wdrag Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 23 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track . looks understated to me wind/wind damage, CF, excessive rainfall for this pattern (NJ/LI, sCT). NBM very conservative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives Odd sucker! Just go to shows the true vagaries of these things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, AccuChris said: 18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track . Given the RRFS is new, I don't know how it handles TCs. I asked the modeling group if it handles TCs well. They said it should, but they said ti defer to the HAFS and the like. This event will be a good test ast least when it comes to ET to ST/T transition. The RRFS is about 10 mb deeper than the other models, and shows a tight inner core pressure gradient eventually. That indicates tropical structure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is a much "warmer" type ET to ST/T suggested transition. The ET surface low has developed in a more tropical-type atmosphere. As noted earlier, the low is located S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line, and as it develops, a pool of 576 closes off over it. Also, initial ET development to ET peak to ST/T transition can occur very quickly at times. The system off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts in mid-January 2023 went ET to ST rather fast (personally I think this was tropical and a hurricane), developing a distinct, persistent eye and remarkably deep convection for a winter atmosphere. See sat loops here: https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231 If this can occur in January, there is no reason to think this can not occur here in September over significantly warmer SSTs and a less overall sharp baroclinic environment! The point being extraordinary/outlier patterns often result in extraordinary/outlier individual wx events, so we need to adjust/adapt for that and think outside the box in such cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 200 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 22.1W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops. RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW: TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26 1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31 0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30 1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27 0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23 1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23 0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22 1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22 0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22 1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26 1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26 0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29 1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30 0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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