2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

A fetch that large, with duration that long would create long period energetic swells. Periods over 14 seconds are rare on the east coast (usually only associated with major hurricanes) They can cause major beach erosion in comparison to more typical mid period (10-13) second swells we typically see during east coast coastal storms.
So if this comes to fruition it could have major coastal impacts. Especially on the outer banks where several areas are already in trouble.


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[GaWx]

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. 

 The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA!

 Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

I am just a little surprised at the degree of blocking and amplitude given the very strong El Nino.  A strong STJ from the El Nino usually prevents patterns like this (moves things along) and we already saw the STJ quite apparent that impacted Isaias.  That was unusually strong STJ trough for the Gulf Coast for early Oct.

12z ECMWF looks like classic omega!  What is this, May?

I will say this. given the non0-linear nature of the atmosphere and its associated oscillations, something coming in being as the strongest on record (El Nino), unexpected things can and do happen that do not fit "what we thought should happen."  I mentioned this before, it was assumed before that in very strong El Nino, Cali gets soaked and the Pac NW is dry.  Well the 2015-16 event, the exact opppsite occurred!