donsutherland1 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Highest daily values for each month and highest monthly and seasonal averages on ERA-5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14 Author Share Posted September 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Interesting timing of the release date on this new study since we could at least see our first monthly global temperatures near +2°C. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9 nature articles article Article Open access Published: 25 March 2026 Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming1,2,3,4,5,6,7. Yet, current approaches for identifying spatially consistent climate outcomes are limited, with worst-case global climates typically communicated via the average of climate model projections at high global warming levels, such as 3 °C or 4 °C above the preindustrial era8,9. Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. We derive these results by identifying sector-specific, spatially consistent potential high- and low-impact global climate outcomes through spatially averaging projected sector-relevant climatic impact-drivers across key global regions. Our approach can easily be adapted to a wide range of sectors to support the improvement of sector-specific climate risk assessment and to inform climate policy. As global warming approaches 1.5 °C (ref. 10), these findings underscore the urgency of rapid mitigation to limit warming well below 2 °C, as even a 2 °C world may entail severe impacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Globally September will end up cooler than August, due to a cool Southern Hemisphere paced by Antarctica. In strong contrast to September 2023 when a very warm Antarctica contributed significantly to "gobsmacking" warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The spike in global satellite sea surface temperatures is similar in magnitude to 2023. This September is 0.15C warmer than Sept 2023 and 0.14C warmer than the peak in Jan 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 https://bsky.app/profile/khaustein.bsky.social/post/3mwqu6hrps22s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 2 hours ago, chubbs said: https://bsky.app/profile/khaustein.bsky.social/post/3mwqu6hrps22s 26 is also notably colder than 23 in the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 10 hours ago, GaWx said: 26 is also notably colder than 23 in the Arctic. Yes, compensated by more NHEMI warmth in the US, and the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific this year. The antarctic had a bigger impact on global and SHemi temperatures than the arctic because it has strong anomalies and its influence extends to nearby sea ice and ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 The Euro was fairly close this month. It had forecast a global mean average temperature of 1.67 C in September. The September average came in a +1.63 C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 CERES net radiation (available thru July) is behaving as expected in a nino, topping out as global temperatures rise and outgoing radiation increases. The 3-year average indicates that net radiation has stabilized at a high level in the past couple of years. Rapid global warming will continue until there is a drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15 Author Share Posted October 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 17 Share Posted October 17 GFS (and euro) forecasting a spike in global temperatures this week. Could approach the previous daily record set in Nov 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 05:13 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:13 PM Interesting look for the SH so early in their recovery season ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The preliminary global mean surface temperature for October 31 was 14.980C. That would break the daily mark of 14.831C from 2024. October 2026 finished as the warmest October on record. Following the record warm October, 2026 ranks as the second warmest year on record (ERA-5). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The preliminary global mean surface temperature for October 31 was 14.980C. That would break the daily mark of 14.831C from 2024. October 2026 finished as the warmest October on record. Following the record warm October, 2026 ranks as the second warmest year on record (ERA-5). I'm curious what GISS graphical layout looks like in 10 or so days... My hunch is that there'll be a relative min round New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Excellent ECMWF global temperature forecast for October. MONTH MEDIAN 90% RANGE SEAS5 DIRECT DRIVING Oct 2026 1.72 1.56-1.88 1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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