2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.

[NavarreDon]

We have orange,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


.

[vortex95]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.

2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35

I don't know if the RRFS can handle TCs properly.  This is a good question for the modelers. 

The NAM never was designed for TCs we know.  The RRFS seems overdone, esp. given by 72 hr a strong deformation shear zone get established along the nrn Gulf Coast, and the system gets torn apart aloft.

The HRRR through 48 hr does show it becoming a TD, but again, I am not sure how good mesoscale models not specifically designed for TCs, such as the HAFS and HWRF, do here.  The 2m wind field looks choppy and pock-marked on the HRRR by 36 hr.  The HWRF from 18z today shows sig development having is 992 mb by 60 hr, but that appears overdone.  GFS/ECMWF suggest weak TD status before the environment becomes unfavorable.
 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad 
surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America.  The 
associated winds are currently light, and the shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  However, gradual 
development of this system is possible, and it could become a 
tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or 
north-northwestward during the next few days.  Interests along the 
Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia 
should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to 
bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several 
days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
  

[GaWx]

By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N  84.9W

 

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 19.07.2026   24  27.5N  84.9W     1010            25

    0000UTC 20.07.2026   36  28.1N  85.2W     1006            28

    1200UTC 20.07.2026   48  28.2N  86.0W     1004            30

    0000UTC 21.07.2026   60  28.1N  86.1W     1002            33

    1200UTC 21.07.2026   72  28.4N  86.1W     1000            38

    0000UTC 22.07.2026   84  29.2N  86.2W      997            50

    1200UTC 22.07.2026   96  29.6N  86.9W      998            51

    0000UTC 23.07.2026  108  29.3N  87.8W      996            52

    1200UTC 23.07.2026  120  28.9N  88.8W      999            44

    0000UTC 24.07.2026  132  28.7N  90.0W      999            40

    1200UTC 24.07.2026  144  29.0N  92.0W     1001            36

    0000UTC 25.07.2026  156  29.3N  94.2W     1004            37

    1200UTC 25.07.2026  168              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

 The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of 
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued 
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly 
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast 
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor 
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required for portions of the area later today. In 
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions 
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[GaWx]

I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha: