2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[wdrag]

23 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track


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looks understated to me wind/wind damage, CF, excessive rainfall for this pattern (NJ/LI, sCT).  NBM very conservative.

[NorthHillsWx]

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

Odd sucker!  Just go to shows the true vagaries of these things.

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, AccuChris said:

18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track


.

Given the RRFS is new, I don't know how it handles TCs.  I asked the modeling group if it handles TCs well.  They said it should, but they said ti defer to the HAFS and the like.  This event will be a good test ast least when it comes to ET to ST/T transition.

The RRFS is about 10 mb deeper than the other models, and shows a tight inner core pressure gradient eventually.  That indicates tropical structure.

[vortex95]

This is a much "warmer" type ET to ST/T suggested transition.  The ET surface low has developed in a more tropical-type atmosphere.  As noted earlier, the low is located S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line, and as it develops, a pool of 576 closes off over it.

Also, initial ET development to ET peak to ST/T transition can occur very quickly at times. The system off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts in mid-January 2023 went ET to ST rather fast (personally I think this was tropical and a hurricane), developing a distinct, persistent eye and remarkably deep convection for a winter atmosphere.  See sat loops here:
https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231
 

If this can occur in January, there is no reason to think this can not occur here in September over significantly warmer SSTs and a less overall sharp baroclinic environment!
 

The point being extraordinary/outlier patterns often result in  extraordinary/outlier individual wx events, so we need to  adjust/adapt for that and think outside the box in such cases.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm.