Mountain West Discussion

[mayjawintastawm]

Let's see if we can shake off some drought the rest of this Spring-Summer-Fall. What do you all think?

[Chinook]

On 4/4/2026 at 4:18 AM, mayjawintastawm said:

Let's see if we can shake off some drought the rest of this Spring-Summer-Fall. What do you all think?

The recent CPC says there is about a 20% chance of a super El Nino for the winter (Nov-Jan). It's at the end of their forecast graphics. So how's a super El Nino for getting rid of the drought? Pretty good chance to have large rainfall in the southern USA. Things have not gone well for the West and Southeast, two huge parts our country.

[Chinook]

Recent rainfall and snowfall for you guys in Colorado. NWS snowfall analysis says it snowed above 6000-7000ft. The Rocky Mountain national park views have some snow visible above 11000ft today. Frisco/Breckenridge had some snow in town.

[frontranger8]

Disappointing week here. Had less than .15" total.

[smokeybandit]

Models again showing rain and snow Tuesday for the Front Range. How will Lucy pull the football on this one?

[ValpoVike]

13 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Models again showing rain and snow Tuesday for the Front Range. How will Lucy pull the football on this one?

My experience of many years in the foothills - early May storms excite me. But that is a foothills perspective and setups like this in May usually have a steep accumulation gradient. All or nothing usually within 10 miles. 

[smokeybandit]

GFS keeps pumping out hefty totals in true GFS form.

[Chinook]

The ECMWF has mostly light rain for you guys but the GFS and Canadian have snow and 37 in the daytime this week. It's getting a bit late in the year for snow in the daytime.

[smokeybandit]

12z NAM says let's do this. Even the Euro is now showing a few inches for the Front Range.

 

[ValpoVike]

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS agrees.  Either both are off their rocker, or the foothills and divide are gonna get rocked.  Either way, the models all seem to be trending in the right direction and I am starting to get cautiously optimistic.

[smokeybandit]

Euro is now generally on board, too, though its snow maps look kind of goofy around the Palmer Divide

[frontranger8]

Somewhere above 6000' is gonna get buried. Doubt I get more than an inch or two here in the city, but at least it looks like a much needed soaker.

[ValpoVike]

The 12z Euro went bonkers too. 

[smokeybandit]

18z NAM even bigger than 12z

 

 

[gallopinggertie]

Today was the earliest ever 91-degree high at PDX (Portland, OR). This beats the previous record by three days. Pretty odd to have a heat advisory on May 3rd.

[Chinook]

I checked the SREF and GEFS for you guys. The SREF has 1 foot for Fort Collins-Loveland airport. That's nuts. I don't how it gets that cold. It would be roughly equivalent to May 1, 2013 when it snowed 1 foot at Fort Collins. I'm hoping you guys get wet somehow. Not sure about the whole freezing the gardens and crops type stuff.

[ValpoVike]

16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I checked the SREF and GEFS for you guys. The SREF has 1 foot for Fort Collins-Loveland airport. That's nuts. I don't how it gets that cold. It would be roughly equivalent to May 1, 2013 when it snowed 1 foot at Fort Collins. I'm hoping you guys get wet somehow. Not sure about the whole freezing the gardens and crops type stuff.

I am just outside of Estes and it is trending towards quite a dumping. But May has had some big storms in the past. May 17th 2017 was particularly impressive, and up here I picked up 40” over the course of 2 days. This storm likely won’t come close, but someplace in Larimer County could get 20”+ as it looks currently. 

i have a ton of trees on my property that I worry about with May snows, but this year that feels like an easy trade.