Pittsburgh Area Fall 2026

[Ahoff]

Guess this should have been started.

Looks like Fall is here.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

On 10/2/2026 at 4:54 PM, Ahoff said:

Guess this should have been started.

Looks like Fall is here.

Yes-it’s been a glorious few days and few more to come!

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Also-I’ve been reading the ENSO discussions about super El Niño and wondering how this is going to affect our winter….

[colonel717]

[Ahoff]

11 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Really mixed bag.  Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good.

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Really mixed bag.  Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good.

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 10/7/2026 at 9:10 AM, colonel717 said:

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

Picture of me waking up from summer hibernation getting ready to track some snow!

[colonel717]

Maybe some flakes next weekend.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day.

Yesssssss praying for a low electric bill coming up!!

[RitualOfTheTrout]

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

[colonel717]

11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

Lets hope that happens with the snow this winter. 

[colonel717]

First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands. 

 

 

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 hours ago, colonel717 said:

First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands.

Looks like the GFS is in scenario 2s camp:

The big question then becomes what will happen with a late-week
system, of which, ensembles are still highly uncertain. The main
driver of uncertainty is the timing and placement of a digging
eastern tough. In scenario 1, the trough digs east of the area
sometime Thursday thru Saturday. In this scenario, the area
would be warmer than ensemble means and less unsettled. In
scenario 2, the trough barrels down directly into the area with
a strong cold front (favored Friday into Saturday) and
potentially bring some rain, winds (approaching advisory
criteria, at minimum), and even lake- enhanced snow/rain shower
potential into Saturday. In scenario 3, the trough may drop to
into the Midwest sometime Friday/Saturday with rain ahead of it,
and bring a longer period of cool and windy conditions as the
upper low struggles to rejoin the flow into next weekend. If
truly maximized, scenario 2 would be the most impactful due to
wind gusts risks and lake effect snow potential (2-10%
probability for locations to see >= 3" of snow).

[CoraopolisWx]

8 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

Widespread overperformer. 
The back edge of the heavier precip held together longer than the NWS anticipated. 
Although guidance showed 1.5-2.0” for the metro. 
 

[Ahoff]

18 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Widespread overperformer. 
The back edge of the heavier precip held together longer than the NWS anticipated. 
Although guidance showed 1.5-2.0” for the metro. 
 

Hopefully of sign of winter storms this year.

[TheClimateChanger]

Rather surprised by the intensity of the rain tonight. Didn’t think it would be this heavy.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Senior night at the football game starting at 5:30-by kickoff at 7 I was freezing! It had to have dropped 10 degrees

[Ahoff]

Officially, first 32 degree temperature this morning.

 

[colonel717]

Chad Merrill senior meteorologist and long-range expert at AccuWeather says “we’re looking at a very warm winter ahead.”

https://www.audacy.com/kdkaradio/news/local/pittsburgh-winter-forecast

Merrill breaks it down month by month:

End of October:

Expect a cold snap around Halloween that lasts into early November before warming up again.

November:

“November will bring a couple of cold days and probably the first snow of the season, sometimes in the middle-to-later part of November.”

December:

Merrill expects temperatures to be three-to-four degree above average.

“It will be one of the warmest months of the winter season.”

January:

Two-to-three degrees above average

February:

A degree or two above average.

That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold, or even freezing at times, but Merrill doesn’t expect a long, sustained deep freeze this winter.

Snow forecast:

20 to 35 inches of snow is expected, which is well below the average of around 44 inches.

“We are looking at three to five days with two inches of snow, last year, over seven,” said Merrill.

He adds there will be 20 to 30 days of getting a tenth of an inch. That’s lower compared to the 39 we had last year.

Merrill says the reason for the above average temperatures is “very strong” El Nino.

With that El Nino will mean more moisture in our area, and with above average temperatures, that means rain, with Merrill saying there could even be some thunderstorms in the winter.

With above average temperatures expected, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold streaks. Merrill expects colder air to come though in time for Christmas heading into 2027.

[colonel717]

Weather Sentinel "Big developments are beginning to emerge in the northern hemisphere. It appears as if we may be looking at a weakening of the polar vortex. This is a very anomalous situation as most El Niño winters do not feature this kind of event.

This would literally throw a monkey wrench into the seasonal forecasts . This anticipated stretching and weakening of the polar vortex is exactly what happened last winter . Combining a weak vortex or an out right splitting of the vortex with this El Niño could trigger catastrophic winter storms over the Northeast .

Personally I’m not super surprised this is occurring or may occur. One of my analog seasons was the 2009/10 one . This was because of a El Niño coupled with a negative phased Atlantic oriented ocean . I also believe the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation is playing into this and maybe the actual cause of this vortex stretching out and weakening.

No two El Ninos are ever alike . Even the 82/83 and 97/98 were different from each other . So how will this change the winter ? Number one is the anticipated moisture flow could be affected and be colder despite the warm Pacific air getting sucked into the US . More likely than not this could be a very volatile situation and may spawn some nasty severe weather over the south east not to mention snow in the north.

Another developing situation is the Siberian snow pack . It is progressing at a pace not seen since 2015 and is more on par with 2009 by all accounts. This snow pack is also anticipated to grow exponentially in the next few weeks. This matters as this region is the source of most of the cold air that eventually makes its way into the US in winter . More snow cover equals more cold .

If you like snow then the stars may be aligning for a big season this year. This could very well range from west to east . More than anything it looks volatile. I think this may lead to more snow getting into the I-95 corridor and possibly further south . At this stage I believe the Mid Atlantic will be the bullseye. I will be updating this information as it becomes available."