Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is the most potential we've seen for a snowy winter in many years. That's enough to keep me interested. How much snow would it take at the airports this winter to bring the 2011-2026 annual average back up to "normnal"? Lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 hours ago, CAPE said: My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina. 100%. It also correlates strongly to snowfalls in excess of 6". The AO runs in odd cycles. Seems like 10-13 year cycles or something close to that. Ive been suspecting the cycle is flipping the last 2 winters. It would go a long ways in helping us this winter if its predominantly negative. Makes a huge difference with ninos. Just because the nino is basinwide or east based doesn't automatically wreck us. Having a +AO will though lol. Based on everything I'm seeing, I'm probably more optimistic about this winter than the vast majority on here. Wont be a cold one like last year I dont think but a persistently suppressed storm track with friendly high latitudes will likely deliver some legit fun even if it melts quick lol. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Not sure if this Capital Weather link was already shared, but Boom or Bust seems to be the theme for the upcoming winter.... https://www.capitalweather.com/boom-or-bust-five-experts-reveal-their-dc-winter-snow-predictions/ Accuweather needs to bring JB back onboard. And Matt Rogers can suck it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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