 event. Needless to say, probably as likely as a cutter(s) would be a system that has secondary coastal development (Miller B-type system).

[A-L-E-X]

After the possible 1/11-13 event, there might be a small window of opportunity for a system or systems to cut. I'm not quite sure whether there will be two systems ahead of the Arctic outbreak after the possible 1/11-13 event or just one system.

I misread the earlier messages and wrongly assumed that the discussion concerned the 1/11-13 event. Needless to say, probably as likely as a cutter(s) would be a system that has secondary coastal development (Miller B-type system).

No problems, Don, I thought the same. Looks like if it happens, it would be the system after that and there might be a coastal hugger after that one, just ahead of the arctic front (based on the 12z GFS.)

[CoastalWx]

No problems, Don, I thought the same. Looks like if it happens, it would be the system after that and there might be a coastal hugger after that one, just ahead of the arctic front (based on the 12z GFS.)

Sorry Alex and Don, my fault for not communicating properly.

[donsutherland1]

Sorry Alex and Don, my fault for not communicating properly.

I don't believe it was a communications issue. There are so many systems modeled, that it was an oversight on my part. Then again, I'd rather have an active pattern with opportunities than a dull and dry one.

[A-L-E-X]

Sorry Alex and Don, my fault for not communicating properly.

I don't believe it was a communications issue. There are so many systems modeled, that it was an oversight on my part. Then again, I'd rather have an active pattern with opportunities than a dull and dry one.

I agree with Don-- three systems over the span of 10 days can confuse anyone lol. Im going to blame the pattern rather than the models

[tacoman25]

Some morning thoughts:

1. Even as there remains a lot of uncertainty with respect to the possible Norlun trough event--par for the course for such events--my confidence is rising that the heaviest qpf (0.50" or more) will likely cover the northern Hudson Valley (probably from Newburgh/Poughkeepsie northward) into the Capital District and then possibly eastward into westernmost Connecticut, westernmost Massachusetts, and perhaps the southwestern corner of Vermont/northeast corner of Pennsylvania. A large area in Maine and eastern New Hampshire could also see such snowfall. 0.25" to perhaps 0.40" qpf will probably extend down into parts of New York City (best prospects range from Midtown Manhattan northward), the lower Hudson Valley (including all of Westchester County), the western half of Connecticut and probably most of Massachusetts. I am concerned about a consistent signal for much less qpf for northern Vermont and possibly Cape Cod. Somewhere in the areas outlined for the heaviest snow, amounts in excess of 10" are possible.

2. Next week should see a strong shot of cold invade the Pacific Northwest. Seattle will likely see several days with low temperatures in the teens (possibly one day with a low below 15°F). The last time Seattle had a temperature below 20°F was December 10, 2009 (16°F). The last time Seattle had a temperature below 15°F was December 20, 2008 (14°F). The coldest reading since 1970 was 7°F (February 4, 1989) and there have been only two single digit lows since 1970 (December 23, 1983 at 9°F and the February 4, 1989 7°F temperature).

3. Near mid-month +/- a few days, extreme cold will likely push into the Northern Plains and then expand eastward.

4. After mid-month, severe cold should reach the East Coast, possibly preceded by a storm. At least one day of single digit lows is likely in such cities as Philadelphia and New York City. The last time the temperature fell below 10°F in either city was January 17, 2009 when the temperature fell to 6°F in both New York City and Philadelphia.

5. The great AO- regime that is currently underway will persist through at least the first 20 days of the month.

Actually, Don, Seattle hit 14 this past November.

[donsutherland1]

Actually, Don, Seattle hit 14 this past November.

Thank you for that correction, Tacoman25. It was a complete oversight on my part that I missed the extreme November cold.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Don, what are your current thoughts about the Ottawa/eastern Ontario region. Judging from a map JB showed toda, we will still be above normal in a week to ten days while pretty much all of the US shivers.

[donsutherland1]

Don, what are your current thoughts about the Ottawa/eastern Ontario region. Judging from a map JB showed toda, we will still be above normal in a week to ten days while pretty much all of the US shivers.

Right now, it increasingly appears that the cold will come in two shots, the second being the stronger of the two. Between the cold shots (January 14-16), it is possible that milder briefly covers southern Ontario, including Ottawa.

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW regarding the blocking....the Euro weeklies that came out tonight show a huge west based -NAO persisting through the first week of February. They aren't always accurate after the first two weeks, but they have been by far the best this winter so far at showing the sustained blocking when many ensemble suites have tried to break it down.

[tacoman25]

FWIW regarding the blocking....the Euro weeklies that came out tonight show a huge west based -NAO persisting through the first week of February. They aren't always accurate after the first two weeks, but they have been by far the best this winter so far at showing the sustained blocking when many ensemble suites have tried to break it down.

So what kind of pattern overall do they show for the next few weeks?

[ORH_wxman]

So what kind of pattern overall do they show for the next few weeks?

It appears the coldest anomalies stay in the east in the longer term. There's a pretty decent AK and GOA vortex that gets going for the latter part of January and into early February which would probably keep the western US somewhat moderated.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Right now, it increasingly appears that the cold will come in two shots, the second being the stronger of the two. Between the cold shots (January 14-16), it is possible that milder briefly covers southern Ontario, including Ottawa.

so you still expect some sustained below normal readings up here despite the persistant Greenland block?

[Isotherm]

It appears the coldest anomalies stay in the east in the longer term. There's a pretty decent AK and GOA vortex that gets going for the latter part of January and into early February which would probably keep the western US somewhat moderated.

That'd be incredible if we saw blocking persist through February. Although the way this winter's going, nothing would surprise me.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Don, can you think of another winter where there was such a sustained Greenland block or are we heading into unprecedented territory?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

That'd be incredible if we saw blocking persist through February. Although the way this winter's going, nothing would surprise me.

you can pretty much cancel winter in the high arctic if it persists.

[donsutherland1]

That'd be incredible if we saw blocking persist through February. Although the way this winter's going, nothing would surprise me.

I suspect that the block will relax for a time, even if it persists at least into the last week of the month (or perhaps longer). Hence, the cold should not be a 2 or 3-day affair. The spell of below normal readings could last for a week or longer in Ottawa.

Finally, the AO was negative for 102 consecutive days from December 25, 1959 through April 4, 1960.

[donsutherland1]

My final forecast for the 1/7-9/2011 event:

Albany: 4"-8"

Allentown: 2"-4"

Boston: 2"-4"

Caribou: 3"-6"

Concord: 3"-6"

Danbury: 3"-6"

Harrisburg: 1"-3"

Hartford: 3"-6"

Islip: 2"-4"

New York City: 2"-4"

Newark: 2"-4"

Philadelphia: 1"-3"

Pittsfield: 4"-8"

Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"

Providence: 2"-4"

White Plains: 3"-6"

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I suspect that the block will relax for a time, even if it persists at least into the last week of the month (or perhaps longer). Hence, the cold should not be a 2 or 3-day affair. The spell of below normal readings could last for a week or longer in Ottawa.

Finally, the AO was negative for 102 consecutive days from December 25, 1959 through April 4, 1960.

Very interesting Don. Take a look at February 1960 in Ottawa. Mild, but very snowy. Note the snow depth at the end of the month.

http://www.climate.w...0&Month=2&Day=1

Also, take a look at Quebec City the same month:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=5251&Year=1960&Month=2&Day=1

[donsutherland1]

Very interesting Don. Take a look at February 1960 in Ottawa. Mild, but very snowy. Note the snow depth at the end of the month.

http://www.climate.w...0&Month=2&Day=1

Also, take a look at Quebec City the same month:

http://www.climate.w...0&Month=2&Day=1

Hopefully, Winter 2010-11 will bring at least an extended snowy period to Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec.

[Snow Wizard]

Several GFS runs in the past 2 days have brought a mother lode of snow to Seatle. This looks very promising right now. There may be a lot of happy people on this forum over the next two weeks!

[Snow Wizard]

you can pretty much cancel winter in the high arctic if it persists.

I hope this isn't bad news for the sea ice next summer.